Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below).
Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it.
Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏
#Ethereum remains firmly in an uptrend, forming a robust monthly bullish candle with 12 hours to go. Long green candles signal strong potential for a push higher next month, targeting $4,100–$4,600
However, stay sharp: there’s a high likelihood of a dip to the 0.236–0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the candle’s body next month. Don’t let a pullback shake your bullish conviction!
Are dips likely? Absolutely. The developing weekly candle is far from bullish and resembles a classic local top. $ETH retreat to $3,150–$3,500 in August is a realistic scenario.
Stay disciplined and keep your eyes on the prize! 🚀
Last week’s candle closed with almost no sell tail — a strong bullish signal. Still, we may see a pullback at least to the previous week's open at 3754, which would be a bullish buy zone.
This week, #Ethereum is expected to maintain bullish momentum and at the very least wick above last week's high to grab liquidity from stop orders.
Remember what I mentioned about the HTF range top — if ETH manages to close above it, there’s a high probability of a push toward ~4600.
Even in the bullish scenario, a pullback to the range top at 4100 is likely after such a breakout.
Bearish scenario: $ETH enters a sideways consolidation between 3200 and 4000. The Monthly 20-SMA at 2880 acts as a magnet. Price doesn’t necessarily need to revisit it, but pushing much higher from here won’t be easy either. So, I don’t expect ETH to make a new ATH right away — that may have to wait until August.
Now back above Daily 20-sma. Volume on the dip was very impressive. That factor alone gives me more bullish vibes than price action itself (as weekly chart remains choppy and red).
Short term expect dip to week open zone at 117200-117300, but not necessary. Main target for nearest days is collecting liquidity above 119812 / 120300 / 120952 (all at once or at least one).
I am leaving longer term forecasts till tomorrow, when we will have July candle closed. So far it looks bullish enough to make new ATH in August, but at the same time has long enough sell tail to expect price to dip to 112-113k within the same month.
⏰ TG alarms set for #Bitcoin cross: 119812, 114667, 112350 & Quarter VWAP
The market has entered a volatile phase as it awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Rates are likely to remain unchanged, but this won't dampen the typical volatility expected on decision day.
#Bitcoin hit the 118.4k bounce target I highlighted yesterday. Despite a predominantly bearish sentiment, volume delta indicates potential for another upward move, at least to 118.6k. I'm holding off on shorting for now. Recent high-volume activity has occurred during dips, so any reversal swing would require significant volume on a pump rejection to confirm. Until then, there's no basis for shorting in this range.
Keep an eye on liquidity pools and the parallel channel range—most liquidity is concentrated above the upper trendline. Conversely, similar liquidity levels are only present below 117k.
We nail it every day 🎯 The short-term pullback played out as expected. I took a small long there and have now moved my stop-loss below yesterday’s NY low.
If price drops further, it will likely break below Friday’s NY high — which would offer an even better entry. But as long as $BTC stays above the Daily 20-SMA, I’m watching for a breakout to take out stops above 120951.
Last week’s candle closed with almost no sell tail — a strong bullish signal. Still, we may see a pullback at least to the previous week's open at 3754, which would be a bullish buy zone.
This week, #Ethereum is expected to maintain bullish momentum and at the very least wick above last week's high to grab liquidity from stop orders.
Remember what I mentioned about the HTF range top — if ETH manages to close above it, there’s a high probability of a push toward ~4600.
Even in the bullish scenario, a pullback to the range top at 4100 is likely after such a breakout.
Bearish scenario: $ETH enters a sideways consolidation between 3200 and 4000. The Monthly 20-SMA at 2880 acts as a magnet. Price doesn’t necessarily need to revisit it, but pushing much higher from here won’t be easy either. So, I don’t expect ETH to make a new ATH right away — that may have to wait until August.
We nail it every day 🎯 The short-term pullback played out as expected. I took a small long there and have now moved my stop-loss below yesterday’s NY low.
If price drops further, it will likely break below Friday’s NY high — which would offer an even better entry. But as long as $BTC stays above the Daily 20-SMA, I’m watching for a breakout to take out stops above 120951.
