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As of December 25, 19:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin is around $87800, with a slight increase of about 0.3% for the day. The Christmas holiday is characterized by low liquidity and narrow fluctuations, making it prone to 'spikes'.
1. Core Market and Key Levels
• Daily Range: $86760-$88175, with a center around $87600-$87900.
• Support Levels: 87000 (daily), 86000-86500 (core), 85000 (strong support).
• Resistance Levels: 88000-88500 (daily), 89500, 90000 (psychological level).
• Volume Sentiment: Trading volume has shrunk by over 45% compared to usual, perpetual contract open interest has decreased, and the fear and greed index is around 24 (extreme fear).
2. Technical Analysis and Trend Judgment
• Daily Chart: Moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD is weak, representing a weak consolidation after breaking key levels, not a clear bottom formation.
• Evening Outlook: There is a high probability of continuing the narrow fluctuations between 87000 and 88000; under low liquidity, large whale transfers and market rumors may trigger rapid volatility; if it breaks below 86000, it may test 85000; if it breaks above 88500 with volume, it may test 89500-90000.
3. Operation Suggestions
• Position: Light positions or wait and see, avoid heavy positions, with a single transaction not exceeding 5% of total funds.
• Strategy: Sell high and buy low within the range, try to go long with light positions around 87000-87500, stop loss below 86000; try to go short with light positions around 88000-88500, stop loss above 89000.
• Risk Control: Strict stop loss, beware of 'liquidity traps' causing sudden spikes without warning, evening volatility may intensify.
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1. Core Market and Key Levels
• Daily Range: $86760-$88175, with a center around $87600-$87900.
• Support Levels: 87000 (daily), 86000-86500 (core), 85000 (strong support).
• Resistance Levels: 88000-88500 (daily), 89500, 90000 (psychological level).
• Volume Sentiment: Trading volume has shrunk by over 45% compared to usual, perpetual contract open interest has decreased, and the fear and greed index is around 24 (extreme fear).
2. Technical Analysis and Trend Judgment
• Daily Chart: Moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD is weak, representing a weak consolidation after breaking key levels, not a clear bottom formation.
• Evening Outlook: There is a high probability of continuing the narrow fluctuations between 87000 and 88000; under low liquidity, large whale transfers and market rumors may trigger rapid volatility; if it breaks below 86000, it may test 85000; if it breaks above 88500 with volume, it may test 89500-90000.
3. Operation Suggestions
• Position: Light positions or wait and see, avoid heavy positions, with a single transaction not exceeding 5% of total funds.
• Strategy: Sell high and buy low within the range, try to go long with light positions around 87000-87500, stop loss below 86000; try to go short with light positions around 88000-88500, stop loss above 89000.
• Risk Control: Strict stop loss, beware of 'liquidity traps' causing sudden spikes without warning, evening volatility may intensify.
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As of December 25, 2025, 16:10 (UTC+8), the spot price of Ethereum (ETH) is approximately $3020, with a slight increase of 0.2% over 24H. Trading is light and fluctuating during the Christmas holiday, with strong correlation to Bitcoin.
1. Core Data Overview
• Price: approximately $3020; 24H fluctuation range $2990-$3045
• Market Cap: approximately $365.6 billion, firmly holding the second position in crypto assets
• Funds: Slight net outflow of ETF in the short term, on-chain whale addresses continue to increase their holdings, exchange reserves hit a multi-year low
• Indicators: RSI≈52 neutral, MACD close to the zero axis, momentum is weak; Bollinger Bands are tightening, volatility is decreasing
2. Key Support and Resistance
• Support Level: $2990 (intraday low) → $2930 (recent fluctuation lower bound) → $2880 (strong support)
• Resistance Level: $3060 (Bollinger Bands upper band) → $3100 (key psychological/trend line resistance) → $3150 (medium-term strong resistance)
3. Long and Short and Operation Suggestions
• Bullish Logic: ETH ecosystem is active, long-term inflow trend of ETF funds remains unchanged, whales are increasing holdings, and interest rate cut expectations support risk assets
• Bearish Logic: Short-term outflow of ETF funds, futures open contracts have declined, overall market sentiment is cautious, with significant selling pressure above
• Operation Suggestions:
◦ Short-term: Light position, sell high and buy low in the range of $2990-$3060, reduce position if the level breaks
◦ Medium-term: Increase position if it stabilizes above $3100, stop-loss and exit if it falls below $2930
◦ Risk Control: Low liquidity during Christmas is prone to "spike", strictly control position (≤30%), and set stop-loss.
1. Core Data Overview
• Price: approximately $3020; 24H fluctuation range $2990-$3045
• Market Cap: approximately $365.6 billion, firmly holding the second position in crypto assets
• Funds: Slight net outflow of ETF in the short term, on-chain whale addresses continue to increase their holdings, exchange reserves hit a multi-year low
• Indicators: RSI≈52 neutral, MACD close to the zero axis, momentum is weak; Bollinger Bands are tightening, volatility is decreasing
2. Key Support and Resistance
• Support Level: $2990 (intraday low) → $2930 (recent fluctuation lower bound) → $2880 (strong support)
• Resistance Level: $3060 (Bollinger Bands upper band) → $3100 (key psychological/trend line resistance) → $3150 (medium-term strong resistance)
3. Long and Short and Operation Suggestions
• Bullish Logic: ETH ecosystem is active, long-term inflow trend of ETF funds remains unchanged, whales are increasing holdings, and interest rate cut expectations support risk assets
• Bearish Logic: Short-term outflow of ETF funds, futures open contracts have declined, overall market sentiment is cautious, with significant selling pressure above
• Operation Suggestions:
◦ Short-term: Light position, sell high and buy low in the range of $2990-$3060, reduce position if the level breaks
◦ Medium-term: Increase position if it stabilizes above $3100, stop-loss and exit if it falls below $2930
◦ Risk Control: Low liquidity during Christmas is prone to "spike", strictly control position (≤30%), and set stop-loss.
