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Some institutions say Moutai will be cut in half
Moutai, which has fallen for seven consecutive days, topped the list of hot stocks, with its share price hitting a 22-month low. In October 2022, it also fell below 1,400. At that time, the market had doubts about the third-quarter report. As a result, Moutai's performance shattered the doubts and the stock price rebounded quickly.
In comparison, the situation this time is much more complicated. The overall consumer market is sluggish, and the price of Moutai in the secondary market has experienced a sharp drop. The price of a single bottle of Feitian in bulk has dropped to as low as 2,080. Although the price has been stabilized by reducing supply and other measures, market confidence is still somewhat shaky.
Then yesterday, UBS's research report gave another push. The core idea is that the annual compound growth rate in 2024-2025 will drop from 19% to 8%. Due to the expansion of production capacity in the past few years, high-end liquor will face great retail pressure in the next one and a half years. It also pessimistically predicted that the wholesale prices of Moutai and Wuliangye may fall by 50% and 17% by the end of 2025, and stabilize until 2026.
In comparison, the situation this time is much more complicated. The overall consumer market is sluggish, and the price of Moutai in the secondary market has experienced a sharp drop. The price of a single bottle of Feitian in bulk has dropped to as low as 2,080. Although the price has been stabilized by reducing supply and other measures, market confidence is still somewhat shaky.
Then yesterday, UBS's research report gave another push. The core idea is that the annual compound growth rate in 2024-2025 will drop from 19% to 8%. Due to the expansion of production capacity in the past few years, high-end liquor will face great retail pressure in the next one and a half years. It also pessimistically predicted that the wholesale prices of Moutai and Wuliangye may fall by 50% and 17% by the end of 2025, and stabilize until 2026.
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Bank financial management can also lose 99%
When I first came online today, I saw many messages asking me how much I drank last night. My friend and I shared a bottle of Feitian, and I gave more than 1 or 2 liang to his father-in-law, and I basically split the rest, so it was about 4 liang of liquor. I was fine when I left his house, but when I got home, I felt so sleepy that I had to go to bed.
I didn't drink much when I was young, but I started to like drinking after I turned 35. When middle-aged men eat together, they won't drink unless they are in a hurry for a work meal. So now when I hear about young people not drinking and no one consuming liquor anymore, I just laugh it off. My brothers are still young, and they will be unlocked automatically in a few years.
I didn't drink much when I was young, but I started to like drinking after I turned 35. When middle-aged men eat together, they won't drink unless they are in a hurry for a work meal. So now when I hear about young people not drinking and no one consuming liquor anymore, I just laugh it off. My brothers are still young, and they will be unlocked automatically in a few years.
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The recent bond market situation in the village is quite strange.
Institutions, enterprises, and banks are scrambling for long bonds, and even many external institutions in Hong Kong are scrambling for long bonds, which has led to a decline in short-term interest rates on long bonds.
Many retail investors have joined the scramble without knowing the truth, but they are confused when they get the money.
The yield is low, the yield calculation method is not understood, and they can't even calculate fixed income, and then they shout "pit".
Indeed, too many people don't understand the logical relationship in the bond market. A very simple example is that "the price of bonds is inversely proportional to the yield", which many people cannot understand.
The vast majority of people have a "beautiful" misunderstanding about fixed income and the bond market, which leads to many people regretting after buying.
This year, institutions inside and outside the village are scrambling for long bonds, and the issuance of long bonds this year is insufficient, resulting in an increase in the price of short-term long bonds and a decrease in yields. This is the disadvantage of fixed income. If the short-term price rises too fast, it will inevitably lead to an increase in its risk, so the central bank began to frequently remind of the long-term interest rate risk and issued super-long bonds at the same time, just to ease the tension between supply and demand in the short-term bond market. As a result, when the people heard it, they followed suit and scrambled for super-long bonds.
Of course, this is also due to the fact that some experts in the village always speak ill of the situation. When can we expose the fakes of the "experts"?
#债券
Institutions, enterprises, and banks are scrambling for long bonds, and even many external institutions in Hong Kong are scrambling for long bonds, which has led to a decline in short-term interest rates on long bonds.
Many retail investors have joined the scramble without knowing the truth, but they are confused when they get the money.
The yield is low, the yield calculation method is not understood, and they can't even calculate fixed income, and then they shout "pit".
Indeed, too many people don't understand the logical relationship in the bond market. A very simple example is that "the price of bonds is inversely proportional to the yield", which many people cannot understand.
The vast majority of people have a "beautiful" misunderstanding about fixed income and the bond market, which leads to many people regretting after buying.
This year, institutions inside and outside the village are scrambling for long bonds, and the issuance of long bonds this year is insufficient, resulting in an increase in the price of short-term long bonds and a decrease in yields. This is the disadvantage of fixed income. If the short-term price rises too fast, it will inevitably lead to an increase in its risk, so the central bank began to frequently remind of the long-term interest rate risk and issued super-long bonds at the same time, just to ease the tension between supply and demand in the short-term bond market. As a result, when the people heard it, they followed suit and scrambled for super-long bonds.
