川三

You might also be wondering: how can I make money and survive in the market?

To be honest, I've been searching for this answer too.
It's just that now I have a clearer understanding than before —
we cannot control how the market moves, but we can decide how we move and whether we have a method to do so.

I don't call out trades or chase rising prices.
What I am used to doing is reviewing the market structure twice a day, analyzing the main force's rhythm, and organizing trading scripts.

You can consider these contents as:

A logically clear market sketch;

A reference perspective for emotional noise reduction;

A person who is still in the market watching the structure with you.

📍If you encounter problems in trading, such as:
"Is this a false breakout or a buildup before a main rise?"

"Should I take profit now, or hold on a bit longer?"

Feel free to leave a comment under my post.
I am not omnipotent, but I will certainly look seriously and try to respond.

Ultimately, writing scripts and doing analysis is not just for others to see,
it's also a way for me to review, refine, and deepen my own understanding.

Rhythm, structure, and emotion are the three fundamental aspects of trading.
If it can help you avoid a loss once or stabilize your position,
then what I've written has meaning.

👋 I open up the script every day,
accompanying you to understand the main force's rhythm, avoiding the pitfalls that you keep falling into,
earning a bit more steadily and going a bit longer.

—— Chuan San

$ETH This kind of fluctuation is quite unsettling, it's too quiet.

Let's take a quick look:

🧱4-hour level

The long-term direction has not yet been determined, it is at the boundary point of rebound repair and secondary breakdown.
Currently feels more like a phase where the major player is inducing chips.

🧱1-hour level

In the second half of this week, mainly oscillating within a low volatility channel, RSI shows neutral performance, OBV and trading volume show no signs of expansion, momentum is stable.
RSI is close to 50, indicating that both bulls and bears are evenly matched, entering a fluctuation phase;
No new HL or HH has formed, the structure does not support the continuation of a bullish trend.

If it's accumulation, a more obvious drop followed by a recovery is needed;
If it's gradual selling, there may be a false breakout to lure in more buyers.

🧱15-minute and 3-minute levels
If it can't get above 2480, it's just deceiving.
If it loses 2415, it will restart a weak trend;
Target looks at 2406 → 2386, at most to around 2350.

Currently, a better strategy is to stay in cash and not participate in ambiguous market conditions.

Real big moves are always a line that shoots up, and you can't keep up;
The remaining slow movements are basically trying to trick you in.
So the first move is not worth participating in at all.

$ETH June 28 Structural Analysis

In the past two days, ETH has been consolidating in the range of approximately 2,400–2,460, with both bulls and bears repeatedly testing the waters; the current position is very critical.

📉 I. Structural Review
The daily chart is still in a rebound repair after a downtrend, facing significant resistance above.

The 2-hour chart shows a LH structure, with a lack of strength in the upward movement and weakened short-term momentum.

The moving average system is intertwined, with prices fluctuating back and forth in the equilibrium zone, indicating that the market is waiting for direction.

📉 II. Momentum Performance
RSI and OBV show signs of a top divergence in most cycles;

The rebound process lacks volume, and short-term sentiment is generally cautious;

Multiple tests around 2,450 have been suppressed, indicating that there is resistance from the main force above.

📉 III. Possible Scenarios from the Main Force

Scenario 1: Trapping the bulls and crashing

Rally to around 2,450;
Retreat, breaking below 2,420, triggering stop-losses;
After pulling back to 2,360–2,380, accumulate again to form a bottom.

Scenario 2: Sideways tug-of-war
Maintain consolidation in the range of 2,420–2,445;

No break, no establishment, wearing down sentiment and clearing direction;

IV. Key Position Consolidation
Resistance Zone: 2,450–2,475 (bull trapping pressure zone) | 2,500+ (actual turning point)
Support Zone: 2,385–2,400 (short-term defensive position) | 2,360–2,380 (bullish defense line)

$ETH 6th, June 27 Evening Session

🔍 Daily Chart
Current structure is a wide range oscillation pattern with lower highs (LH) and higher lows (HL);

The price has not yet broken through the previous high, indicating that the bulls have failed to dominate the structural reversal;

RSI and OBV show a clear bearish divergence, indicating that upward momentum is gradually weakening;

1 Hour
Consolidating near the premium zone, the structure has not shown a clear direction;

The upper high is continuously tested but not broken, showing that buyers are attempting but lack strength;

RSI remains neutral to weak, indicating a lack of upward strength in the short term;

Current price is close to the upper edge of the balance zone, but has not stabilized.

