失眠聚合群

Thank you all for watching me

#币安人生 , the listing of Chinese coins has triggered a new wave of FOMO in the market, but unfortunately this token, like all Binance new listings, experienced a sharp drop shortly after listing.

People originally expected Binance Life to reach at least $300 million in market cap after listing, but reality fell short, failing to even reach $150 million. The 12-hour trading volume was only $47 million, significantly below expectations, indicating low market enthusiasm.

The current price of $0.13 has not seen a significant surge compared to before the Binance listing.

Similarly, tokens such as #哈基米 and #恶俗企鹅 also experienced minor declines. This is mainly due to Binance Life's actual price increase falling far short of expectations after its listing on Binance. The market is still debating whether it will be listed on futures, but sentiment has clearly cooled down.

If Binance does not continue to pump the price, Binance Life is likely to follow the typical path of a Binance new coin: consolidation → sustained decline. The listing of Binance Life likely reflects CZ and He Yi's recognition that the market has become extremely tough. They launched several Chinese-themed tokens to capture market liquidity and bring users back to the BNB chain.

Benson said, if in an industry, people who flatter others succeed more easily than those who actually work, then that industry likely has little future.

Now on Twitter, it's easier to gain attention by praising CZ and He Yi, while genuine builders and long-term holders are more likely to fail. Over the past year, Binance's supported projects have not truly helped retail investors make money.

#伊朗 Mobile internet faces renewed throttling, parts of the country plunged into digital darkness

Since January 8th, mobile internet in many areas of Iran has suddenly become extremely slow and nearly inaccessible.

This is because protests have been spreading nationwide over the past two weeks, affecting more than 100 cities, and it's now the 12th day.

Last June, during the missile exchanges with Israel, they used the same excuse: 'The country's situation is special, temporary nationwide internet restrictions are in place.'

The Iranian government has long had a tradition of cutting off internet access to control situations.

Monitoring data from #cloudflare宕机 also shows:

Iran's IPv6 network traffic dropped by over 98%
IPv6 share fell from the original 12% to just 1.8%

NetBlocks reports that connection quality has declined across multiple Iranian operators. Tehran and other cities are entering a state of digital blackout.

Now, many Iranian netizens are openly sharing posts on social media, specifically calling on #Musk to enable Starlink access for Iran
😂😂😂

Trader Pigeon's recent view:

During this rebound, he's been searching for a strong core asset to place a significant bet on. So far, $SOL has shown the strongest performance among BTC, ETH, and SOL, with the cleanest technical structure, and it could potentially rise to $160 first.

If the market momentum continues, and BTC manages to reach $100,000, it's not out of the question to see prices climb as high as $200.

He has always believed that price always leads the narrative. Now, when it's hard for everyone to find a clear bullish reason for SOL, this 'lack of consensus' phase is often the ideal time to enter the market.

By the time all the reasons are clearly laid out, the rally may already be halfway done.

The only risk to watch is whether $BTC can hold above $90,000. If it does, this pullback may just be a washout, leaving room for further upside afterward.

In December, the Central Second Hospital held a meeting to discuss whether personal cryptocurrency trading constitutes a crime, and what constitutes a crime.

In simple terms:

1. For money laundering, it's not just about the outcome; it matters whether you were aware or not. Money laundering without knowledge does not count as a crime.

2. "Completed money laundering": as long as you take action to hide the money, it counts as the crime being completed. For example, if you exchange black U for ETH using a mixer, that is considered money laundering.

3. Simply holding or trading cryptocurrency personally is generally not recognized as illegal business activity.

If you are a "brick mover" or an OTC trader, and you know that others want to exchange RMB for USD, and you help them through USDT, you are challenging the country's foreign exchange control.

This may be classified as "disguised foreign exchange trading". If the amount is large and the circumstances are serious, it can be recognized as an accomplice to illegal business activity.

The United States received #比特币 , Cambodia received economic development, China received #陈志

#Prince Group Chairman #陈志 and two other Chinese citizens were arrested and deported back to China on Tuesday

In recent years, fraud camps have rapidly spread across Southeast Asia, deceiving victims into participating in fake investment projects. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimates that global fraud victims lost between $18 billion and $37 billion in 2023.

In October last year, U.S. prosecutors filed criminal charges against Chen Zhi, accusing him of leading a transnational cyber fraud ring and using his other businesses to launder illicit proceeds, while tolerating or even approving the use of violence against employees. The indictment stated that Prince Group once boasted that its fraud operations generated $30 million in daily profits.

