币圈大白兔

The news conference in the early morning must have been watched by many

In the long run, legislative regulation is a good thing with many benefits

But in the short term, it is a negative

What does this mean?

The first step in the American legislative framework is to gain control over stablecoins, regulatory power, and does not rule out the government issuing stablecoins itself; thus, the existing framework will inevitably be affected by fluctuations

If all stablecoin issuers ultimately comply with regulations, it can actually be understood as a collaboration between decentralization and centralization. If funds from gray and black industries flow onto the blockchain in the future, they can be frozen at any time. In the long run, it is positive for the crypto world, but in the short term, it further extracts liquidity from the crypto market, hence it is negative

The Federal Reserve has recently been sending signals, stating that there will not be any interest rate cuts for the time being!

The strategy can be summed up in a few words: short on highs!

The logic I have always emphasized is that all positive and negative news in the crypto world is not as effective as a direct interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The contradiction between exhausted liquidity and the proliferation of worthless tokens makes it certain that there will not be a season of altcoins before an interest rate cut

So we only need to focus on when the Federal Reserve will cut rates, rather than monitoring the square and charging faith everywhere! #美联储维持利率不变

On February 5th, I said the market would reverse and fall, short on highs!

You all called me stupid

On April 23rd, I said the market would reverse and rise, long on lows

You still called me stupid

I later found out that the ones who called me stupid before and are now calling me an idiot are the same group of people☺

Those who are too smart have all flown away, so I might as well be an idiot🥱

Volume Change Mnemonics
During a Downtrend:
1: If volume increases but price doesn't fall, it will rise (reversal)
2: If volume increases and price falls, it will crash (acceleration)
3: If volume decreases and price falls, it will continue to fall (weaker buying pressure)
4: If volume decreases and price doesn't fall, wait longer (weaker selling pressure)
5: If the closing line is a doji, short positions can take profit first (beware of market reversal)
6: If there is a doji followed by a further decline, short positions can re-enter
During an Uptrend:
1: If volume increases but price doesn't rise, it will fall (reversal)
2: If volume increases and price rises, it will soar (acceleration)
3: If volume decreases and price rises, it will continue to rise (weaker selling pressure)
4: If volume decreases and price doesn't rise, wait longer (weaker buying pressure)
5: If the closing line is a doji, long positions can take profit first (beware of market reversal)
If there is a doji followed by further increases, long positions can re-enter

Note:
1: The above mnemonics should be observed in conjunction with trading volume and different time frame candlestick levels. Do not confuse the use of time frames; trade according to the appropriate time frame.
2: Extreme market conditions are not applicable (e.g., news-driven rallies/crashes)
3: The above mnemonics are accumulated from my years of cryptocurrency trading experience and are for reference only, not investment advice!

For detailed explanations: Please follow my Binance live broadcasts or private live explanations!

$To be honest, this market situation is actually quite simple

The market has seen inflows from the escape of funds from US stocks and bonds, combined with MicroStrategy occasionally buying in. It’s quite normal for Bitcoin to have a decent rally, so if you are going long, it basically aligns with the trend. Just don’t FOMO, take your profits, and wait for a pullback to re-enter. It’s not yet the time to go all in aggressively, so don’t constantly worry about getting left behind.

As for those shorting, there’s no need to be overly anxious. After all, the fundamental issues in the market have not been resolved. Without liquidity, one can't expect to skyrocket. So for those who are stuck in short positions, wait for a pullback to reduce your position size, and when it goes up, you can add to your average price. Always ensure that your liquidation is within a reasonable range. I believe that holding on is not difficult; if things go quickly, each Black Friday could potentially start a decline. For those stuck in Bitcoin, the difficulty of breaking even might be a bit higher, but don't be afraid of it!

There are also those who want to buy at 50,000 or 60,000. I won’t say it’s impossible to go down, no one dares to say that, but I can confidently say there’s a 90% chance it won’t drop that low. If you listen to advice, adjust your expectations upwards. After all, you are buying the spot, even if it’s a little higher, just buy a bit more. Don't always pursue perfection. As for those trading contracts, don’t tell me you’re also waiting for 50,000 or 60,000. You’re trading contracts, not buying spot, so pursuing extreme prices is somewhat misplaced.

As for those who see 100,000 at a glance, I want to say that I can also see 100,000, even 120,000, but not so soon. We have just seen the reversal signal. Are you just joking? Even if it goes, it will be a volatile upward trend, and there will definitely be pullbacks along the way!

This kind of person can be directly blocked in the future. I suddenly realized several truths:

1: Never argue with an idiot, because their time is not valuable.

2: For example, if you find yourself arguing with someone who speaks with no logic, only emotions, and is self-righteous like a fool, you should leave immediately.

3: They will bring your IQ down to their level and then defeat you with years of foolish experience.

