shun_cchen

Are there drawdowns in assets?

Every economic cycle is a transfer of wealth

There is luck
There is awareness
And there is courage

Some people around me retire in their 20s
While others go bankrupt in their 30s

Speculation is particularly cruel
But behind the emotions

It is filled with those truly vibrant life stories
There are peaks and valleys

#這也是投機市場有趣的地方 $BTC $SOL

This time the black swan clearly did not drop as much as the previous times
Why could it kill so many people?

Mainly two points

1. Bitcoin's feeling of reaching 100,000 suggests a certain future trend
There are a large number of players and veteran investors

Putting a large amount of positions in ETH
And many people in Taiwan also put a lot of positions in ADA
Many of those who put money in ADA joined in 2022
Using leverage can increase profits
But one must also bear risks

This time, malicious liquidation + market manipulation
Led to 700,000 people being liquidated + 10 billion USD being consumed by the whales

Whether this time was orchestrated by Trump is unknown

Because once the funds are transferred to Coinbase Prime
We cannot understand how they are used

This time, many of the liquidated positions were low leveraged ADA or ETH

2. The widespread discussion on social media and the number of new entrants

With the election of the U.S. President
His promises at the Bitcoin conference were magnified and scrutinized

Abolishing CBDC, appointing the SEC chairman
Listing Bitcoin as a national reserve asset

This also made countless newcomers want to enter this market to make money

Most people have not experienced
The time when all tokens collectively
Dropped 30-40% in a day

Therefore, with social media spreading leverage + the media's exaggerated explanations
Many people and stories appeared before us through algorithms

In summary: I feel that this black swan in 203
Is about the risk awareness of new friends
And the awakening of the understanding of veteran investors

The world is still moving forward
Retail investors who believe in the narrative
Are buried in the long river of history $ETH
#以太坊现货ETF连续净流入 #比特币盘整将持续多久？ #微策略募资支持比特币战略 #ETH再度冲击4K $BTC

In the European and American regions, by Tate, Iman, Lukeblemar
Those internet marketing or personal branding masters

Slowly bringing people into the crypto space

From Iman's assets, most are cryptocurrencies and watches
Tate says he has a thousand BTC
Lukeblemar directly started a free community

These marketing gurus are slowly introducing these things
Through massive online traffic

Delving into the realities of teenagers
To be honest, there are pros and cons

Just like the young people entering the market

Some really get rich, earning millions of dollars
Through this round of meme coin trends

Following smart money, joining alpha groups
Participating in early narratives

Or judging narratives
And using on-chain tools to find the traces of whales

Indeed, there are people in this market who can make money
But it might only be 10%

In the crypto space, there are so-called Degen plays and Beta plays
The most stable Beta play is to earn money during cycles

The crypto space has fixed bull and bear transition cycles
Beta is also the safest way to make money by buying the dip in a bear market

In a bull market, sell in batches
And earn interest in exchanges or financial tools

Or yield farming, for example, Binance alpha
Can be considered a game that everyone can play

But of course, the more people play, the less profit there will be
This type of play is also the most suitable for the masses

Next is the Degen play

A zero-sum game where nine die for every one that lives
The last person standing

Usually has extreme luck
Or has extreme talent

But usually, those who engage in Degen plays
Will eventually see their assets go to zero

But this is also the belonging of most people

Using contracts as gambling
Using meme coins as lottery

This type of play
Requires finding systematic opportunities from emotional events

This is nearly impossible for ordinary people to achieve

Going against human nature sounds simple
But it is really difficult to execute

But along the way, I've really seen too many friends under 30

Getting rich, like when Trump took office, a friend went long on Dogecoin

Earning over 8 million, now he’s basically retired from the space

I've also seen people lose their entire fortune with high leverage

Investing hundreds of thousands into Squirrel Coin
Or shorting Bitcoin with high leverage

Some are logical
Some are illogical

This market is really crazy

But it’s the reality of cutthroat competition
Like Texas Hold'em and a real game between dealers and retail investors

