川三

Just posted a new thread for reference.

$BTC Morning Market Analysis (May 9)
Currently, BTC has been continuously pushing up, standing above the $103,000 mark, and is approaching the previous high and the upper edge of the Premium zone.
At this time, BTC should no longer be treated as the main trading variety, but rather as a reference line for structural rhythm.

✅ What is truly worth searching for are other coins that are still in the 'mid-stage accumulation,' which may provide better rhythm and cost-performance ratio.

🔍 BTC Script Analysis (For Reference Only)
✅ Script A: Pullback and then up (Secondary Plan)
Condition: Hold above the 101,800 area HL;

Action: If 15m / 3m forms HL again, can try a light long position;

Target: 105,000 – 106,000;

⚠️ Need to guard against: Current momentum is starting to slow down, OBV has shown signs of divergence.

❌ Script B: Surge and then retreat (Currently the main push)
Condition: Break below 102,500 + volume CHoCH;

Action: Validate short position with a light position, take profit target 100,500 / 99,200;

Underlying Logic: Heavy positions held by large players + polarization of long and short ratios, main forces have the incentive to create a washout.

📌 Summary in one sentence:

BTC is no longer the best offensive direction today; we do not become 'popular followers,' but instead become discoverers of the next rhythm.

$SOL This wave of increase is not the main rising phase, but the 'short squeeze phase'.
Retail investors are firing on all cylinders, while the main forces are still sitting idle.

Just look at the data and you will understand:

💥 Short positions liquidated > 30 million, Funding across the board has turned positive;

📉 CVD divergence, the main forces are not actively buying, just 'pushing you all up';

📈 Open interest is rising, but there is no clear rhythm of 'building positions at a low + increasing volume'.

So now that SOL hasn't surged, it's actually good news.

🚀 There will be a follow-up increase.

As long as:

The main forces start to exert force, with OB area support + HL structure;

Or after a washout, capital flows back, and CVD turns around, only then will the bulls officially start.

I will continue to observe,
Waiting for the main forces to take action.

Don't rush, we won't seize the climax, we wait for the right moment.

🥷 If you want to see the rhythm shift in real-time, remember to follow me.

Why didn't today's $SOL explode?

📜 Summary in one sentence
On the surface strong, but in reality hesitant. It's not that there isn't money to push, but rather 'those who should have run didn't run, and those who want to chase are still waiting'.

📈 Structurally: It has shown the 'most likely to explode' appearance
From the 3-hour view, SOL has completed:

BOS confirmation;

Two HL supports;

Breaking above the previous high of 154, daily confirmation of HH structure established;

RSI and OBV diverging in the same direction, all momentum indicators are open;

It belongs to the textbook 'trend internal explosion point'. But the problem is — it actually didn't explode.

💥 Why didn't it explode? Let's look at several key data signals:
1️⃣ CVD vs trading volume is severely diverging
Trading volume has significantly increased (Coinglass shows: today's trading volume is 3.35 billion),

but CVD has not increased synchronously, indicating that the spot/contract buy orders are weak, showing that 'what pushed it up were withdrawn orders, not buyers'.

👉 The dealer didn't get the goods, so the market is fake.

2️⃣ Short positions have not completely exploded
Currently, SOL has 10.49 million USD in short liquidations within 24 hours, compared to 2.4 million USD in long liquidations,

although it seems like the shorts are losing, the issue is: there are still too many short orders left,

the position K-line shows: short positions are still maintained and have not truly exploded in a cascade.

👉 In other words: now the shorts are 'not believing in evil', and the dealer is too lazy to push hard.

3️⃣ Long funds have not kept up
The long-short ratio is as high as 1.79:1 (big holder position ratio),

but the funding rate is still close to 0 (0.0058%),

indicating that the longs have not opened new positions on a large scale but are eating the previous floating profit orders.

👉 The long position structure is old, wanting to surge but no one dares to jump in.

🎭 Market psychological portrait:
The shorts are 'not believing',

the longs are 'not daring',

the dealer is waiting, 'either you explode first, or I won’t pull up'.

✅ Conclusion:
Currently, SOL is in a typical blunt state of 'extremely strong structure + extremely weak data'.
It’s not that it can’t rise, but it lacks gunpowder.
Either another spike to sweep the shorts and then take off;
or simply wait for BTC to break out in direction and then rise accordingly.

📌 Operational suggestions (not investment advice):

Be cautious in chasing shorts unless it breaks below 151 to confirm CHoCH;

Temporarily hold off on chasing highs for longs, wait for the next HL + OB zone confirmation before participating.

【 $BTC Market Analysis｜Evening Edition on May 8】

Current Price: Around 99,800
Structure Level: 3H, 45m, 15m all maintain a bullish structure, consolidating at high levels

Key Ranges:
Support: 98,300 (if it pulls back without breaking, it leans strong)
Resistance: 100,500 (breakthrough will enter a new space)

🚀 Market Structure Overview
3-Hour Structure: Continuous boards HH → HL, currently approaching the previous high upper edge at the 100K psychological level; a solid HL has formed at the bottom.

