The clash between Trump and Musk has ignited crypto prediction platforms, which have become an unexpected scoreboard for the feud.
Last week, Musk and President Trump's heated tweet battle monopolized the market's attention. A tit-for-tat that led to a rift between the two.
After leaving the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk began venting about X. Elon accused Trump of being ungrateful and called the new budget law , the “Big Beautiful Bill,” a “disgusting abomination” that is destined to “bankrupt America” due to the sharp increase in public debt.
The rift came to a head on Thursday, when the tycoon, during a meeting at the White House with the German chancellor, expressed his displeasure with Musk, who until recently had been one of his most trusted advisers.
Traders are betting on everything, even on a peace before July
Tensions escalated further when Musk responded “Yes” to a post on X calling for Trump’s impeachment. The spat, in addition to leading to a rift between the two, inflamed crypto prediction platforms, which became an unexpected scoreboard for the feud.
On Polymarket alone , over half a million dollars has been bet on Trump being impeached in 2025. Other smaller markets are tracking the odds of everything from Musk unfollowing him on X to the possibility of them making peace by July.
The bets show how the crypto community is following the feud not only out of curiosity, but also for the potential economic repercussions.
Musk’s speculation about a possible centrist party pushed the odds to 20%. A simple rumor about a phone call with Trump sent bets on a reconciliation soaring, only to collapse after the president publicly denied it.
Even the most surreal bets — like the 4% chance that Trump will get Musk arrested — reveal traders’ hunger to turn every dramatic turn of events into a betting event.
Will Musk stop following Trump on X?
Many traders have been focused on a symbolic act: whether Elon Musk removes Donald Trump from his X followers list by July.
In recent sessions, the odds have fluctuated between 8% and 12% , a sign that many do not believe it, but that they do not completely exclude the possibility that it could happen.
A variant tied to the possibility of it happening in June attracted about $57,000 in volume, modest by Polymarket standards but substantial for a simple symbolic gesture.
Order book data shows spikes in activity after each public barb: When Trump called Musk “the man who lost his mind,” Yes shares briefly rose, only to level off after sellers stepped in.
Trump's X Account Suspension Odds Collapse
While an unfollow might seem plausible, account removal is another story. A bet on Polymarket that Trump’s account X would be suspended by Friday started with a 3.9% probability, but within two days it dropped to 1%.
The most followed bet…
The most popular thread in the feud remains the possibility of Donald Trump and Elon Musk making peace. On Polymarket, the “public reconciliation before July” contract has stabilized around 24%, but continues to swing sharply after each new piece of news.
When Politico reported a private phone call between the two, “Yes” bids skyrocketed; hours later, when Trump said on TV that Musk had “lost his mind,” the deal collapsed under a barrage of “No” orders.
For traders, a reconciliation between Trump and Musk is uncertain, while sincere repentance is considered virtually impossible. The Polymarket platform, in fact, lists the possibility of Trump apologizing to Musk by June 9 at just 1%.
In contrast, the market that was speculating on Trump publicly insulting Musk—a contract open at 12%—exploded when the “he’s lost his mind” quote appeared on television. The news turned the prediction into an implicit certainty for market participants.
Just a day after Elon Musk floated the idea of a centrist political party, releasing an X-Poll that garnered more than five million votes with about 80 percent in favor, prediction markets have re-evaluated the possibility.
Will Elon Musk Start a New Political Party?
On Polymarket, the contract on the possibility that Musk will found a new US political party by December has reached 17%. But the option that he will form it more quickly, by June, stands at a mere 5%.
This gap reveals the strong skepticism of the market regarding the concrete and rapid realization of a political enterprise of this complexity.
Musk could, in effect, upend America’s bipartisan status quo. Market sentiment is heavily influenced by his every decision: favorable polls or supportive reposts push “Yes” bids higher, while the odds drop every time Musk shifts focus to his SpaceX or Tesla upgrades, a sign of a less politically focused position.
While a Musk-led party remains speculative, the 2025 Donald Trump impeachment deal has become one of the hottest deals on Polymarket in terms of money raised.
Volume is currently above $800,000 and odds have risen to 11%, a modest increase after Musk amplified calls for Trump’s impeachment over a GOP spending bill.
By comparison, impeachment deals for sitting presidents rarely exceed the 15% threshold in the absence of a public scandal. The fact that a double-digit figure appears so early in the term makes it both unusual and significant.
There's talk of a lawsuit: will the next round between the two take place in court?
While the Trump-Musk feud has so far played out on TV and social media, there is a contract on Kalshi that gives Trump about an 18% chance of legal action against Elon Musk in 2025.
While this may seem like a low probability, it is high enough to attract steady influxes of bets whenever the president hints at possible legal retaliation.
Traders cite several theoretical sticking points – from defamation charges to alleged interference in business – as possible paths to litigation, although none of these avenues have yet been formally pursued.
Prison Sentence Betting Shows Appetite for Extreme Outcomes
The wildest prediction is whether Trump will succeed in putting Musk behind bars during his term. On Polymarket, “yes” shares briefly rose to 6.8% before reason prevailed, bringing the figure back to about 4%.
While traders now consider a hold a long shot, the contract continues to command attention, with volume around $60,000 on Polymarket.
Why are bets on the Trump-Musk feud important?
Every price move in the markets tied to the Trump-Musk feud moves money, bets on reputation, political risk, and even the possibility — however remote — of a showdown in court. To outsiders, it’s a barometer of public sentiment, far more responsive than traditional polls.
The data is clear: Few believe in dramatic changes like a suspension from X or an official apology. But many are giving credence to bigger changes—a Musk-branded political party, a new impeachment attempt, a carefully planned lawsuit. In short, traders aren’t paying attention to the drama, but are bracing for profound shocks that could change the system.
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