区块博士

The S&P 500 keeps climbing, but the real money managers are starting to pull out. Brian Garrett from Goldman Sachs sent out a memo, and his words were pretty direct: a 3% to 5% pullback is "just a matter of time." The data is also clear—hedge funds have been net selling U.S. stocks for three consecutive weeks, and the de-leveraging in the tech sector is the largest in a decade, with the Magnificent 7 being sold off four out of five days.

Interestingly, there’s Buffett's side of things. Abel's first quarterly report since taking over shows Berkshire has been net selling stocks for the 14th consecutive quarter, stacking up cash to $397 billion, a new all-time high. Why? Abel's own words point to the same figure: S&P CAPE 40.1, the highest since 2000. Goldman’s Oppenheimer also echoed similar sentiments—the equity risk premium has dropped back to pre-2008 levels, which means buying stocks is almost demanding no extra return. This is a classic signal of a bubble.

But I think what’s most worth watching isn’t these individual data points, but the internal structure of the market. In the last five times the S&P hit new highs, four were with "negative breadth"—sounds complicated, but basically, on the day of a new high, there were more stocks declining than advancing. Market breadth has shrunk to levels not seen since the 1999 internet bubble. On one side, hedge funds and Buffett are pulling back, while on the other, retail investors and passive funds are still pouring in—QQQ saw $10 billion inflows in April, and the semiconductor ETF took in $5 billion, both record highs. These two groups are doing completely opposite things, and usually, this kind of situation doesn’t end well.

Goldman’s trading desk summed it up succinctly: "The days of making money just by going long Beta are over."

# 2026 Berkshire Shareholders' Meeting Wraps Up, What Did the "Post-Buffett Era" Premiere Discuss?

The 2026 Berkshire shareholders' meeting has just concluded. This marked the first time in 60 years that Buffett stepped back while the new CEO—Greg Abel—took center stage. Buffett sat in the audience while Abel held the spotlight, with jerseys honoring Buffett hanging from the dome. An AI-generated deepfake video of Buffett was played at the event, sparking discussions about AI risks. This scene alone signifies that Berkshire has turned a new page.

So, what investment insights did this new leader convey during his highly anticipated debut?

The core message can be summed up in one line: extreme patience, waiting for the market to make mistakes.

First, he repeatedly emphasized "not putting capital into suboptimal opportunities"—it's not that he can't see good companies, but he firmly refrains from acting when valuations are too high. Berkshire's cash reserves have skyrocketed to $397.4 billion in the first quarter, a historical high, but Abel made it clear that, given the company's economic outlook and current prices, he has no interest in acquiring these companies at this valuation. Vice Chairman of Insurance, Ajit Jain, added more bluntly: the true test of success is the ability to say "no."

Secondly, having massive cash is not a burden but a strategic weapon. Abel stressed, "We are not dependent on anyone," and the combination of $397.4 billion in cash plus government bonds gives Berkshire absolute control during cyclical fluctuations—whether it’s mergers, buybacks, or holding off, all options are on the table, free from external pressures.

In terms of specific asset allocation, he named four core holdings: Apple, American Express, Moody's, and Coca-Cola, along with Japan's five major trading companies. These are the foundational stocks in Berkshire's equity investments, bought with no intention of selling. Regarding hot sectors like AI, his attitude remains calm—"We won't chase AI for the sake of AI"; any investment must create substantial value for the business rather than just following market trends.

Buffett’s addition served as the best footnote to this philosophy: opportunities only appear when "no one else is willing to pick up the phone." Until then, stay patient, keep cash ready, and wait for the market to slip up before making a move.

Just TGE'd MegaETH, with an 8-week airdrop of 250 million tokens and a prize pool around $37 million.

Moderately active users can expect around $100-$500, with the ceiling depending on how much effort you put in. It’s already listed on Binance and OKX, so no worries about a major dump.

Steps to participate are in the image. Basically, just log into Terminal → cross-chain deposit → earn points using the app.

