Yung Herb

June 5th 2025

Summary
📊 Bitcoin supply trends: Ben talked about the "supply in profit and loss" chart, which shows the percentage of Bitcoin supply held at a profit or loss. Historically, long-term holders eventually end up in profit if they hold through market cycles.🔻 Market cycle bottoms and metric crossovers: When the percentage of supply in profit and in loss intersect, it often marks major market bottoms—as seen in 2011, 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022.📈 Use of 30-day SMA: Applying a 30-day moving average (SMA) reveals that levels above 90% often precede price pullbacks. This metric can act as an early warning signal for weakening momentum.⬆️ Recent data insights: In March 2024 and December 2024, the SMA peaked around 97–98%. As of now, it's at 96.71%, indicating that while strength remains, a pullback might be near, especially approaching Q3.🕰️ Cyclic patterns and timing: The speaker forecasts strength continuing into early to mid-June, with possible pullbacks around August–September, in line with prior cycles.🔄 Investor psychology & market sentiment: The chart is praised for illustrating cycles of greed and fear, as when supply in profit is high, greed dominates, and when it’s low, fear takes over.
Insights Based on Numbers
🔹 96.71% of Bitcoin supply currently in profit – nearing a historical threshold where price corrections are likely.🔹 Past peaks at 97–100% have correlated with major pullbacks.🔹 30-day SMA serves as a reliable gauge to spot potential market exhaustion or strength continuation.

Understanding Bitcoin's Supply in Profit and Loss
Bitcoin's market dynamics can be complex, but certain metrics offer powerful insights into investor behavior and market cycles. One such key indicator is the "Supply in Profit and Loss" metric, which visually tracks how much of the Bitcoin supply is held at a profit or loss at any given time. In this article, we unpack how this metric works and how it can be used to anticipate major market movements.

The Core Concept: Supply in Profit and Loss
The Supply in Profit and Loss chart reflects the percentage of Bitcoin supply currently sitting at a profit versus a loss. It's calculated by comparing the current price of Bitcoin to the price at which each Bitcoin was last moved (suggesting when it was last bought).
Profit: Bitcoins whose last transaction occurred at a lower price than the current one.Loss: Bitcoins whose last transaction occurred at a higher price than the current one.
This simple comparison forms the basis for understanding the broader market mood—whether it leans toward optimism (profit) or pessimism (loss).
Market Bottoms and Crossovers
Historically, significant market bottoms tend to appear when the supply in profit and loss lines cross. These crossover points indicate mass capitulation and are followed by major rebounds. These critical events occurred in:
201120142018March 2020End of 2022
Such repeated patterns highlight the metric's reliability as a bottom-detection tool.
Predicting Pullbacks with 30-Day SMA
While tops are harder to predict, applying a 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to the supply-in-profit curve helps pinpoint zones of market saturation. When this SMA exceeds 90%—and especially when it nears 97–100%—Bitcoin tends to face resistance, often leading to price pullbacks.
Examples from past cycles:
2013: Double top structure after breaching 99%.2021: Peaks near 97–98% led to subsequent corrections.2024: As of March and December, SMA touched 97% and 98%, currently sitting at 96.71%.
Short-Term Outlook & Long-Term Trends
The speaker expects the market to maintain strength into mid-June 2025, followed by a potential pullback in Q3—possibly around August or September. This view aligns with past cycle behaviors.
If the SMA falls to around 77%, that could mark the next accumulation zone before the market surges again in Q4.
Emotional Cycles and Investor Sentiment
The chart also encapsulates the psychological ebbs and flows of the market:
Greed dominates when nearly everyone is in profit.Fear arises when a large portion holds assets at a loss.
Understanding these emotional undercurrents is critical for timing entry and exit points.
Conclusion
The Bitcoin Supply in Profit and Loss metric, especially when paired with a 30-day SMA, serves as a valuable compass for navigating Bitcoin's cyclical nature. By watching for key thresholds and crossovers, investors can better anticipate both bullish rallies and corrective phases.
Source: Benjamin Cowen on YouTube @intothecryptoverse Summarized and Analyzed @Yung Herb
Link to the Video: https://youtu.be/Is7v_45oxoM?si=DUT7nI_toiAfytRz

#BTC #Market_Update #MyCOSTrade

🧠 TRADING IS 90% MENTAL, 10% LUCK — AND MOSTLY YOU FIGHTING YOU.
You: “I’ll wait for the setup.”

Also you: sees a green candle 👉 “LONG LONG LONG.”
The market isn’t out to get you
You just keep giving it the wrong version of yourself.

Discipline beats signals. Every. Damn. Time.

📉📈
✨ Pro tip: Screenshot your worst trades. Look at them weekly. That’s the version of you you’re trying to outgrow. Not the market.
Jokes asides.
Making money aint fast and easy, especially crypto, it aint 2018 no more. If you want to make money in crypto, you gotta have discipline first, then knowledge to come with it. Read some books, sounds lame but it helps. Pay attention to macro economy and trade only reliable pairs. Meme will give you fast gains but it also take away those gains very fast.
Stay resilient cuh.
#TraderEducation #Discipline #ScalpingTrading

News: Trump’s Tariff Stance and Market Implications
In recent statements, former President Donald Trump acknowledged his personal regard for Chinese President Xi but described him as “extremely hard to make a deal with.” This comment reflects ongoing challenges in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trump has indicated a willingness to impose further tariffs if progress remains slow, emphasizing that China is “dying to make a deal” but not moving quickly enough.

