bluechip

#EconomicAnalysis | After a powerful rally that set record highs across the board, Goldman Sachs’ Head of Macro Trading, Bobby Molavi, believes there are “signs that last week marked the top, and that this week is the start of a roll over.”
What are these warning signs?
1. “Everyone on the boat” A state of uncomfortable overbuying
Institutional investors: Buying risk (long gross risk) while also hedging (long hedge), which hides the reality that they are heavily accumulating at the single-stock level.Retail investors: Buying “everything.”CTAs (trend-following funds): Back to buying, but not aggressively.Hedge funds: Increased their long positions last week.
The striking conclusion (quoting a colleague):
“Investors are buying excessively and uncomfortably… while at the same time wishing they had bought more.”
This is the classic psychological setup before a market peak: a mix of greed and fear, driven by a desperate desire not to miss out on further gains.
2. The “Exhaustion Candle” A troubling technical signal
The second chart shows the performance of Goldman Sachs’ high-beta, high-momentum stock basket—the riskiest and most market-sensitive names.
What do we see?
A daily candle (orange circle) resembling a Shooting Star or Hanging Man.
Why is this concerning?
Because it appeared after a strong rally. Buyers tried to push prices higher, but sellers stepped in aggressively, dragging prices back down to close near the open.
This is a clear sign of exhaustion and the beginning of seller dominance.
#conclusion
We are now seeing a rare cluster of negative signals:
Psychological: A state of “uncomfortable overbuying” across all investor classes.Technical: The emergence of a bearish reversal candle in the riskiest segment of the market.
Together, these factors significantly raise the probability that the market has reached a short-term top, and that we are about to enter a phase of correction or pullback.

#BlueChip #BTC

◀️ Catching every peak and sub-bottom
◀️ Timing corrections to the exact minute
◀️ Pinpointing a failure level within just $400
◀️ Predicting a correction 10 minutes in advance and it happened

🔹 I work across 4 screens:
1⃣ 1-minute → Price action with session timing
2⃣ 15-minute → Stop-loss setup
3⃣ 1-hour → Market direction
4⃣ 4-hour → Confirming the broader view

Why share this publicly? It’s a show of strength and a message to those who criticized me: focus on your own work, the gap in skill and knowledge is clear 💯.
🚫Going forward: I won’t be giving live, session-by-session updates publicly anymore since it’s too distracting. My focus will shift to the private channel.
But:
✔️ I’ll still provide public market updates and coin analysis.
✔️ Focus on your craft. Results speak louder than words.
🙏 Wishing you all success.

On-chain analysis reveals Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase following the Federal Open Market Committee-driven rally that peaked near $117,000. Long-term holders have realized 3.4 million Bitcoin in profits, while ETF inflows slowed significantly.
The current drawdown from the $124,000 all-time high to $109,700 represents just 12% compared to 28% cycle drawdowns or 60% declines in previous cycles. This aligns with diminishing volatility trends across macro cycles and resembles the steady 2015-2017 advance.
Realized cap, measuring cumulative capital investment, has risen to $1.06 trillion through three distinct waves since November 2022. This cycle absorbed $678 billion in net inflows, nearly 1.8 times larger than the prior cycle's $383 billion.
The profit realization ratio shows that in each wave, profit-taking exceeded 90% of coins moved, marking cyclical peaks. Having stepped away from the third such extreme, probabilities favor a CoolingPhase ahead, according to historical patterns.
Long-term holder distribution reached 122,000 Bitcoin monthly, while ETF net flows collapsed from 2,600 Bitcoin daily to nearly zero around the FOMC meeting. This combination created fragile market conditions setting up weakness.
Spot Volumes spiked during post-FOMC selling as forced liquidations overwhelmed thin order books, accelerating the decline. Futures open interest fell from $44.8 billion to $42.7 billion as leveraged long positions were flushed out.
Options markets repriced aggressively with skew surging and puts in high demand, signaling defensive positioning. One-week implied volatility jumped from 1.5% to 17%, revealing aggressive demand for downside protection.
The market sits in peak gamma conditions where small price movements force aggressive dealer hedging. This structure amplifies sell-offs while capping rallies, skewing near-term volatility risk to the downside.
Unless institutional and holder demand realigns, deeper cooling risks remain high. The macro structure increasingly resembles Market Exhaustion after unprecedented capital rotation and long-term holder distribution.
(COINMARKETCAP)
#BlueChip