June 16 | Micron Earnings Eve: The Market's Bet Isn't on AI, But on How Long HBM Will Remain Scarce
On June 24, Micron (MU) will release earnings,
potentially one of the most significant AI earnings reports this year.
Because what the market is debating now,
isn't whether AI will continue to evolve.
But rather:
What is the biggest bottleneck for AI?
In the past two years,
NVIDIA has been the biggest winner in the entire AI supply chain.
Whoever can grab more GPUs,
can train larger models.
But as more capital flows into AI,
the market has started to notice another thing:
GPUs can be bought,
but HBM might not be so easy to acquire.
Many people misunderstand HBM as just regular storage chips.
In reality,
it’s more like the fuel of the AI era.
Models are getting larger,
inference demands are increasing,
every upgrade
means a rise in HBM demand.
However, the growth in supply isn’t keeping pace.
Advanced packaging, yield rates, equipment, capacity,
every link in the chain is constraining the speed of expansion.
This is also why, over the past year,
storage has become one of the strongest sectors in the AI supply chain.
What the market is really focused on,
is not how much Micron made this quarter.
But whether HBM will continue to be in short supply in the coming years.
If the answer is yes,
then the logic of the storage industry may have already shifted.
In the past storage industry:
Price increases → Crazy expansion → Oversupply → Downcycle.
But the demand driven by AI,
might be breaking this cycle.
Because this time,
the speed of demand growth far exceeds that of supply.
So for this earnings report,
what I’m most focused on isn’t revenue.
Nor is it profit.
But how the management views the supply-demand relationship for 2027-2028.
This will determine not just next quarter.
But the entire AI infrastructure cycle.
Many people are searching for the next NVIDIA.
But I’m more interested in those toll booths that AI can't bypass.
Two years ago it was GPUs.
Last year it was optical modules.
This year, one of my key focuses
is still HBM storage.
The market isn't betting on AI.
The market is betting on how long HBM will remain scarce.
What do you think will have the best chance in the next AI market cycle,
compute power, storage, or advanced packaging?
Buy the moat, ride the bull — Buy the moat, hold for the long bull.
#BTC☀ #MU #HBM