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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why BTC Could Plummet to $60,000 by Mid-May 2025
As of May 3, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $96,318.33, near its all-time high of $109,464.94 set in January. Despite a bullish run fueled by institutional adoption and ETF inflows, mounting sell-side pressure, technical warning signs, and macroeconomic uncertainties point to a sharp correction. This post outlines why BTC could fall to $60,000 within the next two weeks, by May 17, 2025.
Recent Price Movement (January 1, 2025 – May 3, 2025)
Bitcoin started 2025 at ~$99,992.85, riding momentum from its December 2024 breakthrough above $100,000. A peak of $109,464.94 on January 20 reflected optimism from $1.9 billion in ETF inflows and a crypto-friendly U.S. administration. However, a -30% correction in March brought prices to $76,000, triggered by disappointment over the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’s lack of clarity. A V-shaped recovery in April pushed BTC to $92,800, and by May 3, it consolidated around $96,318.33, with a market cap of $1.91 trillion.
The weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern, but on-chain and technical signals suggest this rally is losing steam, setting the stage for a significant pullback.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerging
Several technical indicators support a bearish outlook:
Macro Rising Wedge: Analysts on X note a macro rising wedge pattern, with a blow-off top target at $155,000. Such patterns often precede sharp corrections, with a potential bottom at $65,000–$69,000. A drop to $60,000 aligns with weekly wicks into the $50,000s, a plausible overshoot in a panic sell-off.Wave 3 Decline: A recent X post indicates BTC has entered wave 3 of a decline, starting at $95,000. Unless BTC reclaims $95,000 and pushes above $98,100, a bearish trend could accelerate, targeting lower support levels.RSI Overbought Risk: The RSI at 70.46 nears overbought territory, signaling potential exhaustion. Historical cycles show corrections often follow RSI peaks above 70, especially during the Acceleration Phase.Support Levels: Key supports lie at $87,250 (CME gap), $80,000 (March low), and $74,000 (predicted by some analysts). A break below $87,250 could trigger a cascade to $60,000, a psychological level last seen in early 2024.
On-Chain Data: Sell-Side Pressure Intensifies
On-chain metrics reveal growing distribution:
Spot Volume Delta: Over April 27–29, spot volume delta turned sharply negative (-$193.4M on April 29), indicating aggressive selling and weakening spot demand. This suggests profit-taking or buyer exhaustion, common precursors to corrections.LTH Distribution: Long-term holders are distributing at a 350% unrealized profit margin (~$99,900). As BTC approaches this level, sell-side pressure increases, requiring robust demand to absorb supply. Current data shows demand is faltering.Liquidity Contraction: Since March, liquidity has contracted in on-chain and futures markets, reducing the market’s ability to sustain high prices during sell-offs.
Macroeconomic and Sentiment Risks
Several external factors could catalyse a drop:
Regulatory Uncertainty: While the U.S. administration is crypto-friendly, regulatory risks persist globally. Past crackdowns (e.g., China’s 2021 ban) caused severe price drops. Any unexpected regulatory moves could trigger panic selling.Inflation and Monetary Policy: Upcoming U.S. CPI data (expected to ease to 2.6%) and Federal Reserve decisions could signal tighter monetary policy. Bitcoin’s historical correlation with M2 suggests depreciation under such conditions.Market Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index at 65 (Greed) and 63% green days over the past 30 days indicate over-optimism, often a contrarian signal for corrections. X posts reflect mixed sentiment, with some analysts warning of a wider market correction.
Pathway to $60,000
A plausible scenario for BTC to reach $60,000 by May 17:
Week 1 (May 4–10): Negative spot volume delta and LTH selling push BTC below $87,250, breaching the CME gap. Panic selling accelerates as the 50-day MA fails to hold, driving prices to $80,000.Week 2 (May 11–17): Failure to reclaim $87,250 confirms the bearish trend. The macro rising wedge breaks down, targeting $65,000–$69,000. Liquidation cascades and stop-loss triggers overshoot to $60,000, a level with historical support from early 2024.
This 37.7% drop aligns with historical corrections (e.g., 75% in 2017–2018) and the Acceleration Phase’s volatility, where sharp pullbacks are common before or after blow-off tops.
