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The Big Short.
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$BOND
I shorted this coin yesterday and hit the stop-loss level. Facing this familiar chart, my heart is filled with complex emotions. Shorting at the price level of 1.451 was almost at the peak of the 1-hour and 4-hour candles, marking a watershed between the bulls and bears. Every attempt at this price point is accompanied by significant changes in trading volume, as if narrating the market's hesitation and struggle.
The relationship between volume and price is particularly important in this decision. As the price approaches 1.451, the trading volume gradually weakens despite a significant increase in price. This indicates that the market is encountering strong resistance at this price level, and the buying power is insufficient to push the price higher. This phenomenon of volume-price divergence often signals a price correction, providing a good opportunity for shorting.
BOUND will be delisted in 4 days, like a time bomb known to everyone, hanging over the market. Investors always look for opportunities to sell before the delisting. This emotional pressure makes it easier for the price to pull back when approaching 1.455, thus creating an excellent opportunity for shorting.
The path of trading is filled with unknowns and challenges. Continue to remain calm and rational, constantly learning and reflecting. I wish everyone finds their own piece of tranquility amidst the waves of the market.
I shorted this coin yesterday and hit the stop-loss level. Facing this familiar chart, my heart is filled with complex emotions. Shorting at the price level of 1.451 was almost at the peak of the 1-hour and 4-hour candles, marking a watershed between the bulls and bears. Every attempt at this price point is accompanied by significant changes in trading volume, as if narrating the market's hesitation and struggle.
The relationship between volume and price is particularly important in this decision. As the price approaches 1.451, the trading volume gradually weakens despite a significant increase in price. This indicates that the market is encountering strong resistance at this price level, and the buying power is insufficient to push the price higher. This phenomenon of volume-price divergence often signals a price correction, providing a good opportunity for shorting.
BOUND will be delisted in 4 days, like a time bomb known to everyone, hanging over the market. Investors always look for opportunities to sell before the delisting. This emotional pressure makes it easier for the price to pull back when approaching 1.455, thus creating an excellent opportunity for shorting.
The path of trading is filled with unknowns and challenges. Continue to remain calm and rational, constantly learning and reflecting. I wish everyone finds their own piece of tranquility amidst the waves of the market.
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$DOGE
I really like to trade frequently in DOGE. By shorting, I gradually increased my account from 150U a week ago to 500U-600U now (including some open floating profit orders). In each operation, I strictly control the leverage and only use 2-3 times to avoid unnecessary risks due to drastic market fluctuations.
Everyone knows that the disadvantages of frequent trading are obvious, so I won’t say more here. Let’s talk about the advantages, such as being able to respond to short-term market fluctuations more flexibly, especially in a volatile currency like DOGE, there are many short-term opportunities every day.
By capturing the high opportunity when the price is close to the upper track of the Bollinger Band, I entered the market in time to short when I failed to rush up many times, and at the same time referred to the changes in trading volume to confirm the continuation or reversal of the trend. When the price falls back and the volume increases, the confidence in holding positions will naturally increase, and when the rebound shrinks, the profit-taking opportunity can be better grasped.
It is precisely because of this flexibility that I can use a small amount of money to seize every suitable opportunity during this period and gradually expand the account funds.
The future goal is to continue to maintain a light leverage and a stable trading rhythm, while paying more attention to the observation of the big cycle to avoid ignoring the core direction of the trend due to frequent trading.
I really like to trade frequently in DOGE. By shorting, I gradually increased my account from 150U a week ago to 500U-600U now (including some open floating profit orders). In each operation, I strictly control the leverage and only use 2-3 times to avoid unnecessary risks due to drastic market fluctuations.
Everyone knows that the disadvantages of frequent trading are obvious, so I won’t say more here. Let’s talk about the advantages, such as being able to respond to short-term market fluctuations more flexibly, especially in a volatile currency like DOGE, there are many short-term opportunities every day.
By capturing the high opportunity when the price is close to the upper track of the Bollinger Band, I entered the market in time to short when I failed to rush up many times, and at the same time referred to the changes in trading volume to confirm the continuation or reversal of the trend. When the price falls back and the volume increases, the confidence in holding positions will naturally increase, and when the rebound shrinks, the profit-taking opportunity can be better grasped.
It is precisely because of this flexibility that I can use a small amount of money to seize every suitable opportunity during this period and gradually expand the account funds.
