Stephen Chow - PANICSELL

After 4 hits, currently $ETH has surpassed MA200 D, faked out once, what do you all think this time? 😂

Trend Accumulation Score - This chart classifies wallet address groups based on the amount of Bitcoin held (vertical axis) and accumulation trends, distributed over time (horizontal axis).

Dark Green (~1.0): Strong Accumulation
Dark Red (~0.0): Strong Distribution
Yellow/Orange: Neutral or Slightly Changing.

Looking at the chart, one can somewhat identify the medium and long-term trend of $BTC . From April to the present, there has been a trend of accumulation again; after these accumulation phases, the price usually increases.

One issue that many people do not understand clearly is that this on-chain indicator has a delay and deviation. For example, when a whale accumulates on a CEX from before, it is not until they withdraw to a wallet that the amount held increases and it starts to change color. Conversely, when $BTC deposits to the exchange, a decrease in holdings does not necessarily mean that it was sold at that moment; only the whale or market maker knows the specific buying and selling times. This is often used for on-chain marketing and misleading retailers regarding altcoins.

During the February-March period when the market crashed, I posted that the whale team and the big players were accumulating heavily, not just starting now 👍

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Major economic events this week (by date - VN time)

If PCE and Core PCE are expected to decrease significantly like this, then next month's CPI is very likely to decrease for the third consecutive month. The FED mainly monitors inflation through the Core PCE index, and the fact that inflation is on a downward trend indicates that the possibility of interest rate cuts is increasing, with the market predicting June => positive signals for the market in the coming months

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Read like a book 😂

I checked data $BTC and noticed a few things:

💥 OI (open interest) is gradually increasing from the bottom of 74k => it's not called FOMO yet, it shows that the market is warming up.

💥 The Long/Short ratio is decreasing from the range of 84-85k up to now => traders tend to Short more, partly due to Longs closing positions to take profits, while Shorts hold their positions and more people are jumping into Short.

💥 On the Spot BTC side, there is slightly more selling pressure than buying, possibly because traders who bought from lower levels are taking profits at resistance levels according to technical analysis. If the buying side absorbs all the selling pressure and continues to maintain buying strength, the price could definitely continue to rise.

💥 Checking many altcoins, most of the spots have larger buying force than selling and volume is increasing => confirming that the breakout is real, not a fakeout. This is a bullish signal for the near future.

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TOTAL3 frame retests old peak + pulls back above MA50 after breaking down 2 weeks ago. The D frame has formed a Falling Wedge pattern from early 2025 to the present, showing signs of wanting to breakout. This is often seen as a common bullish reversal pattern in technical analysis. The TOTAL chart is similar, while OTHERS are slightly worse because they do not account for the top 10 market cap, and those lower down will obviously drop more when the market crashes.

Altcoins, as previously updated, mostly escaped the downtrend channel and transitioned into an accumulation phase from March to early April + have shown reversal signals. This period feels quite similar to the bottom phase of August-September 2023 in terms of chart structure and market sentiment (it might even be worse).

I updated this last week, and now TOTAL3 has broken the downtrend wedge. Follow me for the earliest market updates at tradecoinsignalsvn (free)

It's not just a coincidence that I mentioned a reversal rate of 95% on April 10. With the current chart, unless there is some unexpected news, this correction bottom has likely been established at 74k, the daily chart has surpassed EMA200, touched the EMA89 resistance, and is looking to break through the cloud.

Last week, it moved sideways around 28,576,280,792 VND in the range of 83-86k, the H4 Bollinger Bands are tightening, and this morning it started to open up and break the resistance around 85-86k => this area now becomes support. Usually, when the Bollinger Bands open in one direction, the price will tend to move in that direction as well; I also mentioned the timing of strong volatility at the beginning of this week in the chat channel a few days ago.

In the European afternoon session and the American evening session, the market will open on Monday. Those trading futures can wait to see how the market reacts. If there is a correction around 86k, it would be a good opportunity to enter alts. Moderate to low volume with distant TP/SL will be easier to profit in this phase.

This post was published yesterday; follow me for the earliest market updates at tradecoinsignalsvn (free)

36,423,037,200

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- Supply of $BTC on the exchange reached its lowest level in 7 years => low selling pressure, trending towards accumulation.

- Short-term holders are cutting losses on BTC while long-term holders are continuously accumulating.

- Whales holding over 10k BTC have also shifted to accumulation since March. The sperm whales I monitor are also gathering strongly.