Counterarguments and Risks
Bullish factors could delay or prevent this drop:
ETF Inflows: Continued inflows ($3.3 billion in late April) could absorb sell-side pressure, stabilizing prices above $90,000.Institutional Support: Firms like BlackRock and MicroStrategy may defend key support levels, limiting downside.Halving Cycle: Post-halving bullishness (April 2024) typically extends into Q2, potentially pushing BTC to $100,000+ before correcting.
However, the confluence of technical breakdowns, on-chain selling, and macroeconomic risks outweighs these factors in the short term, favouring a rapid decline.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s rally to $96,318.33 masks underlying weaknesses: aggressive selling, LTH distribution, and technical overextension. A break below $87,250 could trigger a cascade to $60,000 by May 17, 2025, driven by panic selling and liquidity contraction. Investors should monitor RSI, spot volume delta, and key supports at $87,250 and $80,000. While bullish catalysts like ETF inflows remain, the risk of a sharp correction looms large. Stay cautious and conduct your own research before trading.
$BTC #BTC60K
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Recent Price Movement (January 1, 2025 – May 3, 2025)
Bitcoin started 2025 at ~$99,992.85, riding momentum from its December 2024 breakthrough above $100,000. A peak of $109,464.94 on January 20 reflected optimism from $1.9 billion in ETF inflows and a crypto-friendly U.S. administration. However, a -30% correction in March brought prices to $76,000, triggered by disappointment over the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’s lack of clarity. A V-shaped recovery in April pushed BTC to $92,800, and by May 3, it consolidated around $96,318.33, with a market cap of $1.91 trillion.
The weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern, but on-chain and technical signals suggest this rally is losing steam, setting the stage for a significant pullback.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerging
Several technical indicators support a bearish outlook:
Macro Rising Wedge: Analysts on X note a macro rising wedge pattern, with a blow-off top target at $155,000. Such patterns often precede sharp corrections, with a potential bottom at $65,000–$69,000. A drop to $60,000 aligns with weekly wicks into the $50,000s, a plausible overshoot in a panic sell-off.Wave 3 Decline: A recent X post indicates BTC has entered wave 3 of a decline, starting at $95,000. Unless BTC reclaims $95,000 and pushes above $98,100, a bearish trend could accelerate, targeting lower support levels.RSI Overbought Risk: The RSI at 70.46 nears overbought territory, signaling potential exhaustion. Historical cycles show corrections often follow RSI peaks above 70, especially during the Acceleration Phase.Support Levels: Key supports lie at $87,250 (CME gap), $80,000 (March low), and $74,000 (predicted by some analysts). A break below $87,250 could trigger a cascade to $60,000, a psychological level last seen in early 2024.
On-Chain Data: Sell-Side Pressure Intensifies
On-chain metrics reveal growing distribution:
Spot Volume Delta: Over April 27–29, spot volume delta turned sharply negative (-$193.4M on April 29), indicating aggressive selling and weakening spot demand. This suggests profit-taking or buyer exhaustion, common precursors to corrections.LTH Distribution: Long-term holders are distributing at a 350% unrealized profit margin (~$99,900). As BTC approaches this level, sell-side pressure increases, requiring robust demand to absorb supply. Current data shows demand is faltering.Liquidity Contraction: Since March, liquidity has contracted in on-chain and futures markets, reducing the market’s ability to sustain high prices during sell-offs.
Macroeconomic and Sentiment Risks
Several external factors could catalyse a drop:
Regulatory Uncertainty: While the U.S. administration is crypto-friendly, regulatory risks persist globally. Past crackdowns (e.g., China’s 2021 ban) caused severe price drops. Any unexpected regulatory moves could trigger panic selling.Inflation and Monetary Policy: Upcoming U.S. CPI data (expected to ease to 2.6%) and Federal Reserve decisions could signal tighter monetary policy. Bitcoin’s historical correlation with M2 suggests depreciation under such conditions.Market Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index at 65 (Greed) and 63% green days over the past 30 days indicate over-optimism, often a contrarian signal for corrections. X posts reflect mixed sentiment, with some analysts warning of a wider market correction.
