V0r06eY

Closed at +
But we will continue to fall )

Previously warned

📉 WIF — has entered the zone we warned about

As expected, the price reached the level of 0.80, which was previously marked as a key support zone.

🧠 What is important now:
– We are in the expected bounce zone, but selling pressure remains.
– If the zone 0.78–0.80 does not hold — we may go deeper, down to the next support at 0.72–0.74.

📌 Previously warned:
– Divergence on RSI
– Exit from the channel
– Loss of momentum on volumes

🎯 Now everything depends on the buyers' reaction.
Weak bounce — a signal for further sell-off.
Strong buyback — a chance for a retest of the trend from above.
Don't say I didn't warn you )

For skeptics, check yesterday's post ))

$WIF

🐶 The meme sector is shaking, but it lives: which of the memes is still breathing?

📉 WIF broke the trend line — and now it's holding on to its word and RSI. (Previously stated: waiting for 0.85 / 0.80 — so far the scenario is valid.)
📊 PEPE is stable, but volumes are decreasing — as if the market itself is holding its breath waiting for a signal from BTC.
🚀 FLOKI is hinting at growth again — but so far without confirmation on volumes.

🧠 My perspective:
– By the end of the week, meme coins may give a final impulse on news.
– Without movement from BTC — all of this is just a heated crowd on thin ice.

📌 Levels to watch:
$WIF — 0.85 / 0.80
$PEPE — the area 0.000012 is important
$FLOKI — a reset is possible at 0.00020

📉 WIF – missed the wave, but it's about to hit

WIF jumped like a dolphin at a show — beautifully, sharply, but it's already clear: there wasn't enough strength. Instead of continuing to rise — exiting the channel down, decreasing volume, and a developing divergence on the RSI.

🧠 What I see:
– Divergence on the RSI: the price is making higher peaks, the indicator — lower. A classic before a correction.
– Exit from the ascending channel — like leaving the stage without applause.
– Rebound from the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci zone — the market is clearly looking at a reversal.

📍 Expected levels:
0.85 — first stop.
0.80 — if selling pressure increases.

🧪 Currently, WIF is in a flat phase under the trend. If it doesn't break upwards — the chances of a downward impulse increase. For now, it looks like a lull before the deflation.

$WIF
$BTC

Why aren't you earning, even when everything is right?

A very common question among beginners: "Why am I doing everything right but still in the red?"
Answer: because trading is not a deterministic system. It's not a story like "press the button — get the result."

It's a probabilistic game — everything is built on probabilities.
You can enter according to the system, with confirmation, with a stop, with a take — and still catch a loss. Not because you're a fool. But because that's how the distribution of probabilities works.

Each individual trade is like a roll of the dice. Yes, you may have a strategy that gives a +60% win rate over the long run. But that doesn't mean you can't lose 5 times in a row. It's just noise. It's just math.

That's why the key elements of any professional approach are:

— Risk management. One loss shouldn't wipe out the entire account.
— Long horizon. Only it allows you to achieve a statistically significant distribution.
— Understanding of expectations. The point is not to guess every trade. The point is to be right over the long run.

If you think you are "doing everything right" and are still in the red — reconsider not the system, but the expectations.
$ETH
$SOL
$XRP

🏦 Fed and the Frozen Dumpling Effect
The market is heating up, but the rate is not

🧊 Jerome Powell has spoken again — and again, nothing has changed. The rate is still on ice, inflation remains above target, and the market is already half-celebrating victory.

🔥 S&P and Nasdaq are rising, crypto is coming back to life. But the Fed seems to have its finger on pause:
— ➕ strong labor market
— ➕ consumers are holding steady
— ➖ inflation is not backing down

⚖️ Why is Powell holding back? Because he fears 2022 2.0 — if you let go too soon, everything will heat up again. But to squeeze too tight is scary.

📉 For crypto, this is a time of waiting. Fed's pause = chance for altcoins. But until there is a clear signal — all the heat may remain just in the bulls' thoughts.

🗣 Watch for CPI and Fed statements — the turnaround will begin not with the charts, but with the words.

$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

Robert Kiyosaki declared summer as a time of collapse and flight to safe assets.

He is convinced that investors will begin to get rid of "paper assets" in favor of BTC, gold, and silver.
In his opinion, silver is an undervalued find that could triple in value.

What do you think?

$BTC

$ETH
$XRP

Five lessons from 'The Art of War' for a trader, if Sun Tzu wrote about the markets:

1. There is a time to trade and a time to just watch. Those who cannot distinguish one from the other lose money instead of making it.
2. A true trader is like a scout. He must be able to act in any conditions: up, down, sideways, or complete chaos.
3. Emotions are the main enemy. In the euphoria after profit, deposits are burned. In depression after a loss, discipline breaks down.
4. The trader's job is not to jump after candles but to sit and wait for his signal. Like a hunter in ambush.
5. Those who can blindly follow their system, without arguing with it, without showing off, and without succumbing to their ego — they are the ones who take the prize.

No magic. Only discipline, patience, and respect for the market. Everything else is noise.

$WIF
$ETH
$BTC

📊 Ether at a crossroads: a shot up or a false flag?

ETH is once again reaching for 3900, like a tourist at a buffet — everything seems delicious, but something is holding it back. After a recent impulse, the market has frozen: the candles are smaller, the volumes are lower, and traders are squinting at the charts in search of a “bull flag.”

