TraderS 缺德道人

Today is the first day of June, and the market is relatively dull. Let's look back at the performance of previous Junes to see if we can draw any useful insights. Since 2013, overall, in these 12 years, Bitcoin has had 4 increases and 8 decreases in June, with an average return of -4.98%. Among them, the largest decline was in June 2022, reaching -37.28%, while the largest increase was in June 2016, at +27.14%. If we only look at data after 2020, there has only been one increase in 2023. The overall poor performance in June may be related to the traditional financial market's 'summer slump', where reduced liquidity amplifies price fluctuations. In recent years, June has required special attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2 AM on June 19 and the subsequent implementation and fluctuations related to Trump's tariff war and other policies.

In the Sino-U.S. trade war, everyone is paying attention to the various movements of the demand side, which is the U.S. side. However, recently the attacking side, which is the domestic electric vehicle battle, has become increasingly intense, especially after the accident involving the Xiaomi SU7. Competitors like Huawei have been fiercely targeting Xiaomi, making it seem like the company's spokesperson aged ten years during the last press conference, even mispronouncing lines. Dongzi's previous evaluation of the spokesperson's marketing abilities has also been repeatedly brought up. Yesterday, an automotive industry association issued an anti-involution initiative, and today the People's Daily commented that a price war should not be fought. This indicates that the chaotic situation in the automotive industry has reached a point where higher authorities must intervene to stabilize it.

However, the siege against Xiaomi may not have been accomplished in a day. In recent years, Xiaomi has offended traditional white goods manufacturers, including Midea and Gree, as well as smartphone manufacturers like OPPO and Vivo. When reaching the last link in the industry chain, Xiaomi failed to promptly adjust its original heavy marketing strategy and was caught off guard by long-held grievances from competitors who seized on issues like false advertising in air intake systems and exaggerated claims about autonomous driving. It is unclear whether the spokesperson drew inspiration from a question on Zhihu that asked, 'How can Wu Qian obtain a pardon to turn the public opinion around?' with the answer being 'Successfully develop advanced process chips,' and hurriedly launched the Xuanjie O1 chip in an attempt to regain public favor. However, it is evident that this move has limited effectiveness, as the public is questioning why such an advanced chip development did not show any signs during the peak of the trade war, and now, facing a public relations crisis, it is suddenly announced—could it be a ploy to salvage reputation with Qualcomm's rebranded products?

After so many years of convenience, it is time for him to go through that barrier.

Just yesterday I praised Ethereum, and it softened overnight. It looks like it's preparing to break below EMA20 today. The doomsday vehicle has never disappointed people.

Although Ethereum's fake breakout failed the day before yesterday, it has shown slightly stronger performance than Bitcoin during this wave of decline. However, we cannot hastily conclude that Ethereum has already strengthened, especially since Bitcoin is still just undergoing a structural regular correction. We cannot rule out the possibility of a sudden drop in Bitcoin leading to an oversold situation for Ethereum. After all, Ethereum has been stagnating for a whole year.

If Ethereum continues to remain strong after this wave of Bitcoin's adjustment, I will consider shifting from the previous strategy of 'going long on Bitcoin, going short on Ethereum' to 'going long on Ethereum, going short on SOL', in hopes of benefiting from a rebound in the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Of course, this is just a preliminary plan at the moment, and its successful implementation will still depend on the development of future trends.

Today let's take a look at Big Cake 102, the position of Ethereum 2450, prepare to go long if it reaches that point.

James is only 300U away from liquidation!\nCurrent holdings: 4604 BTC, average price: 108,334.7, liquidation price: 106,340, total market value: 490 million, floating loss: 7.4 million. In just one week, he lost 80,000 WU. What could he not do with this money?

Key levels of the daily chart

Looking at the weekly line, this needs to go to 3250 ah

Ethereum is really strong, continuously operating above the middle of the Bollinger Bands, feels like it's about to break through at any moment, should I cut my short position or not... If it breaks through, then I'll cut it.

Combined with the U.S. International Trade Court's ruling on Wednesday to halt Trump's tariffs and Trump's fury when asked about the "TACO deal" on Wall Street, the topic of the tariff war seems to be losing its positive momentum after the initial excitement. The sentiment should also be gradually coming to an end, which is reflected in the current market situation.

The next shift in the market will depend on whether it is a continuation of the upward trend or a peak correction, largely resting on Trump's shoulders. However, judging from Musk's departure and criticism, he seems quite pessimistic about future deficit taxes and other related issues.

The first drop below the price channel after the large pancake on the 4.9

Since I started shorting with Xiao Guizi in '95, my daily routine has turned into crying in each other's arms. Eight hundred analysis directions in a day—typical people teach others ineffectively, while practical knowledge can be learned in no time. My trading mindset and techniques have greatly improved in a short period. Even Guilin has learned the night pot theory; as long as it's useful, any system can be applied to assess win rates, which makes me worry that I've mixed up all my knowledge. Fortunately, aside from the silly James, there's not much liquidity in the market now. It resembles a big pancake rising before waiting for the U.S. stock market, so when it goes down, it might be similar? (This point has a determinism aspect; please consider cautiously). If we don't find a way out soon, the two of us might become the king of sorcery, integrating everything from macro to micro, from theory to technique, from science to metaphysics, and directly leaving the solar system to venture into the stars and universe...

In short, although the pancake has exceeded expectations a bit, it's still following the rules overall, so there's no need to worry. Ether is rather crazy, making it difficult for both longs and shorts. External market liquidity entering through stablecoin legislation will take time, and it seems that internal liquidity is all enslaved by ALPHA. Let's quietly wait for the market to feel it can easily grasp the backlash after handling President Chuan, but holding onto short positions for too long is exhausting mentally. Next time, I really won't do it again; after all, being long in a bull market and short in a bear market is the normal state of this market.

It feels like the current market bulls are preparing to eliminate James's positions before rising, not allowing him to ride the wave for free. He was very close to being liquidated. Although he wasn't liquidated, he had to close many positions to supplement his margin, reducing his holdings from over 700 million to 550 million USD. The current liquidation price is 107,980 USD.

Just now, Giant Leek James reduced his position around 1077, currently holding a total of 3375 bitcoins, with an average price of $110,084.9. The liquidation price has dropped to $105,960. The total market value is 360 million, temporarily facing an unrealized loss of 3.76 million. At the moment he closed his position, reversing and taking the opposite position should be a high-win-rate ultra-short strategy.

The pancake is still very hard at the moment, and it is difficult to drop to the right shoulder position before breaking the price channel of 107000.