xiao01110

#特朗普就职百日
Strong employment data usually indicates a higher risk of an overheating economy, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period or even consider further rate hikes to curb inflation. In contrast, weak employment data may signal an economic slowdown, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates earlier or more significantly to stimulate the economy. Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy directly influence investors' risk appetite. When high rates are expected to remain or rise, funds tend to flow into safer assets like bonds, reducing investment in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. Conversely, when rate cuts are anticipated, the appeal of risk assets increases, and funds may flow back in. NFP data is a barometer of macroeconomic health. When the economy is strong, consumer spending and corporate profits may rise, theoretically benefiting various market activities, including the crypto ecosystem. Economic weakness may bring uncertainty and risk-averse sentiment.

If the data is strong, the market may interpret it as the U.S. economy remaining robust, and the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to cut rates. This could lead to a stronger dollar, while cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, may face downward pressure, with market sentiment potentially leaning bearish. Conversely, the market may interpret it as a slowdown in the U.S. economy, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This could lead to a weaker dollar, with risk assets being buoyed, and cryptocurrency prices potentially rising, with market sentiment leaning bullish. If the data meets expectations, market reactions may be relatively mild, and the focus may shift to other details in the report, such as average hourly wage growth, or waiting for other economic data or comments from Federal Reserve officials.

#TRUMP晚宴
Meme like TRUMP, which is strongly associated with specific individuals or events, often shows price fluctuations that are extremely dependent on emotions, news cycles, and community hype rather than traditional project fundamentals or technological applications. Therefore, daily fluctuations of up to 50% or even higher are not uncommon, which is a direct reflection of the high-risk, high-reward characteristics of such assets. This rapid increase in magnitude is likely not driven by significant advancements in the project itself, but rather influenced by the latest news related to Trump, the discussion heat on social media, the push from specific communities, or broader market sentiment. Political events and public figures' statements can be quickly and directly reflected in the price of such tokens. Although there may be significant increases in the short term, this does not mean the trend will continue. High volatility means that prices can reverse at any moment, and a rapid rise may be accompanied by an equally rapid or even faster decline. The risk of chasing such hot tokens is very high, as prices are largely driven by speculative behavior, and once emotions or narratives cool down, prices can collapse quickly. The activity of TRUMP also demonstrates the increasingly segmented state of the crypto market, where different types of assets attract investors with varying preferences and risk tolerances. Political meme coins are a special category within this diverse market.

The 60% increase of TRUMP in a day is a typical manifestation of its high volatility and characteristics driven by emotions and narratives. This shows the current interest and speculative heat in the market for this token, but also emphasizes the tremendous risks associated with investing in such assets.

#加密市场反弹
Bitcoin surged to the 94496 line in the afternoon and then pulled back for a correction, reaching a low of 93246. After several consecutive trading days of increases, a slight pullback in the price is to be expected. With the continuous upward movement in various structures, we can view all corrections as adjustments lingering around 93500, without further breakdown, which is a strong proof of the bulls. Therefore, once the subsequent correction ends, we still remain optimistic about a subsequent breakout. In the current structure, every pullback provides us with an opportunity to enter long positions, and after the adjustment is completed, it will return to a strong upward rhythm.

+ With so many conditions, I think you can also add these few

Average holding of 5 BNB for 30 days + spot trading volume + contract trading volume. Consider both hodlers and platform traders. Otherwise, isn't it unfair that hodlers and platform traders have nothing?

#Metaplanet增持比特币
Metaplanet Third Round of Increased Investment in BTC, Is Bitcoin Once Again the 'Safe Haven' for Institutions? As BTC breaks through $87,300 and rebounds to reverse its downward trend, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet has announced the purchase of an additional 330 BTC, worth over $28 million. This marks its third round of increased investment this month, making it the world's tenth largest publicly held institution of Bitcoin. After this purchase, Metaplanet holds a total of 4,855 BTC, valued at approximately $420 million; the company's stock price immediately rose by 0.9% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange; in contrast to the violent fluctuations in the stock market, Bitcoin has demonstrated stronger resilience, for example: the U.S. stock market fell by $5.4 trillion due to tax-related issues concerning former President Trump, while BTC only dropped by 6%.

