宇辰web3

BTC：
Entered a short position at the current price of 107500
Set the stop loss at 108500
The volume in this 4-hour period is insufficient
Is it difficult to break out and form a bull flag? #加密市场回调

It's really hard to predict how Trump's interest group will manipulate the capital market trends next
Although BTC has risen from 100,000 to 108,000, altcoins are still very weak
ETH is also weak, and this round of the market's altcoins basically do not rise or fall in sync with BTC
Except for a few such as AAVE and other genuinely valuable coins that remain strong
During uncertain market conditions, a better strategy is to short new coins
Also, short some coins that will soon have large unlocks
You can even hedge, for example by going long on AAVE and BCH (AAVE, the lending leader, is somewhat linked to USD1, and BCH data shows that the whales have been increasing their holdings)
Short some unlock coins that are clearly weak and below the EMA moving averages
For example: ZRO, ACX
#美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #期权

BTC
Macro:
1. The U.S. Core PCE Price Index for May was released at an annual rate of 2.7%, slightly higher than expected.
2. BTC options with a nominal value of $15 billion will expire today, with a maximum pain point of $102,000 and ETH's maximum pain point at $2,200.
3. Grayscale updates its Q3 Top 20 assets list: adding AVAX and MORPHO while removing LDO and OP.
Technical:
1. On the weekly level, this week's candlestick closed as a bullish candle, showing a slow oscillating upward trend, but there is still a double top expectation in the overall structure, and this expectation has not been broken.
2. On the daily level, yesterday's candlestick closed as a bearish candle at resistance, ending a three-day bullish trend since the bottom, with continuous decreasing volume. The current structure has reached near the upper resistance line of the flag-shaped consolidation. If this resistance is not broken, the market will retrace towards the lower line of the flag. If a breakout occurs, it can target the flag's highest point around 111,800.
3. In terms of KDJ, the price has entered the overbought zone again, and in the previous two instances when the price was in this overbought zone, it was at relatively high peaks. If the upper resistance line is not broken, a pullback should be noted.
4. On the 4-hour level: in terms of MACD, a death cross has just formed with bullish momentum turning bearish.
5. In terms of TD sequence, a bearish TD9 has formed at a high position.
6. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the intraday naked K-level support is at 106,480, resonating with the middle Bollinger Band support. The intraday oscillation range is 108,200-106,480
#美国5月核心PCE物价指数

Let me talk about the next steps. What if the market breaks through without a pullback and goes straight up? Will I miss the opportunity? I’ll tell you, no.
Because afterwards, we can invest in altcoins for a catch-up. In a bull market, it's often BTC that rises sharply first, followed by Ethereum, and then altcoins.
So relax, if there’s a fake breakout and it falls back, we will short. If it doesn’t fall back, then it’s a real breakout. I won’t chase Bitcoin; I will focus on small coins, which can still yield profits and are safer. #
#币安Alpha上新 #以色列伊朗冲突

The release progress of WLFi has affected the status of Trump Coin
Trump continues to decline
Those holding Trump should pay attention to this WLFI official account.

In the cryptocurrency world for many years, I've summarized 5 short-term trading insights! Understand and easily grasp the market rhythm!

1. Consolidation Market: Be patient and wait for signals, don’t act recklessly

When the price fluctuates at high or low levels, don’t rush to make a move! Consolidation at high levels often hides opportunities for breakthroughs, while lingering at low levels may brew a new round of declines. Like a hunter lying in wait, wait for the market to clarify its direction before decisively striking.

2. Sideways Phase: Control your hands, cash is king

The sideways period can be considered a “disaster zone” for retail investors! 90% of ineffective trades occur during this time. Remember, not trading is the best action; patiently wait for the market to break the deadlock before elegantly entering the market.

3. Rebound Prediction: See through the strength of the decline, accurately grasp the rebound

A decline is like a ball hitting the ground—the harder it hits, the stronger the rebound! By observing the speed and strength of the decline, predict the strength of the rebound, and accurately grasp the starting point of the rise like a surfing expert.

