Wyckoff Market View

- In the long term, as analyzed in the previous article, $BTC has reached enough targets of the PnF chart, so time is needed to build a new 'cause'. On the weekly frame, the current context is quite similar to what happened in early 2024 (Price retraced 50% of the push wave and then sideway for about 25 weeks), so BTC may not experience a strong increase until the end of Q2.

- On the Daily frame, the price is experiencing a recovery after rejecting the MA200 line. However, two issues need to be noted: This recovery has decreasing volume and is approaching the Overbought area of the downtrend channel, so there is not much room left for the price to continue rising.

In the article on March 5, I analyzed in detail the reasons indicating that $ADA will likely test the price range of 0.65.
Yesterday, March 11, as predicted, the price reached 0.647. So the next question is: Will the price go up or continue to drop?
To answer this question, we need to use tape reading techniques in the Wyckoff method.
From March 5 until now, we have experienced a continuous price decline for 5 days with quite good volume, indicating that the selling pressure is very consistent.

To predict trends, you need to understand them. The fact is that all trends, whether in the stock market, crypto, fashion, entertainment, or art, operate according to the 'Acceptance - Diffusion Model' and are influenced by Crowd Psychology.
For example, in the fashion industry, the life cycle of a fashion trend goes through 5 stages.
Stage 1 - Initiation:
A completely new style is often initiated by a famous person/group with significant influence in society.

Essentially, a transaction can only be matched when there are both buyers (Demand) and sellers (Supply).

Therefore, the volume of a candle will simultaneously reflect both Supply and Demand. However, inexperienced traders often jump to conclusions based on the color of the candle.

For example, when seeing a large-volume bearish candle, they will quickly conclude that it is a sign of Supply. In reality, sometimes a bearish candle (red candle) with high volume can indicate an increase in Demand.

Technically, $DOGE is still in a prolonged downward trend since the end of 2024. The reason may be due to the general context of the entire market. However, while the charts of other coins like $ETH , $NEAR , $SOL, XRP... are showing quite clear signs of absorption (large volume, small candle range), these signs on DOGE are very faint. So what is happening with DOGE coin??

According to the Wyckoff method, the price $BTC has reached the target of the Point and Figure chart. Thus, it is now time for the market to pause and build a "Cause" before continuing to move.

On the weekly chart, the current bullish wave is quite similar to that of Q1 2024. There was a 25-week long correction, and the price retraced 50% of the bullish wave. Therefore, it is likely that we will only see a strong price increase in the second half of Q2.

After posting an analysis about $ADA I happened to discover an interesting fact that ADA has not only been in an accumulation state for the past few months but actually has been in an accumulation structure starting from the beginning of 2022, and the current 'Re-accumulation' structure is actually the Backup Action of that larger structure.
And suddenly I noticed some interesting events.
- Right after being elected, Trump changed his stance from opposing crypto to supporting it, and even the Trump family launched the World Liberty Financial project.

At first glance, the chart in the 1D frame has a very strong bullish marubozu candle. But from the perspective of the methodology, the reality may disappoint many people.

First, it must be affirmed that in the long term, ADA is still in an accumulation structure waiting for a price increase. However, in the last 4 days, the trading volume surged, indicating a large amount of supply being poured into the market. The last time ADA had such a large volume was around mid-2022. Although this time we are in a contrasting context and it seems that the buying side has also gained the upper hand, it cannot be denied that the supply is still present.

As of today, NEAR has been moving sideways for nearly a month. This may frustrate holder friends. However, if we look at it more broadly, the weekly chart shows that NEAR is in the final stage of the accumulation process and will rise in the near future.

- First, let's look at the upward trend from October 2023 to the end of March 2024. This is an upward trend from a bottom area lasting over a year, in which the push waves have gradually increasing volume and the pullback waves have very small volume. This indicates that in this trend, the whales are acting as buyers.

1. Currently, $SUI is located at the intersection between two large buying zones.
- The first buying zone occurred in early November 2025 when the green candles had large ranges and strong volume. This indicates that buying pressure is completely overwhelming selling pressure; in other words, this shows that while weak hands are selling out, strong hands are buying in.
- This hypothesis is confirmed by the candle on February 3, 2025. This is a green pinbar candle with a spike in volume. This indicates the presence of strong hands acting as buyers.

ADA is at risk of testing the 0.65 area
In the long term, the price structure and decreasing supply indicate that it is showing characteristics of a reaccumulation process according to Wyckoff's method.
However, in the short term, everyone needs to be very cautious because:
- From March 2nd to March 4th, volume increased significantly, indicating that both Demand and Supply are rising.
- The issue lies in the candle on March 4th. Although it has volume equal to the candle on March 2nd, its size is much smaller. This means a large amount of supply has appeared, preventing the price from moving upwards.

XRP forms a re-accumulation structure
Phase A:
- The volume of phase A increased but the price only decreased slightly (about 50% of the most recent uptrend). This is a sign that some weak hands are selling (taking profit) but large institutions have absorbed this supply.
Phase B:
- In the early stage of phase B, the price moves within a narrow range and low volume, but then the price increased with a large range and volume increased. As a result, the price successfully broke through the resistance level drawn from the peak BC. This indicates that the selling side has exhausted and the buying side is dominating.

The market has just gone through a sell-off, but in the long term, we still have clear signs of a reaccumulation structure:
Phase A:
- The BC and CHoCH positions have seen a strong increase in supply, but the price did not break the support area around $2000.
- The volume has decreased, but the price has still surpassed the resistance level created by BC, indicating the exhaustion of the selling side.
>> Signs indicate that large institutions are absorbing supply from weak hands >> characteristics of the reaccumulation structure.