币圈大白兔

Main Player: I'm about to pump it!
Retail Investor: I don't believe you! You're trying to trick me into getting on board again.
Main Player: This time I'm really going to pump it, are you getting on board?
Retail Investor: No!
Main Player: If I pump it to 30%, are you getting on board?
Retail Investor: No, it’s definitely a trap! What are you going to use to pump it with no liquidity?
Main Player: Then I'll pump it to 50%, are you getting on board?
Retail Investor: Are you serious? Let me see some more!
Main Player: I'll pump it to 100%, you mean you won't be tempted?
Retail Investor: Wow, are you really going to pump it? But there’s no reason for it!
Main Player: I'll continue to pump it to 200%!
Retail Investor: I don't care anymore, I’ll just join a bit, missing out will feel awful!
Main Player: Continue pumping to 300%
Retail Investor: I'm such an idiot, if I had joined earlier I would have made back my investment!
Main Player: Not enough yet, continue pumping to 400%
Retail Investor: Wow, this is too intense, I can't take it anymore, I'm all in!
Main Player: Let’s go down!!!

So don’t just keep staring at that heat map looking at the long-short ratio, it has some reference value but don’t take it too seriously. In cases of severe long-short imbalance, there is definitely an expectation of a pullback, but when the pullback happens you need to understand market expectations! Otherwise, your “perspective” is too small!
If you really need a reason, it’s: the market's FOMO sentiment is still not enough! $ETH

Combining fundamentals + technical analysis, summarizing the market situation within two weeks in 4 sentences!
1: Currently lacking liquidity, the comprehensive opening of the altcoin season has basically no fundamental conditions for the time being, no need to indulge in excessive fantasies, Bitcoin will continue to follow the blood-sucking model of altcoins.
2: The current position is at a weekly double top structure, but in the short term, it is not yet time for a major correction! However, that will come soon, expected in 2-3 weeks!
3: Directly starting a crash does not align with the maximum interests of the main force; if a major weekly correction is to form, it is likely that there will first be an upward pull to fully let the market retail investors experience FOMO, then initiate a crash, which is more beneficial for the main force to extract liquidity.
4: If there is no interest rate cut before September, a major correction will arrive quickly; weekly level corrections generally last 2-3 months, and timing must meet the main force's wash trading period. If there can be an interest rate cut before September, then it is likely to trend sideways instead of down, so the importance of the interest rate decision in these two months cannot be overstated.

I have provided a chart for market information, please compare it yourself!

1-hour level: From the hourly level perspective, Bitcoin touched 1026 and rebounded, currently in a slight upward fluctuation structure, with the bottom gradually rising, but the top still cannot break through the 1061 box top. For those doing swing trading, pay attention to the three positions in Chart 1 below.

4-hour level: The 4-hour level is within an upward channel, currently located at the bottom area of the upward channel. As long as it does not fall below 103, overall it leans towards bullish! Below is the 100,000 pivot point for long and short positions, which has been tested three times before, providing strong support. If the main force does not distribute and crash, it will be hard to break; however, once it breaks, it represents the arrival of a major correction. Pay attention to the areas around 1031 and near 100,000 on the 4-hour level! If it goes up, it needs to firmly stand above 1065 before it can target 1105; as for 112, it is still far away and does not need to be considered for now! Pay attention to Chart 2 below.

Daily level: The daily level is still within an upward channel, but has simultaneously formed a similar head shape to Chart 1. For those taking long positions, be cautious in taking profits at high levels and gradually exit. If the pattern can develop into what happened in January, there is a high probability of another top followed by a correction. Those who are bullish should pay attention to the position in Chart 3 below!

Because I often shout at key positions for fans to test whether the breakthrough is true/false or if it has fallen!

Then someone comes to me and says: Brother Rabbit, I tested with my position, I'm down 100% on my short, the breakthrough has been confirmed, but how do I get out of this?

Me: ....

To be honest, no one is playing in the current market! So I got a bit impatient and played twice, which makes me a 🐶!

According to the current situation, there really is no need to open a position; this position is truly stuck in limbo, making both long and short trades reasonable, and it’s the time when both bulls and bears meet to call each other 'idiots' the most.

Reason for short position: The highest point this time at 112 is just near the weekly level top trend resistance line, and the consensus for selling is very strong; there have been two peaks with a decline, and the second peak is significantly lower than the first, which also aligns with the overall bearish trend logic.

Reason for long position: From the daily chart, it presents a box structure, and has quickly rebounded three times around 100K, indicating a very strong buying consensus near 100K. A daily level pullback of 10-15K is not the first time, and as long as it doesn't break below 100K, the overall trend remains bullish. Once it breaks and holds above 112, the current formation can also be referred to as a 'bullish continuation.'

