Bullish view
The macroeconomic situation in the United States is improving
Inflation has fallen below 3%, and the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates. Corporate earnings are strong, especially in the technology sector, and economic indicators show that the US economy is neutral or positive. Rate cuts will increase the attractiveness of high-risk investments and reduce Treasury yields.
Crypto market performance after the election
Historically, the crypto market rose sharply after the US elections in 2016 and 2020, so a similar trend may occur again after the 2024 election. However, the economic environment is different from before, and the data is not enough to make serious predictions.
Bitcoin performance after halving
Bitcoin's price rose after the halving in 2016 and 2020. Although this "cyclical" view of gains is too simplistic, the market has certain expectations for Bitcoin. The growth of the cryptocurrency industry makes it difficult to sustain such a cyclical rise prediction.
Bitcoin price stability
Bitcoin prices remain stable at high levels, indicating that new highs may appear after consolidation. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs further consolidate the market position of cryptocurrencies.
Bearish view
Negative macroeconomic situation
Some people believe that the US economy will fall into recession, rising unemployment data and interest rate cuts may lead to a resurgence of inflation. At the same time, Berkshire Hathaway's massive sell-off of technology stocks and record cash holdings are all worrying.
Weak position of narrative
Cryptocurrencies are mainly used for speculation and fail to solve real problems. Although Bitcoin is seen as a tool to fight inflation, Ethereum and its Layer 2 network still face speed, cost and interoperability challenges. Although Solana has made progress as a competitor, its current high valuation may face selling pressure.
Comparison with 2019
The current market structure is reminiscent of 2019, and it may experience a period of steady decline after the Fed's interest rate cut. Contrary to the view of a local bottom and a rebound before the end of the year, there may be long-term downward market pressure.
Summary
Market views are divided and are currently facing challenges from multiple factors such as the economy, crypto market cycles and technological progress. Investors need to carefully balance risks and returns.
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