- In the long term, as analyzed in the previous article, $BTC has reached enough targets of the PnF chart, so time is needed to build a new 'cause'. On the weekly frame, the current context is quite similar to what happened in early 2024 (Price retraced 50% of the push wave and then sideway for about 25 weeks), so BTC may not experience a strong increase until the end of Q2.
- On the Daily frame, the price is experiencing a recovery after rejecting the MA200 line. However, two issues need to be noted: This recovery has decreasing volume and is approaching the Overbought area of the downtrend channel, so there is not much room left for the price to continue rising.
The next target is the $88500 level after which we will need to observe how the price reacts to this resistance area. However, overall it seems that the sellers still hold the advantage, so there is a possibility that the price will fail to break through the resistance of the downtrend channel and will have to return to the $76k - $78k level.
For those trading intraday, caution is advised. Although the scenario is quite bearish, it doesn't mean we can short immediately at the resistance area, because technically in intraday frames like H4, H1... BTC is still in an uptrend channel. Therefore, be patient and wait for clear confirmation signals before making a short decision.
