Author: @Web3Mario
Summary: In the coming week, there is no doubt that global attention will focus on the U.S. election. Therefore, I took some time to carefully outline the upcoming time nodes and core points of interest and to look forward to the subsequent impact. Overall, starting from Tuesday, November 5, the results of the election will be announced in succession over the following week. During this time, the progress of results announcements will continue to affect asset prices.
Due to the different election policies across states, the results of the U.S. election will be announced over about a week.
While chatting with friends, I found that everyone is not very clear about the time rhythm for the coming week. People think that results will come out on the evening of November 5 (early morning of the 6th Beijing time). In fact, due to different policies in each state regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots, there is variability in the announcement of results. So first, I want to talk about the timeline of the U.S. presidential election. Starting from the overall election rhythm, the rhythm for the upcoming period is as follows:
1. Election Day: The presidential election day in the United States is typically set for the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. Voters will cast their votes for the presidential and vice presidential candidates on this day. This is an indirect election, as voters are actually voting for the members of the Electoral College from their state.
2. Electoral College Voting: The United States adopts an Electoral College system. The number of electoral votes for each state is determined by the number of congressional members from that state (number of House members + number of Senators), totaling 538 electoral votes. Most states use the 'winner-takes-all' rule, meaning that winning a majority of votes in a state grants all of that state's electoral votes (Maine and Nebraska are exceptions). A presidential candidate needs to obtain at least 270 electoral votes to win.
3. Electoral College Official Voting: The members of the Electoral College will vote on the second Monday of December to officially elect the President and Vice President. The voting results will be sealed and submitted to Congress for certification.
4. Congressional Certification: In early January of the following year, the new Congress will hold a meeting on January 6 to formally tally the Electoral College votes. If there are no objections, the election results for President and Vice President will be confirmed.
5. Presidential Inauguration: The elected President and Vice President will take their oaths of office on January 20, officially becoming the new President and Vice President, beginning a four-year term.
So on the upcoming Tuesday, which is November 5 in U.S. time, most swing states will start voting from 6 a.m. until 7 to 9 p.m. After voting ends, the counting process will begin immediately; however, due to varying state policies, the timing of results announcements will differ. Here’s a summary of the results announcement situation for some key states, where results are often announced later:
1. California: California allows a longer period for mail-in ballots to be received. As long as mail-in ballots are sent on election day and arrive within the specified date, they will be counted towards the total vote count. Due to the large population of the state and the extended time allowed for counting, it is often one of the last states to announce complete results in the nation.
2. Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania typically only begins processing mail-in ballots on election day, which slows down the counting process, especially in years with high numbers of mail-in ballots. As a key swing state, often referred to as a 'battleground state,' Pennsylvania's vote counts are usually highly scrutinized, but the counting process is relatively late to complete. Therefore, the final results are often announced several days after election day.
3. Michigan and Wisconsin: These two states also only process mail-in ballots on election day, and as swing states, close vote margins can lead to longer counting times to ensure accuracy, usually completing ballot processing by the evening of the following day.
4. Nevada: Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after election day, so results may be delayed for a few days, especially in election years with a high number of ballots.
5. North Carolina: North Carolina allows mail-in ballots to be received up to nine days after election day, as long as the ballots are postmarked on or before election day. This often delays the announcement of the final results for the state. Typically, results will be announced about a week later.
You may notice that aside from California, which is a stronghold for the Democratic Party, most are swing states, with Pennsylvania being a critical battleground state. Therefore, the entire election-related game will indeed reach its climax a few days after the popular vote concludes.
House elections are also very important as they determine the implementation of future fiscal policies in the U.S.