15 Minutes and 3 Minutes

The 3m chart shows a weak rebound followed by a further weakening structure;

🧱 Main Scenario:

If it cannot rise above 2460 and form a new structural high, then the current structure is in a redistribution phase after a false bullish signal;
Target: Priority to retest the 2430–2400 support zone, if broken, look down to 2330;

🧱 Alternative Scenario (sharp upward movement after a consolidation bottom)
If it stabilizes in the short term at 2460–2470 and breaks through near 2500, it will enter the main upward phase;

$ETH Please see the picture

June 26th Morning Analysis

$BTC is currently a failed attempt to lure buyers → sideways trading at a high level, the next step may be a step-down retest near 106200 – 105800,

the possibility of a quick recovery to 107800 and turning bullish is low.

$ETH follows BTC, fluctuating sideways; if BTC weakens, it will follow with a decline. Support observation points: 2400, 2386, 2360;

A low RSI doesn't necessarily mean a decline; it depends on 'why it is low'.

RSI, or the 'Relative Strength Index', reflects the relative strength of 'recent gains vs losses' rather than an absolute direction.

Therefore, sometimes you will see a very low RSI, but the price remains flat and does not decline. This is because it has already dropped too much beforehand, and even if it only consolidates afterwards, the RSI will remain low—this does not mean that it will continue to decline.

At this point, it is important to consider the structure. For example:

If the price is consolidating near a structural support level and the RSI is flat at a low level without making new lows, it indicates that selling pressure is waning, and it may be forming a bottom;

Conversely, if the RSI is low but the structure continues to make new lows, it may indicate that the downtrend is not over.

In summary:
A low RSI indicates that bulls are weak, but it does not mean that bears can still push down. It is essential to see whether the structure continues to break down; RSI is merely a momentum reference, not the direction itself.

Thus, 'structure' is the most important aspect in trading; it is the core.
Indicators like RSI and KDJ are used to determine if it is a bottom, accumulation during consolidation, or if the structure is continuing to decline (not finished falling) and other situations.

#川三说交易

Analysis of the Evening Session on the 25th of $BTC 6

Structure:
4 Hours
Currently in a test of the structural high point after a strong rebound, but has entered a key resistance zone at the previous high, with risks of 'false breakouts + liquidation'.

1H (1 Hour)
An obvious 'Bear' mark appears + RSI at a high level showing divergence, CVD momentum follows but shows signs of weakening;

The structure is a complete rise + consolidation + another peak, and it may form a double top/fake breakout structure.

Data Perspective:
Large players are going long, but retail investors are clearly not following. It belongs to a 'minority capital controlling push-up' scenario; once sold off, it will drop quickly.
Active buying has declined: recent prices have been consolidating, but CVD has not followed the rise, indicating no follow-up buying on the peaks.

15-Minute + 3-Minute Structure
There is some buying support at the bottom, but weaker than the previous upward momentum. Short-term weakening signals have appeared.

Judgment: If it breaks below the key support around 106,700, it will confirm the completion of the short-term top formation.

High Probability:
Pullbacks to 106,400, 106,000, 105,800, need to pay attention to: 105,200, if broken, could reach the support of 103,800 before the platform.

If the US market opens and breaks 107,100, then watch for 107,500, 107,800. Currently observing insufficient momentum, unable to rise too high, with a maximum of 108,200 (if reached, can short).

June 25, $ETH 6 Morning Analysis

Currently, the 1-hour RSI has shown a clear divergence, and the OBV indicates a depletion of active buying, with signs of a pullback.

The 15-minute chart has not shown synchronized volume increase, raising suspicions of a "false breakout".

If the short-term cannot break through the upper limit of 2480, and falls below 2440 (short-term structural support),

it is highly likely to pull back and test the 2300 or 2150 area, once again seeking liquidity.

