AquaBry
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š§¬ Why the rate will be reduced in the near future.
Trump works primarily to please his small community. You heard that this "peacemaker" wants to lower the interest rate? And how to force the Fed to lower this rate? And now, why extradite illegal immigrants from the state and declare a trade war on exporting countries, are these protectionist measures?
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š§¬ FIRE IN LOS ANGELES, some are indifferent to what is happening, some believe that Ukraine (Trump's son) is to blame, while others seriously think that this will cause a crisis, and commercial insurance companies will not be able to pay compensation.
Absolutely all insurers and owners of private buildings know that the material from which homes are made (pressed chips) can ignite from the slightest spark; such buildings are erected by illegal Mexican workers in 2 weeks. All insurance companies know this, and in areas with a high likelihood of fire occurrence, the cost of insurance will be higher. Fires in LA happen constantly due to a lack of rain (a couple of times a year) and a dry climate, while in the media and social networks, individuals like those on TikTok have inflated a news bubble, and incompetent analysts have started to write that we are on the brink of economic decadence.
Absolutely all insurers and owners of private buildings know that the material from which homes are made (pressed chips) can ignite from the slightest spark; such buildings are erected by illegal Mexican workers in 2 weeks. All insurance companies know this, and in areas with a high likelihood of fire occurrence, the cost of insurance will be higher. Fires in LA happen constantly due to a lack of rain (a couple of times a year) and a dry climate, while in the media and social networks, individuals like those on TikTok have inflated a news bubble, and incompetent analysts have started to write that we are on the brink of economic decadence.
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šCongratulations to all participants of the current cycle on the New Year, I wish everyone with their head on their shoulders a profitable 2025, we are waiting for the alt season, but we should not relax, in order to achieve success in this field we need to study everything related to it, not just graphic concepts (SM, VSA, ICT, TPO, etc.). This year will truly be a turning point and in this case, it is no longer an annual clichĆ©)
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š§¬$ETH fell into the 3500-3580 purchase zone and then reached the main target from my latest analysis. In fact, there is room for growth, there are buyers pushing in the clusters, and according to ATR, the nearest value where the price can locally stop is 3900, the nearest price levels are 4000 and 4090.
The latest PMI macro data are not the smoothest for the labor market, but the chances of a key rate cut on December 18 have increased. Retail is preparing to listen to the upcoming speech of the Fed chairman [20:45 GMT+2] and will react with speculation on the market depending on Powell's rhetoric (well, you already know this). Therefore, again, we are not putting on blinkers, locally they can crumble today and tomorrow's unemployment data.
The latest PMI macro data are not the smoothest for the labor market, but the chances of a key rate cut on December 18 have increased. Retail is preparing to listen to the upcoming speech of the Fed chairman [20:45 GMT+2] and will react with speculation on the market depending on Powell's rhetoric (well, you already know this). Therefore, again, we are not putting on blinkers, locally they can crumble today and tomorrow's unemployment data.
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š§¬$BTC BlackRock deposits more than 500k gold digitalāļø
Bitcoin correction is on reduced volumes and negative CVD, now the price is held by support 94750, the main significant block of purchases is in the zone 89800-90200, this is the next POI in case of a breakout of the current support. Now it is important to look at the order flow at $ETH , the situation is different there, 3500-3580 is a massive area of āāāābuying limits, on the other hand, there is no active seller yet. I believe that bitcoin, coupled with dominance, can decline to the specified POI, and the rise of ether to the main zone of sales and fixations 3780-3810. But the upcoming macro conditions and the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday could locally shake the retail market, and on Friday there will also be unemployment, so we are not putting on blinders.
Bitcoin correction is on reduced volumes and negative CVD, now the price is held by support 94750, the main significant block of purchases is in the zone 89800-90200, this is the next POI in case of a breakout of the current support. Now it is important to look at the order flow at $ETH , the situation is different there, 3500-3580 is a massive area of āāāābuying limits, on the other hand, there is no active seller yet. I believe that bitcoin, coupled with dominance, can decline to the specified POI, and the rise of ether to the main zone of sales and fixations 3780-3810. But the upcoming macro conditions and the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday could locally shake the retail market, and on Friday there will also be unemployment, so we are not putting on blinders.
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š§¬$BTC Fear/Greed Index dropped by 14 points at the end of the weekend, the number of retail shorts increased. Funds supposedly do not trade on weekends, which means less liquidity, so the crowd can withstand more + oscillators showed sales, thus they dressed in shorts. If you know how to calculate ATR, you'll understand that the pullback carries no significance. I won't dwell long on the blocks of buyers, simply put, the order flow in the market is bullish, there are enough buying blocks, and it's unlikely that retail will have the resources to overcome all the limits. I am a bit concerned about the decrease in bullish momentum and the sell orders at $ETH , as if they want to drop it to 3200.
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$BTC 97k, analysis of November 17th was unprecedented and executed excellently, after yesterday's breakout at 94k, retail started to open short positions and catch the reversal š«„. The retail cohort split into two groups, with some drawing something with MACD and RSI and they frantically started selling, becoming the fuel for growth, while others became skeptical of these oscillators and are sitting without setups in frustration. At 15:30 Initial Jobless Claims, but after the election of Republicans in the USA, retail is not reacting much, even to data that weakens the labor market and reduces the chance of a rate cut in December. So far, everything is still working.
š§¬$BTC $ETH formed a flat movement, which was predictively stated in the last review/analytics, liquidations accumulated on both sides validate this sideways movement. The chart $BTC itself confirms the local S/P balance and the bifurcation point, volumes in the flat are reduced, which indicates that a large player is gaining a position, but where is the big guy gaining, buying or selling? Here you need to look at the footprint (clusters). 91100-93100 is the area of āāāāthe first echelon of sellers, in case of a breakthrough of these blocks, significant fences for new peaks are not worth it.