The U.S. Treasury Department and the UK Foreign Office had previously imposed sanctions on Chen Zhi, and law enforcement agencies have seized his assets, including real estate worth at least $100 million and cryptocurrency assets valued at approximately $14 billion.

The fraud organization defrauded at least 250 Americans, with losses amounting to millions of dollars, including one victim who lost $400,000 in cryptocurrency. According to U.S. Treasury data, Americans lost at least $10 billion to Southeast Asian fraud in 2024.

The UK has frozen Chen Zhi's businesses and assets in the country, including

a mansion worth €12 million

an office building in London worth €100 million

Why is the 2026 crypto market considered a 'explosive start'?

In the first 5 days of 2026, #比特币 rose about 6.5%, #以太坊 nearly 10%, and Cardano nearly 25%, while in 2025 as a whole, Bitcoin dropped about 6%, Ethereum dropped about 10%, and Cardano dropped about 60%. This means Bitcoin outperformed the entire previous year's performance in just 5 days, indicating a clear shift in market sentiment and capital direction, rather than just a short-term rebound.

Today's discussion focuses on a core logic every long-term investor must understand—uncertainty. It is the price of opportunity.

Every opportunity comes with uncertainty: investing uncertain whether it will be profitable, entrepreneurship uncertain whether it will succeed, confessing uncertain whether it will be rejected. But precisely because of uncertainty, opportunities exist.

If everything were certain, there would be no opportunity. For example, confessing to someone who is married and happily living their life can be 100% certain to be rejected—this certainty means zero opportunity.

The logic behind investing, entrepreneurship, and social mobility is the same. Government jobs offer stable income, but almost no chance of social mobility. Entrepreneurship may have only a 10% success rate, with 90% failing, but precisely because of this uncertainty, there is a chance to earn money that can change one’s life.

The same applies to the investment market. Cryptocurrencies carry high risk and large volatility, but if you can tolerate the volatility and consistently make sound decisions, you have the chance to achieve financial breakthrough.

The core methodology is the 'Double or Nothing' investment strategy. All investment decisions are essentially probability problems. To assess whether an asset is worth long-term investment, ask just one question: Is the probability of doubling greater than the probability of going to zero?

Take Bitcoin as an example: currently at $93,000, doubling would mean $186,000, while the other end is theoretically zero. As long as you believe the chance of doubling is greater than the chance of going to zero, it is a positive expected value asset—even if that probability is only 53% or 55%. Consistently making positive EV decisions over the long term will ultimately lead to profit.

This is like playing poker: the strongest starting hand, AA, wins against any other hand about 80% of the time, yet still loses 20% of the time. But when you have AA, you should still go all-in, because in the long run, you are the winner.

The same logic applies to the investment market. If you believe the probability of Bitcoin increasing 3x or 4x is no less than the probability of it going to zero, then in 100 opportunities, you should invest in all 100.

Binance announces the launch of the #白银 futures contract, with up to 50x leverage

Official launch on January 7 at 10:00 (UTC)

Contract unit: 1 troy ounce of silver (priced in USD)

Settlement asset: USDT

Minimum price movement (Tick Size): 0.01

Minimum order quantity: 0.001 XAG

Minimum notional value: 5 USDT

Funding rate cap: +2.00% / −2.00%

Funding rate settlement frequency: every 4 hours

Maximum leverage: 50x

Trading hours: 7×24 hours

According to a Wednesday report by the Financial Times, Chinese officials are reviewing Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)'s $2 billion acquisition of the artificial intelligence platform #Manus, as the deal may violate China's technology export control regulations, potentially giving Beijing some leverage in this closely watched transaction.

The deal was announced last week, representing a relatively rare case amid the escalating competition between the U.S. and China over advanced technologies:

A U.S. company acquiring a cutting-edge AI startup with Chinese roots.

Citing two informed sources, the Financial Times reported that China's Ministry of Commerce has begun assessing whether Manus's move of employees and technology to Singapore, followed by its sale to Meta, requires an export license under Chinese law.

The report noted that the review is still in its early stages and may not escalate into a formal investigation. However, if a license is deemed necessary, Beijing could potentially influence the transaction process, and in extreme cases, even block the deal.

Trump is now basking in the joy of stealing 50 million barrels of oil from #委内瑞拉 ,

completely forgetting he promised to announce the new Fed chairman this week...

114514 broke 80%

The world's largest oil reserves country #委内瑞拉 changed overnight, while #油价 instead fell.