- Hashrate continuously breaks ATH = the cost of mining 1 BTC is increasing. Miners are currently only making slight profits and there is no significant selling pressure from miners.

- DXY continues to decline and has breached the 100 mark, this index has a negative correlation with assets like Gold and BTC. Gold has continuously broken its peak, BTC has not yet but usually will follow gold in a phase.

- The total supply of stablecoins has been continuously increasing, money has been minted heavily from the beginning of the year until now; in the medium to long term, this index has a positive correlation with BTC.

- I checked most on-chain indicators which all show no signals of a cycle peak yet. The recent phase has been a light distribution - accumulation phase for BTC. Altcoins' indicators are all at societal bottoms, hell 😁 This phase resembles the bottom of the Downtrend in August-September 2023 more than the correction phase in 2024.

- The total amount of capital raised in the crypto market in Q1 2025 has reached 60% of the total capital raised in the entire year of 2024.
The market dumped heavily in Q1, but funds and market makers poured a lot of capital into projects; usually during a Downtrend, the market is very bleak and not many projects can raise significant capital, most are silent => something smells 😉

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81453379677 Currently still in a downtrend, the price is below the 3 EMA lines on the daily chart and has approached the channel + upper EMA several times but has always been rejected.
The weekly W candle last week + the daily D candle on April 2nd closed quite poorly, so further monitoring is needed. If only looking at technical analysis, the possibility of a drop to sweep the bottom again is there, with levels at 75k, around the old peak of 72k or deeper at 6x.
It's just that currently the signals indicate a clear possibility of decline, almost everyone is looking down, the level around 70k - 6x will be a waiting area for many people to buy, so be careful of traps, not sure that the market makers will drive it back up.

The average purchase price of MicroStrategy has reached about $67k, if the price comes back to or below this price area, it will be a very clear opportunity for all parties. Besides Strategy, many governments, organizations, and companies are actively buying & holding Bitcoin (like Metaplanet, or recently GameStop, and many others are quietly accumulating without announcement). There are many factors like mining costs, circulating supply, market psychology,... I will explain in later posts, this is not the peak of this cycle yet.

The best current plan is to wait for a break retest or drop back to the old peak to Long up.

The retailers' psychology is naturally frustrated, desperate, and angry during this phase. Regardless of the circumstances, I will update the market situation as usual, follow me for the earliest market updates at tradecoinsignalsvn (free)

The market always operates through stories, one story will end and another will begin, and currently, the story is about tariffs. It sounds very serious, but everything will pass, and people will forget like many times before. The crypto market in the recent past has mostly been influenced by long-term positive news, and the price drop is mainly due to the bad economic situation. News about tariffs raises concerns about the possibility of a trade war -> directly affecting traditional markets + stocks, and indirectly affecting crypto.

Last year, when $BTC crashed from 70k to 49k (a decrease of about 30% - similar to now), it was the story of Yen Carry Trade. At that time, the market was worried about the possibility of prices continuing to plummet if the BOJ raised interest rates -> investors had to close their JPY borrowing positions, leading to a sell-off of other assets, including stocks + crypto. Liquidity would tighten and the risk of a financial crisis/global recession would arise. In the end, good news came out, the story passed, and now hardly anyone remembers it.

In 2023, when the FED is raising interest rates and a few major banks in the US collapsed, people were also worried about a recession, the S&P 500 dropped about 10% + $BTC decreased about 25% (quite similar to now). Everyone thought the market would continue to decline sharply, completely dead, but then the market recovered and grew again, and the story ended.
This time will be similar 👍

$BTC has broken the triangle + EMA89 D, according to technical analysis theory it will head towards EMA200. Currently, the price is in the support zone of 90-91k but this is already the 9th time, the more times it hits support, the weaker it becomes. The H4 frame shows strong selling pressure, and there isn't much hope unless the market makers push a reversal in technical analysis.

However, checking Long Short liquidity, there is a significant disparity as the Long side has been nearly wiped out, with liquidity in the 89-90k area still relatively intact. Long liquidity is about over 2B$, while Short liquidity is over 14B$ (approximately 7 times that of Long).

The Fear and Greed index has dropped to 29 on Coinmarketcap, 25 on Binance. The lowest level in recent years was 26 when the market bottomed out in September 2024.