📊 Market Impact Analysis

The escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China have several potential market implications:
Equity Markets: Increased tariffs and strained negotiations can lead to market volatility. Investors may react negatively to the uncertainty, potentially causing stock indices to fluctuate.Commodity Prices: Tariffs on goods like steel and aluminum can affect commodity prices globally, influencing sectors reliant on these materials.investing.comCurrency Markets: Trade tensions often impact currency valuations. For instance, the Chinese yuan may depreciate in response to tariffs, affecting international trade balances.Cryptocurrency Market: While not directly tied to trade policies, heightened economic uncertainty can drive investors toward alternative assets like cryptocurrencies, potentially increasing their volatility.Investors should monitor developments in U.S.-China trade relations, as further escalations could have broad economic repercussions.
Source: Finance Yahoo summarized by @Yung Herb
#MarketSentimentToday #trumptariff #Market_Update

12:59 Wednesday, June 4, 2025 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)

📈 Scalp Long Setup – XRP/USDT

Eyeing a potential bounce after a short-term selloff. XRP testing support zone near VWAP + confluence with EMA 200. MACD beginning to curl, RSI recovering from oversold levels.

🎯 Entry: 2.23 - 2.235

🛡️ Stop: 2.226 - Previous Low - Break through indicate Change of Character.

📌 Target: 2.250 – 2.270
🚀Risk Rewards Ratio: 1:2

Scalp only. Manage risk. Not financial advice.
Follow for more @Yung Herb

🗓️ 4 June 2025 | #XRP #cryptotrading #ScalpTrade

🗓️ News:

Bitcoin (BTC) holds steady above $105K, currently trading at $105,775, with a 24-hour change of +0.4%. Ethereum (ETH) is at $2,638, up 0.88% over the past 24 hours.XRP has risen to $2.26, marking a 2.7% increase today.
🚀 Key Highlights:
Bitcoin Whale Activity: Large holders have accumulated over 79,000 BTC recently, indicating strong institutional interest.XRP Momentum: XRP's price surge is attributed to regulatory clarity and speculation about an upcoming ETF, with some analysts predicting significant growth by 2026. Ethereum Foundation Restructuring: A major reshuffle within the Ethereum Foundation's core team could have implications for the network's future developments. Robinhood's Crypto Expansion: Robinhood's stock reaches a four-year high following its recent acquisition in the crypto sector. Truth Social's ETF Filing: Truth Social has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF, potentially adding to the growing list of crypto investment vehicles.

Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis. @Yung Herb
#MarketSentimentToday #BTCETF #xrp #ETHETFsApproved
$BTC $ETH $XRP

$BTC
June 3rd 2025

📉 Golden Cross ≠ Guaranteed Rally

Ben challenges the bullish narrative often attached to golden crosses. Historically, golden crosses have sometimes preceded pullbacks rather than breakouts. The current situation shows Bitcoin dropping 7–8% after a golden cross, aligning with Ben's expectation of a 10–15% decline.
🔄 Recurring Patterns in Q3 Weakness

Past data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 show that Bitcoin often experiences pullbacks in the third quarter (Q3). Ben expects similar behavior in Q3 2024 unless Bitcoin breaks out decisively before mid-June.🕵️ Death Cross Revisited

Ben explains that death crosses often trigger panic sells, but historically they’ve marked local bottoms. This misinterpretation leads to premature selling, followed by unexpected rallies
🗓️ Mid-June as a Pivot Point
If Bitcoin doesn't decisively break out by mid-June, Ben believes Q3 weakness is likely. This includes a potential rounded top pattern and a revisit of lower support levels.
📊 Bitcoin Dominance Preference

Ben prefers holding Bitcoin over altcoins during uncertain periods. Bitcoin tends to lead recoveries, and altcoins often lag or suffer more severe corrections.⏳ Still Room to Prove Bulls Right

Bitcoin’s current higher highs and lower lows pattern could mimic 2023. If support holds, and it doesn't go below the 2024 high, it might still lead to a breakout rather than a breakdown.💥 Critical Support Levels Matter

If Bitcoin dips into the 60k range and breaks key support, it could signify the end of the current market cycle. However, even such dips often prompt significant bounces before broader declines.
🚨 Advice Against Panic Selling

Given the altcoin market’s history of sharp rebounds after breakdowns, panic selling during pullbacks is discouraged. Market volatility often results in rebounds that benefit those who hold through fear.🔮 Cautious Optimism

Ben remains cautiously optimistic, noting Bitcoin’s failure to fully replicate prior bull extensions. Timing differences—previous breakouts occurred in Q4, while now it’s late Q2—may delay or mute expected patterns.
📉 Lack of Extension From Support Band

Despite a Q2 rally, Bitcoin hasn't stretched far above the 20-week SMA, unlike previous bull cycles. This raises questions about momentum strength and the likelihood of another surge without a Q3 reset.

Insights Based on Numbers
7–8% Pullback Post-Golden Cross: Highlights how technical indicators like golden crosses can be misleading and often lagging.10–15% Decline Anticipated: Provides a realistic and historically grounded prediction window for retracement.Support Band Range (93.7–93.8): Serves as a vital reference level; if Bitcoin dips here, it could reset bullish momentum or confirm a downtrend.Mid-June Inflection: Indicates a critical temporal threshold where market direction may become clearer.
Source: @Benjamin Cowen on Youtube
Link to video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4ptTIHciXI
Follow for more market sentiments and news related.
#BTC #PCEMarketWatch #GoldenCross