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Traditional views hold that a significant increase in the cryptocurrency market must rely on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but the logic of this bull market has fundamentally changed—global tech giants are effectively becoming "on-chain central banks" by issuing stablecoins, continuously bringing funds from the traditional financial system into the crypto world. This article will reveal how stablecoins restructure the flow of funds in the crypto market and why the core driving force of this bull market is no longer Federal Reserve policies, but rather the "stablecoin revolution" led by tech companies like Amazon, JD, and Apple. The limitations of traditional logic: Why the influence of interest rate cuts on the crypto market is weakening. Over the past decade, the cryptocurrency market has shown a high correlation with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with "Federal Reserve easing = significant increase in cryptocurrency market" becoming almost a market consensus. The core of this correlation lies in: in a low-interest environment, the cost of funds in the traditional financial system decreases, and some "hot money" flows into high-risk, high-return crypto assets. The 2020-2021 bull market is a typical example—when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to zero and launched unlimited quantitative easing, Bitcoin soared from $3,800 to $69,000. However, this mechanism has three fundamental flaws: 1. Low transmission efficiency: Funds in the traditional financial system need to go through multiple intermediaries (banks, brokerages, exchanges) to enter the crypto market, and each conversion is accompanied by friction losses; 2. Uncontrollable policies: The crypto market is completely passively dependent on Federal Reserve decisions, as evidenced by the market crash caused by aggressive rate hikes in 2022; 3. Capacity ceiling: A market driven solely by speculative funds is difficult to support the evolution of cryptocurrencies into a trillion-dollar asset class. More critically, this model fails to address the biggest pain point of the crypto economy—lack of a native fund creation mechanism. The paradigm shift of stablecoins: How tech giants become "on-chain central banks". The global regulatory breakthrough in 2025 completely changed this situation. The U.S. established a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins through the (GENIUS Act), while China allowed tech companies like JD and Alibaba to issue compliant stablecoins through pilot programs in Hong Kong. This marks that the crypto economy has obtained its own "currency creation mechanism", operated by global tech giants. The essence of stablecoin issuance is fund cross-chain bridging: when JD issues 100 million HKD stablecoins, it means that 100 million HKD in fiat currency is transferred from the traditional banking system to a blockchain custody account, while an equivalent crypto asset is created out of thin air on-chain. This process achieves three breakthroughs: - Fund efficiency revolution: Cross-border payment costs drop from 6% to 0.001%, and settlement time shortens from days to seconds; - Regulatory compliance: 100% reserve requirement and monthly audit requirements eliminate the risk of "naked coin issuance"; - Scene penetration: Stablecoins can be directly used in e-commerce payments, supply chain finance, and other real economy scenarios. The unique advantages of tech companies make them the best stablecoin issuers: 1. User base: JD's 580 million active users naturally create stablecoin usage scenarios; 2. Cross-border network: Amazon and Alibaba's global supply chain systems require efficient cross-border settlement tools; 3. Technical reserve: Leading tech companies have built complete blockchain infrastructure. Data perspective: How stablecoins restructure the funding landscape of the crypto market. The current stablecoin market size has reached $2.4 trillion, with nearly $200 billion invested in U.S. Treasury bonds. But even more astonishing is the growth potential—analysts predict that within the next two years, the demand for compliant stablecoins for short-term U.S. Treasury bonds could reach $1.6 trillion. Such a scale of capital inflow will have three levels of impact: Primary market (issuance level): - For every $1 stablecoin issued by tech companies, $1 in fiat currency is locked in the reserve account; - Most of these funds are allocated as cash or short-term Treasury bonds, forming the "on-chain monetary base"; - The larger the issuance, the more abundant the basic currency supply of the crypto economy. Secondary market (circulation level): - Stablecoins become the "highway" connecting traditional finance and DeFi; - It is estimated that $1 stablecoin generates an average of $5-7 in on-chain credit in DeFi protocols; - This currency multiplier effect significantly amplifies funding efficiency. Tertiary market (asset prices): - About 30% of new stablecoins will be directly exchanged for crypto assets like BTC and ETH; - Q1 2025 data shows that the inflow of stablecoins has a correlation coefficient of 0.87 with Bitcoin prices; - The "scenario-based stablecoins" issued by tech companies have stronger purchasing power stickiness than traditional stablecoins. East-West competition: A new geopolitical dimension of stablecoins. Behind this transformation is a covert battle for technological and financial hegemony between China and the U.S. The U.S. requires stablecoins to have 100% dollar reserves through the (GENIUS Act), effectively institutionalizing the on-chain dollar system; China, on the other hand, encourages companies like JD to issue stablecoins pegged to the HKD, constructing a "digital RMB + stablecoin" dual-track system. America's institutional advantages: - Establishing a federal-level regulatory framework for stablecoins with clear issuance rules; - Requiring reserves to be in cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, reinforcing dollar anchoring; - Attracting global stablecoin issuers to choose the U.S. compliance path through "regulatory arbitrage". China's scene breakthroughs: - JD's stablecoin is directly embedded in cross-border trade scenarios, forming a "payment-financing" closed loop; - The rapid approval mechanism of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (as fast as 120 days) is more efficient than the EU's MiCA; - The "digital RMB to stablecoin" model may become the new standard for cross-border payments. This competition objectively accelerates the issuance of stablecoins. In order to seize market share, tech companies in the East and West are competing to expand the scale of stablecoin issuance—this amounts to a "quantitative easing competition" on-chain, with the crypto market being the biggest beneficiary. Investment insights: How to grasp the new bull market driven by stablecoins. After understanding this paradigm shift, investors need to adjust their strategy framework: Focus on core indicator changes: - Shift from "the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size" to "total supply of compliant stablecoins"; - Monitor the "digital asset custody scale" in tech companies' quarterly financial reports; - Track "stablecoin turnover rate" and "DeFi protocol deposit volume" in on-chain data. Layout benefiting tracks: 1. Stablecoin infrastructure: Custodial banks, audit firms, compliance technology service providers; 2. On-chain liquidity protocols: Decentralized exchanges, lending platforms, derivatives protocols; 3. Compliant entry projects: Licensed exchanges, institutional-grade custody solutions. Beware of new risks: - The narrowing of regulatory arbitrage space may trigger short-term liquidity shocks; - The "anchoring quality differences" between different stablecoins will exacerbate market differentiation; - The rise in financial risks of tech companies will increase the credit coupling degree with their stablecoins. Future outlook: When all companies become "banks". The ultimate scenario of this transformation may be the arrival of the era of corporate monetization. When companies like Apple, Tesla, and Tencent issue their own stablecoins, the monetary creation function of traditional commercial banks will be completely deconstructed. By then: - Corporate balance sheets will be directly connected to the blockchain; - Supply chain finance will achieve "order as financing" with second-level turnover; - Personal wealth management will enter the "multi-stablecoin asset allocation" stage. In this process, the crypto market will complete its transformation from an "edge speculative market" to a "mainstream financial infrastructure". The driving force behind this transformation will no longer be the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, but rather the continuously growing issuance of stablecoins under the keyboards of tech companies—this is the most critical cognitive shift to understand this bull market.

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——Rational analysis and risk warning

In the cryptocurrency market, you can often hear some “big Vs” or so-called experts assert that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, especially interest rate cuts, have a direct causal relationship with the price trend of cryptocurrencies, and even encourage investors to buy large amounts of cryptocurrencies when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.

They claim that the Fed’s rate cuts will lead to a depreciation of the dollar, a general rise in asset prices, and that “decentralized” cryptocurrencies in particular will become the biggest winners. However, this view is extremely misleading and even dangerous.