4: The only advantage an idiot has over you is time.

As the saying goes: Good words are hard to persuade a dying ghost!

What, am I posting a market reversal idea, did I poke the hornet's nest of the bears? 😬😬

No... Is the threshold for trolls this low now? 🫣🫣

Is it enough to just add insulting tone words to every sentence to be a troll? To make oneself seem slightly more imposing?

Where are they hiring trolls? I want to apply; as for salary, just let me have some pig trotter rice! 😁😁

Fans told me: You should post some profit images to attract more viewers!

Actually, I used to post often, but now I don't because there are always some “naive” guys commenting below: Oh, what's the point of simulating a trading account!

I can smell that sourness through the screen, so I gradually stopped posting.

Let’s share some earnings from a few friends; this time, I must record it because I almost 'flipped the car' 😋😋

Tonight's independent market for Bitcoin has left both bulls and bears confused

Actually, I think it's quite understandable

Recently, many people should have noticed a term: the US Dollar Index; the sharp decline of the US Dollar Index + the decline of the US stock market has led to panic selling in the dollar market

Some safe-haven funds have flowed out, with some moving to the gold market, driving gold to continue rising, and a small part flowing to BTC, leading to tonight's independent rise of Bitcoin

Careful friends should have noticed that the US stock market actually opened low and continued to decline tonight. In the past, when such a situation occurred, Bitcoin would not just crash, but it was absolutely impossible for it to rise against the trend. However, today Bitcoin did rise against the trend, which confirmed my speculation

Safe-haven funds entering the crypto market will not choose altcoins, so altcoins basically have no significant upward movement, which also proves that this portion of funds is aimed at Bitcoin as a safe haven rather than real liquidity funds

In other words, assuming the US Dollar Index + the US stock market continues to plummet, then more safe-haven funds will flow into Bitcoin. However, from the fundamentals and technical aspects of Bitcoin itself, the range of 88500-89100 is indeed a turning point for bulls and bears, and a large amount of sell orders have accumulated here. So after Bitcoin rises to this point, it will create a significant stagnation in growth, or say a divergence between bulls and bears, leading to a tug-of-war and volatile situation in the market

So next: pay close attention to the US Dollar Index and the US stock market situation. If it continues to plummet, then Bitcoin breaking 89100 is just a matter of time. Conversely, if Bitcoin cannot use this wave to break through, then this position will have a greater resistance point

Therefore, at present, this position can no longer be simply viewed using technical indicators. But regardless of the outcome, this is a position where I must short. Of course, I will not short Bitcoin, but rather short altcoins. If it breaks, I can stop-loss, it won't have much impact!

Similarly, for retail investors going long on altcoins, the same advice applies: do not FOMO too much. Safe-haven funds do not equal the Federal Reserve’s waterproof liquidity; the seasonal altcoin market is far from being driven by this amount of safe-haven funds. I'm actually worried that we might see another scenario where Bitcoin rises independently and siphons off from altcoins

Tonight's short position may be the last short position for the group. After completing this order, brothers should start accumulating long positions at lower prices 🤗🤗$BTC

Recently, there have been several incidents of large liquidation events!

I cannot say too much here, after all, it will affect many people's cake🎂

As a small tech blogger, I just want to tell my followers who have paid attention to me one thing: Do not hand your fate over to others!

Always think about why!

Why does he make money and want to bring you along?

Would you work for free without compensation?

Why are there more and more people cutting leeks while fewer and fewer are doing technology?

Why do others keep making money while you blow up as soon as you follow?

Once you understand the above questions, you will naturally know what to do🥱
What you can see is not necessarily real, and what you cannot see is not necessarily fake.

Here is a unified reply to my dear little fans:

I am not a full-time KOL, nor am I involved in traffic generation or commissions, and I certainly do not recruit people to place orders!

I usually post out of pure hobby, and my long-time followers know that I am a real trader, and my position size is generally larger than most of my followers.

Trading emphasizes a balance between work and rest. On weekends, I generally choose to rest and spend time with my family, so I usually won’t post any articles or go live during the weekend. However, if I encounter a good opportunity, I will also share it with the friends in the group.

Regarding the recent situation where some sectors have seen a surge in imitation, brothers, don’t chase too aggressively. I don’t express opinions because I think it’s unnecessary to ride this wave of hype.

Until there is a real reversal in Bitcoin, our strategy remains unchanged. Maintaining patience is the most important quality in trading.

Only trade within your understanding, and only trade confidently. Those who can strictly execute their strategy are the ones who will smile in the future.

Finally, as we enter Monday, there will definitely be significant fluctuations in the market. Take profits in a timely manner if you are in the green, and if you are in cash, wait until the US stock market opens tonight to reconsider.