The core logic behind this is that the fundamental supply and demand dynamics of the global crude oil market have fundamentally changed. As crude oil supply growth exceeds demand, market concerns about oversupply have intensified, with oil prices expected to drop more than 18% in 2025, marking the steepest annual decline since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Venezuela holds approximately 17% of the world's #石油 reserves, approximately 303 billion barrels, valued at up to $17 trillion, surpassing Saudi Arabia. Although Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, its current oil production is less than 1 million barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of global oil production.

Oil exports are the main source of income for Venezuela. Following U.S. sanctions on oil tankers and the seizure of two batches of oil shipments last month, Venezuelan oil exports are currently in a state of stagnation. Chevron's oil shipments to the U.S. are not subject to restrictions, as it holds an operating license issued by the U.S. government, and thus continued transporting for a time. However, shipping data as of January 4 shows that even Chevron's shipments have stopped since January 1.

The state-owned oil company PDVSA has begun to reduce crude oil production, and under the ongoing U.S. oil blockade, export volumes have almost dropped to zero, with PDVSA's storage capacity exhausted. PDVSA's measures include shutting down oil fields or clusters of wells, as onshore inventories continue to rise, and the diluents used to mix Venezuelan heavy crude for shipment have been depleted.

Although the Venezuelan situation will not cause a significant impact on the energy market in the short term, the escalation of geopolitical tensions may raise risk premiums, combined with concerns about potential supply disruptions, which could provide upward momentum for crude oil prices. If the situation between the U.S. and Venezuela continues to escalate, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil could potentially rise to around $60 and $63 per barrel, respectively.

The U.S. actions against Venezuela also reflect a desire for the country's rich oil resources. If the U.S. gains control, its oil companies would increase crude oil production in Venezuela, thereby boosting the total global supply of crude oil. Therefore, for the oil market, digesting the U.S.-Venezuela tensions is just a matter of time.

This year's oil prices still maintain an average of $56 per barrel for Brent crude oil and $52 per barrel for WTI crude oil, with expectations unchanged.

Coinbase Premium Index has returned to normal

The market is calm! Clear skies are here!

Yesterday, there was a fascinating incident in China's public relations circle.

There's a Weibo blogger known as 'The Amazing Bear'.

This bear constantly attacks various brands and promotes Huawei every day.

After Xiaomi changed its PR team, they tried to sign him to keep quiet.

Once this news leaked, everyone started boycotting Xiaomi—signing him turned fans into critics.

That evening, Xiaomi's PR team apologized, claiming it was a supplier issue.

It's the same in the crypto world—some exchange is also trying to use annual contracts to silence critics.

But the result might be more critics, because attacking your company can actually earn money.

The best approach is to ignore them and let them say whatever they want.

The real solution is to find more KOLs who praise you and encourage them to share and reference your content.

It's easy to understand why the Japanese yen coin is soaring. It feels exactly like our Binance Life during September and October. Foreigners probably felt the same way about us back then.

I originally thought that a market cap of $10 million with the number #114514 was the absolute limit, but now it's already reached $50 million.

The main reasons are two:
1. Policy利好 (favorable policies)
One reason is that the Japanese government plans a major overhaul of #加密税 , cutting the current maximum miscellaneous income tax rate from 55% down to a uniform 20%, treating it the same as stocks. This is expected to be included in the 2026 tax reform blueprint.

2. Player FOMO (fear of missing out)
Another reason is that Japanese players are just starting to explore memecoins, full of confidence and enthusiasm. Previously, liquidity was mainly dominated by Western and Chinese-speaking communities, with little community effect from Japan.

But now, Japanese crypto traffic is extremely high. I randomly check a $114514 token with 5 million in volume, and it's completely normal. This shows that Japanese players' liquidity is about to surge.

If $114514 truly breaks through and attracts the Japanese community, it will bring in fresh new capital. By winter break, I believe liquidity is continuously flowing back into the market...

Looking forward to the arrival of spring for #MEME .

Binance listing logic: Which is more likely to explode—high热度 projects or low-expectation ones?
1. Listing high热度, widely-recognized projects
After #BSC boosted the Chinese meme coin trend, listing high热度, widely-recognized Chinese projects has become a common strategy across alpha, contracts, and spot trading. For example, the current $币安人生 $哈基米 $4 $恶俗企鹅

Although #BinanceLife and #Hakimi can drive momentum, they usually result in dumping after listing—especially BinanceLife, where the name 'Binance' severely limits the meme's growth potential.

The more people expect a project, the more likely it is that everyone is already on board, increasing the chance of a crash after price spikes.

Especially for memes tagged with 'Binance,' their growth space is inherently limited, making sustained innovation difficult.

