Umperium
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Smartmoney @Umperium
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Mining tokens from a smartphone – part 5
Once a week, I review for you current opportunities on how to get free tokens using only a smartphone.
Let me remind you that some people call this mining, others token farming, but, in fact, this is just one type of activity. Don't worry, no computational processes take place on the smartphone, as in real mining.
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Are altcoins preparing for growth?
The stock market lost $1.5 trillion yesterday, while BTC, on the contrary, gained and is back above $90,000, outperforming stocks and acting as a hedge against the dollar. For continued growth, it is very important to break through the resistance in the range of $91-93,000; at the moment, many metrics look positive. On April 17, I wrote that I expect price movement of Bitcoin in the medium and long term. For now, I maintain the current forecast, and Bitcoin remains on track with the money supply M2, which indicates upcoming growth.
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The 2025 cycle is broken, what next?
It can now be stated with certainty that the 2025 cycle has been disrupted due to the destructive impact of Trump's policies on all financial assets. We did not see growth in March and April, which means that all forecasts for the long-awaited growth of BTC and an alt-season can safely be pushed to the second half of 2025.
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Since the beginning of the year, BTC has lost about 10%, while gold has risen by 20%. The decline of Bitcoin after the start of the tariff war is now between Nasdaq and oil, indicating a partial recovery, but it still does not show the behavior of a safe-haven asset. The digital asset market is in a cooling phase - the accumulation rates of whales are the lowest since February 2025.
Nevertheless, institutional flows dominate the Bitcoin markets, shifting behavior from speculative spikes to sustainable, structured growth. The current correction is not a mass exodus of smart money - rather, it is a reaction from nervous short-term and medium-term holders.
The number of active cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap continues to decline. BTC + stablecoins now account for over 72% of the market - the highest level since 2020 - showing that this cycle is led by Bitcoin and stablecoins. As we can see, opportunities for altcoins are severely limited.
Nevertheless, institutional flows dominate the Bitcoin markets, shifting behavior from speculative spikes to sustainable, structured growth. The current correction is not a mass exodus of smart money - rather, it is a reaction from nervous short-term and medium-term holders.
The number of active cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap continues to decline. BTC + stablecoins now account for over 72% of the market - the highest level since 2020 - showing that this cycle is led by Bitcoin and stablecoins. As we can see, opportunities for altcoins are severely limited.
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Bitcoin is Ready to Grow
Despite the price drop, the number of wallets holding 10 or more BTC continues to grow, reaching a historic high of 16.36 million BTC. This surge in whale activity indicates that large holders are optimistic and may expect Bitcoin to withstand this period of uncertainty.
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It's time to buy
🎯Despite the price of Bitcoin falling from $109,000 to $80,000 since January, both the hash rate and mining difficulty are rising and have reached historical highs. Although the increasing difficulty may seem unfavorable due to rising mining costs, it actually reflects strong fundamental indicators for BTC in the long term.
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Critical support level for BTC
The world is plunging into a liquidity crisis. The stock market under Trump's tariffs is approaching a three-day drop exceeding anything observed during Covid, the financial crisis, or any other period after World War II, except for the crash of 1987.
At the moment, altcoins are extremely complicated, as liquidity dispersion in the market has become most pronounced. The majority of liquidity and volume is now concentrated in the Top 30 assets.
At the moment, altcoins are extremely complicated, as liquidity dispersion in the market has become most pronounced. The majority of liquidity and volume is now concentrated in the Top 30 assets.
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BTC is preparing for a strong movement
🎯Fasten your seatbelts – the spring is compressing, and a powerful BTC price movement is expected. In this cycle, there have been 6 compressions of realized volatility on the daily timeframe, and the seventh is currently happening.
In any case, this is what the realized volatility metric of Bitcoin indicates.
In four out of six cases, the compression led to a price increase, and in two cases, to a decrease. This time, I believe there is a 60% chance we will see growth, and there are several metrics I am monitoring:
In any case, this is what the realized volatility metric of Bitcoin indicates.
In four out of six cases, the compression led to a price increase, and in two cases, to a decrease. This time, I believe there is a 60% chance we will see growth, and there are several metrics I am monitoring:
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How Game Theory Will Affect the Price of BTC
Game theory is a unique branch of applied mathematics that deals with the analysis of decision-making strategies. The foundation of this science is the assumption that the participants in the 'game' act rationally, taking into account both the rules of the game and the actions of other players. Initially, game theory found its application in economics to study market strategies and consumer behavior, and later it also touched upon international relations between countries.
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Has the BTC price reached the bottom?
