The recent trend in our custom BTC Realized Dominance metricâseparating the realized cap into Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH)âreveals a critical shift in market structure and sentiment.
đ The decline in STH Realized Cap (now at ~45%) reflects a decrease in on-chain activity from recent buyers. This implies that new supply entering the market is either capitulating at a loss or aging into LTH status, reducing short-term speculative pressure.
đ” Conversely, LTH Realized Cap is increasing, suggesting that long-held coins are being moved at a profitâtypical of late-stage bull markets. Importantly, the rise also reflects aging supply, as short-term coins transition into the long-term cohort, signaling strong holder conviction.
đ The divergence between falling STH Realized Cap and rising LTH Realized Cap highlights a supply transfer dynamic: recent entrants struggle with profitability amid lackluster price action, while long-term participants maintain control of an increasing share of network value.
đ§ This transition often precedes bullish reversals, as lower short-term realized cap reduces sell pressure and creates conditions for more sustainable upsideâshould fresh demand return.
đ In short: The market is consolidating, weak hands are exiting, and strong hands are gaining dominance.
đ Explore this metric and more in my custom CryptoQuant dashboard:
Written by Crazzyblockk
