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crypstockss
having fun. #bitcoin class of 2017.
Slay your heroes, do your own research and don't blame others for your mistakes.
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The view into next week for $BTC :
June 13 (tomorrow): MSCI includes SPCX in Global Index. Passive buying begins.
June 16-17: Fed meeting. Kevin Warsh's DEBUT as Chair. Rate decision + forward
guidance.
68.8% probability of ZERO rate cuts in 2026.
The bull case: SPCX pops, liquidity returns, Warsh signals flexibility.
The bear case: SPCX fades, Warsh hawkish, $60K retested.
Position sizing and risk management matter more than direction calls. The gauntlet isn't
over.
June 13 (tomorrow): MSCI includes SPCX in Global Index. Passive buying begins.
June 16-17: Fed meeting. Kevin Warsh's DEBUT as Chair. Rate decision + forward
guidance.
68.8% probability of ZERO rate cuts in 2026.
The bull case: SPCX pops, liquidity returns, Warsh signals flexibility.
The bear case: SPCX fades, Warsh hawkish, $60K retested.
Position sizing and risk management matter more than direction calls. The gauntlet isn't
over.
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$BTC critical levels heading into the SPCX reaction + weekend:
$58,000-$59,000 = June low zone. Must hold.
$62,000-$63,000 = current.
$65,000 = first recovery sign.
$68,000 = structural improvement.
$70,000+ = correction repair begins.
For $ETH : $1,600 = floor. Below = $1,500 zone.
Two weekend wildcards:
SPCX first-day reaction (sets risk-on or risk-off mood).
Fed meeting Monday/Tuesday June 16-17 (Warsh debut).
The next 72 hours are loaded.
$58,000-$59,000 = June low zone. Must hold.
$62,000-$63,000 = current.
$65,000 = first recovery sign.
$68,000 = structural improvement.
$70,000+ = correction repair begins.
For $ETH : $1,600 = floor. Below = $1,500 zone.
Two weekend wildcards:
SPCX first-day reaction (sets risk-on or risk-off mood).
Fed meeting Monday/Tuesday June 16-17 (Warsh debut).
The next 72 hours are loaded.
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SpaceX merged with xAI (Elon's AI company) BEFORE going public.
What you're buying when you buy SPCX:
Rockets (Falcon, Starship, Mars missions).
Starlink ($18.67B revenue from satellite internet).
xAI (Grok AI models).
18,712 $BTC ($1.18B).
One stock. Four mega-sectors. Plus crypto exposure.
SPCX isn't just a space company anymore. It's a conglomerate with Bitcoin on the
books.
What you're buying when you buy SPCX:
Rockets (Falcon, Starship, Mars missions).
Starlink ($18.67B revenue from satellite internet).
xAI (Grok AI models).
18,712 $BTC ($1.18B).
One stock. Four mega-sectors. Plus crypto exposure.
SPCX isn't just a space company anymore. It's a conglomerate with Bitcoin on the
books.
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If SPCX rallies from here, Elon Musk becomes the first person in history to have a net
worth above $1 TRILLION. His ~49% SpaceX stake at $1.75T valuation = ~$866.5 billion. Add Tesla, xAI, other holdings. The math gets there fast. The crypto connection: The world's first trillionaire runs a company holding 18,712 $BTC . He merged xAI (which runs Grok) INTO SpaceX pre-IPO. SpaceX's AI + rockets + crypto treasury = the most ambitious corporate structure ever. Love him or hate him, Musk's bet on $BTC just went mainstream.
worth above $1 TRILLION. His ~49% SpaceX stake at $1.75T valuation = ~$866.5 billion. Add Tesla, xAI, other holdings. The math gets there fast. The crypto connection: The world's first trillionaire runs a company holding 18,712 $BTC . He merged xAI (which runs Grok) INTO SpaceX pre-IPO. SpaceX's AI + rockets + crypto treasury = the most ambitious corporate structure ever. Love him or hate him, Musk's bet on $BTC just went mainstream.