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As of December 24, 2025, 14:50, BTC is approximately $87,600, down about 1.8% in 24 hours; ETH is approximately $2,960, down about 1.6% in 24 hours. Overall, it shows characteristics of a holiday market with reduced volume, weak fluctuations, and slight rebounds after testing support, with low liquidity.
1. Core Market Overview
• BTC: Rebounded to around 88,400 after dipping to 86,542 in the early morning, currently consolidating in a narrow range of 87,500-88,000; resistance levels at 88,400, 89,500, and 90,000, with support at 86,500 and 85,300. Continuous four-hour downtrend, MACD shows a death cross below the zero line, daily trend is bearish, and rebound momentum is insufficient.
• ETH: Synchronized dip to 2,899 before rebounding to 2,987, currently stable at 2,950-2,970; resistance levels at 3,000 and 3,050, with support at 2,900 and 2,850. Maintaining the key support at 2,900, but selling pressure at the 3,000 level is evident, with BTC showing weak fluctuations.
2. Key Drivers and Judgments
• Drivers: U.S. GDP exceeded expectations (4.3%), leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, year-end capital return, and holiday liquidity contraction, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment among bulls and bears.
• Conclusion: Short-term continuation of range fluctuations, with BTC focusing on stabilizing at 87,000-88,000, and ETH watching the tug-of-war between 2,900-3,000; without incremental capital, it will be difficult to break through, with operations mainly focusing on light position range trading.
1. Core Market Overview
• BTC: Rebounded to around 88,400 after dipping to 86,542 in the early morning, currently consolidating in a narrow range of 87,500-88,000; resistance levels at 88,400, 89,500, and 90,000, with support at 86,500 and 85,300. Continuous four-hour downtrend, MACD shows a death cross below the zero line, daily trend is bearish, and rebound momentum is insufficient.
• ETH: Synchronized dip to 2,899 before rebounding to 2,987, currently stable at 2,950-2,970; resistance levels at 3,000 and 3,050, with support at 2,900 and 2,850. Maintaining the key support at 2,900, but selling pressure at the 3,000 level is evident, with BTC showing weak fluctuations.
2. Key Drivers and Judgments
• Drivers: U.S. GDP exceeded expectations (4.3%), leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, year-end capital return, and holiday liquidity contraction, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment among bulls and bears.
• Conclusion: Short-term continuation of range fluctuations, with BTC focusing on stabilizing at 87,000-88,000, and ETH watching the tug-of-war between 2,900-3,000; without incremental capital, it will be difficult to break through, with operations mainly focusing on light position range trading.
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As of December 21, 2025, 15:15 (UTC+8), the core market and analysis of Ethereum (ETH) are as follows:
• Current Price: Approximately $2,975 (≈¥20,950), a slight decrease of about 0.06% in the last 24 hours, showing a sideways movement.
• Intraday Range: Support at $2,935, resistance at $2,995, with a short-term bias towards consolidation.
• Technical Analysis: BOLL is narrowing, SAR is close to the current price, short-term direction is unclear; MA5/MA10 are intertwined, mid-term needs to hold above $2,980 to test $3,050; breaking below $2,935 may lead to a dip to $2,840–$2,770.
• Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index is about 21 (extreme fear), short-term bias is bearish but the long-term trend has not turned bearish.
• Fundamentals: Performance improved after the Fusaka upgrade, Gas Limit up to 60M, but short-term struggles against macro factors and BTC correlation.
Operational Suggestions
• Short-term: Wait and see or operate with light positions, a breakout above $2,995 could allow for small long positions, while breaking below $2,935 should trigger a stop-loss.
• Mid-term: Wait for confirmation of a bottom in the $2,900–$3,000 range before considering adding positions.
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• Current Price: Approximately $2,975 (≈¥20,950), a slight decrease of about 0.06% in the last 24 hours, showing a sideways movement.
• Intraday Range: Support at $2,935, resistance at $2,995, with a short-term bias towards consolidation.
• Technical Analysis: BOLL is narrowing, SAR is close to the current price, short-term direction is unclear; MA5/MA10 are intertwined, mid-term needs to hold above $2,980 to test $3,050; breaking below $2,935 may lead to a dip to $2,840–$2,770.
• Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index is about 21 (extreme fear), short-term bias is bearish but the long-term trend has not turned bearish.
• Fundamentals: Performance improved after the Fusaka upgrade, Gas Limit up to 60M, but short-term struggles against macro factors and BTC correlation.
Operational Suggestions
• Short-term: Wait and see or operate with light positions, a breakout above $2,995 could allow for small long positions, while breaking below $2,935 should trigger a stop-loss.
• Mid-term: Wait for confirmation of a bottom in the $2,900–$3,000 range before considering adding positions.
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December 23 Ethereum current market analysis
• Price: $2998, slight increase of **+0.2%** in 24 hours, fluctuating steadily, not breaking away from the recent $2900-$3100 range.
• Opinion: Short-term fluctuations tend to be bullish, cautiously chasing highs, waiting for a breakthrough at $3100 or a confirmation of a pullback at $2900 before making further moves.
I. Key Price Levels
• Resistance: $3100-$3150 (strong daily resistance, if broken, look for $3200+); $3200-$3250 (secondary target).
• Support: $2930-$2900 (strong daily support, if lost, look for a drop to $2880); $2880 (mid-term rebound starting point).
II. Technical Analysis
• 4H/1H shows bullish tendencies, but the 15M cycle is adjusting, lacking clear reversal signals, and may consolidate in the short term.
• RSI is neutral to strong (not exceeding 70), with moderate volume, no obvious overheating or panic, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continues.
III. Funds and Sentiment
• Institutional capital differentiation: some institutions are increasing their holdings, ETF has some capital outflow in the short term, and the layout is still in the speculative stage.
• Market sentiment is neutral, mainly consolidating with fluctuations, waiting for Bitcoin to lead or for its own breakthrough at key levels to activate momentum.
IV. Operational Suggestions
• Holding: Maintain light positions, reduce positions gradually near $3100, and add positions if it stabilizes on a pullback to $2900-$2930.
• Empty positions: Mainly observe, do not chase highs; if it breaks $3100 with volume, a small position can be taken to go long, but if it falls below $2900, abandon long positions.