The future goal is to continue to maintain a light leverage and a stable trading rhythm, while paying more attention to the observation of the big cycle to avoid ignoring the core direction of the trend due to frequent trading.
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$1MBABYDOGE
I just observed on the 1M BABYDOGE chart that the price has entered a clearly Premium area, which is a signal of market premium in the short term. The price has broken through the previous high and touched the Weak High area, with trading volume increasing during this process, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Such a rapid surge often carries significant speculative characteristics, especially near strong resistance levels, where bullish strength may be nearing exhaustion.
From a structural perspective, the price has shown multiple CHoCH signals during the rally, which is typically a sign of a shift in the balance of power between bulls and bears. Combined with the previous BOS signals, it can be inferred that there is a 75% chance the market will enter a correction phase.
The current price has also moved far away from the Equilibrium area, and the market always tends to revert to equilibrium, which makes me more inclined to attempt shorting (although I never go long).
Since this is my first exposure to the BABYDOGE cryptocurrency, this trade leans towards seeking steady gains. I only used 2x leverage and half a position to test the waters, and although my position is relatively light, it is based on cautious considerations. Looking back at this week's trading, I initially started with 150 USDT to test the waters, but after continuously optimizing my strategy, my account funds have risen to 440 USDT, nearly tripling my returns.
The market's volatility and opportunities are everywhere; the key is to catch a rhythm that suits you and not to be blindly aggressive.
I just observed on the 1M BABYDOGE chart that the price has entered a clearly Premium area, which is a signal of market premium in the short term. The price has broken through the previous high and touched the Weak High area, with trading volume increasing during this process, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Such a rapid surge often carries significant speculative characteristics, especially near strong resistance levels, where bullish strength may be nearing exhaustion.
From a structural perspective, the price has shown multiple CHoCH signals during the rally, which is typically a sign of a shift in the balance of power between bulls and bears. Combined with the previous BOS signals, it can be inferred that there is a 75% chance the market will enter a correction phase.
The current price has also moved far away from the Equilibrium area, and the market always tends to revert to equilibrium, which makes me more inclined to attempt shorting (although I never go long).
Since this is my first exposure to the BABYDOGE cryptocurrency, this trade leans towards seeking steady gains. I only used 2x leverage and half a position to test the waters, and although my position is relatively light, it is based on cautious considerations. Looking back at this week's trading, I initially started with 150 USDT to test the waters, but after continuously optimizing my strategy, my account funds have risen to 440 USDT, nearly tripling my returns.
The market's volatility and opportunities are everywhere; the key is to catch a rhythm that suits you and not to be blindly aggressive.
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$LPT
Today, LPT's single-day increase reached as high as 30%, with a peak touching 24.464. Faced with such a rapid rise and an obviously overheated sentiment, I shorted at 24.310, which was almost at the peak.
This is my first time dealing with a cryptocurrency like LPT. To control risk, I only used 2x leverage. Compared to assets I am more familiar with and have more confidence in, I would only use up to 3x leverage at most, and in situations with higher uncertainty, I would rather earn less but prioritize protecting my principal and reducing potential risks.
From the market performance perspective, although LPT's increase is eye-catching, the overall market trend is clearly downward. On the technical side, the pressure above the premium area is evident, with the price failing to effectively break through after several tests, followed by a certain degree of pullback, currently approaching the equilibrium zone and the support area below. For this type of trend, I tend to believe that the market will primarily focus on correction in the short term.
The equilibrium area shows obvious attractiveness, and currently, my take-profit level is set at 20.7. We are currently approaching this balance point. This is a key area worth paying attention to, as it may become a critical position for short-term battles between bulls and bears.
A veteran investor in US and Hong Kong stocks for 10 years, now a newcomer in the crypto world. This account has increased from 150 USDT to 320 USDT in just 3 days, with a maximum leverage of 3X (not including the profits from this trade). Finally, I wish everyone prosperity!
Today, LPT's single-day increase reached as high as 30%, with a peak touching 24.464. Faced with such a rapid rise and an obviously overheated sentiment, I shorted at 24.310, which was almost at the peak.
This is my first time dealing with a cryptocurrency like LPT. To control risk, I only used 2x leverage. Compared to assets I am more familiar with and have more confidence in, I would only use up to 3x leverage at most, and in situations with higher uncertainty, I would rather earn less but prioritize protecting my principal and reducing potential risks.
