📉 Will there be a drop?
Yes, a pullback of 7–10% is possible for the S&P 500, especially if the market overheats even further by mid-June. A similar situation occurred in the summer of 2023 — the correction came after players realized: there will be no soft landing, and the Fed won't save us.
Crypto may repeat this pattern. Ethereum and Bitcoin look confident now, but the lack of strong volume makes them vulnerable. As soon as the stock market wobbles — altcoins may be the first to go negative.
🚀 What about a rally?
Here’s what’s interesting: the autumn thaw is still in play. If we see a healthy correction this summer (not panic, but a proper “unloading”) — it could serve as a launching pad for strong upward movement in the second half of 2025.
The conditions remain the same:
• stabilization of inflation (closer to 2.5%),
• Fed statements on readiness to lower rates (likely in August-September),
• inflow of liquidity from Europe and China (against the backdrop of local easing).
🧭 What should traders do?
• Don’t fall in love with the market — prepare for long-term buys on the pullback.
• Keep an eye on macro data: CPI, labor market, PMI.
• Don’t ignore geopolitics — July elections in Britain, the pre-election period in the USA, trade maneuvers from China.
