马里奥看Web3

作者：@Web3Mario（https://x.com/web3_mario）
 
摘要：在上一篇文章中，我们阐述了利用 AAVE 的 Pendle PT 杠杆收益策略的体现率风险，小伙伴们给出了很多正面反馈，在此感谢大家的支持。由于最近一段时间一直在研究 Pendle 生态的市场机会，所以本周希望继续分享一个对 Pendle 生态的观察，即 YT 杠杆积分策略的真实收益率与风险。总的来说，以 Ethena 为例，Pendle YT 杠杆积分策略目前的潜在回报率可以做到 393%，但仍需注意其中投资风险。
 
利用 YT 资产的杠杆属性，博弈 Point 的潜在收益率
 
首先需要先将这个收益策略简单介绍一下，事实上在 2024 年年初，随着 Eigenlayer 为代表的 LRT 项目纷纷选择用 point 机制决定后续 airdrop 奖励的分发，该策略就得到了市场的关注。用户可以利用购买 Pendle YT 增加资金杠杆，获取更多的 point，进而在奖励分发时，获取更大的奖励份额。
 
之所以购买 YT 资产有增加资金杠杆的效果，原因还是在于 Pendle 的机制。我们知道 Pendle 通过合成资产的方式，将生息型代币凭证转化为 Principal Token（PT）和 Yield Token（YT）。一个生息代币可以转换为一个 PT 和一个 YT，其中 PT 为零息债券，在到期日来临时，可以 1：1 兑换为原生资产。其固定利率是由当前 Pendle AMM 所创建的二级市场中，PT 相对于原生资产的折价比例，以及剩余的存续期共同决定。而 YT 则代表了被锁定的一个生息资产在存续期内累计收益的能力。持有一个 YT，就相当于拥有了一个原生资产在未来一段时间内的收益权。
 

 
由于持有 YT 只获得了收益权，而无赎回本金的能力（这部分是由 PT 承载的）。因此随着到期日的临近，YT 的剩余价值将越来越小，知道到期时价值归零，当然这不是意味着价值减损，只是一部分价值已经被兑现为奖励而分发给 YT 的持有者。也就是说当你持有一段时间 YT 后，你会发现两个现象：
 
1. 你持有的 YT 的价值越来越低；
2. 在 Pendle Dashboard 页面中，你出现了一部分 claimable rewards；
 

 

而 YT 的资金杠杆能力的产生，正是源自于此。由于只有收益权，因此 YT 的价格是远低于 1 个生息资产，因此购买 YT，意味着你可以利用少量的资金撬动更大的生息资产规模为你捕获收益。以上图 YT sUSDe Jul 25 为例，YT 的市价为 0.0161 USDe，这就意味着在不考虑交易滑点时，假设你的资本为 1USDe，你可以购买 62 个 YT，这就意味着在未来的 66 天内，你获得 62 个 USDe 的收益权，这正是资金杠杆的本质。
 

 
当然由于没有本金赎回的能力，这种策略只有在未来收益至少高于投资 YT 的本金时才可以成立，在此我们先做一个简单的计算，如上图所示，当前 sUSDe 的官方年利率为 7% 左右（资金费率分红），那么假设未来一段时间的费率水平保持不变，用户持有 66 天的利率约为 1.26% 左右。然而购买 YT 的资金杠杆却只有 62 倍，这岂不是意味着投资 YT，在到期时只能获得 62 * 1.26% 约 78% 的收益率，这基本上意味着投资 YT 没有额外收益，甚至还有部分亏损，而我们从图中可以看到，最近隐含利率和真实利率呈现收敛的趋势，然而在此之前大部分时间，利差还是较大的，这就意味着在那段时间内，YT 的价格可能会更低，这就意味着该策略处在亏损状态。这也是笔者在一年前没有选择在这个策略上下功夫的原因。
 
然而事实并非如此，因为我们在上述粗算时，忽略了另一个收益来源，那就是 Point，而事实上这才是 YT 持有者购买 YT 的核心目的和超额收益的来源。
 
如何量化 Point 的预计收益

在 Pendle 的 Point Market 页面，我们可以看到持有 YT 是可以获得一些项目的 point 奖励，以 sUSDe YT 为例，持有 1 个 YT，每日可以获得 30 个 Ethena 发行的 Sats 积分奖励。那么如何有效量化 Point 的预期收益，将决定了该策略的盈利能力。
 

