JellyCrypto

TL;DR: 5 PM KST on 7/23, someone borrowed $400M on Deribit in 20 minutes. Not a bank, not a loan — options.
Taking a break from CLARITY today for something different. I dug up a piece of data almost nobody looks at.
A strange block just printed in Deribit BTC options. $430M went through in the same structure over 20 minutes. Open interest on all four legs rose by exactly 300 together — meaning it was one package, put together in a single shot.
But this isn't a directional bet. Someone actually borrowed money.
1. Box spread? That's really a loan
Combine four options a specific way — buy and sell calls and puts at two strikes — and you get a fixed amount at expiry no matter where price goes. Regardless of direction. That's a box spread.
A fixed amount at expiry? Then this isn't a bet, it's a money transaction. Pay premium now and receive more at expiry = you lent money. Receive now and pay back more at expiry = you borrowed. Zero directional exposure, zero gamma. A pure funding instrument.
That block yesterday — the seller is the one borrowing. A market maker (MM) funding itself.
2. Why borrow through options
Here's the core of it. Banks don't extend credit to crypto desks. On-chain lending is overcollateralized — you have to post more than you borrow — so it's expensive. So where do these desks fund cheaply? The box.
And the implied rate on this block is interesting. Around 4% annualized. Almost the same as short-term US rates.
What that means is — borrowing money in crypto costs about what the US government pays. The crypto credit premium is basically zero. Flip it around, and it means there's so much idle stablecoin sitting around that it's lining up to earn even 4%. Crypto is doing exactly what TradFi does with SPX boxes.
3. "So that's a bearish signal?" — No
Let's clear this misread up right here. There's $400M worth of puts in it, so isn't that downside hedging? No.
A box is delta zero. The deep-ITM leg and the deep-OTM leg offset each other, so there's no directional exposure. The big premium attached to the puts is just intrinsic value, not a directional bet. Gamma is zero too, so there's no dealer hedging pushing the market around.
Reading this as "big puts = crash hedge" takes you in the exact opposite direction from what the data says. This isn't direction, it's funding.
4. So what does it tell us?
Two things.
One — an MM scrambled together $400M of two-month (September expiry) inventory funding in 20 minutes. It isn't directional, but they're getting ready to absorb some big flow or volatility. It's indirect evidence for "something's coming by September," not for "which way."Two — and this is what I'm actually chasing. Where this cheap money goes.
5. Circumstantial: this money looks like it's headed to DeFi (not confirmed yet)
Honestly, this is still a hypothesis. But the picture is starting to form.
If you can fund at 4%, lending that money out above 4% is free carry. Where? DeFi lending markets like Morpho or Aave.
The circumstantial pieces:
USDC is flowing heavily into Morpho and Aerodrome right now.
Aave borrow rates spiked suddenly today. Circumstantial evidence that the lending market is heating up.Morpho has half of Aave's TVL but has overtaken it on fees (as of this week). A signal that borrow demand is concentrating on Morpho.
But to confirm this, we'd need on-chain prints of money moving from a Deribit wallet into a Morpho vault, or Morpho supply rates getting compressed right after the inflow. I haven't seen that far yet. So this is circumstantial, not fact. I'm not going to force a conclusion.
6. What you should actually take from this
This isn't a price prediction. It's looking at the plumbing.
While everyone else is drawing lines on charts, data like box-implied rates tells you how much money is sloshing around in CeFi and how easy funding is — before price does. Almost nobody watches this indicator.
What it's saying right now is — money is abundant, funding is cheap, and it's getting ready to move. Direction not yet decided.
Oh, one warning. Don't read this and go "I'll fund at 4% with a box and farm DeFi carry too." Deribit is European-style, so there's no early assignment risk — but copy this with American-style options (like SPY) and you'll get assigned early and blow up your account like the 2019 Robinhood box-spread blowups. This is desk infrastructure, not something retail should be touching.
The plumbing will do what plumbing does — we just watch where it leaks.
Thanks for reading.
I post these reads first on X — JellyCrypto.

KURZ ZUSAMMENGEFASST: KLARHEIT wird im Moment nicht umgesetzt. Und das liegt nicht daran, dass Demokraten sie blockieren. Oder dass Trump sie nicht durchdrücken könnte.
KLARHEIT wird nicht umgesetzt. Nicht weil die Demokraten dagegen sind, nicht weil Trump es nicht durchdrücken könnte. Sondern weil es für beide Seiten der profitable Weg ist, es nicht fertigzustellen. Lies dieses politische Spiel richtig, und du siehst auch, warum Bitcoin auf den Futures gerade mal knapp bei 66k gehalten wird. Genau da will ich heute einsteigen.
Zuerst eine kurze Notiz zu meinem letzten Beitrag
Ich habe gesagt, dass ich das Gerücht nicht gekauft habe, wonach das Weiße Haus die ethischen Bestimmungen des CLARITY-Acts bereits vereinbart hätte. Einer meiner Gründe war, dass der zentrale Streitpunkt noch nicht gelöst war.