Over the weekend, $BTC pushed above Thursday’s pre-dump swing high — right when the overbought alarm was triggered. Overall, last week’s candle closed bullish, giving the market a solid chance to push higher this week, especially with Ethereum also holding its bullish structure.
In the short term, I expect a small pullback, which could offer a good opportunity to load longs.
Watch for the Daily 20-SMA cross alert (currently at 117871). Wicks may re-test Friday’s NY high at 116976 — if we see strong volume and bullish price action there, odds are good for the next swing to take out stops above 120951.
⏰ TG alarms set for #Bitcoin cross: 112350, 116976, 119812, Daily 20-sma & Quarter VWAP
Last week’s candle closed with almost no sell tail — a strong bullish signal. Still, we may see a pullback at least to the previous week's open at 3754, which would be a bullish buy zone.
This week, #Ethereum is expected to maintain bullish momentum and at the very least wick above last week's high to grab liquidity from stop orders.
Remember what I mentioned about the HTF range top — if ETH manages to close above it, there’s a high probability of a push toward ~4600.
Even in the bullish scenario, a pullback to the range top at 4100 is likely after such a breakout.
Bearish scenario: $ETH enters a sideways consolidation between 3200 and 4000. The Monthly 20-SMA at 2880 acts as a magnet. Price doesn’t necessarily need to revisit it, but pushing much higher from here won’t be easy either. So, I don’t expect ETH to make a new ATH right away — that may have to wait until August.
Bitcoin dumped while #Ethereum stayed strong — who could have imagined that just a few months ago? 😅
There’s a lot of liquidity sitting above ~3771 up to ~3828 (rough levels), making it easier to push the price higher first. Such a move would also make the overall chart look much more bullish.
Comparable liquidity pools are hiding under 3590 and 3505, which are much further away than the upside targets. So, I believe $ETH has decent chances to climb first before anything else plays out.
Over the weekend, $BTC pushed above Thursday’s pre-dump swing high — right when the overbought alarm was triggered. Overall, last week’s candle closed bullish, giving the market a solid chance to push higher this week, especially with Ethereum also holding its bullish structure.
In the short term, I expect a small pullback, which could offer a good opportunity to load longs.
Watch for the Daily 20-SMA cross alert (currently at 117871). Wicks may re-test Friday’s NY high at 116976 — if we see strong volume and bullish price action there, odds are good for the next swing to take out stops above 120951.
⏰ TG alarms set for #Bitcoin cross: 112350, 116976, 119812, Daily 20-sma & Quarter VWAP
Bitcoin dumped while #Ethereum stayed strong — who could have imagined that just a few months ago? 😅
There’s a lot of liquidity sitting above ~3771 up to ~3828 (rough levels), making it easier to push the price higher first. Such a move would also make the overall chart look much more bullish.
Comparable liquidity pools are hiding under 3590 and 3505, which are much further away than the upside targets. So, I believe $ETH has decent chances to climb first before anything else plays out.
There’s a good chance the CME gap will be closed today. That was inevitable anyway — my “green spot” target has been waiting for this move in my Daily Reviews since July 14th 😉
Too early to say whether #Bitcoin will dip lower. Mainly because **ETH hasn’t followed with the same dip, which makes me think it could push BTC back up. But that’s theory — in practice, ETH might just follow BTC with a delay.
Still, we’re in an uptrend, so the bias remains bullish. In the short term, I expect a BTC bounce to ~117k (this week’s open). After that, $BTC will either consolidate around the Daily 20-SMA or make another leg down toward ~112.3k.
As expected, $BTC continued climbing — it’s still in a strong uptrend, and that makes the upside potential hard to predict. My alarm keeps flashing overbought signals on the 30m, but so far, the market just keeps pushing higher.
On the CME daily chart, there’s a gap between 114380–115635 — that’s the nearest strong magnet zone for any meaningful correction. But since it’s outside the current uptrend, #Bitcoin could easily go much higher before revisiting that area.
Closer levels like 120100 and 121100 are within the trend structure, so dips into those zones wouldn’t damage the bullish outlook.
✍️ Just take a moment to notice how we caught every dip before the pump 😎 Hope my TA helped you grab some profit along the way — even though I’ve mostly been away from the charts myself.