Tonight at 10 PM in the Binance live broadcast room, don’t miss it! 😋😋

Wednesday's rally, Friday's crash

Friday's crash, weekend's rally

Weekend's rally, Monday's crash

Weekend's Asian market, retail investors don't enter, who will crash on Monday?

Don't be fooled by the counterfeit surges, how many are there to help you break free from being trapped?

Look beyond the surface to see the essence

Wait for it to rally a bit more, brothers prepare to go short! 😏

So... this implies that there will be three interest rate cuts this year ☺

The current interest rate of the Federal Reserve is 4.5%, while generally, 3.5 is the watershed, which you can understand as the watershed for whether people are willing to take out loans or, in other words, whether people are willing to deposit money in the bank!

When the interest rate is above 3.5%, the deposit interest rate may reach 3%, and the difference in between is called the interest spread, which is the bank's profit.

When people's deposit interest rate is below 3.5%, people are more willing to take out loans from the bank to invest, while above 3.5%, people are more willing to deposit money in the bank to pursue stable returns!

So if the interest rate can indeed drop to 3% within the year, there will definitely be a second wave; conversely, there will definitely not be a second wave; the fundamental is liquidity, and other factors will have to take a backseat!

There really isn't much to say about the market these days; everything is within expectations, just oscillating between high and low positions.

Let me share my personal understanding of Powell's speech!

1. Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, waiting for clearer signals before considering adjusting policy stance.
Interpretation: No rate cuts for now.

2. Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains 'robust'; strong imports in the first quarter have caused some drag, and GDP growth may slow compared to last year.
Interpretation: No rate cuts for now, but economic growth is slowing.

3. Inflation Outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push up inflation; March PCE year-on-year is expected to be 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.
Interpretation: Tariffs have disrupted the Fed's plans, no rate cuts for now.

4. Labor Market: Overall remains balanced; reduced funding for research is expected to have a significant impact on employment; unemployment rate is expected to rise.
Interpretation: An increase in the unemployment rate is within my expectations, but the economy is stable, still not considering rate cuts.

5. Tariff Impact: The current level of tariff increases has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impacts remain highly uncertain.
Interpretation: Trump's tariffs have scared me, so I can't figure out what will happen next, temporarily watching and not cutting rates.

6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see 'some relaxation'.
Interpretation: If cryptocurrency takes off in the future, don't forget that I supported it.

7. Independence: The Fed's independence is granted by law; the Fed will not be influenced by political pressure.
Interpretation: Trump, don't think you can pressure me with power, you can't control me, my authority is given by law.

8. Don't expect the Fed to step in to save the market; if there is a dollar shortage, the Fed is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.
Interpretation: Leave a backdoor, don't say I, the Fed, am unyielding.

To summarize in plain language: We, the Fed, have our own rate cut plans; if it weren't for your unreliability causing this situation, the inflation target would have been achieved. We were originally prepared to continue cutting rates this year, but you, Trump, ruined it. If you want to blame someone, blame the unreliability, don't come to me; I won't take the blame! As for cryptocurrency, since it can't be stopped, let's show some support on the surface, and it'll be easier to compete for regulatory authority in the future!

Understanding the Control Techniques of Major Players Before Rallying

1: Major players use their chip or capital advantages to deliberately suppress prices through methods such as wash trading, creating an illusion of price decline, causing panicked retail investors to sell. Meanwhile, the major players take the opportunity to quietly absorb cheap chips at low levels.

2: Major players conduct long-term sideways consolidation within a relatively narrow price range. During this process, they control the price volatility by continuously buying and selling, wearing down the patience of retail investors. Those who lack conviction may sell due to the absence of hope for rising prices, while major players secretly collect these chips.

3: Major players quickly sell off large quantities in a short period, creating the illusion of an impending crash. This sudden drop can cause retail investors to panic and sell out of fear, and major players can absorb these sell-offs at lower levels, achieving the goal of clearing floating chips and reducing subsequent upward pressure.

4: During a slight price increase, major players create fluctuations by intermittently suppressing prices. This makes retail investors mistakenly believe that the upward momentum is weak or that a top is forming, leading them to sell. Through this method, major players can clear out some weak hands and further collect chips during the fluctuations.

5: Major players quickly raise prices with a small amount of capital to observe the selling pressure above. If the selling pressure above is light, it indicates that the resistance is low, allowing for relatively low costs in subsequent rises. If the selling pressure is heavy, major players may need to further clear floating chips or adjust their rally strategy.

6: Major players intentionally suppress prices to observe the buying strength below. If there is strong buying support below, it indicates that many investors are optimistic about the stock's future, which major players can leverage during subsequent rallies. If the buying strength below is weak, major players may need to stabilize the bottom first, commonly referred to as bottoming.

7: After major players have accumulated a certain amount of chips, they will lock in a portion of these chips to reduce the number of circulating chips in the market. This way, they can lower the cost of subsequent rallies and better control the trend. Major players often reach agreements with long-term investors or institutions to hold onto stocks without selling, or they may lock in positions by holding a certain proportion of chips for the long term.

