Introduction Why is becoming consistently profitable as a trader so hard? Entering a trade in a clear uptrend only to see it fail. What did you miss? A successful market analysis requires the analyst to clearly define the trend, momentum, and structure of the market. These three pillars, when analyzed in combination, will allow you to trade in favorable conditions. Increasing the likelihood of profitable trades and guarding against overtrading. The biggest mistake many traders make is using indicators or tools that signal the same thing. Either trend, momentum, or structure — but not all three. For example, some traders combine moving averages with trend lines as their trade setup. Others pair #Bollinger Bands, based on moving averages, with trend lines or, worse, layer multiple #MovingAverages averages or exponential moving averages, focusing too narrowly on trends without considering momentum or market structure. While these tools, categorized as lagging indicators excel at identifying specific pillars, combined they don’t address all three pillars successfully. This article introduces these three pillars, explains the best tools and indicators, lagging and leading, to identify each pillar and demonstrates how they work together to create high-probability trade opportunities with optimal timing. I will use #bitcoin current price action to explain. First Pillar -Trend This is the easiest term to explain and also the easiest to identify on a chart. A trend is the general direction of price. An Uptrend is a series of higher highs paired with higher lows. The opposite is true for a Down trend. Best Tools to use to identify this on a chart -Trend lines. Drawing a simple line connecting the low’s or highs will give you a clear picture of how price is behaving, as illustrated below.
-Moving Averages. For example, when a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) plots above the 50-period SMA, and both are pointing upward, this confirms an uptrend.
Here’s the Catch Traders fall in to this analysis trap by assigning more meaning and value to these lines than they deserve. Understand that the market can have a rest, this can look like a trend breaking and then continue going higher, as shown below.
At this stage it should be obvious that these lines and indicators are lagging in nature. You first have to wait for the move to occur, before you can get actionable information from them. Most indicators are classified as lagging indicators, like Bollinger bands, moving averages and even exponential moving averages, to name a few. You should only use them to identify the market trend. Once the trend is clear, the next step is to confirm momentum(second pillar) to time your trade effectively. Second Pillar — Momentum Identifying momentum is more challenging, and several theories address this, the most popular being Wyckoff theory, Elliot Wave Theory, and Gann Theory. While it’s impossible to simplify the aforementioned theories into a single paragraph, I’ll focus on identifying momentum using the RSI. The best indicator to identify momentum The Relative Strength Index. (RSI) This is a leading indicator indicating what will happen as opposed to a lagging indicator showing what have happened. It’s extremely simple to learn and understand. The RSI forms pivot points (shown as red circles). This happens when a local high or low is being established. By comparing these pivot points to the closing price, traders can spot divergences. The most critical divergence is the hidden bullish divergence (momentum divergence) in favor of the current trend. How does Hidden Bullish divergence work? This occurs in an uptrend ,when the price does not make a lower low, but the RSI retraces and makes a lower low. This signals momentum entering the market, absorbing supply (buyers stepping in to drive prices higher), and increasing the likelihood of trend continuation.
Only after identifying the trend (in this case being up) and momentum (having hidden bullish divergence) can a trader apply trade strategies. This leads to the third pillar namely structure. Defining market structure ensures you trade in the right context. Third Pillar — Structure Once the trend is established and momentum is confirmed, traders can give structure to the chart and apply their trading setup. Market structure refers to how price behaves, such as consolidating near support or breaking out of a range. Use RSI pivots to identify support and resistance levels within this context.
In the case of the image above, there is a bull trend, because there is no lower low in price. There is bullish momentum as the RSI on each retrace attempt is making a lower low. Seek long entries at support for as long as the uptrend and bullish momentum conditions are met. A well-defined market structure prevents overtrading and reduces the risk of trading against the trend, or even worse in a lateral market where price hunts for liquidity (sideways market where price moves to trigger stop orders, causing losses). By mastering trend, momentum, and structure, you can build high-probability trading setups. Practice these pillars on a demo account with tools like TradingView to boost your consistency and profitability.
With #Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, altcoins like #Solana and #Ethereum appear weaker. Is this the early exit signal, or does the market need more time before everything pumps again?
Going live to share what I know and how to prepare: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P3M5RxGHoc