As of May 3, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $96,318.33, near its all-time high of $109,464.94 set in January. Despite a bullish run fueled by institutional adoption and ETF inflows, mounting sell-side pressure, technical warning signs, and macroeconomic uncertainties point to a sharp correction. This post outlines why BTC could fall to $60,000 within the next two weeks, by May 17, 2025.
Recent Price Movement (January 1, 2025 – May 3, 2025)
Bitcoin started 2025 at ~$99,992.85, riding momentum from its December 2024 breakthrough above $100,000. A peak of $109,464.94 on January 20 reflected optimism from $1.9 billion in ETF inflows and a crypto-friendly U.S. administration. However, a -30% correction in March brought prices to $76,000, triggered by disappointment over the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’s lack of clarity. A V-shaped recovery in April pushed BTC to $92,800, and by May 3, it consolidated around $96,318.33, with a market cap of $1.91 trillion.
The weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern, but on-chain and technical signals suggest this rally is losing steam, setting the stage for a significant pullback.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerging
Several technical indicators support a bearish outlook:
Macro Rising Wedge: Analysts on X note a macro rising wedge pattern, with a blow-off top target at $155,000. Such patterns often precede sharp corrections, with a potential bottom at $65,000–$69,000. A drop to $60,000 aligns with weekly wicks into the $50,000s, a plausible overshoot in a panic sell-off.
Wave 3 Decline: A recent X post indicates BTC has entered wave 3 of a decline, starting at $95,000. Unless BTC reclaims $95,000 and pushes above $98,100, a bearish trend could accelerate, targeting lower support levels.
RSI Overbought Risk: The RSI at 70.46 nears overbought territory, signaling potential exhaustion. Historical cycles show corrections often follow RSI peaks above 70, especially during the Acceleration Phase.
Support Levels: Key supports lie at $87,250 (CME gap), $80,000 (March low), and $74,000 (predicted by some analysts). A break below $87,250 could trigger a cascade to $60,000, a psychological level last seen in early 2024.
On-Chain Data: Sell-Side Pressure Intensifies
On-chain metrics reveal growing distribution:
Spot Volume Delta: Over April 27–29, spot volume delta turned sharply negative (-$193.4M on April 29), indicating aggressive selling and weakening spot demand. This suggests profit-taking or buyer exhaustion, common precursors to corrections.
LTH Distribution: Long-term holders are distributing at a 350% unrealized profit margin (~$99,900). As BTC approaches this level, sell-side pressure increases, requiring robust demand to absorb supply. Current data shows demand is faltering.
Liquidity Contraction: Since March, liquidity has contracted in on-chain and futures markets, reducing the market’s ability to sustain high prices during sell-offs.
Macroeconomic and Sentiment Risks
Several external factors could catalyse a drop:
Regulatory Uncertainty: While the U.S. administration is crypto-friendly, regulatory risks persist globally. Past crackdowns (e.g., China’s 2021 ban) caused severe price drops. Any unexpected regulatory moves could trigger panic selling.
Inflation and Monetary Policy: Upcoming U.S. CPI data (expected to ease to 2.6%) and Federal Reserve decisions could signal tighter monetary policy. Bitcoin’s historical correlation with M2 suggests depreciation under such conditions.
Market Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index at 65 (Greed) and 63% green days over the past 30 days indicate over-optimism, often a contrarian signal for corrections. X posts reflect mixed sentiment, with some analysts warning of a wider market correction.
Pathway to $60,000
A plausible scenario for BTC to reach $60,000 by May 17:
Week 1 (May 4–10): Negative spot volume delta and LTH selling push BTC below $87,250, breaching the CME gap. Panic selling accelerates as the 50-day MA fails to hold, driving prices to $80,000.
Week 2 (May 11–17): Failure to reclaim $87,250 confirms the bearish trend. The macro rising wedge breaks down, targeting $65,000–$69,000. Liquidation cascades and stop-loss triggers overshoot to $60,000, a level with historical support from early 2024.
This 37.7% drop aligns with historical corrections (e.g., 75% in 2017–2018) and the Acceleration Phase’s volatility, where sharp pullbacks are common before or after blow-off tops.
Counterarguments and Risks
Bullish factors could delay or prevent this drop:
ETF Inflows: Continued inflows ($3.3 billion in late April) could absorb sell-side pressure, stabilizing prices above $90,000.
Institutional Support: Firms like BlackRock and MicroStrategy may defend key support levels, limiting downside.
Halving Cycle: Post-halving bullishness (April 2024) typically extends into Q2, potentially pushing BTC to $100,000+ before correcting.
However, the confluence of technical breakdowns, on-chain selling, and macroeconomic risks outweighs these factors in the short term, favouring a rapid decline.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s rally to $96,318.33 masks underlying weaknesses: aggressive selling, LTH distribution, and technical overextension. A break below $87,250 could trigger a cascade to $60,000 by May 17, 2025, driven by panic selling and liquidity contraction. Investors should monitor RSI, spot volume delta, and key supports at $87,250 and $80,000. While bullish catalysts like ETF inflows remain, the risk of a sharp correction looms large. Stay cautious and conduct your own research before trading.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