4. Position Building Strategy: Pyramid-style phased entry, control risk steadily

Trading experts all understand “phased sowing”! Using the pyramid building method, start with a small amount to test, then gradually increase, which can lower costs and diversify risks, laying a solid foundation for trading.

5. Trend Finale: Wait for reversal signals, don’t be an unwitting bag holder

After significant rises and falls, don’t rush to act! Don’t chase highs at elevated levels, and don’t bottom-fish at low levels; patiently wait for clear trend reversal signals to grasp the best exit timing.

Remember: Patience > Skill, Stability > Aggressiveness! #币安Alpha上新

Trump speaks with Powell
Let's see if there will be significant news impact
The US stock market is now at an all-time high
Be cautious of negative comments
#加密市场反弹 #以色列伊朗冲突

After making a profit, slap yourself twice to wake up
Don't get carried away, don't be greedy, don't fantasize
Understand that this is not just good luck
It's a probability game using a 5% drawdown rate to strive for a 15% return
The secret to not hesitating when entering a trade
Is having calculated the stop loss more clearly than the cost of groceries
High-frequency trading dies quickly
Full margin betting buries you early
Those who can truly make a living from this
Are the ones who can grind out a 3:1 risk-reward ratio with a 10% position
The core secret from 50,000 to 5 million in your account
Is not the amount of capital
But being able to copy and paste the opening and closing actions perfectly
In two thousand trades over three years
This is a hard rule
And also a survival code #加密市场反弹

The reason for the continuous rise in the past two days is firstly the reconciliation between Israel and Palestine, which means the U.S. doesn't need to intervene directly.
Secondly, institutions have started to speculate that interest rate cuts are coming. In the past two days, Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly mentioned the possibility of early rate cuts, so the market is surging wildly.
The Nasdaq has already risen to 19,900, close to the historical high of 20,000.
This situation is really very delicate; if we go further, the skies are wide and the stars are vast. However, if we take a step back, it could lead to a perfect double top and a significant correction.
Currently, in the short term, the rebound is nearing its end. This is a key position, and it is highly likely that a correction will occur here.

BTC has no strength in the rebound
Short entered around 10100, original stop loss
Watch for a drop to 97500, second position 93000
If it rebounds to 101200 in the evening, continue shorting
This is a medium to long-term position, hold on tight
Estimated to break 9.8#比特币跌破十万美元 #加密市场回调 #以色列伊朗冲突 at the latest by Monday's US stock market open

Are the bulls still bullish? Last month it was already indicated that a bull market is unlikely.
My recent views have consistently been bearish, and expect a significant drop.
A drop in June and July, bottoming in August, and rising in September.
If this expectation holds, a small bear market in July means that July and August will be the time to buy at low prices.
At that time, the mainstream coin to bottom out should be SOL.
Because it is very likely to launch a spot ETF in October.
Just waiting for an entry opportunity, so be ready with your ammunition.
Including some quality altcoins, waiting until the market drops to extreme panic levels.
We will boldly invest heavily.
#加密市场回调

I have been saying that I am bearish on June and July, isn't that correct?
After being stagnant at a high position for so long, it looks like a selling behavior.
The imitation has already taken the lead in turning bearish.
This morning, Trump struck at the wallets of the bulls.
Next, let's see if Iran will retaliate.
Once Iran decides to take revenge on the Americans,
then the market is likely to take this bad news as an opportunity to break below 100,000.
#加密市场回调

Yesterday BTC faked a breakout, ETH has had a relatively standard touch on resistance followed by a pullback.
Actually, I regret not going short when Ethereum broke below 2540 in the short term last night.
That level breaking proved the breakout was a failure, and I didn’t make a good plan for this.
If it rises to 2480-2500 tonight, it’s a good time to go short.
Around 2485 is near the level where support and resistance switch, as well as near the downward trend line pressure.
If it can get there, it’s a pretty good short entry point, with a stop loss above 2530.
#加密市场回调