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The capital rotation thesis could REVERSE starting today.
Here's the logic:
SpaceX subscription window (June 7-11) locked up stablecoins in smart contracts.
TODAY: allocations finalize. Unused USDC gets RELEASED.
TOMORROW: MSCI inclusion triggers passive buying (new demand source).
If SpaceX pops on open, risk-on returns to ALL risk assets including $BTC .
If SpaceX flops, capital rotates BACK to crypto fast.
Either way, the liquidity pressure that crushed crypto for 3 weeks should ease after
today.
Here's the logic:
SpaceX subscription window (June 7-11) locked up stablecoins in smart contracts.
TODAY: allocations finalize. Unused USDC gets RELEASED.
TOMORROW: MSCI inclusion triggers passive buying (new demand source).
If SpaceX pops on open, risk-on returns to ALL risk assets including $BTC .
If SpaceX flops, capital rotates BACK to crypto fast.
Either way, the liquidity pressure that crushed crypto for 3 weeks should ease after
today.
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Strategy CEO Phong Le just went on CNBC to clarify the 32 $BTC sale:
"It was a PROCESS TEST of our market-making strategy. Not a shift in our Bitcoin
thesis."
The context:
Strategy holds 843,706 BTC at $75,699 average.
They sold 32 BTC (0.0038% of the stack).
Le said they buy 10-20 BTC for every one sold.
The net effect: Strategy is still a massive NET BUYER.
The "Saylor sold" panic was overblown. The CEO just confirmed it on national TV.
"It was a PROCESS TEST of our market-making strategy. Not a shift in our Bitcoin
thesis."
The context:
Strategy holds 843,706 BTC at $75,699 average.
They sold 32 BTC (0.0038% of the stack).
Le said they buy 10-20 BTC for every one sold.
The net effect: Strategy is still a massive NET BUYER.
The "Saylor sold" panic was overblown. The CEO just confirmed it on national TV.
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Here's the moment that matters: at 9:30 AM ET today, SPCX opens on
Nasdaq with ONLY 4% of shares floating.
That's roughly 22.22 million shares out of 555.6 million issued.
Why this matters for $BTC :
Thin float = extreme price moves possible.
If SPCX pops big, risk-on mood could lift crypto.
If SPCX sells off, it confirms the cautious thesis.
The first hour of trading will set the tone for the entire crypto weekend
Nasdaq with ONLY 4% of shares floating.
That's roughly 22.22 million shares out of 555.6 million issued.
Why this matters for $BTC :
Thin float = extreme price moves possible.
If SPCX pops big, risk-on mood could lift crypto.
If SPCX sells off, it confirms the cautious thesis.
The first hour of trading will set the tone for the entire crypto weekend
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On Hyperliquid, SpaceX perps are trading at a MASSIVE premium to the $135 IPO
price.
SPCX-USDC perp: $203-$216 range. That's +50% to +60% over the offering price.
What this tells you:
Crypto markets priced SpaceX HIGHER than Wall Street before the bell even rang.
Funding rates have run steeply positive since launch.
Arbitrageurs will likely short the perp and buy real SPCX shares today.
$HYPE 's infrastructure is pricing the world's largest IPO in real time, 24/7. That's the
disruption thesis in action.
price.
SPCX-USDC perp: $203-$216 range. That's +50% to +60% over the offering price.
What this tells you:
Crypto markets priced SpaceX HIGHER than Wall Street before the bell even rang.
Funding rates have run steeply positive since launch.
Arbitrageurs will likely short the perp and buy real SPCX shares today.
$HYPE 's infrastructure is pricing the world's largest IPO in real time, 24/7. That's the
disruption thesis in action.
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MSCI just announced: SPCX will be added to its Global Standard Index TOMORROW,
June 13.
Why this is HUGE for $BTC :
Index inclusion means PASSIVE funds (ETFs, pension funds, sovereign wealth) are
FORCED to buy SPCX.