$BTC
$ETH
You need to be very careful when trading in the current market!

I don’t want to pour cold water on the bulls, because I also hope for a quick reversal and breakthrough, as I have invested quite a bit in spot at the bottom.

However, as a technical blogger, I can only say what I can see and understand from the market information.

It is evident that liquidity is gradually drying up, being absorbed by the U.S. stock market and the gold market. The Federal Reserve has no expectation of interest rate cuts, and tariffs are still undecided. From a logical standpoint, what fundamental factors can support a rapid rebound to a bull market?

The technical aspect is even clearer; you shouldn’t always stare at the minute chart. You should look at the daily and weekly trends!
The so-called surges on the minute chart are merely fluctuations on the weekly chart.

The 86100 range has attempted to break through twice, both ending in failure, let alone the significant resistance at 89000. The middle line of the daily chart has been grinding for 4 days, and it hasn’t even touched the upper line. Don’t be fooled by the current rise of Bitcoin; that is the result of sacrificing liquidity in the crypto space. Bitcoin moves 2 points a day, but look at how many altcoins are crashing!

Although the MACD has shown a golden cross, it hasn't touched the zero line yet, indicating insufficient bullish momentum; the overall trend remains suppressed near the moving averages.

Such a market makes it hard for me to believe that a bullish or bearish reversal can happen in the short term. However, in trading, you can’t rely solely on our perceptions; you can’t just claim bearishness because I went short or bullishness because I went long. Both rises and falls need solid fundamentals.

So I can only say, be cautious in chasing highs and cutting losses. The current position is not a bottom, chasing long carries high risk. A gentle reminder: for reference only, please avoid mindless trolls!

The worse the market situation, the better you should learn to pick your targets!

Today's most outstanding public chain series #TON

Can't pick targets?

Then click the upper right corner "Follow" to consult daily in the Binance live room about the targets you are optimistic about!

A brief guide on how to control your impulsive behavior during trading:

1: Set a trading plan: Before entering a contract, you need to think about how you plan to trade. For example, how much money you are willing to invest, under what circumstances you will buy, at what price you will sell, and how much loss will prompt you to cut losses and how much profit will lead you to take it. Write all of this down, just like planning your route before heading out, so that you won't lose your composure during trading.

2: Control position size: Don't throw too much money into a contract at once; participate with a small amount of capital. It's like driving a car; you can't floor the gas pedal and speed recklessly; you need to leave some room, so even if you encounter market fluctuations, you won't panic due to significant losses.

3: Don't be swayed by emotions: During trading, if you see the contract price rise, don't get too excited too soon, thinking, "Wow, I'm going to make a fortune," and then blindly increase your position; if the price falls, don't rush and think, "I need to recover my losses quickly," and act impulsively. You must constantly remind yourself that the market is volatile and stick to your plan.

4: Learn to take breaks: If you feel yourself getting overly excited or anxious, take a break immediately. It's like when you get tired from running; you need to rest for a while. You can stop checking the trading interface, drink some water, take a walk, and let your emotions calm down before returning to check the market.

5: Review the trading process: After each trade, whether you made a profit or a loss, look back at how you operated. See if you followed your plan, if there were areas you did poorly, and how you could improve if you encounter similar situations next time.

6: Analyze market patterns: Study the market more, observe the prices. Generally, under what circumstances will prices rise or fall? Look for patterns within this. This way, you'll understand the market better, and during your next trade, you'll feel more confident and less likely to get carried away by minor fluctuations.

The biggest fear in trading is not being deceived by the market
Nor being deceived by news
Even less by Trump

But being deceived by oneself

If you don’t believe it, you can continue reading. The news that OM has dropped 96% from its peak of 9.17 will soon be digested by the market

If it rises again by 10%, many people will jump out and say it’s skyrocketing
If it rises again by 50%, even more people will still rush in to chase the high
If it rises again by 100%, you will find a lot of people saying it will return to the previous high
If it rises by 200%, there will be people saying it has broken the historical high

These people are the same ones who said the bull was back when ETH rose from 1400 to 1600, because they can never understand what it means for an asset to drop 96% from its peak. This means that to rise from the current 0.37 to 9.17, it needs to increase by 2392% (24 times)

This is human nature; most people remember the good but forget the bad, so this market will have a continuous stream of retail investors, endlessly!

Because the first major characteristic of retail investors is that they like to self-numb and self-comfort!

The determination of bull or bear is based on a comprehensive judgment of market logic, fundamentals, and the macro environment, rather than how much a particular asset has risen or fallen

Shouting bear at a slight drop and bull at a slight rise is either bad or foolish!

Is this raising pigs? Fat and stewed in a pot?

What happened? #om