Pathway to $60,000
A plausible scenario for BTC to reach $60,000 by May 17:
Week 1 (May 4–10): Negative spot volume delta and LTH selling push BTC below $87,250, breaching the CME gap. Panic selling accelerates as the 50-day MA fails to hold, driving prices to $80,000.Week 2 (May 11–17): Failure to reclaim $87,250 confirms the bearish trend. The macro rising wedge breaks down, targeting $65,000–$69,000. Liquidation cascades and stop-loss triggers overshoot to $60,000, a level with historical support from early 2024.
This 37.7% drop aligns with historical corrections (e.g., 75% in 2017–2018) and the Acceleration Phase’s volatility, where sharp pullbacks are common before or after blow-off tops.
Counterarguments and Risks
Bullish factors could delay or prevent this drop:
ETF Inflows: Continued inflows ($3.3 billion in late April) could absorb sell-side pressure, stabilizing prices above $90,000.Institutional Support: Firms like BlackRock and MicroStrategy may defend key support levels, limiting downside.Halving Cycle: Post-halving bullishness (April 2024) typically extends into Q2, potentially pushing BTC to $100,000+ before correcting.
However, the confluence of technical breakdowns, on-chain selling, and macroeconomic risks outweighs these factors in the short term, favouring a rapid decline.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s rally to $96,318.33 masks underlying weaknesses: aggressive selling, LTH distribution, and technical overextension. A break below $87,250 could trigger a cascade to $60,000 by May 17, 2025, driven by panic selling and liquidity contraction. Investors should monitor RSI, spot volume delta, and key supports at $87,250 and $80,000. While bullish catalysts like ETF inflows remain, the risk of a sharp correction looms large. Stay cautious and conduct your own research before trading.
$BTC #BTC60K
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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BTC H4 top divergence
#BTC☀ After 3 weeks of continuous growth of 25% from the price range of $52,600 to $66,500.
Frame D has touched the trendline and is showing signs of reversal with the Doji candlestick pattern.
- The H4 frame has a peak divergence, showing that the bullish momentum has weakened and there are signs of reversal and retesting the $58,000 price zone.
- BTC Dom khungD has touched the trendline and is reversing
Some #Altacoins have adjusted from 7 to 10%
The above conditions suggest that #Altacoins will dump slightly next week.
Frame D has touched the trendline and is showing signs of reversal with the Doji candlestick pattern.
- The H4 frame has a peak divergence, showing that the bullish momentum has weakened and there are signs of reversal and retesting the $58,000 price zone.
- BTC Dom khungD has touched the trendline and is reversing
Some #Altacoins have adjusted from 7 to 10%
The above conditions suggest that #Altacoins will dump slightly next week.
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#BTC☀ 60k area I always post because #btc60k has very positive moves for you guys to open positions. But when the market is entering the 67 70k area, it is just an observation, guys. This week #altsesaon is very hot, guys, so calm down. If you pump, there are still many opportunities. I have a few words for you guys.
#BTC☀ BTC is stopping positively with low vol. You guys can see that btcxau is returning to the fibo61 zone, reacting quite positively, this gives us more data about the positivity of the market.
Many altcoins are having quite positive rsi, showing very good buying power from the market. You guys continue to have motivation for a strong pum season.
The altcoins you guys can refer to
#AI: #sei #pepecoin🐸
Many altcoins are having quite positive rsi, showing very good buying power from the market. You guys continue to have motivation for a strong pum season.
The altcoins you guys can refer to
#AI: #sei #pepecoin🐸
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🔥The second reason why the whole market increased yesterday and decreased more strongly today🔥
🧐 Onchain is the most irreplaceable and authentic data. However, I was too skeptical with every plan because of small fluctuations in the market without looking at volume from a larger perspective.
📝 Every plan we create has a solid reason and if we believe in it, we will learn the lesson because going through a plan is the motivation to create a reason to enter an order. Bias, prejudice and conservatism will kill us soon.
#btc60k #marketdump #pepe #baihoctumeme #baihoc
🧐 Onchain is the most irreplaceable and authentic data. However, I was too skeptical with every plan because of small fluctuations in the market without looking at volume from a larger perspective.
📝 Every plan we create has a solid reason and if we believe in it, we will learn the lesson because going through a plan is the motivation to create a reason to enter an order. Bias, prejudice and conservatism will kill us soon.
#btc60k #marketdump #pepe #baihoctumeme #baihoc
#eth is fomo too much?