 
若想了解如何正确计算潜在的 point 收益率，明确各项目的 point 分发机制是十分重要的。还是以 Ethena 为例，截止到目前，Ethena 一共进行了 3 轮积分活动，并且已经在 2025 年 3 月 25 日开启了第四季积分激励，并持续 6 个月时间，总计分配的 ENA 奖励不低于 3.5%。在 Ethena 中，为很多 USDe 的使用场景设计了不同的 sats point 激励速度，具体机制将按照参与场景的法币本位金额，以不同的“倍数”，按天分配积分。
 
那么我们为了计算投资 YT 赚取 point 的潜在收益率就需要涉及到以下几个关键参数：当前每日产生的 point 总量，已分发的 point，赛季结束后预计的 airdrop 比例，以及分发时 ENA 的价格。接下来我们来试算一下：
 
1. 首先我们可以利用 Ethena 官方的 API，获取当前赛季总发放的 point 数量，https://app.ethena.fi/api/airdrop/stats。截止目前总计分发了 10.1159 T 个 sats 积分，共计 2 个月的周期。
 
2. 接下来我们可以每隔 24 小时记录一下 point 总量的变化，并以此预估在未来剩余时间内，倘若保持相同的 point 释放速率，共计可能产生多少 point，在这里我们假设目前积分的释放速率每日保持不变，则意味着每日平均新增 168.6 B 个积分。
 
3. 根据自己的仓位，计算未来剩余时间内可能产生的 point 总量，假设我们持有价值 $10000 的 YT sUSDe 资产，意味着我们每日可以获得 10000 62 30，约为 18.6M 个积分。
 
4. 结合当前 ENA 价格 $0.359，并预估赛季结束后 ENA 总奖励为 3.5%。做如下计算：
 

 
也就是说，假设现在购买 YT 参与到积分争夺中，在未来一段时间内，假设各条件不变，你将会在 point 对应的空投奖励部分，获得额外 415.8% 的 APY 收益率的回报，共计 $13861 ENA 奖励。考虑在 sUSDe 费率分红中亏损的 -22% 比例，总 APY 可以来到 393%。当然通过质押 ENA，可以对该部分收益率起到 20%～100% 的 boost 提高，不过在这里我们并不展开介绍，感兴趣的小伙伴可以与笔者一起讨论。
 
如何降低收益率波动的风险

接下来我们来简单分析一下该策略的风险，首先如上所述，影响收益率的参数主要有五个，sUSDe 的分红收益率、YT sUSDe 的价格、ENA 的价格、项目方预计在该赛季分配的总奖励比例、日新增 point 的数量。我们可以用以下公示来表示各参数对总年化收益率的影响：
 

那么如何降低该策略的收益率波动风险呢？我们大致可以有三种对冲策略：
 
1. 在 ENA 价格较高时，通过做空 ENA 的方式，提前锁定预计收益分发时的 ENA 价格，避免 ENA 价格波动风险。当然要考虑到做空 ENA 的保证金，对于本金的占用，进而影响收益率的情况。
 
2. 在一些第三方的 Point OTC 交易所，例如 whales market 等，在 Point 应允价格较高时，提前兑现部分 point 的空投价值。
 
3. 针对 sUSDe 的费率分红收益率，则只能通过做空大类资产，例如 BTC、ETH 等，起到部分对冲的效果，因为我们知道 sUSDe 的资金费率通常在牛市时较高，因为在牛市来临时，多头投资者愿意付出更高的资金费率，而随着市场情绪的反转，目前暂时只能通过做空大类资产，间接起到对冲费率下降的风险。不过 Pendle 的 Boros 产品功能中，可以允许用户对冲费率风险，所以这个渠道也是值得关注的。
 