🎯More and more data is coming in that we may have reached the bottom. Short positions of hedge funds are considered the key reason for the current correction. According to Matrixport, against the backdrop of declining funding rates and falling open interest in CME futures, pressure on the market is easing.
🎲At the same time, the structure of the BTC market has changed significantly: the main holders of BTC have become wallets with a balance of 100 to 1000 BTC (about 8-80 million $). This indicates the arrival of large institutional players and reduces the likelihood of extreme downturns characteristic of previous cycles.
🎲At the same time, the structure of the BTC market has changed significantly: the main holders of BTC have become wallets with a balance of 100 to 1000 BTC (about 8-80 million $). This indicates the arrival of large institutional players and reduces the likelihood of extreme downturns characteristic of previous cycles.
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What to expect from the market this week?
Last week was the worst in the history of cryptocurrencies. Digital investment assets faced an outflow of funds for the third consecutive week, resulting in the largest weekly outflow on record — totaling $2.9 billion, bringing the total for the three weeks to $3.8 billion.
Yesterday, two of Trump's social media posts were enough to reignite market excitement regarding the strategic cryptocurrency reserve of the United States.
Let me remind you that this week will take place ahead of the crypto summit in the U.S. Considering Trump's pro-cryptocurrency position, the state's adoption of Bitcoin, and ongoing regulatory changes, this summit could mark the beginning of a positive period for all cryptocurrencies.
It is also worth paying attention to the data on Thursday - March 6th will see the release of unemployment data in the U.S. for the last month. It could impact all markets.
Last week was the worst in the history of cryptocurrencies. Digital investment assets faced an outflow of funds for the third consecutive week, resulting in the largest weekly outflow on record — totaling $2.9 billion, bringing the total for the three weeks to $3.8 billion.
Yesterday, two of Trump's social media posts were enough to reignite market excitement regarding the strategic cryptocurrency reserve of the United States.
Let me remind you that this week will take place ahead of the crypto summit in the U.S. Considering Trump's pro-cryptocurrency position, the state's adoption of Bitcoin, and ongoing regulatory changes, this summit could mark the beginning of a positive period for all cryptocurrencies.
It is also worth paying attention to the data on Thursday - March 6th will see the release of unemployment data in the U.S. for the last month. It could impact all markets.
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Will we see growth in March?
The situation in the market is getting closer to resolution. The key question is – will we see growth in March / April or not?
Bitcoin mirrors the movement of the global money supply M2 in 83% of cases, but with a slight lag. The money supply M2 has already started to grow.
When liquidity increases, part of this money flows into the crypto market, which often leads to a rise in $BTC BTC. If history repeats itself – Bitcoin could receive a strong upward momentum as early as March-April.
Bitcoin mirrors the movement of the global money supply M2 in 83% of cases, but with a slight lag. The money supply M2 has already started to grow.
When liquidity increases, part of this money flows into the crypto market, which often leads to a rise in $BTC BTC. If history repeats itself – Bitcoin could receive a strong upward momentum as early as March-April.
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What looks attractive for purchases in the current situation?
$ETH. Judging by the chart, the altseason is approaching, so it is not surprising that whales and large funds began to actively acquire ETH in February. Let me remind you that the SEC regulator accepted applications for consideration to launch staking on ETH - ETF. This means that ETH will become a "dividend" token. Therefore, I also recommend paying attention to the LDO and EIGEN tokens. If staking is approved, these projects will become in demand among institutional investors. Given the current narrative on crypto in the US, I think staking will be approved, which will lead to an increase in ETH.
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Is the bull market not over yet?
Alts continue to fall as cryptocurrency market faces new wave of turbulence as uptrend hits resistance. Total market cap falls to $3.15 trillion
One of the main reasons for the decline $BTC is the significant outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs in recent times. And although the selling pressure is noticeable, and many market participants are already having doubts about the market's prospects, key macroeconomic indicators (MVRV, Puell) suggest that the bull run is not over yet. Therefore, the current situation should be viewed as a correction before a new rise. Although it is worth recognizing that the correction may be even deeper.
One of the main reasons for the decline $BTC is the significant outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs in recent times. And although the selling pressure is noticeable, and many market participants are already having doubts about the market's prospects, key macroeconomic indicators (MVRV, Puell) suggest that the bull run is not over yet. Therefore, the current situation should be viewed as a correction before a new rise. Although it is worth recognizing that the correction may be even deeper.
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Alt season will start in March 2025
🎯BTC dominance is showing decline. In just a few weeks we will see if the 4-year cycle will be broken or history will repeat itself.
