洪虔论币

The price of Bitcoin has fallen below 60,000 again. A few days ago, it stood above the 200-day moving average, but it did not hold on, and it fell back in the last two days. From the Gubbi moving average, we can see that the short-term moving average group has begun to shrink and overlap with the long-term moving average group. After breaking through the long-term moving average group, it returned to it, and the two moving average groups overlapped again. The long-term moving average group also showed a state of contraction, which indicates that the trend may reverse. But this is not necessarily a downward trend, and we may still have a reversal. However, it is clear that whether it is the short-term group, the long-term group, or the price, they have all fallen below the 200-day moving average. Therefore, from our previous fixed investment logic, it is still possible to continue to invest. In addition, the Planet Daily summarized a very interesting rule, that is, the "September Curse". Through statistical analysis of data over the years, they found that most of the time, there will be a decline in September. This is not only in Bitcoin or the currency circle, but also in the US stock market, which is called the "September Curse". What is the cause of this "September Curse"? It is currently unknown. Of course, the presidential election happens every four years this month, but even if it is not a presidential election year, this situation will also occur in September. Therefore, the real reason behind this remains a mystery. In short, if the "September curse" comes true, September will usher in a continuous decline, just in time for the expected rate cut. In this case, there may be the last drop, and after that, Bitcoin may usher in a big reversal in the fourth quarter. There are two more important news today. The first is that the Ton blockchain is paralyzed, and the second is that MakerDAO (slip of the tongue) has changed its name. First, let's talk about Ton. For Ton, it can be said that it is raining on a leaking roof, and the ship is docked and encounters headwinds, which is simply adding insult to injury. A few days ago, the founder of Telegram was arrested, and today the Ton blockchain is down again, just like Solana. Many people say that Solana and Ton are the "killers" of Ethereum and its competitors. But are the weapons of these two "killers" downtime and downtime? Although Ton recovered a few hours later, it took several hours from stopping block production to resuming block production.Although it has been restored, Ton also released the relevant reasons, saying that some nodes failed to update old data due to data congestion, resulting in failure to form a consensus and needing to restart. Although there are many technical terms that we don't understand, the general reason is that it is too congested, which leads to this situation. However, it is incredible that a blockchain can actually shut down. Including Solana, it is the same situation. It is called the "computer room chain". Is Ton also a "computer room chain"? It's incredible. As a blockchain, it can actually shut down. Think about it, so many huge ecosystems on it stop working because of downtime. If it is placed in some DeFi projects with large amounts of money, the loss it incurs is incredible. This is why some large DeFi projects, such as RWA, still choose to be carried out on Ethereum, because they pursue stability, especially the situation of downtime and stop working. If someone wants to redeem or trade at this time, it cannot be done. Therefore, Ethereum's real competitor has not yet appeared. Solana and Ton may have certain advantages in applications and attracting users, but their stability is questionable. The third news is that MakerDAO changed its name to Sky. This is too incredible. It is generally believed that they are two unrelated words. It was originally MakerDAO, but now it has changed its name to Sky. You can talk about its stablecoin. Changing DAI to USDS is understandable, because USDS is easily associated with stablecoins, and the original DAI may make people feel strange and difficult to think of as a stablecoin. This name change is understandable. But changing the original MKR coin to Sky has nothing to do with its price, but they still did it. In addition, many projects have also changed, including the merger of three large AI tokens some time ago, and Fantom seems to have changed its name. So why do they do this? I think this is a helpless move by the project party in the bear market. They hope to attract attention by reshaping the brand. Since there is no other substantial innovation, such as technological or ecological innovation, the last resort is to change the name. Changing the name can reshape the brand, and it can also create a topic of hype. Through the name change, marketing can make everyone pay attention to MakerDAO again.I think this is a last resort marketing method to attract traffic in this way. It may be the last struggle, which also shows that the current market is very bearish. The project party can only attract attention by changing the name. Of course, after the name change, they may reshape the brand, and then launch various innovations and reforms to come up with new ways of playing. It is meaningless to change the name without making other improvements. These are the two more important things today. In any case, even if it continues to decline now, I think it is the last moment. Especially after the expectation of interest rate cuts is implemented, there will definitely be the last drop, which everyone needs to be careful and guard against. Therefore, for the time being, you can not wait for the last drop with a full position. Of course, there is no problem with a full position, because we would rather be locked than miss it. This is our consistent principle. Now everyone will hold on for a while, and at most through September, the fourth quarter will definitely usher in a bull market.