Of course, I also dislike binary thinking

In the crypto space, besides Degen and Beta plays

There is also another group of people, and that is arbitrageurs

#币安HODLer空投SOPH #币安Alpha上新 #币安钱包TGE #比特币2025大会

I heard SBF will be released early in 2044
I wonder what he will think

It's quite emotional to be ultimately squeezed out
FTX perished before the bear market revived

If it had been saved back then
Of course, the market still has safety issues

But the richest will definitely be SBF
Because he invested in a lot of quality projects during the bear market

I hope the world in 2044 won't turn into cyberpunk
#FTX

Dream Journal ---- irregularly recording dreams - May 3rd

I just dreamed that I returned home

Singing on the scooter and thinking as I passed by both sides
I seemed to see a classmate from Zhangzhong playing claw machines
When I was about to get home

I encountered a tall, chubby boy who asked me about the education system and whether I wanted to go to university after senior year

I told him that in Taiwan's system after high school
You can decide whether to take the exam or not

But most Taiwanese still look at university degrees
I guess I will still take the exam
Then he went home too

Nodded and greeted the neighbor on the other side of the house

Then the fence at the entrance of my home was raised quite a bit

There was still music coming from both sides of the entrance
I thought it was the neighbor talking about the piano again

It turned out that our sound system was broken
No matter how I fixed it, I couldn't get it right

Suddenly I heard sounds from upstairs, it turned out to be my brother and mom
The sound of my sister discussing

At that moment I was wondering weren't they still playing?
Suddenly I remembered they seemed to call me to go back to handle something first

Anyway, it seemed like they said to go home together
Later they seemed to be handling something upstairs

I was still messing with the sound system and the VCR

They told me to stop messing around
The music was playing from them

Then they told me to play it, and I woke up

U.S. Treasuries
Have become a 'risk factor that cannot be ignored' for the insurance industry

Must diversify asset allocation more

Most insurance companies in Taiwan primarily rely on long-term bond yields
To support policy interest spreads

According to the existing economic model, U.S. Treasuries are declining and the dollar is depreciating
Emerging market currencies are appreciating

This further expands the hedging costs of U.S. Treasuries
And the market's narrative regarding the current state of the dollar

#美債 #非农就业数据来袭 #数字资产法案

The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is beneficial for imports and consumption in the short term

But it poses challenges for Taiwan's export-oriented economy

I find it hard to believe that just five days ago it was 1:32.3 and now it's 30.6

The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar indicates a surge of foreign capital into Taiwan's capital market
And in the short term, it may bring about a wave of increases

Furthermore, it promotes domestic demand and the consumption market
Because the New Taiwan Dollar has become more powerful in terms of purchasing

But what really worries me is the negative net worth issue related to the Ruentex Group's Nanshan Life Insurance back in the day

Taiwan's life insurance companies are one of the major buyers of U.S. Treasuries globally

With the New Taiwan Dollar appreciating
The investment returns on U.S. Treasuries will face pressure from 'exchange rate losses'

U.S. Treasuries are denominated in U.S. dollars
If the New Taiwan Dollar appreciates, converting it back to New Taiwan Dollars will result in book losses

The net worth and return rates of the life insurance industry face challenges

But it seems the appreciation is just the beginning; how will it proceed afterwards?
Will it continue to appreciate?

The market changes caused by capital in the short term
Will they long-term affect the foundation of this export-oriented country?
This is what I need to observe

Currently, expectations might lead to a large purchase of overseas emerging assets before interest rate cuts and the outflow of funds

Then slowly burst the bubbles overseas and guide the funds back to the U.S. dollar

To be honest, U.S. Treasuries
Have already become a 'risk factor that cannot be ignored' for the life insurance industry.
$BTC $ETH $XRP
#非农就业数据来袭 #台幣升值 #比特币战略储备

Building thoughts and things themselves belong to non-necessity

If we continue to indulge in that 95% of daily behavior

Then that 5% of influential action and change cannot happen

The self inherently likes to stay in the comfort zone

And I often indulge in that circle

We need to use some methods, such as manifestation, the law of attraction

Or intentionally remind ourselves in the morning, noon, and evening

To regularly see goals and actions

Behavior can only change gradually, not overnight

But this is not an excuse for not changing

The so-called journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step

And we can accumulate confidence from small daily matters

To slowly fill the mindset of giving up

Just like my initial state, although I gave up, I still managed my own media

Language or communication is the key to activate the brain

And thoughts are the elixir to change and influence others

Output emotions through words
Input rationality through insights

#我獨自升級 $BTC $BNB $XRP

#個人成長

Homo sapiens can be said to dominate all species

But why can Homo sapiens dominate all species?