SPCX balance sheet contains 18,712 BTC.
Passive buying of SPCX = indirect institutional BTC demand.
The math: trillions of dollars in passive vehicles will now have exposure to Bitcoin
through SpaceX. Whether they know it or not.
Index inclusion is the quiet structural catalyst nobody's talking about.
June 13.
Why this is HUGE for $BTC :
Index inclusion means PASSIVE funds (ETFs, pension funds, sovereign wealth) are
FORCED to buy SPCX.
SPCX balance sheet contains 18,712 BTC.
Passive buying of SPCX = indirect institutional BTC demand.
The math: trillions of dollars in passive vehicles will now have exposure to Bitcoin
through SpaceX. Whether they know it or not.
Index inclusion is the quiet structural catalyst nobody's talking about.
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Yahoo Finance just debunked the biggest narrative of the past 3 weeks:
"Did SpaceX's IPO really sink $BTC ? No."
The evidence:
SpaceX didn't price until June 11. It doesn't trade until today, June 12.
The bulk of BTC's decline happened BEFORE a single share changed hands.
Onchain data shows no abnormal crypto-to-fiat exodus during the crash window.
The real culprits: ETF outflows, leverage liquidations, macro pressure, sticky inflation.
SpaceX took the blame. The data says it wasn't the cause. Don't confuse correlation
with causation.
"Did SpaceX's IPO really sink $BTC ? No."
The evidence:
SpaceX didn't price until June 11. It doesn't trade until today, June 12.
The bulk of BTC's decline happened BEFORE a single share changed hands.
Onchain data shows no abnormal crypto-to-fiat exodus during the crash window.
The real culprits: ETF outflows, leverage liquidations, macro pressure, sticky inflation.
SpaceX took the blame. The data says it wasn't the cause. Don't confuse correlation
with causation.
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SpaceX's IPO just went live on SOLANA too.
Sunrise and Backpack Securities launched a tokenized version of SPCX on $SOL 's
blockchain, the SAME DAY as the Nasdaq listing.
The killer detail: unlike most tokenized stocks, this SPCX token is REDEEMABLE for
actual SpaceX shares. You can transfer them to a traditional brokerage.
24/7 trading. Global access. Actual equity redemption.
This isn't a synthetic derivative. It's real stock on a blockchain. The tokenization thesis
just got its biggest proof point. $SOL $BTC
Sunrise and Backpack Securities launched a tokenized version of SPCX on $SOL 's
blockchain, the SAME DAY as the Nasdaq listing.
The killer detail: unlike most tokenized stocks, this SPCX token is REDEEMABLE for
actual SpaceX shares. You can transfer them to a traditional brokerage.
24/7 trading. Global access. Actual equity redemption.
This isn't a synthetic derivative. It's real stock on a blockchain. The tokenization thesis
just got its biggest proof point. $SOL $BTC
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Oppenheimer just became the first Wall Street firm to cover SpaceX. Their call:
OUTPERFORM, $190 target.
That's +41% upside from the $135 IPO price.
Analyst Timothy Horan's thesis: no other company does what SpaceX does. Period.
Why $BTC holders should care:
If SPCX rallies to $190, SpaceX's 18,712 BTC become worth more on paper.
Under FASB rules, BTC gains flow directly into SpaceX earnings.
A strong SPCX = bullish BTC headline every quarter.
Wall Street's first SpaceX call is aggressively bullish. The BTC correlation loop starts
now. $BTC
OUTPERFORM, $190 target.
That's +41% upside from the $135 IPO price.
Analyst Timothy Horan's thesis: no other company does what SpaceX does. Period.
Why $BTC holders should care:
If SPCX rallies to $190, SpaceX's 18,712 BTC become worth more on paper.
Under FASB rules, BTC gains flow directly into SpaceX earnings.
A strong SPCX = bullish BTC headline every quarter.