#Strategy增持比特币
BTC has risen above the long-term moving average and successfully broken through the key resistance zone of 90k, strongly confirming the bullish structure. The current pullback is not deep, indicating good market support. The short-term moving average has crossed above the long-term moving average, forming a golden cross, which is a medium to short-term bullish signal. If the short-term trend remains steeply upward, it has momentum for continuation. The MACD green bars are continuously increasing, indicating strong upward momentum in the market, suggesting that the rise is not over and the bulls are still in control. However, the RSI has reached 81, entering the overbought zone, and the short-term rise has been too fast, presenting a certain risk of a technical pullback. Recently, the increase has been accompanied by a rise in trading volume, indicating that the market is not just a false rally, but a real participation of funds.

The short-term trend may experience some pullback since the RSI has entered the overbought zone. It could pull back to near the white line or the 90K support. However, as long as it can hold above 90,000 and continue to maintain high volume and strong momentum, the bullish trend will continue. Pay attention to whether the pullback to 90K is an effective support; if it quickly breaks below, caution is needed as it may be a false breakout.

$BTC
Recent prices have rebounded, attempting to break through EMA60, with various indicators showing that the market's upward momentum is strengthening.
In the short term, the market may still belong to an upward trend. The current green three soldiers formation, MACD buy signal, and increased trading volume all point to the possibility of further upward movement.
Due to the current RSI being in the overbought range, short-term risks in the market have increased. It is recommended to closely monitor price trends as well as breakout or pullback signals. When the price approaches the 90000 resistance level, partial profit-taking can be considered to avoid potential pullback risks. At the same time, once the price successfully breaks through and confirms stable operation above 90000, consider increasing positions to welcome potential continued rises. Maintain a flexible and cautious trading strategy to adapt to the rapidly changing market environment.

Candlestick Pattern: The green three soldiers have appeared, and there may be continued upward movement in the short term; the dark cloud cover formation has previously hinted at short-term pullback pressure.
MACD: The MACD indicator has turned positive, indicating bullish signals in the market; the line crosses the signal line, and the trend indicates strong upward movement.
EMA: The short-term EMA has broken through the long-term EMA, indicating a possible price upward trend; the price is above the average line, showing upward momentum.
RSI: RSI shows 76.06, in the overbought range, with market sentiment being relatively optimistic, but caution is needed for pullback risks.
Volume: Increased trading volume supports enhanced market activity, with trading activities strengthening in the short term, and capital inflow supporting the upward trend.

#加密市场反弹
The staking market value of SOL has surpassed that of ETH, reflecting the community's high level of trust and participation in its network. Such a high staking market value indicates the cohesion of the SOL community and its active engagement in the PoS consensus mechanism. SOL is known for its high performance, low transaction costs, and fast transaction speeds, which attract a large number of developers and users, and may also indirectly encourage staking willingness. A high staking rate typically means greater network security, which helps attract more users and developers. This milestone event may further enhance the confidence and enthusiasm of the SOL community, driving further development of the ecosystem. SOL has significant advantages in performance and transaction costs, attracting a large number of emerging projects and users. Its ecosystem is rapidly developing, particularly excelling in the NFT and certain DeFi sectors. I am optimistic about SOL's growth potential and its competitiveness in specific application scenarios.

$TRX
Canary Capital applies to launch a Staked TRX ETF
According to StakingRewards data, the ETF plans to hold and stake the native token TRX of the Tron blockchain, with an annualized yield of approximately 4.5%.

Regulatory documents show that the American asset management company Canary Capital has submitted an application to list an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that will hold the native token TRX of the Tron blockchain network.