45-Minute Rhythm: The rebound rhythm starting from 96,000 is very smooth, and there are currently no obvious signals of weakness.

15-Minute Rhythm: In the last two rounds of surge, there has been no pullback to the OB area, the main force is clearly “grabbing the rhythm,” aiming to create FOMO.

🔍 Data Observation
Contract Trading Volume +17%, Open Interest +8.39%, indicating that capital is continuously entering the market.

Liquidation Data: Over 21.87 million USD in short positions liquidated within 4 hours, and the market has squeezed shorts for two consecutive rounds.

Funding Rate: Slightly positive (+0.0026), but bulls are not showing extreme; indicating that the trend can still be sustained.

Large Holder Long/Short Ratio (Binance): Large holder position ratio 1.30, with bulls in the majority.

🔍 Trading Scenario Simulation
✅ Scenario A: Strong Continuation
Trigger Condition: Stabilize above 98,300
Trading Method: Pull back to a small OB + HL confirmation can attempt to chase long

Target Range: 100,000 – 101,500

Warning Point: If there is a continuous increase in volume at high levels after a sharp rise and no new highs are made, beware of a false breakout turning weak.

⚠️ Scenario B: False Breakout Turning Weak
Trigger Condition: Break below 98,300 + OBV Divergence + CHoCH

Trading Method: After forming LH + CHoCH on 15m/3m, short on rebound, set stop loss above the previous high.

Target Range: Retrace to the 96,800 – 97,200 range

🎯 Trading Tips
✅ The current scenario leans towards “power accumulation breakthrough,” but beware of sudden pullbacks after a high-level peak.
📉 All reverse signals are currently only for taking profits/observation and should not be used as a basis for counter-trading.

I woke up at 5 o'clock today, and logically the market shouldn't be this 'calm'.

At the opening, BTC's structure was biased towards strong expectations, and I had already set the script: only go long, don't try to guess the top.

But when it came time to actually open a position— I got stuck.

According to the original logic, I needed to wait for a 3-minute structure + pullback to OB + momentum divergence + CHoCH resonance before entering; but today it didn’t give you a complete pullback rhythm, it just started, and I missed it. Very frustrating.

💥 So I did three things:

Gave up chasing orders, refused FOMO;

Spent the whole morning focusing on studying the execution chain of the alarm system;

Reconstructed my entry execution strategy.

Now, I have clarified this rhythm:

First set the script, then determine the direction, and finally set a 3-minute alarm to monitor the rhythm, opening a position when the four signals resonate.

This is a system upgrade gained from a 'miss'.

$BTC Trend Summary in One Sentence (May 8)
98,300 is the bottom line for bulls today.

⚡️If the price stabilizes at the support zone of 98,300–98,400,

⚡️and shows HL + CHoCH + OBV divergence on the 15-minute or 3-minute level,

⚡️then there is a chance to continue pushing towards the range of 99,200 - 100,000, or even possibly 'burst through' directly.

Hold on, keep pushing;

🥷If it can't hold, then it's the end of the trap and time to wash out.

Current structure leans bullish, the script is strong, and in the short term, only one thing to do:
👉 Watch if 98,300 can hold.

If there are no extreme black swan events tonight, $BTC is very likely to hit around 99,000 within the next 12 hours, and even briefly break 100,000.

But pay attention to the rhythm:

The first segment may spike to 97,600-98,400 to form a short-term lure;

The second segment is when it will 'really break through' or even 'surprise' that one.

PARTI Structure Note

$PARTI Current price is testing the previous HL at 0.1959. No confirmed breakdown yet.

If we see a late-night wick, the 0.19–0.20 zone could act as key support.

Unless there's a black-swan event, a straight dump to 0.1399 is highly unlikely.

$PARTI Structure Reminder

The current position is just above the test low HL (0.1959). It is not advisable to panic before it breaks.

Tonight, if there is a spike down and a pullback, the 0.19–0.20 range may become a key defense zone. Unless there is extreme negative news, the probability of dropping to the previous low of 0.1399 is very low.

Tonight's market, don't get carried away.

🎲 20:00–22:00 is the emotional warming period, where the main players love to create false signals to lure in buyers/sellers.
🎲 01:30–02:30 is the announcement release window, don't chase trades, wait for the text.
🎲 02:30–03:30 is Powell's speech, the volatility is highest, watch DXY and US Treasury yield trends.

If you are trading contracts, this evening is suitable for 'seeing clearly before taking action', don't let the volatility throw you off.

I'll take a nap during the day, see the real situation tonight🌚
#FOMC

$BTC $ETH

Unmoving like a mountain, is to move like thunder.