Wall Street's first SpaceX call is aggressively bullish. The BTC correlation loop starts
now. $BTC
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SpaceX starts trading TODAY on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX. The
LARGEST IPO in history.
$75 billion raised. $135 per share. $1.75 TRILLION valuation.
The $BTC headline? SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC in Coinbase Prime custody.
That's $1.18 billion in Bitcoin now sitting on a PUBLIC company's balance sheet. Every
single SPCX buyer becomes an indirect $BTC holder.
Oppenheimer already set a $190 target (+41%). MSCI adds SPCX to its Global Index
TOMORROW, forcing passive funds to buy.
The largest company to ever go public holds Bitcoin. Today isn't just a stock market
event. It's a crypto milestone.
LARGEST IPO in history.
$75 billion raised. $135 per share. $1.75 TRILLION valuation.
The $BTC headline? SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC in Coinbase Prime custody.
That's $1.18 billion in Bitcoin now sitting on a PUBLIC company's balance sheet. Every
single SPCX buyer becomes an indirect $BTC holder.
Oppenheimer already set a $190 target (+41%). MSCI adds SPCX to its Global Index
TOMORROW, forcing passive funds to buy.
The largest company to ever go public holds Bitcoin. Today isn't just a stock market
event. It's a crypto milestone.
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$BTC at $62K. Fear and Greed at 9. Everyone says it's over.
But today three things happened simultaneously:
The largest IPO in HISTORY priced, holding 8,285 $BTC .
The FIFA World Cup launched with Kraken as Official Crypto Partner.
Japan's three biggest banks announced a joint stablecoin.
The price says fear. The world says adoption.
Fear and Greed hits 9 when everyone has already sold. That's math, not opinion. The
sellers are exhausted. What's left is the question of who buys next.
History says: it's usually not who you'd expect. $BTC $ETH
But today three things happened simultaneously:
The largest IPO in HISTORY priced, holding 8,285 $BTC .
The FIFA World Cup launched with Kraken as Official Crypto Partner.
Japan's three biggest banks announced a joint stablecoin.
The price says fear. The world says adoption.
Fear and Greed hits 9 when everyone has already sold. That's math, not opinion. The
sellers are exhausted. What's left is the question of who buys next.
History says: it's usually not who you'd expect. $BTC $ETH
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Wild stat: after today, SpaceX's quarterly earnings reports will MOVE $BTC sentiment.
Under new FASB rules:
SpaceX must report 8,285 BTC at fair market value every quarter.
Bitcoin price changes hit SpaceX's NET INCOME directly.
Analysts covering SPCX stock will now track Bitcoin as a variable.
Translation: the world's most valuable private-turned-public company just became a
BTC price amplifier.
Good quarters for $BTC = good headlines for SPCX. And vice versa. The correlation
loop begins tomorrow.
Under new FASB rules:
SpaceX must report 8,285 BTC at fair market value every quarter.
Bitcoin price changes hit SpaceX's NET INCOME directly.
Analysts covering SPCX stock will now track Bitcoin as a variable.
Translation: the world's most valuable private-turned-public company just became a
BTC price amplifier.
Good quarters for $BTC = good headlines for SPCX. And vice versa. The correlation
loop begins tomorrow.
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$BTC critical levels for the triple-event day:
$55,000-$58,000 = bear cycle zone (hot CPI + continued drain).
$59,101 = June 5 low, absolute must-hold.
$62,687 = current.
$65,000 = reclaim for stabilization.
$68,000 = structural improvement begins.
For $ETH : $1,600 = cycle floor zone. Below = $1,500 risk.
CPI reaction + SpaceX pricing + Fed week = max volatility zone.
Risk management is everything. Size down, stay nimble.
$55,000-$58,000 = bear cycle zone (hot CPI + continued drain).
$59,101 = June 5 low, absolute must-hold.
$62,687 = current.
$65,000 = reclaim for stabilization.
$68,000 = structural improvement begins.
For $ETH : $1,600 = cycle floor zone. Below = $1,500 risk.