Therefore, whether you are bullish or bearish is understandable, but if you decide to short or long at this moment, be cautious; manage your position and play it safe, don’t get too carried away! I also enjoy trading contracts; the difficult part for contract traders is not how to open a position; it’s how to control themselves from opening one!

In such situations, I generally use a small position to scratch the itch and feel the changes in the market. Since both bulls and bears can play, don’t overcomplicate your strategy; focus on going long near 100K and short near 112. So, if we are around 1055, then we can only 'do what we love to do'! Otherwise, do you really want to go all-in recklessly? $BTC

Musk has a fight with Trump, a ten-thousand-dollar one-day tour! A seven-day tour to the imitation hometown!

Israel fights Iran, still a ten-thousand-dollar one-day tour! The imitation goes to the hometown for a seven-day tour again!

Who else is going to fight later, can we just finish it all at once?
The imitation might as well go for a year-long tour and not come back for the time being; anyway, if they come back, they won't be able to stay a day before they have to leave again! 🐶

Bounce back to the position immediately... What do you say, brothers? Is the rabbit awesome? I really don't think I'm awesome; I've already given you the signals you wanted on the chart. The only difference is that I can find the signals on the chart, while you can't!

I drew the chart for you in advance!

I also provided the entry point in advance!

I gave the take profit level, and I mentioned the risk-reward ratio!

Let's not worry about how high it can go; isn't the take profit level for short positions quite good?

There's no need to pay too much attention to irrelevant news! In the end, doesn't that news have to be reflected on the K-line?

Recently, there have been fewer live broadcasts!
Firstly: It's that I feel there isn't much to discuss about the relatively simple market!
Secondly: It's that the continuous rainy days lately have made me a bit EMO!

Currently, the market isn't that difficult; many people struggle with this type of short-term trading, which is actually a case of being blinded by a single leaf. Generally, those who don't do well in such trades share a common trait: they are fixated on the short-term direction of the market!

Don't understand?

For example, when Bitcoin is around 110, are you struggling with whether to go long or short, torn between whether it will continue to rise or hit a peak and fall back? Don't you feel like both sides have their arguments? In fact, all these questions stem from you getting one question wrong: most people think that trading requires confirming the direction first before making a trade!

However, in practical trading, apart from long-term trading where you must clarify the major direction!

For short-term trading, determining the direction is not the priority. I have always believed that tops and bottoms are tested rather than guessed, so when you reach a decent resistance or support level, what you should do is not to directly enter with a heavy position, but to use a small position to feel out the market. You will naturally know whether the direction is up or down; immersing yourself in the situation will help you see the landscape clearly.

This is a logical issue, as well as a problem based on theory. Testing with a small position is always better than standing from a theoretical perspective to speculate. Whether the situation is good or bad, you must first enter the market, then observe the situation clearly, and finally take control of it!

It's like this: once you have an unrealized loss on your account, you will subconsciously tell yourself that it will bounce back, just hold on a bit longer, but you don't realize that the reason for this mindset is not the signals given by the market! It's your unrealized loss making you feel pained; you are unwilling to admit your mistake, so you don't cut your losses. At this moment, your mind is being controlled by emotions! However, if you switch to a small position, your rationality will take the upper hand, admitting mistakes and cutting losses to change direction will become much easier. When facing unrealized profits, people tend to have a clearer judgment of the situation!

Therefore, those who can really excel in short-term trading are not impressive because of their directional judgment, but rather because of: "adjusting one's mindset," "controlling risk," and "managing positions." Making ten trades and being wrong nine times is not impressive; a true expert can make ten trades and be wrong nine times, but just one successful trade can recover all losses!

Well... As expected, today's market has basically entered the estimated position from yesterday. We are currently a few hundred points away from the best position, so let's be patient!

The original plan remains unchanged; everyone should wait normally in the 106-107 range. Due to the downward movement of the box with the trend and the rise of the lower Bollinger Band, it has basically formed a situation of overlap with the original support and resistance switching range.

Therefore: Today's key focus is on the situation of the big cake in the 106-107 range. If it can stabilize normally or if it can pull back multiple times without breaking, we can enter directly. If it breaks down, there’s no need to linger; just stop loss. The risk-reward ratio is reasonable and worth the gamble!

Similarly, take profit on short positions around 110500!

I really like a saying: what you can see is what others want you to see; what you think is actually what others want you to think!

So personally, I don't really like to study news because I feel it has little meaning. As retail investors, we can't control the news or know it in advance; overly relying on news will only make us cannon fodder for others' control.

In this market, there are only two things you can refer to: candlesticks and the consensus of emotions!