Besides the presidential election, the results of the U.S. House of Representatives election are also important. We know that in the U.S. federal government, the President, the Senate, and the House of Representatives together form the core structure of the separation of powers. The President holds executive power, while the Senate and the House of Representatives (collectively called Congress) share legislative power. These three entities are both independent and closely related to achieve checks and balances and oversight. The House of Representatives is the lower house of Congress and has the following main powers:
l Legislation: The House of Representatives drafts and votes on bills, completing legislative functions together with the Senate.
l Financial Authority: The U.S. Constitution stipulates that all financial and tax legislation must be introduced by the House of Representatives first, ensuring taxpayers have direct representation.
l Impeachment Power: The House of Representatives has the power to propose impeachment against the President or federal officials, but the trial power belongs to the Senate.
Thus, it can be said that the distribution of the House of Representatives determines the difficulty the President faces in implementing his economic policies. Presidents whose party does not hold a majority are typically referred to as 'minority presidents,' facing significant challenges in pushing through legislation. The House of Representatives elections are held every two years, and in election years, House elections and presidential elections are usually held on the same day, typically on the first Tuesday of November in even-numbered years. On this day, voters will cast their votes for the President and all 435 House seats. Therefore, generally, the results of the two elections will be announced progressively within a similar timeframe, although the specific order may vary. However, usually, since House districts are smaller, the counting of votes tends to be faster, so results are often available earlier.
Looking ahead to the subsequent impact of the election results
In previous articles, we have analyzed the economic policies of both parties. Here’s a brief review: the Democratic Party under Harris mainly focuses on 'opportunity economics' as its core economic framework, summarizing that it aims to increase government investment and raise taxes to improve middle-class family incomes in areas such as housing, healthcare, education, and daily necessities. The market generally expects that Harris's economic policies will further increase the fiscal burden on the government, further undermine the dollar's credibility, while the wealth effects brought on by monetary easing will help drive up inflation. However, because of the government’s forced intervention in controlling the prices of daily necessities, I believe inflation will be in a gradually accelerating upward trend.
Trump's economic approach can be summarized in three dimensions: first, low domestic tax rates and high tariffs on foreign goods; second, lowering the exchange rate of the dollar against major manufacturing countries through methods like interest rate cuts; and finally, opposing the new energy industry while advocating for traditional energy sectors. This policy is closely related to the interest groups behind it—the blue-collar class in the Rust Belt. Although isolationist and trade protection policies have effectively targeted foreign products and revitalized U.S. low-end manufacturing, the implementation of these policies requires time and is accompanied by high inflationary pressures. Even Trump must consider how to leverage the dollar's hegemonic status to alleviate these issues. There are signs he might choose to achieve this through Bitcoin, as he has repeatedly expressed concern for the 'U.S. Bitcoin production capacity.' He advocates ensuring that the remaining Bitcoin will be produced in the U.S. Considering his support for traditional energy industries like oil, stimulating Bitcoin mining—a resource-intensive industry—would help increase oil demand and add value to the industry. Moreover, Trump’s view on Bitcoin has notably changed during this term, shifting from initially not recognizing its value to acknowledging its value as a commodity. This shift is still related to the dollar's pricing power advantage. Since the liquidity of Bitcoin currently relies mainly on stablecoins pegged to the dollar, the dollar effectively holds the pricing power of Bitcoin. By recognizing Bitcoin as a commodity and globally promoting this consensus, dollar capital can establish an advantage in this area to reap benefits.
Therefore, in summary, I believe that if Harris is elected, the 'Trump trade' will quickly collapse, and the price of BTC will rapidly retract, but it will subsequently re-enter a phase of oscillating upward. Other altcoin assets of the security token type will experience a bull market influenced by wealth effects, resembling the broad market surge after the pandemic's monetary easing in 2021. If Trump is elected, the price of BTC will also see a 'sell the truth' phenomenon with some profit-locking operations in the short term. However, in the subsequent cycle, the price of BTC will quickly enter an upward channel, while the altcoin market will not easily see a comprehensive bull market, more likely reflecting the wealth effects brought by BTC appreciation, with funds rotating between multiple hot sectors, resembling market trends after the end of 2023.
Of course, if the elected party becomes a 'minority president,' the situation will become more complex, and we will need to continue monitoring the two parties' game over economic policies. Any proposed bill will go through intense market games, and at that time, price volatility will significantly increase.