• Risk Control: Single position ≤5%, set stop-loss below support by $30-$50 (e.g., $2870), to avoid heavy speculative trading in fluctuating markets.
• Price: $2998, slight increase of **+0.2%** in 24 hours, fluctuating steadily, not breaking away from the recent $2900-$3100 range.
• Opinion: Short-term fluctuations tend to be bullish, cautiously chasing highs, waiting for a breakthrough at $3100 or a confirmation of a pullback at $2900 before making further moves.
I. Key Price Levels
• Resistance: $3100-$3150 (strong daily resistance, if broken, look for $3200+); $3200-$3250 (secondary target).
• Support: $2930-$2900 (strong daily support, if lost, look for a drop to $2880); $2880 (mid-term rebound starting point).
II. Technical Analysis
• 4H/1H shows bullish tendencies, but the 15M cycle is adjusting, lacking clear reversal signals, and may consolidate in the short term.
• RSI is neutral to strong (not exceeding 70), with moderate volume, no obvious overheating or panic, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continues.
III. Funds and Sentiment
• Institutional capital differentiation: some institutions are increasing their holdings, ETF has some capital outflow in the short term, and the layout is still in the speculative stage.
• Market sentiment is neutral, mainly consolidating with fluctuations, waiting for Bitcoin to lead or for its own breakthrough at key levels to activate momentum.
IV. Operational Suggestions
• Holding: Maintain light positions, reduce positions gradually near $3100, and add positions if it stabilizes on a pullback to $2900-$2930.
• Empty positions: Mainly observe, do not chase highs; if it breaks $3100 with volume, a small position can be taken to go long, but if it falls below $2900, abandon long positions.
• Risk Control: Single position ≤5%, set stop-loss below support by $30-$50 (e.g., $2870), to avoid heavy speculative trading in fluctuating markets.
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December 22 Ethereum (ETH) Evening Market Overview (19:40, UTC+8)
• Current Price: Approximately $3045, +1.5% for the day, fluctuating in conjunction with Bitcoin, leaning towards a range-bound speculation.
• Core View: Focus on the breakthrough of resistance at 3050-3060 and support at 2970-3000 this evening, with liquidity thin at year-end, volatility may increase, and operations should be short-term oriented.
1. Key Price Levels (USD)
• Resistance: First level 3050-3060 (intraday high + short-term concentrated trading area); Second level 3100 (round number + psychological pressure); Third level 3170 (previous holding area).
• Support: First level 3000 (round number + intraday consolidation center); Second level 2970-2980 (intraday low + buying support); Third level 2940 (yesterday's pullback low).
2. Technical Analysis (4-hour + Daily)
• 4-hour: Price near the middle band of Bollinger Bands, MACD golden cross but momentum is weak, RSI about 55, neutral to strong, rebound relies on volume support.
• Daily: In a consolidation repair phase, pressured by short-term moving averages above, with support at 2950-3000 below, the downtrend is difficult to continue due to reduced volume at year-end, likely to consolidate sideways awaiting direction.
3. Market and Macro
• Correlation: Strong correlation with Bitcoin; if BTC stabilizes above 89500, the probability of ETH attacking 3060 increases; if BTC falls below 88000, ETH may drop to 2970.
• Funding: Approximately $672 million in liquidations in the crypto market over the past 24 hours, with a high proportion of long positions, emotional fluctuations need to be guarded against in the evening.
• Liquidity: With the Christmas holiday approaching, market liquidity is weakening, volatility may increase, be wary of "small funds moving large markets."
• Current Price: Approximately $3045, +1.5% for the day, fluctuating in conjunction with Bitcoin, leaning towards a range-bound speculation.
• Core View: Focus on the breakthrough of resistance at 3050-3060 and support at 2970-3000 this evening, with liquidity thin at year-end, volatility may increase, and operations should be short-term oriented.
1. Key Price Levels (USD)
• Resistance: First level 3050-3060 (intraday high + short-term concentrated trading area); Second level 3100 (round number + psychological pressure); Third level 3170 (previous holding area).
• Support: First level 3000 (round number + intraday consolidation center); Second level 2970-2980 (intraday low + buying support); Third level 2940 (yesterday's pullback low).
2. Technical Analysis (4-hour + Daily)
• 4-hour: Price near the middle band of Bollinger Bands, MACD golden cross but momentum is weak, RSI about 55, neutral to strong, rebound relies on volume support.
• Daily: In a consolidation repair phase, pressured by short-term moving averages above, with support at 2950-3000 below, the downtrend is difficult to continue due to reduced volume at year-end, likely to consolidate sideways awaiting direction.
3. Market and Macro
• Correlation: Strong correlation with Bitcoin; if BTC stabilizes above 89500, the probability of ETH attacking 3060 increases; if BTC falls below 88000, ETH may drop to 2970.
• Funding: Approximately $672 million in liquidations in the crypto market over the past 24 hours, with a high proportion of long positions, emotional fluctuations need to be guarded against in the evening.
• Liquidity: With the Christmas holiday approaching, market liquidity is weakening, volatility may increase, be wary of "small funds moving large markets."
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As of December 22, 2025, 14:40 (UTC+8), the Bitcoin price is approximately $84,700, with a slight increase of about 0.4% over the past 24 hours, fluctuating within a narrow range of $84,000-$86,000, continuing the downward trend since October, with market sentiment extremely cautious.
1. Core Market Overview
• Price Range: Daily high and low around $84,450-$85,200; weekly cumulative decline of about 5%, down nearly 33% from the October high ($126,000).
• Sentiment and Liquidity: Fear and Greed Index at 21 (extreme fear); over $1 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours, with BTC accounting for more than half; approaching the Christmas holiday, liquidity is shrinking and volatility is increasing.
• Key Indicators: Daily RSI around 36 (oversold), 4-hour MACD showing signs of stabilization at a low level; options skew remains negative, with strong demand for downside protection.
2. Key Support and Resistance (USD)
• Support: $84,000 (intraday) → $80,000 (strong support) → $77,000 (lower boundary of the range).