From the brief history of humanity, we can understand

It lies in the ability to construct and disseminate stories
One person with a pair of hands × 100 people 100 pairs of hands

The construction of a story can be a religion
It can also be a deity, or possession, or leadership

The essence can be good, can be evil, or can be moral

Every Chinese character has its story
And every word may also have a story

Constructing things and thinking are the keys that drive human evolution
And the financial models and monetary systems in modern narratives

Are factors that prompt humanity to produce more and more inventions
And the arrival of AI may turn children into so-called prophets

There will be more and more children
Using the internet and AI for deep learning in their spare time

There will also be more and more children
Obsessed with the illusions of the internet and unable to extricate themselves

M-shaped → U-shaped

In the future, I believe there will be more and more geniuses
But our understanding of real things

May truly become just a piece of text
And the real scenery and beauty felt through actions

May truly only exist in the past

I still remember that path full of butterflies
Now there isn't a single butterfly on that path

The imagined cyber world comes from the past, where the population density in Kowloon, Hong Kong, was extremely high, with buildings stacked like honeycombs, wires intertwined, neon lights flickering, and a state of anarchy where street vendors and the underground economy coexisted

→ And the future of self and technology in disorder

May happen faster than I imagined
But we will also experience the most interesting story

#成為最有趣的歷史 #我獨自升級 #thinking $BTC $ETH $SOL

Cryptocurrency Narrative Iteration Acceleration

A field that adds another week of incomprehensible jargon
And this round also aligns with the rapid rotation of the so-called attention economy

After a pump, asset prices soar
But it's just the house allowing a few early participants to get rich
While most retail investors follow suit and buy in

Of course, if you encounter a better house or a better timing, like the meme coin that first launched on Binance in the initial days of Bome Bull

Even if I buy in under the circumstances where all the cryptocurrency people on Twitter are shouting to pump
I could still achieve five times the return

At this stage, with the trade war heating up and interest rate cuts not being implemented
The market has reached a critical moment of survival this week

Still believing that Trump will pump, one must reserve a portion of cash

Pumps at such moments are mostly what one calls quick pumps
Soaring to tens of millions of dollars in market value in a short time
Once on Matcha (Mexc), the dumping begins

The market no longer has excess funds to support the coin price
Most old players have already left with 100,000 USD

Currently, the market has no hot spots
Secondly, funds are too dispersed
Thirdly, the overall economic situation is unclear

One can only say that it is still very difficult to find opportunities and also hard to take action

#敘事 $BTC $SOL #思考

Damn, Dehua is really smart.

After shouting that ETH is really hot in the market

Bybit's entire hot wallet was stolen with 1.4 billion worth of ETH🤡🥲
This super low probability black swan...

I have to believe in the dark lamp

#钱包安全 $BTC
$ETH

Young people shouldn't just play with memes all day
You won't dare to brag in front of the elderly anymore. I've heard you young P-Generals are popularizing the Sennheiser plate, just sitting there, doing something with web3. We just dance and travel every day, open our phones and click on PI, 0 investment, now there's single coin A7, A8

So young people, what the heck are you actually playing with?

From now on, I won't be able to hold my head up in front of relatives
Relatives mining Pi coins are richer than us😭 Damn! #pi #pi幣

#币安上线LAYER

If I had known, I would have cried and picked up the opportunity to make money🥹

Good news Good news: If you have 1 ETH in FTX, you can get $2,500, the same price as in 2022. $ETH
#以太坊现货ETF连续净流入

Yesterday's CZ: Perhaps meme is a good track
Today's CZ: meme is a scam

I now simply call it the changeable AI
#ai #eth

The three parties will maintain together
this story

But discussing from each perspective
seems to have areas worth exploring #非农就业数据来袭 #比特币后市 #USDT

Ha.....7:30 saw me telling everyone not to buy 🤡
#土狗 #非洲 #CAR