#Market_Update Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is keeping the financial world on alert, suggesting that the central bank "might" potentially reduce its balance sheet again in the future. Speaking on November 19th, the Governor's remarks, as reported by Xinhua News Agency, underscore the Fed's ongoing, complex path toward normalizing its monetary policy following years of aggressive expansion.
A Nod to Quantitative Tightening
The Fed's balance sheet, which swelled dramatically after the 2008 financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic, remains exceptionally large, holding trillions of dollars in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The process of reducing the balance sheet, known as Quantitative Tightening (QT), is a key tool for tightening financial conditions and complementing interest rate hikes.
While the Fed had previously undertaken a period of QT to shrink its holdings, Waller's comments suggest that even after that effort concludes, the central bank may not be finished. The ultimate size of the balance sheet is tied to the level of bank reserves deemed "ample" to ensure smooth functioning of the overnight money markets. Waller has previously indicated that the balance sheet may not need to shrink to pre-crisis levels, but he is a proponent of a continued, gradual reduction.
The Long Road to Normalization
The suggestion of another potential round of balance sheet reduction indicates that Waller and some of his colleagues believe there is still excess liquidity in the system. The Fed's objective is to move away from the emergency measures taken over the last decade and return its policy framework to a more conventional structure.
For investors and markets, the possibility of renewed QT introduces an element of long-term uncertainty. Shrinking the balance sheet reduces the Fed's demand for long-term debt, which can put upward pressure on longer-term interest rates and affect the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses. While the immediate focus is on interest rate decisions, Governor Waller's remarks serve as a crucial reminder that the Fed's balance sheet remains a powerful, active tool in the central bank's efforts to achieve its inflation and employment mandates.