Of course, this is also due to the fact that some experts in the village always speak ill of the situation. When can we expose the fakes of the "experts"?
#债券
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Robert Kiyosaki: Bonds are the biggest lie, Bitcoin is the future
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, called bonds "the biggest lie" and endorsed Bitcoin as a safer investment strategy.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, has challenged the conventional wisdom that bonds are safe investments. In a recent tweet, he called the idea that financial planners have sold investors that bonds are safe "the biggest lie," suggesting that it has misled gullible investors.
He further warned that even highly rated AAA bonds are at risk of collapse, especially given the looming crisis in the commercial real estate market. In contrast, he advocated Bitcoin as a key component of a safe investment strategy.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, has challenged the conventional wisdom that bonds are safe investments. In a recent tweet, he called the idea that financial planners have sold investors that bonds are safe "the biggest lie," suggesting that it has misled gullible investors.
He further warned that even highly rated AAA bonds are at risk of collapse, especially given the looming crisis in the commercial real estate market. In contrast, he advocated Bitcoin as a key component of a safe investment strategy.
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Such a thick skin
The convertible bond circle has been in an uproar these days. The reason was that a listed company called Lingnan Shares announced that it had limited funds and was unable to repay the principal and interest of the Lingnan convertible bonds that were originally due on August 15, about 650 million yuan, which was already a substantial default.
(For new stockholders, let me briefly explain what convertible bonds are. They are bonds issued by listed companies. Unlike ordinary bonds, if a listed company does not have the money to redeem convertible bonds, it can convert all of these bonds into stocks and sell them on the stock market, which is equivalent to asking shareholders to repay the company's debts. In the history of A-shares, most convertible bonds were not repaid in the end, and were converted into stocks and sold.)
(For new stockholders, let me briefly explain what convertible bonds are. They are bonds issued by listed companies. Unlike ordinary bonds, if a listed company does not have the money to redeem convertible bonds, it can convert all of these bonds into stocks and sell them on the stock market, which is equivalent to asking shareholders to repay the company's debts. In the history of A-shares, most convertible bonds were not repaid in the end, and were converted into stocks and sold.)
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BlackRock: Do not exceed 2% of total investment in BTC! Future volatility and return rates will decrease!
Macroeconomic interpretation: As the cryptocurrency market continues to attract global investors' attention, the report on Bitcoin investment released by BlackRock's investment research institute serves as a stone thrown into a lake, creating ripples and providing us with a unique and highly valuable perspective for insight into the future direction of Bitcoin investment.
Today I saw a report from Reuters on the official views and investment advice from #贝莱德 . Relatively speaking, it is quite objective, mainly mentioning that institutional investment in Bitcoin may suppress some of the #BTC☀️ volatility, and it will also lower the investment returns of Bitcoin. It also suggests that if investors invest in Bitcoin, it is best not to exceed 2% of their total investment! Many in our crypto circle may have exceeded this limit. BlackRock's advice is based on #资产配置 philosophy, considering the risk characteristics of BTC, combined with stock and #债券 portfolios for diversified investment.
Today I saw a report from Reuters on the official views and investment advice from #贝莱德 . Relatively speaking, it is quite objective, mainly mentioning that institutional investment in Bitcoin may suppress some of the #BTC☀️ volatility, and it will also lower the investment returns of Bitcoin. It also suggests that if investors invest in Bitcoin, it is best not to exceed 2% of their total investment! Many in our crypto circle may have exceeded this limit. BlackRock's advice is based on #资产配置 philosophy, considering the risk characteristics of BTC, combined with stock and #债券 portfolios for diversified investment.
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Societe Generale embraces blockchain with green bond issuance
French banking giant SocGen recently issued a green bond on the Ethereum network, marking a major shift in traditional finance’s attitude toward digital assets. The move highlights the growing interest among mainstream financial institutions in the potential of blockchain technology to improve the transparency, efficiency and sustainability of financial transactions.
Blockchain technology makes headway in finance
Société Générale has issued a €10 million digital green bond token managed by its digital asset-focused unit SG-FORGE, representing a growing trend in the financial industry. The initiative captures the essence of how traditional finance (TradFi) institutions are increasingly adopting blockchain-based solutions. Last month, JPMorgan and Apollo, along with several cryptocurrency firms, demonstrated the potential of blockchain in tokenizing funds, signaling a broader industry shift.
Blockchain technology makes headway in finance
Société Générale has issued a €10 million digital green bond token managed by its digital asset-focused unit SG-FORGE, representing a growing trend in the financial industry. The initiative captures the essence of how traditional finance (TradFi) institutions are increasingly adopting blockchain-based solutions. Last month, JPMorgan and Apollo, along with several cryptocurrency firms, demonstrated the potential of blockchain in tokenizing funds, signaling a broader industry shift.
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