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Trading is a very painful thing, especially for newly launched altcoins that can only be shorted #GENIUS稳定币法案 #美联储FOMC会议

Change Your Perspective on 'Luck'
Luck is just probability: The outcome of trading is largely a result of probability and strategy; success and failure are not solely a reflection of luck, but rather the result of execution and strategy.
Controllable luck: Luck cannot be changed, but by optimizing trading strategies, controlling risks, and improving skills, you can create more opportunities for 'luck'. #BTC

Why has BTC been rising continuously while altcoins have been dropping?
BTC participants include institutional investors and national-level buyers, strategic assets, reserve assets, status similar to gold, long-term allocation, unlimited purchases. #比特币突破11万美元

📈 The stablecoin bill has a clear path for benefits:
• Increase in stablecoin usage
• DeFi trading & lending protocols benefit
• RWA becomes easier to comply and develop
• Layer 1 on-chain activities heat up
• Promote traditional capital entry

📊 Potential beneficiary assets overview (partial):
• $USDC / $USDT: Already meets reserve & transparency requirements
• $CRV / $AAVE / $PENDLE: Direct growth in stablecoin usage
• $ETH / $TRX / $SOL: Expansion of on-chain stablecoin ecosystem
• $MKR / $FXS / $ENA: Need to adjust reserve structure to adapt
#GENIUS稳定币法案

Next, pay attention to the stablecoin market during pullbacks‼️‼️
Select leading projects for strong positioning

1. Aave
Issued the stablecoin $GHO

2. ENA
One of the largest Ponzi schemes in this round

3. FXS
The only surviving stablecoin from the era of stablecoin algorithms, not considered strong

4. LQTY
Not a leader, with a relatively low market cap

5. CRV
Established DeFi, stablecoin #GENIUS稳定币法案

#The market has several key issues; 1. The trends of BTC and ETH are clearly upward, with large institutions like BlackRock and various governments buying them daily as strategic reserves. 2. In the altcoin market, a large number of new coins are continuously issued, and the market's available funds are limited, with only old users and on-site funds engaging in speculation. 3. Only meme coins are driving market sentiment speculation.

Retail Investor Psychology + Speculative Instinct + Cryptocurrency Market Structure.
Most retail investors prefer to buy altcoins, **the main reasons are as follows:

✅ 1. Psychological Aspect: Retail investors naturally pursue the "feeling of getting rich quickly"
Bitcoin Altcoins
Stable growth, low volatility Easily doubles in a short time
A 2-3% increase in one day is strong A 20%-200% increase in one day is possible
Hard to achieve "financial freedom" Gives the illusion of "quick wealth"

💬 To put it bluntly:

"Buy BTC, it takes a year to double;
Buy altcoins, it might double by tomorrow."

✅ 2. Price Illusion: Retail investors are more easily attracted by "low prices"
1 BTC = $100,000, many people are afraid to buy after seeing this

1 altcoin = $0.001, looks "cheaper" and easier to "buy a lot"

💥 But in reality, the amount spent is the same:
For example, $100 to buy BTC vs $100 to buy 100,000 worthless tokens, essentially the same, but the psychological feeling is different.

This is called: "Unit Bias + Quantity Illusion"

✅ 3. Community and Platform Recommendation Mechanisms Amplify the Trend
Major platforms launch new coins → High buzz, FOMO emotions erupt

KOL hype, media trending topics, launch events → Many "bull market memories" start from altcoins

Everyone in the group is discussing: "XXX pumped! XXX hasn't pumped yet!"

📌 Altcoins have "stories" and "buzz", making them easier to spread and hype.

✅ 4. The growth of Bitcoin is indeed getting smaller
BTC has risen from $1 to $60,000, already a 60,000 times increase;

Now that the market cap is too large, it requires $1 trillion to increase tenfold, which is unrealistic;

Altcoins have smaller market caps and concentrated chips, making 5x and 10x easy (at least in the early stages)

This leads retail investors to think that "Bitcoin can't grow as much as altcoins", even though altcoins are riskier.

✅ 5. Most people are gamblers, not investors
Most retail investors do not understand technical analysis or fundamentals, their purchases depend on "hearsay, buzz, and feelings".

Altcoins are highly stimulating, like a lottery, naturally more attractive:

"Even if I lose 8 times, as long as I hit once for 10 times, I can turn it around!"

This is a typical "risk-return preference illusion".

Why do many people say 'Shanzhai = Scam'? Is this statement true?

1. Why do Shanzhai coins skyrocket and then quickly halve? This is determined by the mechanism.
✅ Reason 1: The circulation design is 'extremely unfair'.
When many new coins are launched, only 1%-5% of the tokens are truly circulating, while the remaining 90% are held by the project parties, institutions, and early private placements.

Once the price is raised, they start to release in batches + dump.

Newbies buy these high-priced coins, unaware that a massive sell-off is waiting behind.

📉 Example: 1 million coins in circulation at launch, total supply of 1 billion, with 99.9% waiting to be sold later.

✅ Reason 2: KOL + exchange collaboration to harvest retail investors.
Many projects lay down 'public opinion + hype' before launching, using influencers to promote and community speculation, making people feel that 'the bull market is back'.

On the launch day, the price surges, and a bunch of retail investors rush in.

Next, market makers and project parties jointly 'wash trades', raising the price and quickly exiting.

✅ Reason 3: No real value support, relying solely on emotional speculation.
Shanzhai coins are essentially 'passing the parcel'; no one really cares what they do, everyone just wants to 'catch the limit-up'.

No real users, no cash flow income, no ecological demand, only 'telling stories'.