CPI reaction + SpaceX pricing + Fed week = max volatility zone.
Risk management is everything. Size down, stay nimble.
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With SpaceX IPO today and Fed next week, $BTC has TWO event horizons.
The calendar:
June 11 (TODAY): SpaceX pricing + CPI data.
June 12 (tomorrow): SpaceX SPCX starts trading on Nasdaq.
June 16-17: Fed meeting, Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair.
The honest outlook:
If CPI cools AND SpaceX prices smoothly = conditions improve for crypto.
If CPI hot AND SpaceX absorbs more capital = $60K test or worse.
The next 7 days will define June. Position sizing matters more than direction calls.
The calendar:
June 11 (TODAY): SpaceX pricing + CPI data.
June 12 (tomorrow): SpaceX SPCX starts trading on Nasdaq.
June 16-17: Fed meeting, Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair.
The honest outlook:
If CPI cools AND SpaceX prices smoothly = conditions improve for crypto.
If CPI hot AND SpaceX absorbs more capital = $60K test or worse.
The next 7 days will define June. Position sizing matters more than direction calls.
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$ZEC and $HYPE are now LEADING losses as traders bet against a bounce.
The pattern:
ZEC: after +13% post-emergency upgrade, giving back gains.
HYPE: after record ATH in May, cooling sharply.
What it tells you:
Even the strongest May performers aren't immune in Extreme Fear.
When F and G hits 9, correlations approach 1. Everything sells.
The only safe haven right now is cash/stablecoins.
In max fear, even the winners bleed. Stay selective.
The pattern:
ZEC: after +13% post-emergency upgrade, giving back gains.
HYPE: after record ATH in May, cooling sharply.
What it tells you:
Even the strongest May performers aren't immune in Extreme Fear.
When F and G hits 9, correlations approach 1. Everything sells.
The only safe haven right now is cash/stablecoins.
In max fear, even the winners bleed. Stay selective.
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CoinDesk published their bearish scenario for $BTC today:
"If CPI comes in hot, bitcoin could tumble below $60,000."
The math behind it:
Hot CPI = Fed rate cuts off the table for 2026.
68.8% already pricing ZERO cuts.
Some traders now price possible rate HIKES.
$BTC at $62K with no rate cut catalyst = gravitational pull toward $55-58K.
The honest read: the downside risk is real. $60K isn't a random number, it's a macro
scenario that depends on data dropping TODAY.
Risk management matters more than conviction right now.
"If CPI comes in hot, bitcoin could tumble below $60,000."
The math behind it:
Hot CPI = Fed rate cuts off the table for 2026.
68.8% already pricing ZERO cuts.
Some traders now price possible rate HIKES.
$BTC at $62K with no rate cut catalyst = gravitational pull toward $55-58K.
The honest read: the downside risk is real. $60K isn't a random number, it's a macro
scenario that depends on data dropping TODAY.
Risk management matters more than conviction right now.
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After SpaceX prices tonight, the crypto liquidity drain COULD reverse.
Here's why:
The subscription window (June 7-11) locked up stablecoin funds in smart contracts.
Once allocations finalize, unused USDC gets RELEASED back to exchange spot
markets.
The opportunity cost that suppressed $BTC buying power for 5 days goes away.
The scenarios for tomorrow:
SpaceX pops big = risk-on mood, could lift all boats including $BTC .
SpaceX flops = capital rotation reverses FAST back to crypto.
Either way, the liquidity pressure should ease after pricing.
Here's why:
The subscription window (June 7-11) locked up stablecoin funds in smart contracts.
Once allocations finalize, unused USDC gets RELEASED back to exchange spot
markets.
The opportunity cost that suppressed $BTC buying power for 5 days goes away.
The scenarios for tomorrow:
SpaceX pops big = risk-on mood, could lift all boats including $BTC .
SpaceX flops = capital rotation reverses FAST back to crypto.
Either way, the liquidity pressure should ease after pricing.
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