$ETH June 24 Midday

Currently:

15M: Clearly aligned along moving averages in a bullish formation, short-term is in a trending zone;
3M: Exhibiting a typical oscillation and pullback, currently reaching a local premium area, with signs of consolidation;

From a microstructural perspective, there is still room for upward movement, but another surge should be approached with caution due to potential top divergence and the possibility of a high sweep to induce more buyers.

If you wake up in the morning and see that $BTC has broken through 106,000, or even 106,500, and the momentum hasn't intensified, and the trading volume hasn't followed, then it is very likely that

👉 "High Position Impact + Inducing Buying + Washing Orders"

$ETH 6 On the evening of the 23rd:

General Direction: Today is mainly a rebound and repair rhythm.
ETH has just experienced a deep pullback from both the 1H and even the daily chart, and is currently in a short-term oversold rebound phase.

The current European session (London) has lifted, and tonight we will focus on whether the US session will continue this trend,

The key level for distinguishing between long and short positions mainly looks at the 2260–2280 range to see if it can consolidate. If broken, we will look at 2320–2350, and even attempt above 2400. For long positions, it's also advisable to take partial profits at the target to avoid being overly greedy and prevent a pullback after a surge.

Since this is a corrective rally, even if there is local divergence or momentum exhaustion, it is more about short-term bulls resting and consolidating rather than a major trend reversal leading to new lows. Therefore, be cautious about shorting and take profits when possible.

2240 and 2200 are the support levels below.

First of all, every time before a trade, what really needs to be concerned is not how much has risen or fallen in the past, but whether the current pullback or rebound is strong or weak, real or fake. This determines whether to continue or observe, whether to follow or go against.

On June 23, $ETH in the morning,
1H K-line sets the rhythm:
This wave is a typical downward Discount zone that induces shorts + a short rebound. Unless it returns above 2350 and stabilizes, it is still a rebound perspective.

Today's thought process is still:
First, follow the rebound for quick trades, and after hitting the top, prioritize looking for short opportunities.

The current judgment is a volatile day; do not chase shorts below, and do not chase longs above.

Rest today, just a brief mention

$BTC can still bounce a bit, $ETH is weaker, don't chase the highs for both, the correct approach is to buy low and sell high.

On the evening of December 21, $ETH 6

ETH has currently broken through the high range and is undergoing a 'weak recovery → further decline.' Unless it strongly stands above 2500+ with volume, it is likely to continue a downward trend in search of support.

🔑 Execution Tips
Short positions preferred: 2450–2480 is the best resistance zone. If there is stagnation or a false breakout, place a short order, with a stop loss above 2500, and target sequentially at 2400–2350–2300.

If it directly breaks below 2400, then place a short on weak rebounds (if it fails to rebound above 2425, go short), following the accelerated breakdown for profit.

$ETH The last two daily candles are large bearish candles, accompanied by an RSI divergence mark, suggesting that the current bullish momentum is weakening.

$BTC The daily RSI has fallen from above 70 to below the average line, and a divergence signal has appeared, indicating signs of exhausted momentum.
Overall, the big direction is a gradual downward shift in the top structure, and the bearish structure is spreading.

Both of them are currently in a state of expecting a short-term rebound, followed by a continuation of the decline. This process may last for a few days. It will not happen immediately.

Everyone should have expectations first.

Key Positions for the Evening Session on June 20

$BTC
Resistance Above: 106200–107000
Critical Point: 105250
If it holds above 105250, there is a chance to rally, but the pressure above is significant, so consider reducing positions;
If it falls back below 105250, be cautious of a pullback to 104200 or lower, and pay attention to take profit and stop loss.

$ETH
Resistance Above: 2570–2580
Critical Point: 2530
If it holds above 2530, it can still look higher, but if it encounters resistance, it's advisable to take some profit first;
If it breaks below 2530, first look at 2504, if that fails, continue to look for around 2480 for support.

If it breaks through resistance, then look higher, but it may also experience prolonged fluctuations, so please consider the market and make trading judgments based on key positions.

$ETH Let's see if there is an opportunity to pull back to 2535 tonight.

$AAVE will share its situation soon