From the market performance perspective, although LPT's increase is eye-catching, the overall market trend is clearly downward. On the technical side, the pressure above the premium area is evident, with the price failing to effectively break through after several tests, followed by a certain degree of pullback, currently approaching the equilibrium zone and the support area below. For this type of trend, I tend to believe that the market will primarily focus on correction in the short term.
The equilibrium area shows obvious attractiveness, and currently, my take-profit level is set at 20.7. We are currently approaching this balance point. This is a key area worth paying attention to, as it may become a critical position for short-term battles between bulls and bears.
A veteran investor in US and Hong Kong stocks for 10 years, now a newcomer in the crypto world. This account has increased from 150 USDT to 320 USDT in just 3 days, with a maximum leverage of 3X (not including the profits from this trade). Finally, I wish everyone prosperity!
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$PNUT
Shorting at the price point of 1.545 was almost at the highest point of the day, which is both a victory of technical analysis and a stroke of luck.
After carefully studying the technical charts, I found that the price had reached the upper bound of the ascending channel. This trend line has played an important resistance role in previous rebounds, and this time is no exception. The MACD indicator also started to show signs of divergence. Although the price is still reaching new highs, the momentum is weakening. It is like a car driving at high speed; although it is still moving forward, the sound of the engine is beginning to weaken.
To control risk, I chose low leverage and only opened a position of 2 times. Starting with 150 USDT just 2 days ago, I am fortunate that it is now close to 300 USDT.
Next, I need to set a reasonable take-profit point. After repeated study, I believe that 1.374 is an ideal take-profit point. This price point corresponds not only to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous upward movement, but it is also an important psychological price level.
As my personal trading diary, this is also for everyone's reference, and corrections are welcome.
Shorting at the price point of 1.545 was almost at the highest point of the day, which is both a victory of technical analysis and a stroke of luck.
After carefully studying the technical charts, I found that the price had reached the upper bound of the ascending channel. This trend line has played an important resistance role in previous rebounds, and this time is no exception. The MACD indicator also started to show signs of divergence. Although the price is still reaching new highs, the momentum is weakening. It is like a car driving at high speed; although it is still moving forward, the sound of the engine is beginning to weaken.
To control risk, I chose low leverage and only opened a position of 2 times. Starting with 150 USDT just 2 days ago, I am fortunate that it is now close to 300 USDT.
Next, I need to set a reasonable take-profit point. After repeated study, I believe that 1.374 is an ideal take-profit point. This price point corresponds not only to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous upward movement, but it is also an important psychological price level.
As my personal trading diary, this is also for everyone's reference, and corrections are welcome.
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$BTC
United States
The United States is the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world, with 213,297 Bitcoins, which were obtained through cryptocurrency seizures and are currently valued at approximately $14.82 billion. A significant portion of this comes from the shutdown of the 'Silk Road' (an online black market). When the U.S. government shut down Silk Road, it seized about 69,000 Bitcoins.
China
Despite a severe crackdown on cryptocurrency trading and mining, China has become the second-largest holder of Bitcoin due to seizure actions. The Chinese government currently holds approximately 190,000 Bitcoins, valued at around $13.2 billion. These assets mainly come from the 'PlusToken' Ponzi scheme, which promised investors returns as high as 30%.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom has seized approximately 61,000 Bitcoins, valued at around $4.24 billion, through anti-money laundering efforts. An employee of a Chinese takeaway linked to several wallets was found converting cryptocurrency to cash or assets and transferring it to Dubai. These seizures indicate the UK's commitment to combating financial crimes involving digital assets, making it the third largest country in Bitcoin reserves.
El Salvador
El Salvador is the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender. Unlike other countries that mainly hold Bitcoin through seizures, El Salvador actively purchases Bitcoin. It currently holds 5,800 Bitcoins, valued at about $400 million. Since 2021, the country has initiated a 'one Bitcoin a day' program, purchasing one Bitcoin daily regardless of market price.
Ukraine
Most of Ukraine's Bitcoins come from aid donations to combat the war against Russia. In February 2022, the government publicly requested donations through social media by sharing a wallet address, and has received 651.3 Bitcoins (approximately $45.23 million) to date. Additionally, the 'Come Back Alive' foundation received another 685.1 Bitcoins (approximately $47.58 million). The total donations amount to 1,336.4 Bitcoins, but due to ongoing use, the remaining balance is only 186.18 Bitcoins (approximately $12.93 million).