结语：本文主要以 sUSDe 为例，介绍了如何去衡量 YT 杠杆积分策略的收益与风险，针对其他标的，小伙伴们可以根据这个方法论自行研究，也欢迎大家与笔者探讨。

Author: @Web3_Mario
 
Summary: In recent days, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant correction. The market consultation is chaotic, and coupled with continuous large-scale hacker attacks in the cryptocurrency sector, it brings difficulties in understanding the recent market trends in the short term. In response, I have some opinions to share and discuss with everyone. I believe the main reasons for the current pullback in the cryptocurrency market are twofold: firstly, from a micro perspective, the consecutive hacker attacks have triggered concerns among traditional funds, increasing risk aversion; secondly, from a macro perspective, DeepSeek's open-source week has further punctured the AI bubble in the U.S., combined with the actual policy direction of the Trump administration, which has ignited market concerns about U.S. stagflation and initiated the revaluation of Chinese risk assets.

Author: @Web3_Mario

Summary: Recently, I have been looking for new project directions and came across a technology stack that I had not encountered before while doing product design, so I did some research and organized my learning insights to share with everyone. In general, zkTLS is a new technology that combines Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) and TLS (Transport Layer Security Protocol) and is mainly used in the Web3 field to verify the authenticity of off-chain HTTPS data provided, without trusting a third party, in an on-chain virtual machine environment. Here, authenticity includes three aspects: the data source indeed comes from a certain HTTPS resource, the returned data has not been tampered with, and the timeliness of the data can be guaranteed. Through this cryptographic implementation mechanism, on-chain smart contracts gain the ability to access off-chain Web2 HTTPS resources reliably, breaking data silos.

Author: @Web3_Mario

Abstract: This week, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a relatively large shock, and the price trend has also gone out of the M head pattern. All of these indicate that as Trump's official inauguration on January 20 is getting closer, the capital market has quietly begun to price in the opportunities and risks after his election, which means that the opening ceremony of the "Trump market" driven by emotions, which has lasted for 3 months, has officially ended. So what we need to do now is to extract the focus of the market's short-term game from a lot of messy information, so that it is conducive to making rational judgments on market changes. Therefore, in this article, the author still talks about his own observation logic from the perspective of a non-financial enthusiast, hoping to help everyone. In general, the author believes that the prices of many high-growth risky assets, including the crypto market, will continue to be suppressed in the short term. The reason is that the U.S. Treasury market has been adversely affected by the amplification of the term premium and the rise of medium and long-term interest rates. The reason for this situation is that the market is pricing the U.S. debt crisis.

Author: @Web3_Mario
Abstract: Thank you all for your support over the past year. I apologize that my year-end summary comes a bit late, as I was delayed by some matters. I have also thought for a long time about which angles to share my insights from this past year. In the end, I feel that sharing from the perspective of an ordinary Web3 entrepreneur still striving on the front lines will be more genuine. Overall, looking ahead to 2024 and 2025, I think it is appropriate to summarize in four sentences: from grassroots to universality, from chaos to order, from recession to bubble, and from conservatism to transformation. Next, I will share some representative events that I believe illustrate my thoughts and outlook.

Author: @Web3_Mario

Abstract: The cryptocurrency market experienced a large pullback last week, which was generally attributed to the so-called "hawkish rate cut" by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which triggered concerns in the risk market about inflation and economic recession. However, according to the author's analysis, this is probably only a secondary factor causing capital panic. The real impact lies in the strong pressure on Congress's short-term spending bill initiated by Trump and Musk last Wednesday, and even the uncertainty caused by threatening to cancel the debt ceiling rule, which triggered the risk aversion of funds.

Powell may be caught in the crossfire. Macro data is not enough to cause the market to panic about monetary policy risks.

Author: @Web3_Mario
Summary: First, I apologize for the delay in updates last week. After briefly studying AI agents like Clanker, I found it very interesting and spent some time developing some frame tools. After assessing the development and potential cold start costs, rapidly pursuing market hotspots seems to be the norm for most small and medium-sized entrepreneurs in the Web3 industry, and I hope everyone understands and continues to support. Back to the point, this week I hope to discuss a viewpoint I have been pondering lately. Of course, I think this can also explain the recent market volatility. After BTC's price broke the new high, how to continue capturing incremental value is key, and my view is that we need to observe whether BTC can take over from AI, becoming the core driving force for economic growth in the new political and economic cycle under Trump's administration. This game has already unfolded alongside MicroStrategy's wealth effect, but the entire process will inevitably face numerous challenges.