• Resistance: $88,000 (psychological + selling pressure zone) → $90,000 (short-term bull-bear watershed) → $95,000 (medium-term strong resistance).
3. Core Drivers and Risks
• Macroeconomic Disturbances: Expectations for Fed rate cuts cooling, a strong dollar suppressing crypto assets; low liquidity during Christmas and weekends can amplify volatility.
• Funding Situation: Selling pressure from long-term holders has not diminished, with spot ETFs turning to net outflows and weak buying support.
4. Short-Term Views and Recommendations
• Viewpoint: Slightly weak fluctuations, waiting for stabilization signals. Oversold + short-term indicators warming up suggest the possibility of a technical rebound, but medium-term downside risks remain, requiring a breakthrough above $90,000 and stable positioning to reverse the downtrend.
•
1. Core Market Overview
• Price Range: Daily high and low around $84,450-$85,200; weekly cumulative decline of about 5%, down nearly 33% from the October high ($126,000).
• Sentiment and Liquidity: Fear and Greed Index at 21 (extreme fear); over $1 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours, with BTC accounting for more than half; approaching the Christmas holiday, liquidity is shrinking and volatility is increasing.
• Key Indicators: Daily RSI around 36 (oversold), 4-hour MACD showing signs of stabilization at a low level; options skew remains negative, with strong demand for downside protection.
2. Key Support and Resistance (USD)
• Support: $84,000 (intraday) → $80,000 (strong support) → $77,000 (lower boundary of the range).
• Resistance: $88,000 (psychological + selling pressure zone) → $90,000 (short-term bull-bear watershed) → $95,000 (medium-term strong resistance).
3. Core Drivers and Risks
• Macroeconomic Disturbances: Expectations for Fed rate cuts cooling, a strong dollar suppressing crypto assets; low liquidity during Christmas and weekends can amplify volatility.
• Funding Situation: Selling pressure from long-term holders has not diminished, with spot ETFs turning to net outflows and weak buying support.
4. Short-Term Views and Recommendations
• Viewpoint: Slightly weak fluctuations, waiting for stabilization signals. Oversold + short-term indicators warming up suggest the possibility of a technical rebound, but medium-term downside risks remain, requiring a breakthrough above $90,000 and stable positioning to reverse the downtrend.
•
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Ethereum Instant Market Update on December 21 (20:30, UTC+8)
• Current Price: Approximately 2975 USD, 24h fluctuation about **-0.2%**, extremely sideways, closely linked with Bitcoin, weekend liquidity is relatively tight.
• Core Viewpoint: Awaiting a breakout from the consolidation, looking at resistance between 3000-3017 and support between 2950-2920 in the evening; breaking these levels will determine the short-term direction.
Key Price Levels (USD)
• Support: 2950 (lower end of intraday fluctuations), 2920 (strong short-term support), 2880 (sentiment and moving average resonance).
• Resistance: 3000 (psychological level), 3017 (technical resistance), 3050 (Bollinger band middle line; breaking this will indicate strength).
Technical and On-Chain
• Daily: RSI neutral to bullish, MACD histogram turned positive, with a “Morning Star” pattern, bulls are building momentum.
• 4h: Triangle convergence nearing the end, MACD golden cross but with insufficient volume; confirming strength requires holding above 3000.
• On-chain: Whale addresses are continuously accumulating, new addresses are increasing, long-term sentiment is relatively warm.
Immediate Trading Strategy (Short-term, not investment advice)
1. Light long positions on a pullback to 2920-2950, stop loss at 2890, target 2990-3017, if broken look for 3050.
2. Light short positions on a rebound to 3000-3017, stop loss at 3040, target 2960-2950, if broken look for 2920.
3. Break above 3050 and hold, chasing long positions on a pullback to 3020, stop loss at 2990, target above 3100.
• Current Price: Approximately 2975 USD, 24h fluctuation about **-0.2%**, extremely sideways, closely linked with Bitcoin, weekend liquidity is relatively tight.
• Core Viewpoint: Awaiting a breakout from the consolidation, looking at resistance between 3000-3017 and support between 2950-2920 in the evening; breaking these levels will determine the short-term direction.
Key Price Levels (USD)
• Support: 2950 (lower end of intraday fluctuations), 2920 (strong short-term support), 2880 (sentiment and moving average resonance).
• Resistance: 3000 (psychological level), 3017 (technical resistance), 3050 (Bollinger band middle line; breaking this will indicate strength).
Technical and On-Chain
• Daily: RSI neutral to bullish, MACD histogram turned positive, with a “Morning Star” pattern, bulls are building momentum.
• 4h: Triangle convergence nearing the end, MACD golden cross but with insufficient volume; confirming strength requires holding above 3000.
• On-chain: Whale addresses are continuously accumulating, new addresses are increasing, long-term sentiment is relatively warm.
Immediate Trading Strategy (Short-term, not investment advice)
1. Light long positions on a pullback to 2920-2950, stop loss at 2890, target 2990-3017, if broken look for 3050.
2. Light short positions on a rebound to 3000-3017, stop loss at 3040, target 2960-2950, if broken look for 2920.
3. Break above 3050 and hold, chasing long positions on a pullback to 3020, stop loss at 2990, target above 3100.
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As of December 21, 2025, 15:15 (UTC+8), the core market data and analysis for Ethereum (ETH) are as follows:
• Current price: approximately $2,975 (≈¥20,950), a slight drop of about 0.06% in the past 24 hours, with a sideways movement.
• Intraday range: support at $2,935, resistance at $2,995, with a short-term tendency towards consolidation.
• Technical analysis: BOLL is narrowing, SAR is close to the current price, short-term direction is uncertain; MA5/MA10 are intertwined, and in the medium term, it needs to hold above $2,980 to have a chance to test $3,050, breaking below $2,935 may lead to a drop to $2,840–$2,770.
• Market sentiment: Fear and Greed Index is around 21 (extreme fear), short-term is bearish but the long-term trend has not turned bearish.