Every candlestick is the result of a contest between bulls and bears. No matter how the main forces disguise themselves, candlesticks will never lie. Perhaps some news will affect the change in candlesticks during a certain phase, but when you look at it from a broader perspective, that phase is just the ripples caused by a stone in a calm lake.

Market sentiment is always a chip that the main forces need to utilize; when the market is filled with fear, it often indicates a rally is coming, and when the market is filled with FOMO, it often indicates a dump is coming. Historically, when the Fear and Greed Index is above 85, the probability of a dump is 95%; when it is below 20, the probability of a rally is 95%.

Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at a neutral to slightly high position. According to the shape of this round of Bitcoin, there shouldn't be a true dump for now. Bulls need not panic excessively, and bears don’t need to rush to enter. Be patient and wait for the index to break 80; that will be the timing for bulls to exit and bears to enter. If it directly goes down, it means this round of increase has not ended, giving us more opportunities to go long at lower prices!

Simple analysis of the intraday market:

In the previous article, I mentioned that BTC's emergence of a large bullish candle on the daily chart is most likely the result of the main players using the news from the China-US talks to assist in a trend-driven surge;

It peaked at 110500 but fell back weakly, corresponding with the rebound and pullback position during the previous decline. The second attempt during the day to break through was still ineffective, further confirming that 110500 has significant resistance.

The area around 1062-1070 is the zone of support and resistance interchange, making tonight's CPI data extremely important.

If it's negative, the main players will inevitably sell off in response, and the area around 106 will again become a battleground for bulls and bears.

If it's positive, breaking through 110500 will only be a minor event, with resistance levels above at 1121-1127 waiting.

If it meets or closely approaches expectations, the market may oscillate within the 106-110 range for a short time.

Old Ma and Trump are likely good buddies shoulder to shoulder again, while many retail traders relying on news are left empty-handed. As always: news can be false, but candlestick patterns will never deceive you!

Recently, several fans have asked me about the Solayer project!
As for the project #Solayer , to be honest, I'm not particularly knowledgeable about it, so I'll simply share my personal perspective!

1: Regarding its main selling point: the core technology of unlimited hardware acceleration, I personally think it needs to be viewed dialectically. This technology is indeed a novel narrative, but the narrative is one thing, and whether the market accepts it is another. It's similar to the once-popular modular technology that ultimately fizzled out. In a capital-driven market, to determine whether a project is good, you first need to see if it aligns with capital interests. In other words, if capital is willing to invest, then it’s a good project; otherwise, no matter how impressive your claims are, they will only last for a moment.

2: Looking at the overall K-line chart of this asset, it doesn't look particularly good. It’s clear that the primary wave of profits has basically exited by about 70%. The continuous rapid selling pattern cannot be achieved by retail investors; the selling by the major players will lead to a stampede among retail investors. Overall, there are currently no clear signs of a bottom formation. You can keep an eye on it, but it's not yet the right time to enter.

3: #Solayer is a next-generation high-performance blockchain project born for the Solana ecosystem, dedicated to solving the core bottlenecks of scalability and shared security in the current ecosystem. Its InfiniSVM, which integrates hardware acceleration and protocol reconstruction, aims to achieve extreme performance of over 1 million TPS, driving the SVM towards unlimited scalability. As an infrastructure project on the SOL chain, it’s generally quite good, after all, SOL has backing from European and American capital. If SOL can take off, it’s reasonable for LAYER to ride the wave as well.

Overall, everyone can keep an eye on it, but caution is still needed for entry. Recently, many accounts have been promoting it, and many could just be trying to get airdrop rewards. Don't think that just because there are many promoters, there’s any real benefit, especially for newcomers to the space; you must be cautious!

I generally do not proactively recommend projects I do not understand; because in many cases, those who trust you may base their choices or trades on your opinion, which is my first principle; and I certainly won’t write misleading articles for rewards or airdrops!

Simple Analysis of Intraday Market:

Yesterday, Bitcoin formed a solid bullish candlestick, and it was a bullish line with almost no retracement. To create such a candlestick, there must be genuine buying, in other words, you can understand it as: whatever the market sells, it is immediately digested!

With Bitcoin's first attempt to break through 110500 being ineffective, it is currently in a retracement phase. I have already exited all my long positions near 110 for profit.

From an overall market trend perspective, yesterday's volume surge was actually supported by some expectations regarding the China-U.S. negotiations. Bitcoin surged from 100,000 to 110,000, effectively consuming all the previous downward momentum. Therefore, at this point, it has returned to the range of 1065-1105 and is in a fluctuating pattern; whether you are bullish or bearish, I suggest you remain on the sidelines for now. The best strategy at this moment is to "wait."

