#美国加征关税 The US and China engaged in a life-or-death discussion in London for 48 hours, temporarily pressing the nuclear button on the trade war, but the fuse is still burning. August 10 is the line between life and death!
Temporary painkiller:
The US has eased its grip on rare earths.
China has also loosened its restrictions, allowing Shenzhen rare earth companies to export again.
The most drastic move is the plunge in tariffs! The punitive tariffs imposed by the US on China have been slashed from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced its tariffs on the US from 125% to 10%. This is definitely a significant concession from both sides!
BUT! A time bomb hangs overhead:
August 10 is the deadline! If no agreement is reached before then, all the reduced tariffs will “boom” back up, possibly even worse! This is not a deal at all; it’s just a postponed explosion!
A superficial ceasefire while secretly stabbing:
The US is being sly: the bans on chips and aircraft equipment remain unchanged, and it boasts about the court supporting its 34% “standard” tariff. I see this as a stalling tactic, with a big stick ready to strike at any moment!
China hasn’t backed down either: Exports to the US plummeted by 34.5% in May, a record low; the trade war is indeed painful. But we have the rare earth trump card, forcing the US to come back to the negotiating table; that’s a strong hand!
The world is terrified:
The World Bank overnight downgraded next year's global growth forecast to a dismal 2.3%.
ECB President Lagarde is urgently shouting: If this continues, the global economy will go straight to ICU!
Countries like the EU, Japan, and Mexico, especially those involved in aircraft manufacturing, are begging the US to “not shoot!” The market is genuinely scared!
Experts' outrageous comments:
This is just a “Syrian-style ceasefire” — as fragile as tissue paper! The deep-rooted contradictions remain unresolved; it all depends on the leaders’ moods, and they could turn hostile at any moment. I completely agree; this “peace” is too unreliable!
The market is going crazy:
Rare earth stocks are skyrocketing, and related companies in Shenzhen are printing money.
The dollar is inexplicably falling, exposing a deep-seated insecurity in the market.
US companies are in a split: on one hand, they shout for “long live the probation”, and on the other, they secretly hoard goods in preparation for the August explosion! This blatantly shows that no one believes this ceasefire can last!
My ultimate judgment:
Trump's tariff cannon is already loaded and just waiting to fire on August 10!
Beijing holds the rare earth card, and if pushed to the limit, it will strike back.
Are you trapped? When will you bottom out? It's still the same old saying: feeling lost and helpless, not knowing what to do, just tap the avatar to comment.