Author: @Web3_Mario

Summary: This week I discovered an interesting project called Clanker, which allows a Farcaster user to automatically create a custom MEME coin on Base through text interaction with this account, while simultaneously creating an initial trading pool on Uniswap V3. Therefore, I spent some time carefully looking at the technical details of Clanker and have some insights to share with everyone.

What is Clanker?
First, let me briefly introduce what Clanker is. Clanker is an autonomous agent based on the Base blockchain, with its core function being to help users deploy ERC-20 standard tokens. Users only need to tag @clanker on the social platform Farcaster and provide relevant token information (such as name, code, and image), and Clanker will complete the token creation, liquidity pool setup, and liquidity locking. The entire process does not require users to possess complex technical knowledge.

Author: @Web3_Mario

Summary: Last week we discussed the potential benefits that Lido gains from changes in the regulatory environment and hoped to help everyone seize this Buy the Rumor trading opportunity. This week, a very interesting topic is the heat around MicroStrategy. Many predecessors have commented on this company's operational model. After digesting and researching it deeply, I have some personal views to share with you. I believe the reason for the rise in MicroStrategy's stock price lies in the 'Davis Double Play'. Through the business design of financing for purchasing BTC, it binds the appreciation of BTC to company profits and gains financial leverage through innovative designs that combine traditional financial market financing channels, enabling the company to achieve profit growth beyond that brought by the appreciation of its BTC holdings. Meanwhile, as its holdings increase, the company gains a certain pricing power over BTC, further reinforcing this profit growth expectation. However, its risk lies in this: when the BTC market experiences oscillation or reversal risks, profit growth tied to BTC will stagnate, and under the pressure of the company's operating expenses and debt, MicroStrategy's financing ability will be significantly diminished, which will affect profit growth expectations. Unless new support can further elevate BTC prices, the positive premium of MSTR relative to BTC holdings will quickly converge. This process is known as the 'Davis Double Kill.'

Author: @Web3Mario
 
Abstract: We know there is a saying, "Buy the rumor, sell the news". Before the October election, the article (DOGE's New Value Cycle: Political Traffic Potential and Musk's "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E) Political Career) published by the author has received good responses and expected results, and the author has also harvested a relatively rich return on investment. I would like to thank everyone for their encouragement and support. I personally think that there will be a lot of similar trading opportunities in this window period before Trump officially takes over, so the author decided to start a series of articles, (Buy the rumor series), to explore and analyze the hot spots that are currently being hyped in the market and refine some trading opportunities.

Author: @Web3Mario
 
Abstract: The US election has come to an end, and Trump has swept the United States with a crushing momentum and made a strong comeback. In my previous article, I have fully discussed the political and economic plans of both parties and the impact on the future cryptocurrency market, and there are many articles describing related views, so I will not repeat them. During this period, in addition to paying attention to the dynamics of the election, I also felt and observed a relatively subtle phenomenon. I found some experience very interesting, so I summarized it and shared it with you. In general, in this US election, the "media war" between the two parties will greatly weaken the credibility of the mainstream media and X social media, while Web3 social media platforms may usher in new development opportunities. On the one hand, Democratic followers need to cultivate new and self-controllable propaganda channels, which brings convenience to related competing products in terms of financing channels; on the other hand, under Musk's rule, X will become increasingly dictatorial, and this "Dark MAGA" will inevitably favor conservatism on many cultural issues, such as abortion, immigration, LGBTQ multiculturalism, etc. The dictator's preference will greatly affect the logic of the recommendation algorithm in X, so the trend of user loss on the opposite side of it is inevitable, and X's self-defeating martial arts will be conducive to related competing products reshaping more competitive product differentiation, thereby reducing promotion difficulty.

