2024 Year of the Ox will take off, 20 predictions for the crypto market
1. In 2024, L2 remains one of the most important narratives. With the upgrade of dencun, the significant drop in L2 fees will trigger an explosion of the L2 ecosystem. In addition to games, perp, defi, nft, etc., social, depin, etc. on L2 will also usher in an explosive period.
2. L2 such as arb, op, zksync, starknet and blast will compete with other public chains in all aspects. With the implementation of EIP-4844 and the evolution of the DA layer, it will keep pace with high-performance public chains in terms of cost and speed. The ecological competition between arbitrum and solana will be an important highlight in 2024.
3. In 2024, zksync will launch an economic mechanism and become an important force in promoting the explosion of L2.
4. If Starknet achieves a breakthrough, the full-chain game narrative will be launched.
5. There will be an L2 project with a diluted total market value exceeding US$100 billion in 2024; under optimistic circumstances, there may be an L2 project with a diluted total market value exceeding US$300 billion during the peak period of the cycle. The L2 market structure is still uncertain in 2024, but it may be basically finalized after this cycle.
6. The btc ecology has opened the magic box after the inscription battle, and many teams are exploring expansion, including index decentralization, inscription system evolution, decentralized cross-chain, zk proof, L2, etc. The exploration of Bitcoin ecology is one of the most striking evolutions of this cycle.
7. Ethereum L1 gradually evolves into a B2B chain, and most of the interactions of ordinary users will occur on L2/L3 and a few high-performance L1s. Ethereum has gradually become the underlying asset in the encryption field, but due to the need for the lowest level security, ETH will still capture the value of the overall ecological growth.
8. As predicted in 2023, modularity will still be an important narrative in 2024, especially with fierce competition at the DA level. The Ethereum re-pledge field will also enter the DA layer for competition. In the field of modularization, the Cosmos ecosystem and the Ethereum ecosystem are both competing and integrating. There will be competition between third-party DA and native DA.
9. In addition to the Ethereum and BTC ecosystems, the cosmos and solana ecosystems will also continue to develop. Cosmos will make progress through modularity, Solana will make progress through some applications. As the modular blockchain matures, Solana may participate in a broader crypto ecosystem and be more integrated with Ethereum, thereby capturing greater value.
10. When L2/L3 (arb, starknet, etc.) achieve breakthroughs, web3 games will usher in breakthroughs, and one game has more than one million users. The game chain based on Arb will become the forefront of web3 game breakthroughs. Magic will be launched in 2024 with the interoperability of game chains and more games, which will have important implications for the evolution of web3 games.
11. In addition to integrating nft dex, nft lending, and blast, blur is expected to enter nft perp in 2024, and even the nft market of L2, btc, and sol ecology. Blur still has the opportunity to play one of the most important industry disruptors in 2024. one.
12. In addition to the explosion of L2 projects, the Ethereum ecosystem is also expected to produce large-scale deflation, thereby achieving value capture. This mechanism will encourage more users to pledge/re-pledge, further locking in the eth in circulation.
13. In 2024, perp in defi will develop on a large scale, and snx, gmx, gns, dydx, etc. will generate at least 5 times the transaction volume in 2023. Perp may not be an important narrative in the bull market, but it is probably one of the tracks with the best fundamentals.
14. The advancement of modular blockchain and cross-chain technology will lead to the integration of the Ethereum ecology, the BTC ecology, and the Solana ecology. This cycle will see the emergence of many projects that are currently relatively unknown. According to the current evolution of the Bitcoin ecosystem, one of the paths may be for Ethereum to carry the second layer of Bitcoin, which will gradually increase the integration of Bitcoin and Ethereum. No matter what, the expansion of Bitcoin needs to follow its own native path, similar to protocols such as atomicals. If AVM can be implemented, it will have an important impact on the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
15. Depin will make some breakthroughs on solana and arbitrum. This track is still in the early stages of construction, and more exploratory projects will emerge.
16. AI is still some distance away from its actual implementation, but this does not prevent it from becoming one of the important narratives in 2024. AI protocols based on L2 and high-performance public chains will also gradually emerge.
17. The Ethereum remortgage track will become an important narrative at some point this year.
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18. NFT, MEME and inscriptions will recover at some point, which will also bring about an increase in NFT DEX trading volume and provide a market basis for the launch of NFT Perp.
19. Some celebrities will enter the fields of nft, meme, and inscriptions.
20. With the development of L2 and the exploration of high-frequency applications, smart contract wallets have the opportunity to start to emerge in 2024.
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