According to the application documents, the fund plans to hold spot TRX and stake part of the tokens for additional income.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the total market capitalization of TRX tokens exceeds $22 billion. Data platform Stakingrewards shows that the annualized yield for staking TRX is approximately 4.5%.

This application is the latest example in the recent wave of applications for listing altcoin ETFs.

The fund proposed by Canary is relatively unique because it requested permission to stake its cryptocurrency holdings in the initial application. Other American ETFs, such as those holding the native token ETH of the Ethereum network, sought staking approval only after successfully listing spot token funds. These staking applications are still awaiting regulatory decisions.

Tron is a proof-of-stake blockchain network founded by Justin Sun. Sun also owns Rainberry (formerly known as Bittorrent), which is the developer of the BitTorrent protocol.

In March 2023, the SEC sued Sun for allegedly manipulating the prices of Tron tokens and BitTorrent's BTT tokens fraudulently.

In February of this year, the SEC and Sun requested that the judge overseeing the lawsuit pause the case to allow both parties to engage in settlement negotiations.

#波场ETF
I believe that the increasing attention on altcoin ETFs is a natural evolution in the maturity and institutionalization of the cryptocurrency market. The ETF format can significantly lower the barriers for ordinary investors to participate in altcoin investments, eliminating the need to directly open accounts and operate on cryptocurrency exchanges, thus reducing technical complexity and security risks. There are many factors to consider when investing, such as the distribution mechanism of staking rewards, the fundamentals and risks associated with TRX itself, and the management fees of the ETF. How the ETF distributes staking rewards to investors is a key issue. Will there be regular dividends? How does the fee structure affect the final returns? All of these need to be carefully evaluated. The fundamental consideration for investing in a TRX ETF remains the value judgment of the TRON network and its token TRX. Factors such as its technological strength, ecological development, community activity, competitive landscape, and potential regulatory risks need to be considered. The ETF management will charge certain management fees, which will directly affect the final returns for investors. The fee structure of ETFs with staking capabilities may be more complex.

#ListLending Innovation BNBChain Lending
Charge!!!

#分散资产 My cryptocurrency asset portfolio currently mainly includes Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB. I chose BTC for its potential as a long-term store of value as digital gold and its leadership position in the crypto market; ETH for its technological innovations in smart contract platforms and its extensive application ecosystem; I am attracted to SOL for its high performance and the growing ecosystem of DeFi and NFT projects. As for BNB, it is the essential token for participating in airdrop activities on Binance.

The way I balance these assets is based on my risk-return assessment of different assets and my judgment of market cycles. Generally, BTC and ETH occupy a larger proportion of my portfolio as core holdings for stability; the allocation of SOL will be adjusted according to its ecological development and market sentiment, pursuing higher growth potential but also accompanied by higher volatility.

The impact of my diversification strategy on my overall trading performance is significant. The most direct feeling is that it reduces the impact of a significant decline in a single asset on the portfolio, alleviating psychological pressure. Although in a bull market, diversification may sacrifice some opportunities to chase the highest returns, during market corrections, the non-correlation between different assets often provides a buffer, reducing overall losses. In the long run, I believe that a robust diversification strategy is more conducive to achieving sustained and predictable growth, avoiding the huge uncertainty of betting on a single asset.

$BTC
80K is an important psychological integer threshold. If BTC falls back to this level from a higher position, this level becomes a crucial support-resistance conversion point. 80k could serve as a strong psychological and technical support level, attracting buying interest and preventing further declines. Bulls may defend this level, viewing it as a healthy pullback or consolidation after prior gains. Weekend trading volumes are typically lower, and if buying pressure emerges, even small funds could trigger significant price rebounds.

If the 80k support level is effectively broken, it may trigger stop-loss orders and accelerate declines. If there was a significant prior increase, the pullback to 80k may just be the beginning of profit-taking. If key support is broken, it may trigger panic in the market. Similarly, under low liquidity, if selling pressure persists, prices may be more easily pushed down, and there could even be a 'spike' event testing lower support levels.