MegaETH has secured over $100 million from Dragonfly, Vitalik, and others, and MEGA is currently at $0.148, just TGE’d and still in the early stages.

Kumbaya LP is the safest bet, and you can play with the HitOne contract if you want. Taking it slow over 8 weeks is more effective than just rushing in the first week. If you're not keen on the hassle, just stick with Kumbaya.

NFA, DYOR.

One chart to understand Elon Musk vs. Ultraman's $134 billion AI lawsuit

This September, MicroStrategy's BTC holdings could surpass Satoshi Nakamoto's.

On April 20, 2026, Strategy bought 34,200 bitcoins at an average price of $74,395, totaling $2.542 billion. On April 27, they added another 3,300 bitcoins, bringing their total to 818,300, currently valued at around $63 billion.

Top five purchase records of Strategy:
* Largest: November 25, 2024, bought 55,500 bitcoins at an average price of $97,862.
* Second largest: November 18, 2024, bought 51,800 bitcoins at an average price of $88,627.
* Third largest: April 20, 2026, bought 34,200 bitcoins at an average price of $74,395.
* Fourth largest: July 29, 2025, bought 21,000 bitcoins at an average price of $117,256.
* Fifth largest: March 16, 2026, bought 22,400 bitcoins at an average price of $70,194.

These continual buy records are bringing Strategy's holdings close to that of Bitcoin's founder. The current global holdings distribution is as follows:
* First: Satoshi Nakamoto, approximately 1.1 million bitcoins (5.24%)
* Second: Strategy, 818,300 bitcoins (3.90%)
* Third: BlackRock (IBIT), approximately 380,000 bitcoins (1.81%)
* Fourth: Fidelity (FBTC), approximately 210,000 bitcoins (1.00%)
* Fifth: Grayscale (GBTC), approximately 175,000 bitcoins (0.83%)

Strategy is about 281,700 bitcoins away from surpassing Satoshi. At the recent purchase rate of about 50,000 bitcoins per month over the last two months, the estimated timeframes are as follows:
* Normal pace: October to November 2026
* Optimistic scenario: September 2026 (improved funding efficiency)
* Pessimistic scenario: February 2027 (slowed funding pace)

This week, the global market is set for a double whammy with central bank policies and tech giants' earnings reports, especially crucial on April 30. Investors need to keep an eye on the Fed's signals, the BoJ's hawkish stance, and the MAG7 earnings performance.

Time: April 27, 2026 — May 3, 2026 (Beijing Time)

1. Super Central Bank Week (Main Attraction)
Five major central banks will announce their interest rate decisions this week, with the market generally expecting no changes:
April 28: Bank of Japan (potentially hinting at a June rate hike, the biggest wildcard)
April 29: Federal Reserve (holding steady at 3.5%-3.75%), Bank of Canada
April 30: European Central Bank, Bank of England
The Fed's closely watched March PCE inflation data will also be released on April 30.

2. Super Earnings Week
The MAG7 giants are dropping their earnings:
April 29-30: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta
April 30: Apple
Storage giants: Samsung Electronics, Western Digital, etc. will also report in sync
Domestic highlights: BYD, Foxconn Industrial, Cambricon, China Merchants Bank, and other Q1 reports
April 30 is the most significant day of the week (central bank decisions + heavy-weight earnings concentrated).

3. Other Important Events
Domestic: Political Bureau meeting at the end of April (high probability of being held), April official manufacturing PMI (April 30)
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting: May 2 (first since Buffett stepped down as CEO, hosted by new CEO Greg Abel)
Iran Situation: Continuous monitoring, Iran will hold a nationwide parade on the 29th
A-shares: Market closed for Labor Day from May 1-5
Others: Alibaba HappyHorse open testing, Google Cloud service price increase, several companies adjusting product prices, and China's 100% zero tariff on African imports officially implemented.

#比特币突破7.9万美元 $BTC

Hey folks, the AHR999 indicator has finally come out of the deep bottom.