🦾Let me remind you that in March 2017 we saw a strong decline in dominance $BTC and the beginning of a major alt season, in March 2021 the situation repeated itself and now March 2025 is approaching. In theory, everything is primed for the growth of altcoins - spot ETFs for XRP, DOGE, LTC, SOL are awaiting approval in the US, and the Trump fund is buying aggressively $ETH .
🦾Let me remind you that in March 2017 we saw a strong decline in dominance $BTC and the beginning of a major alt season, in March 2021 the situation repeated itself and now March 2025 is approaching. In theory, everything is primed for the growth of altcoins - spot ETFs for XRP, DOGE, LTC, SOL are awaiting approval in the US, and the Trump fund is buying aggressively $ETH .
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BTC at $150,000
I have no doubt that the USA will soon announce a strategic reserve of BTC. Already twelve states in the USA have passed laws allowing the storage of bitcoins as a strategic reserve. Today, North Carolina joined them.
🎯These states will invest up to 10% of state funds in exchange-traded products linked to digital assets. The laws passed also allow investments in bitcoins for state funds, including teachers' and public servants' pensions, insurance funds, and housing trust funds.
🎯These states will invest up to 10% of state funds in exchange-traded products linked to digital assets. The laws passed also allow investments in bitcoins for state funds, including teachers' and public servants' pensions, insurance funds, and housing trust funds.
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How to Invest in Crypto Projects?
Over the past year, as an investor, I have entered more than 50 projects at early stages. I decided to share my experience and talk about all the pitfalls you may encounter as a venture investor.
After listing on exchanges, token prices often increase significantly, providing the opportunity to achieve a profit of x5–x50. However, it should be noted that investing in early-stage crypto projects is not only an opportunity to gain high profits; it also carries high risks. Successful investments are only possible with a deep study of all aspects and adherence to reasonable risk management.
After listing on exchanges, token prices often increase significantly, providing the opportunity to achieve a profit of x5–x50. However, it should be noted that investing in early-stage crypto projects is not only an opportunity to gain high profits; it also carries high risks. Successful investments are only possible with a deep study of all aspects and adherence to reasonable risk management.
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The Biggest Market Manipulation
I haven't seen such a massive collapse of alts in the market in a long time. There were more liquidations than Covid and the FTX crash!
🧨Bitcoin fell at night to $91,200, altcoins by 30-40% (they were finished off by a sharp increase in BTC dominance), world stock markets also started the week with a sharp decline. Analysts attribute the sharp fall in markets to "Trump's trade war" and the strong strengthening of the dollar. The US President announced the introduction of 10% duties on imports from China and promised that duties for the EU will also be introduced.
🧨Bitcoin fell at night to $91,200, altcoins by 30-40% (they were finished off by a sharp increase in BTC dominance), world stock markets also started the week with a sharp decline. Analysts attribute the sharp fall in markets to "Trump's trade war" and the strong strengthening of the dollar. The US President announced the introduction of 10% duties on imports from China and promised that duties for the EU will also be introduced.
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🎯According to historical data, a year after the halving in February, the long-awaited alt-season began.
⏰Today, the decision on the key interest rate by the Federal Reserve will be announced. The market is 98% sure that the rate will remain at the previous level of 4.5%. Half an hour after the announcement, J. Powell will give a report on the further policy of the Fed. The rate is more or less clear, but what Powell will say is still a question – his speeches can significantly influence the markets. I hope he will be optimistic.
📈The situation in the market is currently relatively calm. Miners' reserves are increasing; they have reduced sales and are transferring crypto to cold storage. The RSI remains in the oversold zone, which may indicate the formation of a local bottom.
⏰Today, the decision on the key interest rate by the Federal Reserve will be announced. The market is 98% sure that the rate will remain at the previous level of 4.5%. Half an hour after the announcement, J. Powell will give a report on the further policy of the Fed. The rate is more or less clear, but what Powell will say is still a question – his speeches can significantly influence the markets. I hope he will be optimistic.
📈The situation in the market is currently relatively calm. Miners' reserves are increasing; they have reduced sales and are transferring crypto to cold storage. The RSI remains in the oversold zone, which may indicate the formation of a local bottom.
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Which tokens may rise in value in the near future?
Buy on expectations. What token expectations should you pay attention to?
REX Shares has submitted proposals for DOGE and TRUMP ETFs, as well as Bonk, Solana, and XRP.
If given the green light, these ETFs could serve as a bridge between meme coins and traditional finance, giving investors access through standard brokerage accounts.
REX Shares has submitted proposals for DOGE and TRUMP ETFs, as well as Bonk, Solana, and XRP.
If given the green light, these ETFs could serve as a bridge between meme coins and traditional finance, giving investors access through standard brokerage accounts.
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