There is a saying: the rise/fall due to news will revert to its original state once the news is realized. For the upcoming Bitcoin, I am more inclined to see: first a small retracement, then another drop to the 106-1068 support/resistance exchange zone. This zone is a periodic boundary between bulls and bears. In other words, for the main players, this position will infinitely approach balance; the main players' choice to break upward or downward is highly cost-effective!

However, from a daily chart perspective, the resistance level of the upward channel is around 122, while the support level at the bottom of the channel is around 88000. Therefore, whether this round of market will first go to 122 and then drop or first retrace to 8.8 before pulling up, you only need to keep an eye on the support level at 100,000.

For those looking to short, it is recommended to wait until around 112 to try a position, with an acceptable risk-reward ratio; for those looking to long, you also need to wait for a retracement that does not break 1065 before considering re-entering. Please be cautious in your operations!
$BTC

Since you have confirmed your direction, why hesitate because of others' thoughts?

The market is a game; as long as the direction is right, the process is an experience, and life is the same!

I have something urgent today and cannot go live!

Order by the picture: I've drawn the picture for you, and those who have learned to draw lines with me should be able to understand how to place an order, right!

What is a contract?
A contract is making larger trades with limited funds; however, it comes with greater risk.
What is spot trading?
Spot trading is making stable trades with large funds, but small capital cannot be utilized!
Large funds use leverage, while small funds engage in spot trading; you are getting it all backwards!

Most people understand the above, but what is trading? Do you really understand?

In my opinion, so-called trading is not about 'finding the bottom' or 'finding the top,' but rather 'position management' + 'risk-reward ratio' + 'strictly executing take profit and stop loss.'
No one can buy at the absolute bottom, and no one can sell at the absolute top. The trading we are all trying to figure out is just about more or less, so what is trading?

Making high-probability trades at high-probability positions, minimizing losses as much as possible and maximizing gains as much as possible, means you have already surpassed most people.

All FOMO and fear are due to the hypothetical goals you set for yourself in your mind.

When you are in floating losses, rationality tells you to cut losses, but emotion tells you to wait a little longer. When emotion overcomes rationality, you are destined to incur losses. Perhaps you can get lucky many times, but as long as you make one mistake, everything equals zero!

Last night, the guy who came to ask about this stock really asked at the right time! $MASK

Looking up, oh wow, it's taking off! 🐶

For some stocks, you can always choose to go long, but for some stocks, you can only short high!

Make high-probability trades at high-probability positions, huh... When is a high-probability position?

After the big coin broke through the 106 box, it reached a maximum of 112, then continued to fluctuate downward, returning to the previous box. The bottom of the previous box is your entry point; the risk-reward ratio is reasonable, and the risk is very small. If it breaks below, just stop loss. So, trading at such a position is called: making high-probability trades at high-probability positions!

As the market goes up, the top of the downward channel is around 105, you can use that as your first take-profit point. If it cannot break through, clear your position and exit; if it continues to break through, how about placing your second take-profit point at 106? After reaching the target, clear your position for a profit!

If it breaks through and tests again without falling, what are you afraid of when you chase in? If it directly tests multiple times without breaking through, why are you worried when you go short?

The information you want is all presented to you. Can you really make good trades by paying attention to those hard-to-distinguish rumors every day? Remember: everything can be fake, but K-lines will never lie!

You think: Zams has liquidated, but he might not have, because he might have opened a short position elsewhere!

You think: Trump is arguing with Musk? But it might just be a staged play like Zhou Yu vs. Huang Gai; just messing up the global financial landscape, making money and US debt.

You think: Powell is not cooperating with Trump? But it might be one playing the bad cop, and the other the good cop; washing the US dollar index, washing US stocks, washing the crypto space! If not washed... how can money come out, and if money doesn't come out, how can US debt be repaid!

I do not like conspiracy theories, but this world is essentially a large stage; it seems you are watching a show, but in reality, it is performed for you!

So I never believe in news I cannot judge for myself, nor do I make trades based on news; I only trust candlestick charts, bare candlesticks won't lie, each one is a game of buying and selling! $BTC

A drop of 3000 points in an hour, a recovery in the morning!

To be honest, this market is indeed very difficult, especially for newcomers in the crypto space. Take my advice: don't go all in easily!

In such extreme market conditions, it is even more important to control your emotions, only gamble in high-probability positions, and strictly execute your stop-loss plan. Especially avoid FOMO.

I never play the hindsight game; before my brothers enter the market, I always share my positions first! If anyone is going to be cannon fodder, it should be me first.

But I also make mistakes sometimes; I can't hold your hand and help you execute your stop-loss!

I can provide the entry, direction, and position, but your stop-loss, take-profit, and position size can only depend on you.

Many times, profit does not come from the win rate but from strict execution. Minimize losses when wrong, maximize gains when right, and do not open positions in bad locations! Remember, remember! $BTC