June 3rd 2025
📉 Golden Cross ≠ Guaranteed Rally
Ben challenges the bullish narrative often attached to golden crosses. Historically, golden crosses have sometimes preceded pullbacks rather than breakouts. The current situation shows Bitcoin dropping 7–8% after a golden cross, aligning with Ben's expectation of a 10–15% decline.
🔄 Recurring Patterns in Q3 Weakness
Past data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 show that Bitcoin often experiences pullbacks in the third quarter (Q3). Ben expects similar behavior in Q3 2024 unless Bitcoin breaks out decisively before mid-June.🕵️ Death Cross Revisited
Ben explains that death crosses often trigger panic sells, but historically they’ve marked local bottoms. This misinterpretation leads to premature selling, followed by unexpected rallies🗓️ Mid-June as a Pivot Point
If Bitcoin doesn't decisively break out by mid-June, Ben believes Q3 weakness is likely. This includes a potential rounded top pattern and a revisit of lower support levels.📊 Bitcoin Dominance Preference
Ben prefers holding Bitcoin over altcoins during uncertain periods. Bitcoin tends to lead recoveries, and altcoins often lag or suffer more severe corrections.⏳ Still Room to Prove Bulls Right
Bitcoin’s current higher highs and lower lows pattern could mimic 2023. If support holds, and it doesn't go below the 2024 high, it might still lead to a breakout rather than a breakdown.💥 Critical Support Levels Matter
If Bitcoin dips into the 60k range and breaks key support, it could signify the end of the current market cycle. However, even such dips often prompt significant bounces before broader declines.🚨 Advice Against Panic Selling
Given the altcoin market’s history of sharp rebounds after breakdowns, panic selling during pullbacks is discouraged. Market volatility often results in rebounds that benefit those who hold through fear.🔮 Cautious Optimism
Ben remains cautiously optimistic, noting Bitcoin’s failure to fully replicate prior bull extensions. Timing differences—previous breakouts occurred in Q4, while now it’s late Q2—may delay or mute expected patterns.📉 Lack of Extension From Support Band
Despite a Q2 rally, Bitcoin hasn't stretched far above the 20-week SMA, unlike previous bull cycles. This raises questions about momentum strength and the likelihood of another surge without a Q3 reset.
Insights Based on Numbers
7–8% Pullback Post-Golden Cross: Highlights how technical indicators like golden crosses can be misleading and often lagging.
10–15% Decline Anticipated: Provides a realistic and historically grounded prediction window for retracement.
Support Band Range (93.7–93.8): Serves as a vital reference level; if Bitcoin dips here, it could reset bullish momentum or confirm a downtrend.
Mid-June Inflection: Indicates a critical temporal threshold where market direction may become clearer.
Source: @Benjamin Cowen on Youtube
Link to video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4ptTIHciXI
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