#日本加息 Remember in December 2023, the Bank of Japan suddenly made a big news, adjusting the yield curve control (YCC), which caused a major earthquake in the market - the yen soared, the USD/JPY fell directly by 2%, the Nikkei 225 fell by more than 3% in one day, and even Bitcoin against the US dollar was affected, with a fluctuation range of more than 5% on the same day, first a sharp drop and then a strong rebound. The situation is a little different this time, because the market has long expected the possible interest rate hike, so the volatility is estimated to be not so drastic, but the impact is still not to be underestimated.

If Japan really raises the interest rate to 0.50% tomorrow (January 24), the market may feel that the global interest rate has not yet reached the top, which will put a lot of pressure on US stocks, especially high-valuation technology sectors such as the Nasdaq. And Bitcoin against the US dollar will not be immune this time. The appreciation of the yen may lead to a weakening of the US dollar. It stands to reason that it is good for Bitcoin, but the expectation of an interest rate hike will put pressure on overall risk assets, and Bitcoin may experience a 2%-4% correction in the short term.

If the Bank of Japan does not take action, market sentiment will be relaxed, the US dollar may weaken, and Bitcoin is expected to rebound by 3%-5% against the US dollar. Although the short-term volatility this time is expected to be moderate, not as crazy as the last unexpected adjustment, Bitcoin will still be affected by the ripple effect of the global capital market and continue to be a barometer of liquidity changes. This Bank of Japan meeting is not just a matter for Japan. Its impact has already overflowed and has affected the nerves of global investors.