Back at the end of February, when the US-Iran conflict kicked off, a lot of people panicked, watching Bitcoin drop from its highs, with some waiting for it to bounce back to 30k to jump in. Now, it’s stabilized around the 0.48 accumulation zone, and Bitcoin has rebounded to 78k.

When people panic, they tend to panic even more. Buffett once said, 'Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.' The more chaotic things get, the more we can delay the necessary actions we should take.

Many were fixated on 30k, 50k, and 60k waiting to buy, but when the actual low came, they were too scared of further drops and ended up investing nothing. On the flip side, those who started dollar-cost averaging after the indicator signals are now reaping the rebound.

Even with indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500, which have been bullish long-term, few can hold on through the ride. It's not because it’s tough, but because the emotional toll during the holding period is intense. Morgan Housel emphasizes this in 'The Psychology of Money'—the market trends upward over time, but the fluctuations in between can lead to constant self-doubt. Bitcoin is no different; while dollar-cost averaging seems straightforward, actually doing it without being swayed by short-term volatility is quite a test.

Right now, the indicators are still in a comfy accumulation zone, so if you’re in it, keep at it. Don’t just wait for the perfect bottom; history shows that most people don’t lose by buying early, but by always waiting.

#比特币 #AHR999 #定投 #人性这回事

NLP pay attention to risks, it's not mindless deposits. Now the prep narrative is ebbing, transaction fee subsidies have decreased, points are no longer valuable, and various LPs are still losing money. No one is coming to the casino to play, and the so-called counterpart LPs have also started to incur continuous losses. Even hyperliquid's HLP has been losing money recently. In contrast, lighter's LLP has performed relatively well.
$LIT is worth a better price.

$SIREN The psychology of money mentions a rule that after a major earthquake, there are often aftershocks.

78k is just catching a breath, don't consider it as the main rising wave!

Spot market is weak (retail + offshore dominance, no inflow from US institutions), funding rate turns negative -1.57%, on-chain selling pressure is significant (LTH transfers increase, short-term holdings floating profit 43%, MVRV ≈ 1.39)

Three signals in sync. This rebound relies solely on short squeeze + geopolitical sentiment, not real buying support.

Below 80k, there is a high probability of fluctuation, don't rush to go all in before institutions return!

$BTC

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$SIREN killed someone?

Drift being stolen has greatly impacted many projects on Solana. Previously, I also participated in some affected projects' "points mining + financial management". Later, I narrowly escaped a disaster because the project team continuously diluted the points and withdrew. However, for "points" airdrop projects, I believe there are several points that can help in filtering and avoiding pitfalls, the most important being the fourth point:

1️⃣ Take endorsements lightly, focus on trends: Top investors (like a16z) are just a ticket; stagnation in development after financing is the real danger signal. If they take the money but don’t take action, it means the project team is "laying flat". After saving money, one must pay attention to at least Twitter and the official website's updates.

2️⃣ Refuse to be a "time captive": Don’t be tied down by sunk costs. When a project starts to deviate, "changing positions" is more dignified than "sticking it out"; invest funds and energy into more productive targets (like Ostium).

3️⃣ Identify "liquidity joint liability": In the DeFi amusement park, if the underlying protocol (like Drift) has issues, downstream applications will inevitably crash. When firefighting, one must address the source; if you sense related risks, it’s best to withdraw first.

4️⃣ Beware of "points inflation" exploitation: Endless activities and points dilution essentially mean the project team is overextending the contributions of early users. Once you find that points become cheap, you must decisively exit. Early participation ironically becomes less advantageous, indicating that the project team does not care about early supporters. Reference blast.

No matter what, the market has also heated up recently. Let's look at the quarrels, let's look at RAVE, and let's look at cz's autobiography.

Bitcoin fell 2.09% with high trading volume, showing selling pressure.

