🎯Fasten your seatbelts – the spring is compressing, and a powerful BTC price movement is expected. In this cycle, there have been 6 compressions of realized volatility on the daily timeframe, and the seventh is currently happening.
In any case, this is what the realized volatility metric of Bitcoin indicates.
In four out of six cases, the compression led to a price increase, and in two cases, to a decrease. This time, I believe there is a 60% chance we will see growth, and there are several metrics I am monitoring:
1. The Bitcoin supply ratio on exchanges has officially decreased to 7.53%, the lowest level since February 20, 2018. When the supply of $BTC on exchanges decreases, it typically indicates a reduction in short-term selling pressure.
2. Over the past seven days, long positions still dominate. Overall, the main liquidation pools are around $89k and below $83k.
3. Coinbase Premium has turned negative again.
4. Whales have stopped selling BTC – liquidity inflows into ETFs have resumed.
5. Historically, growth has begun in March.
