In the overall big picture, I see not only the lack of support below 80,000, but I am also more optimistic about the large pie starting with the number 7 in March.
The key support for this round of the big cycle focuses on the Fibonacci 0.618—7.22 line. If the retraction in the first half of the year does not break this line, then it is expected that the subsequent movement will mainly oscillate within the range of 70,000 to 90,000, a 20,000-point range.
However, if this round of the big cycle at 7.22 cannot provide support in the first half of the year, it means that the true transition from bull to bear has arrived, leading to a liberation of space below 70,000, and it may even further approach the significant 50,000 mark.
The pancake has perfectly reached expectations above 100,000 Successfully secured a 2,000 point space and can safely exit and rest
Secondly, Ethereum has also successfully reached the second expected point—around 2,100 Bulls should pay attention to clearing out, and in the latter half of the night, only observe, confirming the trend again at eight in the morning.
言币行
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Bullish
Executing the original idea in the second half of the night The final target remains unchanged at 100000-101000 Initial Ethereum target of 1950 reached, pay attention to 1930-1920 in the second half of the night
If the entity retracement does not break 1930-1920, further upward outlook to 2100 can be considered PS: Before eight o'clock tomorrow morning, if the trend has not broken the high, exit all positions early.
Executing the original idea in the second half of the night The final target remains unchanged at 100000-101000 Initial Ethereum target of 1950 reached, pay attention to 1930-1920 in the second half of the night
If the entity retracement does not break 1930-1920, further upward outlook to 2100 can be considered PS: Before eight o'clock tomorrow morning, if the trend has not broken the high, exit all positions early.
Ethereum has also broken through the 1900 level we mentioned before the holiday. Currently, it is important to note that the second breakout point is at 1950. If it cannot further break 1950, it will be difficult to achieve a secondary rally above. In the afternoon, attention can be paid to appropriately chasing up around the 1880 line, with a short-term target looking at 1950 first.
There have been quite a few events in the past couple of days, and it is expected to officially resume updates from 5-7 days. First, this week, Bitcoin has fallen below the upward support of 955, and we will continue to observe the resistance between 95-955. If it cannot stabilize after multiple tests, we will need to revert to the previous downward retracement thinking.
Ethereum's observed effective support at 1800 is valid, but breaking through 1900 is quite difficult. We still need to view 1900 as a resistance point, and we can continue to seek resistance around 1850-1870 at the top.
After yesterday's surge, the weekend market sentiment has eased. The short-selling sentiment is starting to fade, and the reverse strategy around 97-968 has not yielded immediate results. However, it is currently confirmed that a continuation upward trend has formed, and the hope for a high-level sideways correction is low. Therefore, the strategy of pursuing small bulls is still retained, and attention will be given to proper re-entry opportunities around 96 over the weekend. As long as the entity does not break 955, the pursuit strategy remains unchanged, with the small bull breakout strategy looking further up to 99-100.
言币行
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Bullish
Basic confirmation of a preliminary breakthrough at twelve o'clock However, the extent of the breakout is not large, leaving some room for a small pullback
In the second half of the night, consider watching 97-968 for exit, and reverse around this range If the breakout momentum continues, the next round of breakthrough highs will look towards 99-100
PS: For Ethereum, consider exiting early at 1830-1820, then looking upwards at 19-21
Basic confirmation of a preliminary breakthrough at twelve o'clock However, the extent of the breakout is not large, leaving some room for a small pullback
In the second half of the night, consider watching 97-968 for exit, and reverse around this range If the breakout momentum continues, the next round of breakthrough highs will look towards 99-100
PS: For Ethereum, consider exiting early at 1830-1820, then looking upwards at 19-21
The latest release of non-farm payroll data shows an increase of 177,000 people. Compared to the previous value, this represents a reduction of 50,000 jobs, but due to being far higher than the market expectation of 130,000 jobs, it has temporarily become a positive indicator for U.S. stocks. However, it is an undeniable fact that the employment environment in the U.S. is further deteriorating, while the Federal Reserve predicts a 95% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged in May, making any rate cuts likely to be delayed.
Therefore, the short-term positive momentum for U.S. stocks may be difficult to sustain, which will also impact our market. We can only reiterate our previous thought:
975, 1900, the 4H level change has not stabilized. Hold onto high-level short positions firmly, but if the 4H breaks through and stabilizes, then decisively sell off and pay attention to small pullbacks for direct consideration of upward chasing.
The focus today is on the 4H level Whether the 4H level can break the high and stabilize above 975 Will the trend be a second launch straight to one hundred thousand, or an important signal of a peak and pullback
The large pancake slightly broke the 97 resistance in the late night However, the real test in the late night did not successfully stabilize above 97 So for Friday's layout, continue to look down around 965 If the entity does not stabilize above 97, do not easily discard short positions.
The mainstream market has finally reached the expected top after several days of fluctuations First focus on resistance above 96 and 1850, looking to hold below 97 and 1900 The pullback cycle officially begins, with targets looking at 92-87 and 1700-1650
The focal point remains unchanged, another round of a thousand points for 935-95 As long as the upper and lower limits of 965-93 hold, continue to sell high and buy low The market fluctuation is not significant, today we will pause for a day, wishing everyone a happy May Day holiday.