But a flag without wind is just a rag.

📉 What’s not to like:
– Volumes are falling. A breakout without volume is like a joke without laughter.
– Open interest in futures is not growing — which means no money has been brought into the attack.
– Liquidity is weakening: the order book is thin, like the patience of spot holders.

📈 What supports:
– ETF euphoria is still holding the temperature.
– The stock market is stable for now, VIX is not alarming.
– On the daily chart, ETH is still in the structure of “higher lows.”

🧠 My view:
Until a clear breakout at 3950–4000 with volume — this is not a rally, but a warm-up.
A pullback to 3600–3700 could be a useful “shoulder cleaner” before a new impulse.
If they break through 4000 with body and volume — we’ll see 4300–4500 faster than the SEC can say “disclaimer.”

⸻

🔚 Conclusion:
Ether right now is not a rocket, but a drone on reconnaissance. We observe, do not rush.
In such moments, there’s no need to guess — we need to wait for confirmations.
$ETH $WIF $XRP

📉 Will there be a drop?

Yes, a pullback of 7–10% is possible for the S&P 500, especially if the market overheats even further by mid-June. A similar situation occurred in the summer of 2023 — the correction came after players realized: there will be no soft landing, and the Fed won't save us.

Crypto may repeat this pattern. Ethereum and Bitcoin look confident now, but the lack of strong volume makes them vulnerable. As soon as the stock market wobbles — altcoins may be the first to go negative.

🚀 What about a rally?

Here’s what’s interesting: the autumn thaw is still in play. If we see a healthy correction this summer (not panic, but a proper “unloading”) — it could serve as a launching pad for strong upward movement in the second half of 2025.

The conditions remain the same:
• stabilization of inflation (closer to 2.5%),
• Fed statements on readiness to lower rates (likely in August-September),
• inflow of liquidity from Europe and China (against the backdrop of local easing).

🧭 What should traders do?
• Don’t fall in love with the market — prepare for long-term buys on the pullback.
• Keep an eye on macro data: CPI, labor market, PMI.
• Don’t ignore geopolitics — July elections in Britain, the pre-election period in the USA, trade maneuvers from China.
$XRP $WIF $ADA

Summer is starting: should we expect a crash before the rally, or is everything already priced in?

The U.S. stock market enters summer with a slight overheating and heavy baggage. Indices are at their peaks, crypto is fluctuating, and investors are like tourists at a station: tickets seem to be available, but it’s unclear where to go. Fall? Rise? Wait for the Fed to figure it out? The ghosts of summer 2023 are still fresh — that’s when a significant correction in June was a prelude to the autumn rally. Will the scenario repeat?

🔻 Where is the safety net?

Right now, the market is walking on thin ice. A mild recession looms on the horizon, but it is in no hurry to arrive. Jobs are still strong, inflation is stubborn. And most importantly — the Fed is once again switching to ‘don’t touch — it will get worse’ mode. Predictions for rate cuts have been pushed back to closer to November. This means a pause in summer.

Such uncertainty often becomes a convenient reason for a pullback. Especially if the following appear on the horizon:
• bad corporate reports (second quarter profits are weakening),
• another tweet or tariff from Trump,
• anew Chinese “we won’t buy your bonds.”

labor market, PMI.
• Don’t ignore geopolitics — July elections in Britain, elections in the U.S., trade maneuvers from China.
$XRP $WIF $ADA

The Fed is in wait-and-see mode — and this is not just a "pause", but a forced strategic waiting tactic. The minutes from the last meeting clearly show: economic uncertainty has increased to such an extent that even the hawks on the committee agreed — better not to rush.

The main headache is tariffs. After Trump's escapades on the foreign policy front and yet another friction with China, the Fed found itself caught in a crossfire: on one side — inflation, on the other — the risk of rising unemployment. Moreover, both can very well happen simultaneously. A double whammy.

The Fed is currently acting with utmost caution: the rate remains in the range of 4.25–4.5% for the third time in a row. The scenario: “better to wait until all this trade mess clears up a bit.” The political swings from Washington are making it too difficult to see where the economy is really headed.

Even despite the temporary easing of tariffs between the US and China, business is still slowing down: investments are on hold, hiring is too. The Fed sees this and lowers its forecasts for 2025–2026. Moreover, in their internal model, the probability of recession has almost equaled the baseline scenario. This is no longer a warning bell — this is a siren
$BTC

The Pareto distribution is when 20% of efforts yield 80% of results. But in trading, this rule turns into something much stricter: 1% of trades accounts for 99% of profit, while the rest is noise, losses, and commissions.

Most people do not understand that the market is not a linear environment. The logic of "working hard equals earning more" does not apply here. The signal is what matters. And it happens rarely.

What does this mean in practice?

— You can sit for weeks catching garbage.
— And then one trade comes in that makes your entire month, sometimes even a quarter.
— The main thing is not to blow your account during the waiting period.

That’s why discipline and risk management are more important than any "indicator settings" or "super signals." Because you never know which trade will be the one from that 1%. And if you are not in the market at that moment — the profit will pass you by.

📌 Many beginners burn out precisely because they expect uniform income. Like "a daily salary from the chart." But the market is not an office. It’s chaos with rare pockets of logic. And when you learn to weather the calm and not panic in losses — that’s when you have a chance to hit that 1%.
$BTC $XRP $ETH