Author: @Web3Mario

Summary: In the coming week, there is no doubt that global attention will focus on the U.S. election. Therefore, I took some time to carefully outline the upcoming time nodes and core points of interest and to look forward to the subsequent impact. Overall, starting from Tuesday, November 5, the results of the election will be announced in succession over the following week. During this time, the progress of results announcements will continue to affect asset prices.

Due to the different election policies across states, the results of the U.S. election will be announced over about a week.

While chatting with friends, I found that everyone is not very clear about the time rhythm for the coming week. People think that results will come out on the evening of November 5 (early morning of the 6th Beijing time). In fact, due to different policies in each state regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots, there is variability in the announcement of results. So first, I want to talk about the timeline of the U.S. presidential election. Starting from the overall election rhythm, the rhythm for the upcoming period is as follows:

Author: @Web3Mario

Summary: This weekend, social networks have been quite lively, with a new round of debates about ETH starting. I believe the causes are twofold. Firstly, the interview between Vitalik and ETHPanda sparked widespread discussion in the Chinese community. Secondly, compared to SOL, ETH's continued decline against BTC has also triggered widespread dissatisfaction. Regarding this issue, I have some opinions to share with everyone. In general, I believe the long-term trend of ETH is sound because there are actually no direct competitors in the market. In the narrative of Ethereum, the key aspect of the positioning of 'decentralized execution environment' is 'decentralization' rather than 'execution environment,' and this fundamental situation has not changed. The core reasons leading to the current bottleneck in ETH's development are twofold. Firstly, the ReStaking track has caused a vampire attack on the mainstream technological development path of Layer2, siphoning off a large amount of resources from the ETH ecosystem. Secondly, the core mechanism of ReStaking does not create incremental demand for ETH, directly resulting in the application side being unable to obtain sufficient development resources and user attention, leading to stagnation in promotion and user education. Secondly, key opinion leaders in the Ethereum ecosystem are becoming aristocratic, forming an interest class, which causes class mobility to solidify, and the developer ecosystem lacks sufficient incentives, making innovation appear weak.

Author: @Web3Mario
 
Abstract: Recently, the MEME ecosystem is very hot, so the author continues to pay attention to and study related knowledge. Last week, many MEMEs have achieved several times or even dozens of times of growth, but most of the stories I saw and heard were still large losses. Therefore, before the narration, I still hope that everyone will remain rational when participating, and must do a good job of risk control, strictly implement trading strategies, and must not be overwhelmed by survivor bias. Back to the topic, when studying the MEME track, the author started with DOGE, the leader of such projects, and found that DOGE is experiencing some interesting things recently. I have some experience and hope to share it with you. In general, affected by the increased possibility of Musk's political career, DOGE is absorbing new traffic potential-political traffic. Therefore, the results of the upcoming election may bring DOGE a new value cycle.

Author: @Web3Mario

Abstract: It's been a long time since we last met. I've taken a break to relax my body and mind. I'll continue to learn and share. The Chinese stock market has been the focus of recent market trends. The crypto world has not met expectations before the rate cut and seems a bit quiet. However, there is one event that caught my attention. It's a classic MEME on Solana, Slerf, which is a sloth-like image. It is currently undergoing a CTO (Community Take Over) competition initiated by a Slerf community opinion leader in the Chinese area. As a result, the price of Slerf has also doubled rapidly in 5 days. Since I have not had enough understanding and thinking about MEME before, I think this event is a good opportunity to learn. After studying for a while, I have some experience and hope to share and discuss with you.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)

Abstract: There were a lot of big things last week. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 BP relatively aggressively, and the Bank of Japan stayed on hold. This basically indicates that at least there will be no excessively negative information in the next few weeks. There are already relevant analysis articles There are quite a few, so I won’t go into details here. In this process, as long as everyone pays attention to two logics, it will be relatively easy to grasp the risks. The first is whether the job market will recover as scheduled, and the second is the risk of rekindling inflation. In addition, there is a news that attracted the author's attention, that is, Nirvana Finance, a stable project on Solana, announced the restart of V2. This project was suspended after being hacked for more than 3.5 million US dollars in July 2022. I remember that there was It is known that the hackers who attacked the project were convicted, and the recent restart means that the relevant judicial agencies should have completed the transfer of the stolen funds, which means that the entire incident should be defined as the first smart contract-related incident in the United States. The case of being convicted of an attack is landmark for the maritime law system. From now on, the handling process of similar cases should be significantly improved. Therefore, I spent some time over the weekend to sort out the whole story of this case in detail and share it with you.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)