$BTC dominance making a dead cat bounce after Ethereum's epic pump. Hard to say, how long that bounce may take. Most probably will swing in between 61.1% and 64% Next leg down will be to ~58-59%
Ethereum is consolidating below the HTF range top. Dips are likely but should be viewed as opportunities to accumulate, as the 4th breakout attempt will most likely succeed.
The key question is how deep #Ethereum can dip at this stage. If exponential growth is to continue, corrections should remain shallow. The nearest liquidity level is just below Friday’s close at 3546, followed by a deeper zone under the 2024 close at 3336.
A deeper drop would slow progress, but that’s not critical. The top of this cycle for the entire crypto market is still expected in Q4, giving ETH plenty of time to recover and push higher.
I nailed yesterday’s sequence of moves 👌🏼 But the price action brought no real results, as #Bitcoin is still chopping within the same narrow range between this and last week’s opens (117216 & 119265). Understanding these levels makes it easy to visualize how the weekly candle is forming 💡
Main scenarios remain unchanged: 1. 4H close above 119.3k → likely push for liquidity above 120300 and 120951. 2. 4H close below 117.2k → likely drop below 115.5k.
The $BTC CME gap at 114380–115635 is still open and continues to act as a price magnet.
My short-term forecast played out — BTC swept the nearest liquidity but failed to push higher, as Ethereum didn’t support the bullish move.
For today, I expect a drop below 118150, followed by an attempt to climb back above 119k.
1. If #Bitcoin finds strong support at 119k, it will likely push for liquidity above 120951. 2. If it fails to hold acceptance above 119k, I see no other scenario but a drop to 117.2k and eventually below 115.5k.
$BTC CME gap at 114380–115635 — still open and act as a magnet for price.
⏰ Alarms set for: 115678 / 112350 and Daily 20-sma
I gave buy zone at <240 ✅ I gave buy zone <543 ✅ If you didn't buy $BNB back then, you've missed the train.
Now new potential buy zone is around $700-750
I don't write much about Binance Coin, because for me it is almost the same blue chip investment instrument as Bitcoin. I buy it on the dips and NEVER SELL. It even gives passive income with all the airdrops and launchpad rewards.
Wise Analyze
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Bullish
$BNB weekly chart. Uptrend started in February 2024 never faded away and now its returning to active phase. I believe within nearest weeks we may expect BNB to cross above 730 and 746
Cross above ATH at 794 will be a historical event as this move can take price to ~1250 / 1500 / 1765 - these are my targets for the end of this year.
Ethereum is consolidating below the HTF range top. Dips are likely but should be viewed as opportunities to accumulate, as the 4th breakout attempt will most likely succeed.
The key question is how deep #Ethereum can dip at this stage. If exponential growth is to continue, corrections should remain shallow. The nearest liquidity level is just below Friday’s close at 3546, followed by a deeper zone under the 2024 close at 3336.
A deeper drop would slow progress, but that’s not critical. The top of this cycle for the entire crypto market is still expected in Q4, giving ETH plenty of time to recover and push higher.
My short-term forecast played out — BTC swept the nearest liquidity but failed to push higher, as Ethereum didn’t support the bullish move.
For today, I expect a drop below 118150, followed by an attempt to climb back above 119k.
1. If #Bitcoin finds strong support at 119k, it will likely push for liquidity above 120951. 2. If it fails to hold acceptance above 119k, I see no other scenario but a drop to 117.2k and eventually below 115.5k.
$BTC CME gap at 114380–115635 — still open and act as a magnet for price.
⏰ Alarms set for: 115678 / 112350 and Daily 20-sma
Ethereum has slowed down but still leads the volume race. However, ETH forming a small local top gives BTC a chance to make a move on its own.
I expect the first step to be collecting liquidity above 119721, which aligns with the developing Quarterly VWAP VAH. The rest will depend on how long ETH can hold above 3600. I’m not looking for BTC shorts (overbought ETH looks much better for that). The risk/reward for #Bitcoin shorts is poor, while dips remain far more promising in terms of potential profit.
Dip zones remain unchanged — check the key levels at the beginning of the review.
$BTC CME gap at 114380–115635 — still open and act as a magnet for price.
⏰ TG alarms set for: 115678 / 112350 and Daily 20-sma