A wave of false breakthroughs at the door, truly tough
Recently, it's really more painful to go long than to go short
From the daily perspective, including the time cycle
This large range should be close to breaking
I always feel that a big crash is not far off
#美联储FOMC会议

ZRO, today unlocks 20% of the circulation
Three days ago entered a short at 1.98, previously called the rebound at 1.93 to continue shorting
In between, there were two rebounds that exactly hit 1.93
Today exited completely, looks like it’s not dropping much anymore, once the time is right I won’t care
Achieved about 12% decline profit
#以色列伊朗冲突

ETH has broken through the range fluctuation of the past two days

Here, as long as it doesn't break 2540 in the short term, the focus should be on going long

You can buy at 2550, with a stop loss at 2530, looking to rise at least to above 2600
#以色列伊朗冲突

Earning five thousand a month, no matter how you save, you only have five thousand.
Earning twenty thousand a month, if you spend ten thousand, you still have ten thousand;
Earning one hundred thousand a month, if you spend ten thousand, you still have ninety thousand.
Therefore, you must focus on how to earn money,
Instead of reducing your expenses, try to increase your income.
Choose a profession to sustain your life, wait for fortune to turn the tide.
Wealth lies in skills, not in labor, benefits lie in opportunity, not in hard work.

In the era of knowledge economy, the higher your level of understanding,
The stronger your ability to acquire wealth.
Those who earn money based on their level of understanding
Can earn ten times, or even a hundred times more than others.

Let's work hard together, family in the crypto world
#我的交易风格

Let's talk about the possible market scenario ahead:

July big drop - August bottoming - September market starts!

After yesterday's monetary policy meeting, my view has become more firm. I am bearish in July
(unless BTC breaks and stabilizes above 115000, but the probability is very low)
The probability of a rate cut on July 30 has decreased to 6%

In the next one and a half months, it is very likely to decline due to some negative news. After a sharp drop, there will be a consolidation in August. Don't expect a quick rebound; capital accumulation takes time and requires a certain period of consolidation.

Starting from mid-August, speculation about interest rate cuts will begin, and the entire market, including altcoins, will slowly raise the bottom. This will be the best time to enter the market for bottom fishing, with low-leverage long positions or spot purchases, rolling over positions into a bull market.

If this scenario plays out, then if there are extremely low points in July and August, you must unhesitatingly buy the dip at #鲍威尔发言 .

Summary of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting last night:
1. 【Two rate cuts this year】
Maintaining the expectation of two rate cuts this year, but lowering the forecast for rate cuts next year from two times to one.
2. 【Lowering U.S. GDP forecast for this year】
In the latest release of the Economic Projections Summary (SEP), the Federal Reserve expects U.S. GDP to grow by 1.4% in 2025, down from an expected 1.7% in March.
3. 【Raising unemployment rate forecast】
The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025, up from an expected 4.4% in March.
4. 【Raising inflation forecast for the U.S. from 2025 to 2027】
The core PCE inflation rate is expected to be 3.1% in 2025, up from an expected 2.8% in March.
Currently, market bets show: the probability of a rate cut on July 30 has dropped from 18% to 6%
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17 is as high as 44%.
Now, with the economic slowdown, rising unemployment rate, and increasing inflation,
the earliest rate cut will have to wait until September, so it's better to watch more and act less in the next two months.
Doing some short-term trades on mainstream coins is also quite comfortable.

Tonight is interesting, it's already 2 AM for the interest rate meeting.
Iran might do something big in the middle of the night (claimed to be historic).
So, we have to stay up late again, brothers.
The possibility of positive news tonight is small, while the possibility of negative news is large.
If something major happens on the battlefield in the middle of the night, then it’s likely to crash.
The current market is already very weak, and risk-averse sentiment is severe.
At this time, remember not to go long; just watch the show, or look for opportunities to short.
I shorted ethfi at 0.98, with a stop loss set at 1.03.
The daily key position has broken, let’s see if there are any surprises tonight.