Germany
Germany has seized 46,359 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $3.02 billion, through the enforcement of cryptocurrency-related laws. These Bitcoins came from a 2013 seizure action against an infringing website that converted piracy revenues into Bitcoin. However, as of July 12, 2024, Germany has emptied its entire reserve.
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$BTC
Congratulations to BTC for successfully hitting 100,000 USD. This is a historic moment and also a concentrated explosion of market sentiment. From November 22 to yesterday, December 4, the trading volume on the daily chart has significantly decreased compared to the previous market, while the Fear and Greed Index reached 81, and the CMC Altcoin Season Index hit 83. The market heat appears to be unprecedentedly high, but hidden signals of cooling are lurking behind.
Typically, in the face of significant psychological thresholds like 100,000 USD, the market finds it difficult to achieve a breakthrough in one go. Even if a successful breakthrough occurs, it often requires a period of consolidation and strength accumulation. Historically, when BTC breaks through important resistance levels, it is often accompanied by certain fluctuations and high-level volatility. This is not only a correction of the previous rise but also a buildup for a stronger increase in the future. This attempt to reach 100,000 will likely be no exception; I believe it may experience a momentum decline adjustment period in the short term, but this does not affect the long-term positive trend.
Technically, the daily MACD has already shown high-level convergence, with the momentum bars gradually shortening, and the pressure on the upper Bollinger Band remains significant. Although the volume breakout has been completed, whether it can hold steadily in the future depends on whether the trading volume can continue to expand, and whether funds can flow back into BTC.
Short-term risk signals are increasing, but in the long run, BTC is still a highly promising asset. Every breakthrough of a historic high point requires time to digest resistance; what we need more is patience.
Congratulations to BTC for successfully hitting 100,000 USD. This is a historic moment and also a concentrated explosion of market sentiment. From November 22 to yesterday, December 4, the trading volume on the daily chart has significantly decreased compared to the previous market, while the Fear and Greed Index reached 81, and the CMC Altcoin Season Index hit 83. The market heat appears to be unprecedentedly high, but hidden signals of cooling are lurking behind.
Typically, in the face of significant psychological thresholds like 100,000 USD, the market finds it difficult to achieve a breakthrough in one go. Even if a successful breakthrough occurs, it often requires a period of consolidation and strength accumulation. Historically, when BTC breaks through important resistance levels, it is often accompanied by certain fluctuations and high-level volatility. This is not only a correction of the previous rise but also a buildup for a stronger increase in the future. This attempt to reach 100,000 will likely be no exception; I believe it may experience a momentum decline adjustment period in the short term, but this does not affect the long-term positive trend.
Technically, the daily MACD has already shown high-level convergence, with the momentum bars gradually shortening, and the pressure on the upper Bollinger Band remains significant. Although the volume breakout has been completed, whether it can hold steadily in the future depends on whether the trading volume can continue to expand, and whether funds can flow back into BTC.
Short-term risk signals are increasing, but in the long run, BTC is still a highly promising asset. Every breakthrough of a historic high point requires time to digest resistance; what we need more is patience.
See original
$DOGE $BTC I have never considered myself a trading genius; my investments in Hong Kong and US stocks can only achieve an annualized return of 20%. I have always believed that stability is the key to investing, which is why I never dare to use high leverage. This time, as I ventured into cryptocurrency trading, I only invested 150 USDT of principal, and to my surprise, my luck was good; yesterday my account had grown to 230 USDT.
Technical analysis is an important basis for my decision-making. At the price point of 0.43, the DOGE coin had attempted to break through multiple times but failed each time, forming a clear resistance level. The MACD indicator shows that the fast line and the slow line formed a dead cross above the zero axis, indicating that the short-term market momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has also fallen from the overbought zone to the neutral zone, further confirming the change in market sentiment. Additionally, the Fibonacci retracement achieved a resonance on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, with technical signals pointing to one conclusion: there is a demand for a pullback in DOGE coin in the short term, and the time to short is ripe.