- Look at the chart and the blue upper part is the money flowing into the exchange (for atlcoin, you understand that there is a high possibility that it will be transferred from the blockchain wallet to the exchange to SELL). On the contrary, the green part below is consolidation (long-term), which can be buying or stalking.
______
What happens to selling atlcoin to buy eth?
______
As everyone knows, the money flow usually flows in the direction of topcap-> midcap-> lowcap and the average monthly increase in performance is that the average top 10 atlcoins are only 2 times higher than topcoins (according to cryptokoryo statistics on dune).
_____
The fomo effect will occur when eth outgoing creates 2 near-equilibrium bottoms, meaning about 2 strong price increases of eth (about 4k7-5k3) will create a bubble burst effect. This will make it difficult for eth to maintain a good price when fomo is excessive during this period. Of course, looking at the holders, you know that most of the mid-range fish collect, not the large fish (because the cash flow of most funds will flow into new atlcoin in defi, depin, blockchain,... systems). From another perspective, the fund also stalks or lends eth to buy atlcoin at this time to increase the ROI rate for the fund.
_______
If you really love eth, wait for 2400-2700 to buy more. Don't rush to buy at a stage where there are no new people pushing eth at this stage. The market only increases when more people join later ^^
- Look at the chart and the blue upper part is the money flowing into the exchange (for atlcoin, you understand that there is a high possibility that it will be transferred from the blockchain wallet to the exchange to SELL). On the contrary, the green part below is consolidation (long-term), which can be buying or stalking.
______
What happens to selling atlcoin to buy eth?
______
As everyone knows, the money flow usually flows in the direction of topcap-> midcap-> lowcap and the average monthly increase in performance is that the average top 10 atlcoins are only 2 times higher than topcoins (according to cryptokoryo statistics on dune).
_____
The fomo effect will occur when eth outgoing creates 2 near-equilibrium bottoms, meaning about 2 strong price increases of eth (about 4k7-5k3) will create a bubble burst effect. This will make it difficult for eth to maintain a good price when fomo is excessive during this period. Of course, looking at the holders, you know that most of the mid-range fish collect, not the large fish (because the cash flow of most funds will flow into new atlcoin in defi, depin, blockchain,... systems). From another perspective, the fund also stalks or lends eth to buy atlcoin at this time to increase the ROI rate for the fund.
_______
If you really love eth, wait for 2400-2700 to buy more. Don't rush to buy at a stage where there are no new people pushing eth at this stage. The market only increases when more people join later ^^
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$BTC UP TO 60K 🚀🚀🚀
Most people predict $BTC will go down this week, but on the contrary today $BTC is increasing towards 60,000, will people go against the trend or join Bullish? Stay alert, don't be provoked by news posts that reverse direction, don't forget to set stop loss and take profit
#BTC
#TipsTradingFutures
#CryptoExplorerFiesta
#btc60k
Most people predict $BTC will go down this week, but on the contrary today $BTC is increasing towards 60,000, will people go against the trend or join Bullish? Stay alert, don't be provoked by news posts that reverse direction, don't forget to set stop loss and take profit
#BTC
#TipsTradingFutures
#CryptoExplorerFiesta
#btc60k
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⚠️ Beautiful recovery point to cut long hair $BTC is 68725 ⚠️
👉 Brothers, if you are mentally confused, you can refer to your plan and cut $BTC immediately to leave the market for a while to stabilize your psychology.
👉 Standing outside and waiting is a good option to have a broader perspective because currently it is also heavily sideways in the 4h frame and limits the profits of mentally weak investors.
#EarnFreeCrypto2024 #scalping #cutloss #btc60k
👉 Brothers, if you are mentally confused, you can refer to your plan and cut $BTC immediately to leave the market for a while to stabilize your psychology.
👉 Standing outside and waiting is a good option to have a broader perspective because currently it is also heavily sideways in the 4h frame and limits the profits of mentally weak investors.
#EarnFreeCrypto2024 #scalping #cutloss #btc60k
I also shared with everyone about long scalp only holding from 2h-4h in long post $BONK , the main trend is still down until btc 60k.
👉 If you have a backup plan, it's an investment. If you don't have a plan for bad cases and try hard, that's called gambling.
