Introduction:
1. US officials press Powell to resign
2. The US House of Representatives is expected to vote early next week on the Senate-proposed (GENIUS Act)
3. On the 10th, BTC ETF had a huge inflow of 1.175 billion, ETH ETF inflow of 383 million
4. Upexi, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPXI) announced the completion of two rounds of financing, totaling $200 million for the purchase of SOL
5. Pump for arbitrage, lower leverage, fully fund the contract margin, which can greatly reduce risk, and still eat the corresponding arbitrage profits.
One. Macroeconomic market
(1) Traditional market
1. US stocks: Nasdaq down 0.22%, S&P down 0.33%, Dow down 0.63%, Circle down 7.67%
2. US Treasuries, US Dollar: 10-year US Treasuries rose 1.54% to 4.42%, DXY rose 0.30% to 97.87
4. Gold: Gold rises 0.74% to 3354.7
(2) Policy trends
1. Federal Reserve-related
(1) Chuanzi reiterates that he will not fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
(2)
(3) Regulatory dynamics
1. The SEC has suspended Grayscale's plan to convert its digital large-cap fund into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) and placed it under further review.
(2) Trump is expected to achieve his first significant legislative victory in cryptocurrency policy next week. House Republicans are preparing to pass a bill previously submitted to the Senate to establish new regulatory rules for stablecoins.
The US House of Representatives is expected to vote early next week on the Senate-proposed (GENIUS Act). This act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for so-called 'stablecoins' pegged to the dollar in the US. The bill was passed in the Senate last month with bipartisan support and is expected to become the first significant cryptocurrency regulatory measure adopted by the US Congress.
Two, market review
1. Market data:
Altcoin index reaches 30
2. Stablecoin USDC inflow of 668 million
3. ETF data: On the 10th, BTC ETF had a huge inflow of 1.175 billion, ETH ETF inflow of 383 million
Sol ETF inflow of 10.7 million
4. Institutional dynamics
(1) The Ethereum Foundation confirmed on the X platform the sale of 10,000 ETH to 'ETH Version MicroStrategy' Sharplink Gaming, stating that the proceeds from the sale of ETH will be used for core operations and activities.
Following the announcement of the Ethereum Foundation's acquisition of 10,000 ETH, the Sharplink Gaming address received these 10,000 ETH from the Ethereum Foundation address 10 minutes ago. A total of 232,000 ETH has been purchased, with an average purchase price of about $2,615, currently showing a floating profit of $84.25 million.
(2) Upexi, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPXI) announced the completion of two rounds of financing, totaling $200 million. The company issued common stock at $4 per share, raising about $50 million; at the same time, it issued $150 million in convertible bonds with an annual interest rate of 2%, maturing in 24 months, with a conversion price of $4.25 per share.
This financing will significantly enhance Upexi's Solana (SOL) holdings, and it is expected that after the transaction is completed, the company will hold about 1.65 million SOL, more than double the previously disclosed 735,000 SOL.
(3) Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that the rise in Bitcoin prices is mainly due to increased demand and limited supply, with companies and ETFs making large purchases. He expects Bitcoin to exceed $200,000 by the end of the year, driven by accelerated inflow of funds from institutions and companies.
(4) @Coinbase changed its X profile picture to Pengu NFT
Three, industry hotspots
(1) Reflection on pump arbitrage
1. First, let's look at m, as an obscure launch platform, FDV increased from a market value of 500 million to 7 billion.
2. Thinking about the pump contracts
(1) Now, the pump contract price is glaringly about 30% higher than the public offering price, which will undoubtedly attract a large amount of short-selling capital.
(2) After the public offering is completed, there will be a vacuum period of 48 hours+
(3) Is it possible that during this vacuum period, pump directly doubles the contract price, causing a significant short squeeze
(4) Risks are as follows (analyzed by GPT)
3. Current market data
Hyprtliquid contract position of 100 million
Binance contract position of 35 million
Bybit contract position of 170 million
4. The script of the dealer may be
Time
Operation
Target
Two days before public offering
Monitor contract position heatmap, grasp empty warehouse density and liquidation zones
Positioning arbitrage stop-loss points
One day before public offering
Release news on how to arbitrage pump externally
Attract users to short pre-market contracts at $0.005
Stage after public offering completion
Stable pre-market contract price around $0.005
Attract users to participate in public offerings, attract arbitrage users to participate in public offerings
One day after public offering
Tokens not unlocked
Joint KOLs, publicity amounts disappear in seconds + major benefits, violently pulling up pre-market contracts
Burst some short accounts
Two days after public offering
Tokens about to unlock
Go short + wait for spot unlock
Achieve profit targets for short positions before token unlock
5. If doing arbitrage, lower leverage, fully fund the contract margin, which can greatly reduce risk, and still eat the corresponding arbitrage profits.
6. Other KOL opinions
2. Hot events
According to Jupiter data panel, in the past 24 hours, in the market share ranking of Solana issuance platforms, pump.fun ranks first with 48.7%, while Letsbonk ranks second with 39.7%.
Four, alpha
1.
Old Black Arthur: After Bitcoin's new high, the next is Ethereum.
Dove Eugene: Ethereum stabilizes at 2800, heading straight for 4000.
2. Important institutional holdings in ETH, currently Grayscale still holds nearly $5.1 billion of ETH
Sbet's ETH holdings are about to surpass the Ethereum Foundation
3. Borrowing KOL charts (MVRV seeking a sword)
The bottom of this wave of corrections is marked at the end of June
The top of the next wave of market is marked in mid-August
The next wave of correction is marked at the end of August to early September
The final bull peak is marked from mid-September to mid-October
https://x.com/0xCryptoChan/status/1937054912371949854