2. How do project parties + market-making teams 'design harvesting models'?
Stage Content Underlying Logic
1️⃣ Preheat Prophetic stories, buying ads, buying trending topics, asking KOLs to promote Creating FOMO emotions
2️⃣ Launch Binance/OKX new coin launch, surging price Window for selling
3️⃣ Wash Trading Rapid fluctuations, inducing buying and selling Washing away unstable chips
4️⃣ Falling below the issue price Retail panic, institutions complete back-and-forth to break even No one is taking over
5️⃣ Long-term zeroing Shrinking transaction volume, losing topics, no technical support Project demise

3. Is 'Shanzhai coins = scam' true?
This statement is not entirely correct, but 95% of projects are indeed like this. The following is the classification logic:

Type Feature What should you do?
✅ Potential Projects Have real applications, transparent teams, and financing capabilities Medium to long-term layout, regular follow-up
⚠️ Speculative Hot Projects Rely on narrative to hype concepts, technology is not grounded Only do quick in-and-out, don’t get attached
❌ Clear scams No code, runaway team, three-no white papers Firmly avoid
#代币发射平台竞争加剧

【Core Understanding of Altcoin Trading - How to Avoid Major Losses and Increase Winning Rates】

If you want to engage in altcoin contract trading, the following three points are crucial:

1. Choose the right popular tracks for explosive opportunities
There are hundreds or thousands of altcoins, but not every one of them is worth participating in. You must focus on currently popular themes, such as:
• AI
• Meme
• RWA (Real World Assets)
Only tracks that mainstream capital is paying attention to will have sentiment and volatility, thus having trading value.

2. Don’t go all in, at least have a layout of more than 10
Altcoins are highly volatile and carry extreme uncertainty.
Only trading one or two coins can easily lead to severe losses from a crash.
By spreading your layout (more than 10), you can use probability to counteract risks and improve overall winning rates.

3. True experts always focus on the core battlefield of BTC
All long-term, stable profit-making contract trading experts in the market ultimately return to BTC.
BTC has clearer trends, better liquidity, and stronger technical logic.
Therefore—
Altcoins are suitable for speculation, but BTC is the main battlefield.

This market is so damn hard to operate in. Just when I finally see a warming trend and want to go all in, I end up getting taken down again. Is there still a chance to break even? #代币发射平台竞争加剧

No matter whether you understand it or not, meme coins are always at the top of the daily increase list. Reality tells us the emotions are all in place, which meme coin hasn't had a pump? #meme #币安Alpha上新

Contract trading market, after paying attention to the ranking of signal providers, summarizes three types of profitable methods:
1. Large capital stable profit makers:
Mainly concentrated in mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, and SOL, with clear trends and controllable risks, making it the top choice for conservative capital.
2. Altcoin swing profit makers:
Represented by "Chuanyu Teacher's Strategy," aiming for swing profits by simultaneously going long/short on multiple altcoins, with high risks but significant profit fluctuations, suitable for aggressive traders.
3. A very small number of players who double their investment with individual altcoins:
This group is extremely small, usually relying on precise judgment, early positioning, and accurate emotional timing, making it difficult to replicate.
#moodeng #Pnut

Trading is not about seeking thrills, but about seeking certainty. If there are no opportunities you want, it might be a good idea to take a break this weekend. #山寨币交易

This market situation, may I ask how you plan to deal with it? #moodneg #PNUT🚀🚀🚀😍😍😍📈📈📈

ETH system, meme system, all lines are crazy, not giving any opportunity to board. #本周高光时刻

The most obvious sign of my growth is moving from frequent actions to only acting on certainty. #BTC重返10万

The widespread knockoff is now entering the 4-hour right-side trading phase, how do you respond?

Learning to miss is an important lesson in mature trading. #BTC突破99K

Organized the cryptocurrency trading logic of Teacher Chuanmu
The essence of trading cryptocurrency — using probability and combination management to achieve stable profits

⸻

1. Trading cryptocurrency is not about luck, but about playing with 'mathematical expectation'
• If you initially analyze and calculate that:
• Every 10 yuan invested can bring an average profit of 13 yuan
• Then the mathematical expectation (E) of this transaction = +3
• The problem is:
• Single transaction volatility is too large: you might earn more or lose everything
• So, it's hard to get close to that expected value of '13 yuan' in a single transaction

⸻

2. How to stabilize the approach to the expected value? — Rely on the 'Law of Large Numbers'
• According to the Law of Large Numbers: as the number of trials approaches infinity, the actual average will almost certainly converge to the expected value
• In other words:
• If you keep repeating trades, after a sufficient number of samples
• The actual results will infinitely approach your set mathematical expectation (13 yuan)

⸻

3. How to apply it practically? — Build a trading 'portfolio'
• Instead of betting heavily on one coin at once, it's better to construct a portfolio of trades
• For example:
• When shorting, select 10-20 small market cap coins that are turning bearish
• When going long, select 10-50 logically consistent rising coins
• Key points of portfolio trading:
• Total investment amount is consistent (still that 10 yuan)
• Each coin shares the position (for example, 10 coins, each 1 yuan)

⸻

4. What are the benefits?
• Risk is more diversified: no longer dragged down by the volatility of a single coin affecting the entire profit
• Profits are more stable: due to the stability of the portfolio average, it's easier to approach the expected value
• Execution is more rational: trading shifts from 'betting on direction' to 'running a probability model'

⸻

5. In summary:

The ultimate way to trade cryptocurrency is to use probability thinking + portfolio management to realize your mathematical expectation.

A trader with stable profits is not someone who makes money every day, but someone who can afford to lose, can wait, and can hold steady.