• Fundamentals: Fusaka upgrade has improved performance, Gas Limit is up to 60M, but it is difficult to resist macro and BTC linkage effects in the short term.
Operational suggestions
• Short-term: Watchful or light position trading, a small position can be added if it breaks above $2,995, and timely stop-loss if it drops below $2,935.
• Medium-term: Wait for confirmation of a bottom in the $2,900–$3,000 range before considering adding positions.
• Current price: approximately $2,975 (≈¥20,950), a slight drop of about 0.06% in the past 24 hours, with a sideways movement.
• Intraday range: support at $2,935, resistance at $2,995, with a short-term tendency towards consolidation.
• Technical analysis: BOLL is narrowing, SAR is close to the current price, short-term direction is uncertain; MA5/MA10 are intertwined, and in the medium term, it needs to hold above $2,980 to have a chance to test $3,050, breaking below $2,935 may lead to a drop to $2,840–$2,770.
• Market sentiment: Fear and Greed Index is around 21 (extreme fear), short-term is bearish but the long-term trend has not turned bearish.
• Fundamentals: Fusaka upgrade has improved performance, Gas Limit is up to 60M, but it is difficult to resist macro and BTC linkage effects in the short term.
Operational suggestions
• Short-term: Watchful or light position trading, a small position can be added if it breaks above $2,995, and timely stop-loss if it drops below $2,935.
• Medium-term: Wait for confirmation of a bottom in the $2,900–$3,000 range before considering adding positions.
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On December 18, 2025, the cryptocurrency market overall showed a panic correction trend, influenced by macro factors such as expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Most mainstream cryptocurrencies fell, with only a few niche coins rising. Here is a detailed market analysis:
1. Overall Market: The total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies dropped to $2.99 trillion, with a significant decrease of 2.3% within 24 hours, and total trading volume reached $127.4 billion; the market greed and fear index stands at 18, indicating extreme fear. The Bitcoin spot ETF also saw a net outflow of over $350 million, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors.
2. Mainstream Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) afternoon price is approximately $85995.56, down 1.97% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.71 trillion. There is buying support near $85400; if this support is lost, it may drop to a lower range. Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $2826.47, with somewhat contradictory fluctuations over 24 hours, as different data sources report mixed movements. Its overall market capitalization is $34.1 billion, currently having fallen below $2900, testing the year's low point. Solana (SOL) afternoon price is $123.45, down 4.62% over 24 hours, with short-term fluctuations leaning weak, with strong support at the $121 - $123 range.
3. Niche and Other Cryptocurrencies: In terms of gains, AI Cyclone surged 80.02% in 24 hours, with a price of $0.0002127; Canton (CC) increased by 7.78%, priced at $0.07677. Additionally, nearly 100 billion SHIB were redeemed from exchanges, weakening selling pressure, but the technical outlook remains bearish.
On a macro level, the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, which may trigger large-scale unwinding of yen arbitrage trades. Previous incidents of this nature have led to significant corrections in Bitcoin, becoming the largest suppressing factor in the current market. It is recommended to maintain light positions, avoid intense long-short battles, and approach high-leverage long contracts with caution.
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1. Overall Market: The total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies dropped to $2.99 trillion, with a significant decrease of 2.3% within 24 hours, and total trading volume reached $127.4 billion; the market greed and fear index stands at 18, indicating extreme fear. The Bitcoin spot ETF also saw a net outflow of over $350 million, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors.
2. Mainstream Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) afternoon price is approximately $85995.56, down 1.97% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.71 trillion. There is buying support near $85400; if this support is lost, it may drop to a lower range. Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $2826.47, with somewhat contradictory fluctuations over 24 hours, as different data sources report mixed movements. Its overall market capitalization is $34.1 billion, currently having fallen below $2900, testing the year's low point. Solana (SOL) afternoon price is $123.45, down 4.62% over 24 hours, with short-term fluctuations leaning weak, with strong support at the $121 - $123 range.
3. Niche and Other Cryptocurrencies: In terms of gains, AI Cyclone surged 80.02% in 24 hours, with a price of $0.0002127; Canton (CC) increased by 7.78%, priced at $0.07677. Additionally, nearly 100 billion SHIB were redeemed from exchanges, weakening selling pressure, but the technical outlook remains bearish.
On a macro level, the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, which may trigger large-scale unwinding of yen arbitrage trades. Previous incidents of this nature have led to significant corrections in Bitcoin, becoming the largest suppressing factor in the current market. It is recommended to maintain light positions, avoid intense long-short battles, and approach high-leverage long contracts with caution.
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December 17 evening Bitcoin market analysis
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As of December 17, 18:50, the ETH price is approximately $2955, with narrow fluctuations throughout the day, closely linked to BTC, and a short-term bias towards corrective oscillation. In the evening, it is highly likely to continue the range trading between 2930-2980.
Core Key Levels
• Support: 2930 (key intraday pullback) → 2900 → 2870-2880 (strong support from yesterday's double bottom)
• Resistance: 2977 → 3000 (psychological level) → 3060-3070 (the middle line of the daily Bollinger Bands)
Technical Overview
• Daily: RSI at a low level, MACD bearish expansion, trend is biased towards bearish, no reversal signal observed
• 4-hour/Hourly: RSI volume contraction golden cross, MACD bullish signal, indicating short-term corrective demand
• Volume: Insufficient rebound volume, beware of "false bullish signals", closely monitor BTC movements and the effectiveness of breaking through the 3000 level
Evening Trend and Operational Suggestions
• Baseline Scenario: Fluctuating around 2940-2970, if it stabilizes above 2977, it will test 3000; a pullback to 2930 may stabilize for a short buy, but if it breaks down, look towards 2900/2870
• Risk Scenario: If BTC drops significantly or ETH breaks below 2870, it may accelerate downward to the 2820-2840 range
• Operation: Light positions for high selling and low buying, set stop loss below 2900/2870; if it breaks 3000 with volume, then chase long, otherwise, mainly wait and see, strictly control positions.