2. Listing low-consensus, unexpected projects
There are many examples: #VulgarPenguin, BNBHolder entering alpha, small-cap $Neiro, $ACT, and $PNUT launching on spot,

These are projects with little prior expectation, suddenly appearing on alpha or spot.

Because few people are already invested, they trigger widespread FOMO and artificial bull runs.

For instance, when VulgarPenguin launched, its market cap was below $1 million; PNUT's market cap was only $122 million before listing, ACT was $19 million, and Neiro (small-cap) was $15 million. After listing, they surged by 1,094%, over 2,000%, and 7,594% respectively.

Thus, we can see Binance's core logic: low expectation and market emptiness create greater room for artificial bull runs.

For Binance, creating an artificial bull market doesn't require the hottest projects. A small project with a few million dollars in market cap might work better, as there's no prior accumulation, making it easier to pump the price.

3. Probability analysis

Based on this logic, Strategy 2 has a higher probability of success because it generates greater FOMO and price surges, attracting trading volume.

However, this doesn't mean high热度 projects have no opportunity. Strategy 1 is more about following market trends, brand visibility, and traffic, combined with marketing. High热度 projects have strong consensus, but if expectations are too high and there's no pump after listing (like BinanceLife), community dissatisfaction can easily arise.

Binance's listing logic is essentially a carefully designed commercial game—its core goal is maximizing platform trading fees and user engagement, not purely supporting high-quality projects.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

High speculation, not investment advice. DYOR

#以太坊 Gas Price has set the lowest record since the mainnet launch. And it continues to break records.

At certain times, it can even be lower than 0.03 Gwei.

Don't forget, this year we also need to continue expanding the blockchain.

#委内瑞拉 How many Bitcoins are there?

1. Venezuela may hold 600,000 Bitcoins #比特币
Currently, CoinGecko tracks the official government Bitcoin reserve data, of which 240 BTC is publicly verifiable.

However, based on gold and oil speculation, Venezuela may possess 600,000 Bitcoins.

In 2018, Venezuela liquidated about 73 tons of gold (approximately 2.7 billion USD), and intelligence agencies speculate that this amount of money could correspond to about 400,000 Bitcoins at the time of BTC price range.

Subsequently, under the backdrop of long-term sanctions, Venezuela exported a large amount of oil settled through USDT, which was then converted into Bitcoin to avoid freezing, leading to a total estimated amount close to 600,000 $BTC.

2. Will Venezuela's 60 billion USD Bitcoin shadow reserves trigger a massive crash?

First of all, these are all hypothetical shadow reserves based on intelligence sources and logical inferences, with no on-chain data to corroborate.

Taking a step back, even if this batch of BTC truly exists, it does not have the realistic conditions for a short-term crash.

Bitcoins of this level, if they exist, are unlikely to be sitting on exchanges; they are likely structured in a national-level multi-signature, cold wallet, and permission-divided structure.
Even if the U.S. intervenes, the realistic path would only be freezing, judicial tug-of-war, and long-term games.

Bitcoins of this magnitude are highly politicized; their huge quantity means selling them does not benefit the U.S. at all.

Although it can temporarily solve U.S. finances, it can also crash the market. For the U.S., holding them has more strategic value than selling.

If it is a national-level multi-signature structure, even if key individuals are arrested, it may not be possible to piece together the complete private key. Of course, whether Maduro is tough enough is another question.

So I am more inclined to think that if this batch of BTC exists, it is more like a standoff asset rather than a chip that can drop at any time.

$币安人生 Cut meat for a big household

#币安人生 Related whale addresses started intensive deliveries at noon

The current market sentiment is that the index is rising, many meme coins have collectively doubled from the bottom, #哈基米 has risen to 50m, fluctuating in the range of 40-50, but life seems to be stuck

Binance life represents Binance, and also represents the Chinese imitation coin, Binance is very likely to worry that if Binance life goes on spot, it will end, hitting the market, losing confidence, and further affecting the market liquidity, this is Binance's concern

What is happening now is more like a test of faith, big holders are leaving, washing emotions, filtering out short-term speculators, leaving those who truly identify with the narrative. But no matter what, I firmly believe in Binance life and $哈基米

Looking at a longer cycle, September and October 25 years is indeed a year of awakening for Chinese memes

Binance life and Hakimi actually represent the shared memories of this generation, the birth of any new meme cannot be separated from the backdrop of these two memes, whether it's secondary creation or comment sections. It will become a common memory and cultural anchor point for this generation.