The key lies in the effectiveness of the 80,000 dollar support level. If it holds, there may be fluctuations or slight rebounds around this price over the weekend. If broken, the market may further probe for the next support area.

$BTC
CPI below expectations has a significant impact on market sentiment and liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, primarily by influencing market expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A CPI below expectations is generally favorable for the cryptocurrency market as it increases expectations for interest rate cuts. A CPI that is lower than expected is usually interpreted by the market as a sign that inflationary pressures are easing. This increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates or slowing the pace of rate hikes, which could be a bullish signal. Expectations for rate cuts typically imply that future market liquidity will be more abundant, and the dollar may weaken. This diminishes the attractiveness of holding cash or fixed-income assets, prompting funds to flow towards higher-risk asset classes, with cryptocurrencies as typical high-risk assets likely to benefit from this. Signals of cooling inflation help alleviate concerns about economic recession and boost overall market risk appetite, which is positive for the cryptocurrency market.

In this context, while controlling for risk, it may be worth considering increasing allocations to mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin at recent lows. CPI is just one data point; it is still necessary to pay attention to subsequent remarks from Federal Reserve officials and future economic data to confirm the solidity of rate cut expectations. Good risk management is essential; even with positive news, the volatility in the cryptocurrency market remains high. Setting stop-loss orders, diversifying investments, and avoiding excessive leverage are still necessary. 💪

#加密市场反弹
From a technical perspective, some mainstream cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have shown a degree of price recovery after a significant decline, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, which is often a sign of a rebound. Short-term moving averages have started to turn upwards, and some technical indicators have also entered a recovery phase after reaching oversold levels. Although they have broken through previous highs, they have not surpassed key resistance levels and established a firm footing, so the confirmation is only a rebound. The decision by the Trump administration to suspend the increase in tariffs for 90 days undoubtedly brought some positive effects to the global market. In the short term, this alleviated market concerns about further escalation of the trade war, boosting the preference for risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market benefited as a result. However, it is important to recognize that this is merely a 'pause' and not a permanent cancellation. After 90 days, if trade negotiations do not achieve substantial progress, tariff barriers may resurface, once again impacting the global economy and financial markets. For the cryptocurrency market, its correlation with traditional financial markets is increasingly strengthening. The uncertainty of the global economy, as well as trade frictions between major economies, will ultimately be transmitted to the cryptocurrency market by influencing investor sentiment and risk appetite. Therefore, the direction of tariff policy remains an important factor to closely monitor in the near future.

In the current complex and uncertain market environment, more cautious and flexible trading strategies need to be adopted. Reduce leverage, control positions, pay attention to key support and resistance levels, and utilize multiple time frame analyses, combining 4-hour and daily charts for a more comprehensive grasp of market trends. The short-term rise may only be a rebound within a daily-level downward trend. Closely monitor global macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and changes in regulatory policies. These factors may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Based on the actual market trends, flexibly adjust take-profit and stop-loss points. Gradually lock in profits when in profit, and decisively cut losses when in loss to avoid further losses. Pay attention to changes in market sentiment indicators such as the fear and greed index to assist in determining whether the market is overly optimistic or pessimistic.

#加密市场回调
Altcoins are experiencing a widespread decline, and prioritizing risk control in the short term is crucial. Reducing exposure to altcoins and maintaining liquidity should be the top priority. Holding stablecoins or Bitcoin can effectively mitigate the risks associated with short-term volatility during times of high market uncertainty. Setting stop-loss and take-profit points is also a fundamental operation for mature traders. Avoiding counter-trend trading and high-leverage trading is an effective way to control risk. During market downturns, avoid bottom fishing or going long on altcoins, especially those without fundamental support. Contract trading carries excessive risk.

In the medium term, focus on quality sectors and fundamentals. Paying attention to promising sectors like AI and RWA and conducting in-depth research on project fundamentals is a core principle of value investing, helping to filter out truly promising projects during a bear market. Gradual accumulation and diversified investment can effectively reduce the risks posed by a single project. Prefer projects with clear planning, technological leadership like Solana, well-developed ecosystems like Arbitrum, and active communities and institutional support like DOGE and Cardano.