The longer it stays horizontal, the harder it strikes.
That kind of market where "a single candlestick confuses everyone" is coming soon.

What you need to do is not to predict, but to —
stay alive. Don't die early.

$PARTI : A glance at Ding Zhen, a second to collapse

I thought he could go further, but it turned out he was premature.
The structure looks very healthy, but as soon as it rises, it crashes down with CHoCH + BOS, all crashing down for you to see.

📈 Key level directly broken, 15m confirms LL;
📈 RSI momentum collapses, OBV follows with a dive;
📈 The rising structure just formed is slapped back down, a typical 'fake-out pump'.

🎯 What to do next?
Wait for it to drop to the strong support range of $0.238–$0.221, to see if a new HL is built;
Or wait for a reversal structure + OB divergence on the 3m / 15m before considering a reversal to go long.

$PARTI has the risk of a market crash, set a stop-loss properly

$SUI
等两天，听清锣声，再进场——那时候才是真正的“天机动了”。

一、走势结构判断：多空都没死，方向未明
🔍 结构节奏梳理

3h图上出现了“LL → LH → LL → LH”的反弹节奏，但还没突破前高（3.47附近），上方还是明显的供给带压制。

45m与15m有明显的结构BOS与HL抬高，反弹是有动能确认的，但3h级别仍处于下跌趋势中段的“回抽阶段”。

🧭 当前更可能是：

剧本 A：震荡反弹 → 吸引追多 → 后续再扫一轮流动性 → 真正启动；

而剧本 B：直接反转走V型强反的概率暂不大——目前的3h节奏还缺一个“更高低点 + CHoCH”。

二、数据提示：情绪平衡，爆仓释放后空头占优

合约成交量 +55%，持仓量 +14% → 明显热度回升；

多空比1.04～1.3+区间浮动 → 偏多情绪仍在，但已非极端；

24小时多空爆仓金额几乎对半，而且持仓资金费率波动趋平 → 表示情绪已经从“极端”走向“博弈”；

Funding Rate 减弱 + OI 放缓 + 成交放大，结合价格未破结构，典型的“主力在找下一波筹码结构点”。

总结判断
🔍主力没有彻底做空的意图，因为还在维护结构，不断制造 HL；
🔍 也没打算让人轻松上车，因为位置靠近结构临界区（3.47–3.55），一突破就面临3.77供给区；
⏳ 方向未出清，但动能重新在积蓄中，等待更明确结构变化或一次“插针”来破局。

The bulls are not done, and the main force has not loosened control

The recent surge was just a warm-up.

From a structural perspective, the bullish rhythm of PARTI remains healthy, with complete upward structures in 3h and 45m that have not been broken, and the pullback is nearing completion. The key support is around 0.285, which has not been breached.

On the funding side, both the contract open interest and trading volume have expanded simultaneously, and currently, long positions are still generally profitable—there's no reason for the big players to dump the market at this moment; they will only choose to consolidate and wash out floating profits, or even directly lure in more buyers before launching another wave.

⏳ Focus Area:

Support: 0.285–0.29 (if held, another wave may rise from a high position)

Resistance: 0.34–0.38 (previous high & emotional release point)

In the short term, the bulls still have some strength; in the medium term, the main upward segment may not be over yet.

Stay steady and don't rush; the next move will be signaled by the big players.

Use structure to analyze the market, it's hard to capture in volatile conditions, but prices that are about to move can still be monitored.
$PARTI

$PARTI

📊 图表特征分析：

3小时结构：走出了 HL → HH → HL → HH，节奏连贯，主力控盘稳。

日线形态：刚刚打出第二个LH，有机会演变成更高结构，进入“图穷匕见”阶段。

45分钟结构：震荡上升台阶式BOS结构 + 流动性清洗确认，底部极限诱空后再拉升，标准主力剧本。

📊 数据侧：

OI暴涨 + 空头爆仓，典型洗空再起飞；

Funding Rate 为负，说明多头不是FOMO情绪，是资金实配；

Volume激增 + Top Trader 多单大幅领先。

🔍结论：这是主力主动建仓 + 强节奏控盘 + 二浪启动中。

个人观点，可以密切关注。

$SUI

Sometimes, the candlestick chart doesn't speak, but the position does.
The equilibrium zone is not for show; it's what the big players use to set up their games—
low cost, stable control, and it can easily trick a batch of chips.

So now that the price is close to here, there's no need to panic or act impulsively.
The time hasn't come yet, the direction hasn't emerged, and the opportunity will take a few more days to reveal itself.

At this stage, it's difficult to operate; the direction is unclear. We wait for the big players to take action.
The real "that move" is still ahead.

Time can also be a reference; last time the disagreement was resolved in over 10 days.

Sui is actually not easy to play; the dealers are quite cunning. Currently, you can pay attention to ETH.