Exchange flows, miner activity, and stablecoin positioning all indicate that the crypto market is poised for a shift in liquidity conditions, potentially leading to a broader risk-on rotation, especially as the Fed approaches a monetary crossroads. The case for a Fed pivot would be strengthened by an unexpected decline in labour figures, which would encourage riskier assets like Bitcoin.
The second half of June saw some of the highest year-to-date exchange outflows, with some days topping 10,000 BTC. This is expected to favour long-term capital moving away from custodial platforms and towards self-custody or cold storage. Persistent outflows point to a buildup and diminished sell pressure, a traditional scenario ahead of projected monetary easing.
Despite BTC's consistent price behaviour above $100,000, miners are not aggressively selling coins. Their current caution indicates confidence in price sustainability, which may be supported by anticipation of easing financial circumstances.
The supply ratios of USDC and USDT on exchanges have been continuously declining since mid-June. This represents the accumulation of capital from exchanges rather than active deployment into spot markets. This might indicate that market players are on the sidelines, awaiting confirmation.
Written by Novaque Research