The current market situation is that institutional attitudes remain firm, with approximately $240 million flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in a single day, and total holdings surpassing 721,000 coins. MicroStrategy purchased 3,468 Bitcoins during the same period, valued at about $250 million, and this increase has absorbed nearly 80% of the recent new supply. From a holding perspective, there are a large number of locked positions in the price range of $60,000 to $70,000, combined with this network completing the largest short deleveraging of the year, subsequent selling pressure may be alleviated.

Currently, the key risk points that need to be focused on are concentrated in three areas:
First, the ongoing tension in the geopolitical situation (failed negotiations are the direct cause);
Second, rising U.S. inflation data leading to high interest rate expectations;
Third, the downward signals appearing in technical analysis, with some analysts pointing out downward pressure in market structure, requiring vigilance against increased volatility in the short term.

#BTC #CryptoMarket

Resolv has cooled down, not just because it was hacked.

If this incident is understood merely as an ordinary security accident, it actually downplays the issue. What is truly exposed is not just the vulnerabilities at the contract level, but rather the core issues that many stablecoin protocols have been avoiding: on the surface, it looks large and structurally sound, but when issues arise, one realizes there isn't much genuine capital buffer to withstand risks.

That is the most dangerous part.

Resolv was able to attract market attention in the past primarily through two things. The data looked appealing. The TVL rose quickly, with a large influx of capital, naturally leading the market to categorize it as a project with "potential, popularity, and worth keeping an eye on." Next, the narrative was sophisticated enough. It didn't tell a simple and crude story of high returns, but rather a more complex and financial engineering-like stablecoin logic, appearing more mature and instilling a greater sense of trust.

The problem is that, many times, the market mistakes "appearing complex" for "being truly stable."

When everything is normal, complex mechanisms can indeed create a sense of security. Sources of returns can be explained, hedging structures can be explained, risk controls can be explained, and even how it operates under extreme market conditions can be articulated. However, these things hold true during favorable conditions and do not guarantee stability under real shocks. What truly determines whether a protocol can survive is not how many mechanisms it can clearly articulate, but whether it has a sufficiently solid foundation to absorb risks.

To put it bluntly, what a stablecoin protocol ultimately competes on is not the model but its financial backing.

As long as market sentiment is stable, liquidity is present, and users are willing to believe that the system is a complete process, many issues can be temporarily obscured. But once an attack, a run, or a loss of confidence truly occurs, what will be examined first is no longer the white paper but the balance sheet. At that moment, everyone will only look at one thing: if the system is breached today, who will cover the losses?

If there are no clear reserves, no sufficiently thick capital buffer, and no safety net independent of the growth narrative, then the so-called stability is, in essence, built on the premise that the market is still willing to believe that there are no issues. Once that premise is broken, the entire structure will quickly become fragile.

The real danger in Resolv's current situation lies here. The attack is certainly the trigger, but what truly prompts the market to reassess it is not "it was attacked," but rather "after it was attacked, people found that it did not have sufficient capacity to bear pressure." This indicates that many protocols usually present to the market are about growth, efficiency, and mechanisms, but what they lack most fundamentally, and crucially, is capital thickness.

This is why I feel that Resolv's issues should not be viewed merely as a hacker incident. It resembles a stress test that directly exposes vulnerabilities previously obscured by growth and narrative. Usually, people are willing to discuss mechanism innovation, capital efficiency, and return design, but when it comes to risk realization, the market only recognizes one thing: do you have real capital to absorb the losses?

Without this layer of buffer, no matter how beautiful the structure is, it is merely a paper stability.

As DeFi has developed to this point, the market is actually not lacking new stablecoin stories nor new protocol packaging. What is truly scarce has never been "smarter designs" but the ability to survive after incidents occur. Who can survive does not depend on how sophisticated it sounds during normal times, but on whether it still has a sufficiently solid foundation in the worst moments.

What Resolv has truly lost this time is not just the safety line of a project, but also the market's confidence in this type of "high narrative, low buffer" stablecoin structure.