Abstract: First of all, I wish you all a happy Mid-Autumn Festival. During the holiday, I found an interesting topic and studied World Liberty Financial, which has been very popular in the past two days. This DeFi project, in which members of the Trump family are deeply involved, made more detailed promises in the Twitter space on September 17, including the distribution of WLFI tokens and the vision of the project. Trump spent a long time talking about his optimistic attitude towards the crypto field in the meeting. So for such a project that does not seem to be so "Web3 style", how should we grasp its value? I have done some research on this point and have some experience to share with you. In general, I think the core value of World Liberty Financial lies in finding new fundraising channels to alleviate Trump's disadvantage in raising funds for the 2024 campaign. Then the essence of investing in WLFI tokens is a bet on Trump's election and a political donation.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)

Summary: I read an exclusive interview between Bankless and Multicoin "Why is ETH Down so bad?" last Sunday. I thought it was very exciting and profound. I recommend everyone to read it. Ryan fully demonstrated the difference between Web3 pragmatism and fundamentalism in the interview, but I have discussed this in detail in my previous article. In addition, the views in it also aroused a lot of excitement and thinking in me. Indeed, in the recent period, Ethereum has begun to suffer a certain degree of FUD. The direct reason I think is because the passage of the ETH ETF failed to trigger and A similar trend occurred when the BTC ETF was passed, which caused some people to rethink the vision and development direction of Ethereum. I also have some thoughts on these issues, which I hope to share with you. In general, I agree with Ethereum as a social experiment, hoping to create a decentralized, deauthorized and even trustless "cyber immigration country" vision, as well as its L2 expansion direction based on Rollup. The real problems Ethereum faces are two. One is that the competition between Restaking for the L2 expansion plan dilutes the resources for ecological development and reduces the value capture ability of ETH. The second is that the key opinion leaders of the Ethereum system are becoming aristocratic. Because they cherish their feathers, they lack enthusiasm for ecological construction.

Author: Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)

Abstract: On August 23, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell officially announced at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that "Now is the time for policy adjustment. The direction of progress is clear, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on upcoming data, changing prospects, and the balance of risks." This also means that the Fed's tightening cycle, which has lasted for nearly three years, has ushered in a turning point. If the macro data is not unexpected, the first interest rate cut will be ushered in at the interest rate meeting on September 19. However, entering the early stage of the interest rate cut cycle does not mean that the surge is coming immediately. There are still some risks that deserve everyone's vigilance. Therefore, the author summarizes some of the most important issues that need to be paid attention to here, hoping to help everyone avoid some risks. In general, in the early stage of interest rate cuts, we also need to pay attention to six core issues, including the risk of recession in the United States, the rhythm of interest rate cuts, the Fed's QT (quantitative tightening) plan, the risk of renewed inflation, the efficiency of global central bank linkage, and the political risks in the United States.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)

Abstract: This week, the market officially entered the cool-off period before the Jackson Hole meeting. Everyone is waiting for Powell to make an official interpretation of the latest employment and inflation data and give clear guidance on future monetary policy, which will undoubtedly become a key reference for the September interest rate decision. However, there was a very interesting piece of information last Friday that did not attract much attention in the crypto world. That is, Democratic presidential candidate Harris officially announced his first clear economic policy framework, the "Opportunity Economy" framework. Because I was sorting out the analysis article on Usual Money last Friday, I did not notice it. I carefully studied the relevant details over the weekend and found some interesting insights. I hope to share them with you. In general, Harris's "Opportunity Economy" framework is an extreme left economic plan, which specifically refers to reducing the cost of living of the American people in four aspects, including housing, medical care, food and daily necessities, and childcare, through the power of government policies. If this plan is implemented, it is likely to push the cryptocurrency market back to the 2021 trend, but it will be accompanied by the resurgence of inflation in the United States.