🏄 But you should not worry too much because the market never runs continuously in the 4 hour frame. There will be 2 recovery points that you predict in the image below.
______________-
$BTC will recover soon, you should cut 50% at the recovery point and I will make a plan later.
👉 If you have a backup plan, it's an investment. If you don't have a plan for bad cases and try hard, that's called gambling.
🏄 But you should not worry too much because the market never runs continuously in the 4 hour frame. There will be 2 recovery points that you predict in the image below.
______________-
$BTC will recover soon, you should cut 50% at the recovery point and I will make a plan later.
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#btc60k
Btc has been fluctuating between 58k and 60k in the past week, and on Monday there was a small increase to 61k, however due to many media and market news being scared, btc returning to 57-58k is very likely.
$BTC #Write2Win
Btc has been fluctuating between 58k and 60k in the past week, and on Monday there was a small increase to 61k, however due to many media and market news being scared, btc returning to 57-58k is very likely.
$BTC #Write2Win
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Escape warning...
$PEPE The past few days have established a clear downward trend and we are standing on the other side of the slope of decline. When the market is negatively affected by world economic and political news, the king of cryptocurrency $BTC shows signs of weakness and the 60k area will be the test area of #BTC☀ in the next 1 or 2 weeks. when #btc60k then technical analysis will no longer have any meaning.
$PEPE If when retesting area 0...1 is punctured, it will probably take 3-6 months to see the current price #pepe⚡ . Investors consider whether to sell less or deposit more USDT and wait to buy more when the price #pepe⚡ is at 50% of this price, or even 10%, which is the price range of 0..180.
I'll still buy gradually from now on but still make sure I have enough USDT to buy when the price is 50% now, so that in case CZ gets out of prison and there's some good news, we won't regret it.
Note: June 16, 2024
$PEPE The past few days have established a clear downward trend and we are standing on the other side of the slope of decline. When the market is negatively affected by world economic and political news, the king of cryptocurrency $BTC shows signs of weakness and the 60k area will be the test area of #BTC☀ in the next 1 or 2 weeks. when #btc60k then technical analysis will no longer have any meaning.
$PEPE If when retesting area 0...1 is punctured, it will probably take 3-6 months to see the current price #pepe⚡ . Investors consider whether to sell less or deposit more USDT and wait to buy more when the price #pepe⚡ is at 50% of this price, or even 10%, which is the price range of 0..180.
I'll still buy gradually from now on but still make sure I have enough USDT to buy when the price is 50% now, so that in case CZ gets out of prison and there's some good news, we won't regret it.
Note: June 16, 2024
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Shorter continue to wait, no need to take profit now at 64k. Wait for it to go below 60k with me!!
$BTC #btc60k #mr4investor #SHORT📉
$BTC #btc60k #mr4investor #SHORT📉
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Short team continues to wait, 64k still doesn't need to close, wait for it to drop to 60k then close a little if you want!!
$BTC #btc60k #mr4investor
$BTC #btc60k #mr4investor
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This is not to brag or anything.
Because I don't do community, I don't take ref links from you.
The brothers here are almost the same as me sharing.
But I want to tell you, if you are prepared, you have to act.
I've been calculating since the end of August.
#btc60k
Because I don't do community, I don't take ref links from you.
The brothers here are almost the same as me sharing.
But I want to tell you, if you are prepared, you have to act.
I've been calculating since the end of August.
#btc60k
I Going To Sell BTC 85601 This is a Strong Fibonacci Resistance And See ETH. I Way More Confidence About This Trade.
See This Yellow Line This Is Area OF Resistance 50% Area. This Yellow Line Role Play Line Like a Reversal Level and You See Fibonacci 70%-79% Area OF Resistance Also This Area. This Two First 50% Line in Area Of Resistance & Second Fibonacci Resistance Make More Confidence About The Reversal. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC #BTC☀ #BTC走势分析 #BTC60K #BTC☀️
See This Yellow Line This Is Area OF Resistance 50% Area. This Yellow Line Role Play Line Like a Reversal Level and You See Fibonacci 70%-79% Area OF Resistance Also This Area. This Two First 50% Line in Area Of Resistance & Second Fibonacci Resistance Make More Confidence About The Reversal. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC #BTC☀ #BTC走势分析 #BTC60K #BTC☀️
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