Although looking at the chart from a technical analysis perspective, the price could drop further significantly, based on Long Short liquidity + current market sentiment, it is highly likely that we will soon see the market create a bottom and recover around the end of February, beginning of March. Many altcoins are experiencing a decline of 70-80% (divided by 4-5 times) in just over 2 months 😁

Retailers' sentiment is understandably frustrated, desperate, and complaining during this period. Regardless of the circumstances, I will continue to update the market situation as usual, follow me for the earliest updates on the market & signals at tradecoinsignalsvn (free)

GM this week guys, the market seems a bit bad at the beginning of the week 😁

$BTC after a slight breakout above EMA34 D + EMA200 H4, we immediately encountered FUD that Bybit was hacked for $1.5 billion and has dropped back to move within the EMA89 + EMA34 D range. The smaller time frame is in a downtrend, and H4 continues to be under pressure from the 3 EMA lines.

Liqui Long Short $BTC in the price range of 10k: Long side over $6 billion, Short side $11 billion

The positive thing is that the funding rate of many coins is shifting to negative, meaning the amount of Shorts is much larger than Longs. The margin loan interest rate is at a very low level, indicating that the recent crash has liquidated most of the retailers' loans and currently, there is little demand for borrowing to trade due to fear and caution. It’s quite similar to the peak period in December when I warned that the market's funding rate was strongly positive + margin loan rates were very high. After that, the market made a strong correction, and now we are in the opposite situation.

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After 4-5 attempts to break upwards, yesterday it finally managed to surpass EMA200 H4, while also closing the daily candle above EMA34. Today, if it successfully tests again, the chances of further increases are high.

The price is trending upwards to sweep the Short liquidity as viewed in previous posts; currently, within the range of 10k, the Long liquidity is about 7B$, and the Short liquidity is about 11.9B$.

Bitcoin has been moving in the price range of 90-108k for over 3 months; the market has cooled down and even turned pessimistic as most altcoins hit their lows, breaking below them. As long as it continues to rise here, altcoins could follow a positive scenario, retracing and breaking upwards around the end of February to the beginning of March. After that, there will likely be a pullback, retest, sweep liquidity, hover for a while, and then pump in the following months will be beautiful 😁

The post I shared this morning in the channel has shown signs of a successful retest and continues to rise. Follow me for the earliest market updates & signals at tradecoinsignalsvn (free)

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PI has been listed, congratulations to those Pi holders who have managed to sell at a high price with profits or bought at a low price and held for several years, now they are also making quite a profit.

As predicted, when PI is listed, it will be pushed in the short term creating FOMO and then gradually decreasing. The image I took when PI was around $1.6 had a total market cap (FDV) of $160 billion. Binance - the largest exchange in this market, also only has an FDV of $92 billion, to compare with other top assets like $33.47 billion with an FDV of $18 billion, which is 10 times if PI is priced at $1.8 😂

PI (with its own ecosystem) can be compared to other Layer1s in the market, with the current price also just having an FDV of over $100 billion. What will PI do to surpass SOL, I do not know :)) Meanwhile, SUI's FDV is currently $33 billion, if PI is valued similarly, the price would be $0.33.

To return to its true value will also take time, but I hope PI will hold its price a little longer, and even being pushed up would be better to attract more new investors into this market. Furthermore, it shows that many other altcoins are currently being valued with FDV that is too low 😂

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🚨 Brevan Howard reports holding $1.38 billion IBIT (25,567,302 shares) as of December 31.
The total portfolio value in the 13F report is $15.5 billion, with IBIT being the largest ETF investment.
Brevan Howard is currently the largest holder of Bitcoin ETF at the end of 2024.
Brevan Howard is a hedge fund management company from Europe.

🚨 Millennium Management announces it holds $2.6 billion in Bitcoin ETF and $182 million in Ethereum ETF according to the SEC's 13F report.

🚨 TUDOR INVESTMENT DOUBLES BITCOIN ETF HOLDINGS, BITCOIN BECOMES THE LARGEST ASSET IN THE FUND
In the 13F filing released this afternoon, Tudor Investment, the company of billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, reports holding 8,048,552 shares of IBIT, equivalent to $426.9 million as of December 31. This figure is an increase from 4,428,230 shares held on September 30.
According to the 13F filing, Bitcoin is the largest stock or ETF position in Tudor's entire portfolio, which includes a total of 2,944 stock codes.

While retailers are feeling frustrated and scared, large institutions, investment funds, and whales are still accumulating $BTC and $ETH . Many funds also hold $BTC as the largest in their portfolios, surely they are not less savvy than retailers. So, look broadly to see the overall picture of the market at this moment 👍

In the image are large funds investing in BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT)

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