Core Key Levels
• Support: 2930 (key intraday pullback) → 2900 → 2870-2880 (strong support from yesterday's double bottom)
• Resistance: 2977 → 3000 (psychological level) → 3060-3070 (the middle line of the daily Bollinger Bands)
Technical Overview
• Daily: RSI at a low level, MACD bearish expansion, trend is biased towards bearish, no reversal signal observed
• 4-hour/Hourly: RSI volume contraction golden cross, MACD bullish signal, indicating short-term corrective demand
• Volume: Insufficient rebound volume, beware of "false bullish signals", closely monitor BTC movements and the effectiveness of breaking through the 3000 level
Evening Trend and Operational Suggestions
• Baseline Scenario: Fluctuating around 2940-2970, if it stabilizes above 2977, it will test 3000; a pullback to 2930 may stabilize for a short buy, but if it breaks down, look towards 2900/2870
• Risk Scenario: If BTC drops significantly or ETH breaks below 2870, it may accelerate downward to the 2820-2840 range
• Operation: Light positions for high selling and low buying, set stop loss below 2900/2870; if it breaks 3000 with volume, then chase long, otherwise, mainly wait and see, strictly control positions.
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As of December 17, 2025, 15:00, Ethereum (ETH) is currently around $2960, with slight upward fluctuations during the day. The highest in 24 hours is $2981, and the lowest is $2876, showing mild volatility and closely linked to Bitcoin.
Core Market and Key Levels
• Price Status: In a correction phase since the high of 3170, the daily MA5/MA10 death cross indicates an overall bearish trend, while a short-term double bottom pattern shows support, with the correction slowing down.
• Support Levels: 2870-2890 (yesterday's double bottom), 2900-2910 (key defense for the day).
• Resistance Levels: 3000 (psychological barrier), 3070 (Bollinger band midline), 3130-3170 (previous highs).
Trend Judgment
• Short-term: Fluctuating around the 2950-2980 range, with the 3000 mark being a key resistance for bulls. A breakout will enhance rebound momentum; otherwise, it may continue to show weak fluctuations.
• Risk Warning: Be cautious of rebound inducements, monitor Bitcoin's movements and evening volatility. If it falls below the 2900 neckline, it may accelerate the downward trend.
Core Market and Key Levels
• Price Status: In a correction phase since the high of 3170, the daily MA5/MA10 death cross indicates an overall bearish trend, while a short-term double bottom pattern shows support, with the correction slowing down.
• Support Levels: 2870-2890 (yesterday's double bottom), 2900-2910 (key defense for the day).
• Resistance Levels: 3000 (psychological barrier), 3070 (Bollinger band midline), 3130-3170 (previous highs).
Trend Judgment
• Short-term: Fluctuating around the 2950-2980 range, with the 3000 mark being a key resistance for bulls. A breakout will enhance rebound momentum; otherwise, it may continue to show weak fluctuations.
• Risk Warning: Be cautious of rebound inducements, monitor Bitcoin's movements and evening volatility. If it falls below the 2900 neckline, it may accelerate the downward trend.
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December 16 Bitcoin (BTC) Evening Market Overview (20:50, UTC+8)
• Core Conclusion: Bears dominate, weak oscillation downward, mainly short on rebound in the short term, with strict risk control.
• Instant Price: Approximately $85800-86000, 24-hour decline of about 4.3%, daily low reached $85073, key level of $86000 lost.
• Market Sentiment: Approximately $1.8 billion liquidated in contracts across the network in 24 hours, over 85% of long positions liquidated, panic sentiment dominates the market.
Key Support and Resistance
• Support Level: $85000 (daily low, strong short-term support), $84000 (previously dense trading area), $82500 (strong medium-term support).
• Resistance Level: $86500 (daily rebound pressure), $87500-88000 (strong resistance at 4-hour level), $90000 (integer level, clear resistance).
Technical Analysis (4-hour/1-hour)
1. Trend: Price breaks below the lower Bollinger band, moving averages are bearish, bulls have no strength to fight back.
2. Indicators: MACD dead cross below zero axis, bearish momentum continues to be released; KDJ enters the oversold area, weak rebound demand but difficult to change the downward trend.
3. Pattern: Weak rebound, clear oscillation downward structure, be cautious of accelerated downside after breaking $85000.
Operational Strategy (Short-term)
• Main Strategy: Short at $86300-86800 on rebound, stop-loss at $87200, target $85000, if broken look for $84200.
• Auxiliary Strategy: If $85000 stabilizes and quickly rebounds, can take a light long position, target $86500, stop-loss at $84700.
• Risk Control: Position not exceeding 20%, strict stop-loss, avoid counter-trend bottom fishing.
Influencing Factors
• Macro: Federal Reserve interest rate cuts implemented but market reaction is muted, risk assets weaken, liquidity tightening suppresses prices.
• Linkage: US stocks weaken, cryptocurrency market trading is light, rebound lacks funding support.
• Funding: Continuous liquidation of long positions, leveraged funds fleeing, further exacerbating selling pressure.
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• Core Conclusion: Bears dominate, weak oscillation downward, mainly short on rebound in the short term, with strict risk control.
• Instant Price: Approximately $85800-86000, 24-hour decline of about 4.3%, daily low reached $85073, key level of $86000 lost.
• Market Sentiment: Approximately $1.8 billion liquidated in contracts across the network in 24 hours, over 85% of long positions liquidated, panic sentiment dominates the market.
Key Support and Resistance
• Support Level: $85000 (daily low, strong short-term support), $84000 (previously dense trading area), $82500 (strong medium-term support).
• Resistance Level: $86500 (daily rebound pressure), $87500-88000 (strong resistance at 4-hour level), $90000 (integer level, clear resistance).
Technical Analysis (4-hour/1-hour)
1. Trend: Price breaks below the lower Bollinger band, moving averages are bearish, bulls have no strength to fight back.
2. Indicators: MACD dead cross below zero axis, bearish momentum continues to be released; KDJ enters the oversold area, weak rebound demand but difficult to change the downward trend.
3. Pattern: Weak rebound, clear oscillation downward structure, be cautious of accelerated downside after breaking $85000.