Risk management is an indispensable part of my trading. Although my account has now grown to 230 USDT, I am well aware of the uncertainties of market fluctuations. Therefore, I have set a strict stop-loss line at around a loss of 23 USDT (10%), which is at the 0.447 position. This way, even if the market does not move as expected, I can quickly stop the loss and avoid greater losses. Meanwhile, to lock in some profits, I have set a defensive take-profit level at 0.4268. This dual protection strategy allows me to remain calm in the face of market fluctuations.
I hope my experience can provide some insights for friends who are also exploring the cryptocurrency market.
Technical analysis is an important basis for my decision-making. At the price point of 0.43, the DOGE coin had attempted to break through multiple times but failed each time, forming a clear resistance level. The MACD indicator shows that the fast line and the slow line formed a dead cross above the zero axis, indicating that the short-term market momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has also fallen from the overbought zone to the neutral zone, further confirming the change in market sentiment. Additionally, the Fibonacci retracement achieved a resonance on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, with technical signals pointing to one conclusion: there is a demand for a pullback in DOGE coin in the short term, and the time to short is ripe.
Risk management is an indispensable part of my trading. Although my account has now grown to 230 USDT, I am well aware of the uncertainties of market fluctuations. Therefore, I have set a strict stop-loss line at around a loss of 23 USDT (10%), which is at the 0.447 position. This way, even if the market does not move as expected, I can quickly stop the loss and avoid greater losses. Meanwhile, to lock in some profits, I have set a defensive take-profit level at 0.4268. This dual protection strategy allows me to remain calm in the face of market fluctuations.
I hope my experience can provide some insights for friends who are also exploring the cryptocurrency market.
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$1000CHEEMS
As a system learner of technical analysis, although I have been in the Hong Kong and US stock markets for many years, the pace of the cryptocurrency world still makes me realize what it means to be "ever-changing." My first attempt had a small principal, only 150 USDT, with a small leverage, but five trades made me experience the complete trading chain of stop-loss, take-profit, and defensive exit.
Two stop-losses taught me not to overly trust so-called "technical levels." Even seemingly solid support can be instantly breached. Small cryptocurrencies that lack liquidity are more prone to "false breakouts" or "stop-loss hunting" situations.
Stop-loss is certainly painful but necessary; technical analysis is not omnipotent; it is only part of the probabilities, and there are too many moments when market fluctuations exceed logic.
The only trade that reached the predetermined level can only be described as the combination of luck, discipline, and planning. If I had not exited according to plan, the result could have been a completely different outcome.
Meme coins like Cheems, assets with poor liquidity and high volatility, amplify the importance of technical analysis through emotions and news. The effectiveness of combining Bollinger Bands and RSI is still relatively high, but viewing the cryptocurrency market with the mindset of the US or Hong Kong stock markets is clearly insufficient. It also made me rethink the survival strategies for small accounts; having small positions to experiment and taking profits and losses in batches is more logical than going all in.
Trading is a long-term self-cultivation. Regardless of how the market changes, calmness and discipline are the foundation for long-term survival. Every trade, even if it is a mistake, is a cornerstone for the future.
As a system learner of technical analysis, although I have been in the Hong Kong and US stock markets for many years, the pace of the cryptocurrency world still makes me realize what it means to be "ever-changing." My first attempt had a small principal, only 150 USDT, with a small leverage, but five trades made me experience the complete trading chain of stop-loss, take-profit, and defensive exit.
Two stop-losses taught me not to overly trust so-called "technical levels." Even seemingly solid support can be instantly breached. Small cryptocurrencies that lack liquidity are more prone to "false breakouts" or "stop-loss hunting" situations.
Stop-loss is certainly painful but necessary; technical analysis is not omnipotent; it is only part of the probabilities, and there are too many moments when market fluctuations exceed logic.
The only trade that reached the predetermined level can only be described as the combination of luck, discipline, and planning. If I had not exited according to plan, the result could have been a completely different outcome.
Meme coins like Cheems, assets with poor liquidity and high volatility, amplify the importance of technical analysis through emotions and news. The effectiveness of combining Bollinger Bands and RSI is still relatively high, but viewing the cryptocurrency market with the mindset of the US or Hong Kong stock markets is clearly insufficient. It also made me rethink the survival strategies for small accounts; having small positions to experiment and taking profits and losses in batches is more logical than going all in.
Trading is a long-term self-cultivation. Regardless of how the market changes, calmness and discipline are the foundation for long-term survival. Every trade, even if it is a mistake, is a cornerstone for the future.
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