In the long term, continue to focus on macro perspectives and policy dividends. Keeping an eye on macroeconomic cycles and policy changes such as tariff policies, liquidity releases, and the differentiation of ETF effects can help investors grasp long-term investment opportunities. Accumulating chips during downturns is an important strategy for long-term investors. Pay attention to tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as these may bring new opportunities to the crypto market in early 2026. Whether there will be ETFs targeting specific altcoin sectors in the future, thereby attracting more funds.

I estimate that swapping stablecoins for stablecoins won't work. I need to swap for BNB in the last few hours. I also got it.

#美国加征关税
1. Tariffs ignite "stagflation expectations", and the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma. If Trump's tariff policy is fully implemented, the effective tariff rate in the United States will soar from 2.4% to 25.1%, directly surpassing the levels seen during the Great Depression of 1930. China International Capital Corporation warns that this may lead to "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, while the Federal Reserve oscillates between cutting and raising interest rates, resembling "dancing square on a tightrope".

2. Technical Analysis “Door Opening Market”: Fate of CME Gap Filling. In March, Bitcoin surged to $95,000 due to the “Trump Crypto Reserve Plan”, but on-chain data revealed the truth: this frenzy was entirely supported by futures leverage, and major whales had already sold off on the good news. Subsequently, the CME futures gap was filled, and the price plummeted to $77,000, perfectly illustrating the cryptocurrency market law that “the sharper the rise, the sharper the fall.”

3. Retail Investor Faith Collapses: The “Mutual Washing Game” between the Primary Market and Whales. Seasoned investors in the cryptocurrency space understand this well, and the washing strategy involves three simple steps: The primary market and secondary market mutually cut (project parties running away vs. exchanges intervening); Market makers “big fish eating small fish” (for example, a certain exchange blew up $580 million overnight); Finally, the stablecoin “great escape” (the trading ratio of USDT/BTC surged to 67%). This time, the whales even used the “tariff” script, which can be termed as a “dimensionality reduction strike.”

$BTC Tariff policy impacts global markets, Bitcoin suffers a setback
Recently, the price of Bitcoin has significantly declined against the backdrop of general pressure on risk assets in the global market. This major digital currency has experienced a notable drop. This decline is closely related to the latest tariff policy released by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell to around 81,300 today. Less than 24 hours ago, Bitcoin had reached a daily high of nearly 88,000, and since then its value has dropped by more than 7%. Although the price of Bitcoin recovered somewhat after hitting an intraday low of about 81,300, at the time of writing, it was trading close to 83,000.

The tariff policy has become a catalyst for market downturns. After the White House announced this news, risk assets began to decline broadly. Bitcoin and many other digital assets suffered losses. The following day, after the U.S. stock market opened, the stock market experienced a significant drop. According to data from Google Finance, the benchmark S&P 500 index fell by 4.8% in a single day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index experienced an even larger decline, dropping by about 6% that day.

The recent drop in Bitcoin prices reflects the increasing correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the global macroeconomic environment. The Trump administration's tariff policy is interpreted by the market as potentially having a negative impact on global economic growth, triggering a sell-off of risk assets by investors. As a high-risk asset, the price movement of Bitcoin often shows a certain correlation with traditional risk assets such as stocks. The uncertainty of the tariff policy and the potential trade frictions have negatively affected market sentiment. This negative sentiment has spread to the cryptocurrency market, exacerbating the decline of Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market itself is already highly volatile, and any macroeconomic events or policy changes can trigger severe price fluctuations. This tariff announcement has undoubtedly become a triggering factor.

The Trump administration's latest tariff policy has had a significant negative impact on global markets and has directly led to the decline in Bitcoin prices. This again indicates that although the cryptocurrency market has its independence, it is still difficult to completely avoid the influence of macro factors under the global economic environment.