Operational Strategy (Short-term)
• Main Strategy: Short at $86300-86800 on rebound, stop-loss at $87200, target $85000, if broken look for $84200.
• Auxiliary Strategy: If $85000 stabilizes and quickly rebounds, can take a light long position, target $86500, stop-loss at $84700.
• Risk Control: Position not exceeding 20%, strict stop-loss, avoid counter-trend bottom fishing.
Influencing Factors
• Macro: Federal Reserve interest rate cuts implemented but market reaction is muted, risk assets weaken, liquidity tightening suppresses prices.
• Linkage: US stocks weaken, cryptocurrency market trading is light, rebound lacks funding support.
• Funding: Continuous liquidation of long positions, leveraged funds fleeing, further exacerbating selling pressure.
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December 16 Ethereum (ETH) Evening Market Overview (20:20, UTC+8)
• Key Conclusion: Bears dominate, weak downward trend, short-term focus on shorting during rebounds, strict risk control.
• Current Price: Approximately $2930-2940, 24-hour decline of about 6.15%, intraday low reached $2892, has fallen below the $3000 whole number mark.
• Market Sentiment: Approximately $603 million in liquidations across the network in the last 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for over 83%, panic sentiment is rising.
Key Support and Resistance
• Support Levels: $2900 (near intraday low), $2830 (Bollinger Band lower track), $2960 (intraday key support, already broken).
• Resistance Levels: $3000 (whole number mark), $3050-3080 (short-term rebound pressure), $3130 (previous fluctuation high point).
Technical Analysis (4-hour/1-hour)
1. Trend: Price closely adheres to the Bollinger Band lower track, moving averages in bearish arrangement, insufficient bullish momentum.
2. Indicators: MACD dead cross below the zero axis, bearish momentum still being released; KDJ enters the oversold zone, with slight rebound demand but difficult to change the weak trend.
3. Patterns: Weak rebound, obvious downward oscillation structure, beware of breaking down further.
Trading Strategy (Short-term)
• Main Strategy: Short at the $2950-2980 range during rebounds, stop loss at $3010, target $2850-2830.
• Auxiliary Strategy: If $2900 stabilizes and rebounds quickly, can take a small position to bet on a short-term long, target $2980, stop loss at $2870.
• Risk Control: Position not exceeding 20%, strict stop loss, avoid counter-trend bottom fishing.
• Key Conclusion: Bears dominate, weak downward trend, short-term focus on shorting during rebounds, strict risk control.
• Current Price: Approximately $2930-2940, 24-hour decline of about 6.15%, intraday low reached $2892, has fallen below the $3000 whole number mark.
• Market Sentiment: Approximately $603 million in liquidations across the network in the last 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for over 83%, panic sentiment is rising.
Key Support and Resistance
• Support Levels: $2900 (near intraday low), $2830 (Bollinger Band lower track), $2960 (intraday key support, already broken).
• Resistance Levels: $3000 (whole number mark), $3050-3080 (short-term rebound pressure), $3130 (previous fluctuation high point).
Technical Analysis (4-hour/1-hour)
1. Trend: Price closely adheres to the Bollinger Band lower track, moving averages in bearish arrangement, insufficient bullish momentum.
2. Indicators: MACD dead cross below the zero axis, bearish momentum still being released; KDJ enters the oversold zone, with slight rebound demand but difficult to change the weak trend.
3. Patterns: Weak rebound, obvious downward oscillation structure, beware of breaking down further.
Trading Strategy (Short-term)
• Main Strategy: Short at the $2950-2980 range during rebounds, stop loss at $3010, target $2850-2830.
• Auxiliary Strategy: If $2900 stabilizes and rebounds quickly, can take a small position to bet on a short-term long, target $2980, stop loss at $2870.
• Risk Control: Position not exceeding 20%, strict stop loss, avoid counter-trend bottom fishing.
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On December 16, 2025, Ethereum's market overall showed a weak oscillating trend during the noon period, with clear key support and resistance levels. The technical outlook leans towards bearish, with the specific analysis as follows:
1. Price Performance: Ethereum failed to hold the $3000 round number in the morning session, dropping to a low of 2892, oscillating around 2940 at noon. Previously, it rebounded from around 3023 to 3176 and then entered a mode of oscillating decline, with its resistance to decline continuously weakening due to the pullback of Bitcoin.
2. Key Levels: In terms of support, the focus is on the $2900 - $2850 area below. If this range is broken, it may further test $2650. On the resistance side, in the short term, it looks at $3020 - $3050, with strong resistance concentrated in the $3080 - $3130 and $3170 areas, which are largely pressure levels converted from previous support.
3. Technical Indicators: The daily RSI is 49, indicating early bearish signs below 50; the 4-hour MA10 and MA5 moving averages have formed a death cross, showing a clear bearish trend. However, the RSI indicator has gradually moved out of the oversold area, presenting the possibility of a slight short-term correction.
4. Market Environment: The total liquidations across the network reached $270 million in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated amounting to $230 million. The liquidation of long positions in the derivatives market intensified the selling pressure. At the same time, factors such as the withdrawal of yen arbitrage funds and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies have cooled market risk appetite, also putting pressure on Ethereum's trend. However, the positions held by whales have not shown significant loosening, and the network performance improvement brought by the Fusaka upgrade still provides fundamental support.
1. Price Performance: Ethereum failed to hold the $3000 round number in the morning session, dropping to a low of 2892, oscillating around 2940 at noon. Previously, it rebounded from around 3023 to 3176 and then entered a mode of oscillating decline, with its resistance to decline continuously weakening due to the pullback of Bitcoin.
2. Key Levels: In terms of support, the focus is on the $2900 - $2850 area below. If this range is broken, it may further test $2650. On the resistance side, in the short term, it looks at $3020 - $3050, with strong resistance concentrated in the $3080 - $3130 and $3170 areas, which are largely pressure levels converted from previous support.
3. Technical Indicators: The daily RSI is 49, indicating early bearish signs below 50; the 4-hour MA10 and MA5 moving averages have formed a death cross, showing a clear bearish trend. However, the RSI indicator has gradually moved out of the oversold area, presenting the possibility of a slight short-term correction.