TL;DR:
Das Elefant im Raum, den ich nicht ignorieren konnte? Heute glaube ich, ich habe sein Gesicht gesehen.
CT ist gerade in Aufruhr. Ich kaufe diese News nicht — es riecht nach einem Gerücht.
Aber es nicht zu glauben ist nicht dasselbe, als es mit 0 zu bepreisen.
Also habe ich ein paar Calls gekauft. Genau darum geht es heute.
Lassen wir zuerst die letzte Woche Revue passieren.
(https://x.com/JellyCrypto/status/2078778890563289288)
Ich war auf Short ausgerichtet.
Der Markt hatte eine Put-Struktur von 57k / 54k, die auf einen Besuch bei 57~54k hindeutete,
also bin ich dieser Aussage gefolgt und habe eine 60k Put-Option gekauft, die am 24. Juli ausläuft.

TL;DR :
The Iran war is getting serious. And now we can no longer ignore the elephant in the room.
Current time of writing: July 19, 6 PM KST.
My daily life is completely peaceful, but the Middle East is the exact opposite.
I’ve also seen multiple articles over the weekend about Hynix leverage blowing up.
The scale isn’t small, and with worsening conditions like this, it could significantly impact oil prices and prolong the war — I don’t see this as a very positive influence for the price of BTC.
However, after the July 17 US options expiry, Bitcoin dipped slightly but has already recovered to pre-expiry levels.
There are also some highly abnormal signals that I wanted to write about.
The market setupWhale contracts (the elephant)Order bookSpot/futures CVDExpected value, and approach.
1. Current Market Setup
This is the chart I actually posted in last week’s article.
(For the English viewer, the top says upper orders 66-70k; the bottom liquidity stands at 57-54, valid until July 24)
It was just a snapshot of that day’s situation, but a similar setup has been in the market for over 2 weeks now. And because it’s coming with short-dated expiries, it carries more credibility.
I try to avoid subjective price opinions as much as possible, but if the downside setup plays out, we could realistically visit 57~54k or even slightly lower.
The thing about downside setups is that even if it doesn’t trigger, the party who initiated these contracts doesn’t lose much (short put 57k + long put 54k -or more if shit show starts).
2. Whale Positions
Next is the whale contracts I examined. As someone who digs into options market data quite seriously… let’s just take a look.
I think it started coming in around Wednesday.
There are now 27,000 contracts stacked on the July 31 70k-72k call spread.
(1 contract = 1 BTC, so this is equivalent to 27,000 BTC.)
When it was only 2,000 contracts at first, I thought it might be hedging and brushed it off. But now, after 3-4 days, at 27,000 contracts… we can no longer ignore the elephant in the room.
I’m increasingly leaning toward this being a directional bet rather than hedging.
So, does that mean we should buy here?
3. Orderbook Liquidity
Before judging that, let’s check the divergence between futures and spot markets.
Coinglass
(Spot / Futures)
The temperature difference between the spot and futures is quite significant.
We can’t take this as an absolute indicator, but for now it looks like the market is being pulled up by futures order book support (63 → 64.9 over the weekend).
4. CVD
Looking at BTC CVD, this divergence is somewhat confirmed.
Futures CVD shows net buying, but spot CVD… well, it’s showing a different picture from futures.
5. Expected Value and Approach
First, a lot of people misunderstand this — I’m just a trader. What I write in these articles is my personal opinion, not a financial advice.
Given the gravity of the spread, think we’ll go above 70k. Considering the size, 73k~74k is definitely possible.
However, I’m not going to chase an upside play targeting 70k right now.
The risk factors I mentioned earlier are too large compared to the expected reward.
As someone who mainly plays options,
if time decays and the price drops, the chances of my position profiting decreases.However, the actual capital deployed would also decrease, reducing the burden.
Therefore, instead of taking a position immediately,
if we rise from the current price level, I’m willing to gladly give up the opportunity.
(At the time of writing, BTC trades at 64.5k)
However,
if the downside setup materializes within next week’s expiry, I’ll be happy to follow the whale position.
The article ended up being long today. Thanks for reading.
FYI, Jelly's the name of my dog.
I quit my job to begin my startup, which didn't work out I guess.
And here I am.

TL;DR: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass das Clarity Act-Gesetz verabschiedet wird, sieht derzeit ziemlich gering aus. Aber für jemanden könnte das eine Chance sein.
Bevor wir eintauchen, hier ist der Kontext.
Laut Polymarket sind die Chancen, dass der Clarity Act im Jahr 2026 in Gesetzesform unterzeichnet wird, auf 31% gefallen (von zuletzt 34%). Der Trend ist eindeutig rückläufig.
Wenn die Zeit abläuft, nehmen die Wahrscheinlichkeiten in Vorhersagemärkten auf natürliche Weise ab, ähnlich wie beim Theta Decay bei Optionen. Sobald die August-Pause beginnt, könnte diese Abnahme sich beschleunigen.
Allerdings haben Vorhersagemärkte kein Black-Scholes-ähnliches Preismodell. In Phasen extremer Angst können die Kurse deutlich unter der tatsächlichen Wahrscheinlichkeit liegen, weil es zu Ungleichgewichten bei der Liquidität kommt.