4. Market Environment: The total liquidations across the network reached $270 million in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated amounting to $230 million. The liquidation of long positions in the derivatives market intensified the selling pressure. At the same time, factors such as the withdrawal of yen arbitrage funds and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies have cooled market risk appetite, also putting pressure on Ethereum's trend. However, the positions held by whales have not shown significant loosening, and the network performance improvement brought by the Fusaka upgrade still provides fundamental support.
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December 15th Ethereum Evening Market Core Analysis
• Current Price and Trend: As of 18:00 on the 15th, Ethereum is around $3070, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.99%. The daily low was $3023, holding the $3000 level, showing a weak fluctuation trend, with stronger resistance to decline compared to Bitcoin.
• Key Technical Points: The daily candlestick is firmly above the Bollinger Band around $3076, indicating short-term rebound demand. The upper resistance is at $3317, and the lower support is at $2835. The four-hour line shows slight bearish momentum, with top resistance at $3170 and strong support below $3050. The EMA indicator is contracting, showing fluctuation characteristics.
• Bullish and Bearish Influencing Factors: The bullish side includes low exchange inventory (8.7%) + over 32.4 million ETH staked as a bottom support, with institutions still increasing their holdings; the risk side is concentrated on regulatory uncertainty and a decline in on-chain locked positions, with short-term ETF fund outflows suppressing demand growth.
• Evening Operation Reference: A rebound in the range of $3095-$3145 can be lightly shorted, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of below $3050; a pullback in the range of $2981-$3031 can be bought low, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target above $3080. Need to closely monitor the breaking of the $3000 level and adjust strategies in real-time.
• Current Price and Trend: As of 18:00 on the 15th, Ethereum is around $3070, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.99%. The daily low was $3023, holding the $3000 level, showing a weak fluctuation trend, with stronger resistance to decline compared to Bitcoin.
• Key Technical Points: The daily candlestick is firmly above the Bollinger Band around $3076, indicating short-term rebound demand. The upper resistance is at $3317, and the lower support is at $2835. The four-hour line shows slight bearish momentum, with top resistance at $3170 and strong support below $3050. The EMA indicator is contracting, showing fluctuation characteristics.
• Bullish and Bearish Influencing Factors: The bullish side includes low exchange inventory (8.7%) + over 32.4 million ETH staked as a bottom support, with institutions still increasing their holdings; the risk side is concentrated on regulatory uncertainty and a decline in on-chain locked positions, with short-term ETF fund outflows suppressing demand growth.
• Evening Operation Reference: A rebound in the range of $3095-$3145 can be lightly shorted, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of below $3050; a pullback in the range of $2981-$3031 can be bought low, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target above $3080. Need to closely monitor the breaking of the $3000 level and adjust strategies in real-time.
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On December 15, 2025, at 14:00, Bitcoin fluctuated in the range of $90,000 - $92,000, showing intense bullish and bearish battles, with mixed technical signals and significant influence from macro sentiment. The specific analysis is as follows:
1. Price and market sentiment: Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, Bitcoin once surged to about $94,500, then quickly fell back, currently fluctuating around $91,000. Market sentiment is extremely cautious, as the Federal Reserve hinted that future rate cuts are limited, combined with Standard Chartered Bank lowering its year-end target price for Bitcoin, further weakening market sentiment, and the derivatives market remains reserved about its breaking through $100,000.
2. Technical situation: The upper side faces strong resistance at the $94,000 - $94,200 range, which includes Fibonacci retracement levels and a downward trend line; the primary support below is at the psychological level of $90,000, with stronger support at around $87,500 where moving averages converge. The daily RSI is around 58, indicating a healthy bullish zone, not yet overbought, but the 4-hour chart has formed a "double top" pattern, with multiple moving averages creating resistance, and short-term upward momentum has weakened.
3. Funds and on-chain dynamics: The total open contracts across the network rose to a historical high of $42.3 billion. Exchanges saw a net outflow of over 8,000 BTC for three consecutive days, and the proportion of long-term holders' positions rose to a year-to-date high of 78.6%, indicating that large funds have not exited the market, and are mostly in a wait-and-see or silent accumulation state, waiting for clear signals to adjust their positions.
4. Subsequent influencing factors: U.S. CPI data and other macroeconomic data may still trigger market fluctuations. If the data is favorable, a breakout above $93,000 could aim directly for $95,000 - $96,000; if unfavorable, a drop below $91,000 may quickly test $90,000 or even $88,500. Additionally, changes in global regulatory policies could also impact the market at any time.
1. Price and market sentiment: Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, Bitcoin once surged to about $94,500, then quickly fell back, currently fluctuating around $91,000. Market sentiment is extremely cautious, as the Federal Reserve hinted that future rate cuts are limited, combined with Standard Chartered Bank lowering its year-end target price for Bitcoin, further weakening market sentiment, and the derivatives market remains reserved about its breaking through $100,000.
2. Technical situation: The upper side faces strong resistance at the $94,000 - $94,200 range, which includes Fibonacci retracement levels and a downward trend line; the primary support below is at the psychological level of $90,000, with stronger support at around $87,500 where moving averages converge. The daily RSI is around 58, indicating a healthy bullish zone, not yet overbought, but the 4-hour chart has formed a "double top" pattern, with multiple moving averages creating resistance, and short-term upward momentum has weakened.
3. Funds and on-chain dynamics: The total open contracts across the network rose to a historical high of $42.3 billion. Exchanges saw a net outflow of over 8,000 BTC for three consecutive days, and the proportion of long-term holders' positions rose to a year-to-date high of 78.6%, indicating that large funds have not exited the market, and are mostly in a wait-and-see or silent accumulation state, waiting for clear signals to adjust their positions.
4. Subsequent influencing factors: U.S. CPI data and other macroeconomic data may still trigger market fluctuations. If the data is favorable, a breakout above $93,000 could aim directly for $95,000 - $96,000; if unfavorable, a drop below $91,000 may quickly test $90,000 or even $88,500. Additionally, changes in global regulatory policies could also impact the market at any time.
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