On the other side, buyers have placed their blocks, which are set at 89k and are spread out in a wide pool up to 80k, which may indicate the desire of large speculators to unload at higher prices. I think that going below 84k (not counting a false breakout) is very undesirable for the continuation of the "fever", because in this case the current range will break, and storming 100k below this range will be more difficult and long participants will temporarily lose this prerogative, so you need to go and set new ATHs from this sideways and without corrections.
On the other side, buyers have placed their blocks, which are set at 89k and are spread out in a wide pool up to 80k, which may indicate the desire of large speculators to unload at higher prices. I think that going below 84k (not counting a false breakout) is very undesirable for the continuation of the "fever", because in this case the current range will break, and storming 100k below this range will be more difficult and long participants will temporarily lose this prerogative, so you need to go and set new ATHs from this sideways and without corrections.
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š§¬ $BTC BTC here is the confirmation of the words from my last analysis. Now in the mass of "legitimate analysts" from santiment, coinglass, crypto-quant, etc., they are muttering about the absence of FOMO, low financing rates, and a minimal number of open short positions. But if retail is not shorting, it does not mean that there are no sellers at all; the 95k-96k zone still acts as a resistance block from the previous review, but buyers in this case have a significant weight, 90k-80k quantitative platform of limit walls, so I see no reasonable basis for the price to just fly to grab this liquidity, who benefits from this in such a situation, when everyone is reading how Trump appoints all apologists and proponents of cryptocurrencies like Howard Lutnick to his administrationā¦
š§¬$BTC $ETH formed a flat movement, which was predictively stated in the last review/analytics, liquidations accumulated on both sides validate this sideways movement. The chart $BTC itself confirms the local S/P balance and the bifurcation point, volumes in the flat are reduced, which indicates that a large player is gaining a position, but where is the big guy gaining, buying or selling? Here you need to look at the footprint (clusters). 91100-93100 is the area of āāāāthe first echelon of sellers, in case of a breakthrough of these blocks, significant fences for new peaks are not worth it.
On the other side, buyers have placed their blocks, which are set at 89k and are spread out in a wide pool up to 80k, which may indicate the desire of large speculators to unload at higher prices. I think that going below 84k (not counting a false breakout) is very undesirable for the continuation of the "fever", because in this case the current range will break, and storming 100k below this range will be more difficult and long participants will temporarily lose this prerogative, so you need to go and set new ATHs from this sideways and without corrections.
On the other side, buyers have placed their blocks, which are set at 89k and are spread out in a wide pool up to 80k, which may indicate the desire of large speculators to unload at higher prices. I think that going below 84k (not counting a false breakout) is very undesirable for the continuation of the "fever", because in this case the current range will break, and storming 100k below this range will be more difficult and long participants will temporarily lose this prerogative, so you need to go and set new ATHs from this sideways and without corrections.
See original
š§¬$BTC $ETH formed a flat movement, which was predictively stated in the last review/analytics, liquidations accumulated on both sides validate this sideways movement. The chart $BTC itself confirms the local S/P balance and the bifurcation point, volumes in the flat are reduced, which indicates that a large player is gaining a position, but where is the big guy gaining, buying or selling? Here you need to look at the footprint (clusters). 91100-93100 is the area of āāāāthe first echelon of sellers, in case of a breakthrough of these blocks, significant fences for new peaks are not worth it.
On the other side, buyers have placed their blocks, which are set at 89k and are spread out in a wide pool up to 80k, which may indicate the desire of large speculators to unload at higher prices. I think that going below 84k (not counting a false breakout) is very undesirable for the continuation of the "fever", because in this case the current range will break, and storming 100k below this range will be more difficult and long participants will temporarily lose this prerogative, so you need to go and set new ATHs from this sideways and without corrections.
On the other side, buyers have placed their blocks, which are set at 89k and are spread out in a wide pool up to 80k, which may indicate the desire of large speculators to unload at higher prices. I think that going below 84k (not counting a false breakout) is very undesirable for the continuation of the "fever", because in this case the current range will break, and storming 100k below this range will be more difficult and long participants will temporarily lose this prerogative, so you need to go and set new ATHs from this sideways and without corrections.
š§¬$BTC $ETH large limits on sales have appeared. I believe these are takes and fixations of large players who have taken the full amplitude since the breakthrough of the March peak. This does not indicate a price reversal, nothing prevents you from fixing the profit and moving the limits on purchase closer to the current price, which is what is happening now on the orderflow chart. Perhaps they set up sales blocks to hold the price in a direct channel (flat), since BlackRock will launch its BUIDL on the POL, APT, ARB, etc. blockchain.
If the market goes sideways, this will be very good, the flat will allow the market to cool down and stabilize the resonant supply/demand after exponential growth and it does not need to go into a correction below, to the liquidation zones of long traders. In this sideways trend, retail will begin to be fixed, buying in the area of āā70300-73600, gradually filling the orders of large buyers.
If the market goes sideways, this will be very good, the flat will allow the market to cool down and stabilize the resonant supply/demand after exponential growth and it does not need to go into a correction below, to the liquidation zones of long traders. In this sideways trend, retail will begin to be fixed, buying in the area of āā70300-73600, gradually filling the orders of large buyers.
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š§¬$BTC $ETH large limits on sales have appeared. I believe these are takes and fixations of large players who have taken the full amplitude since the breakthrough of the March peak. This does not indicate a price reversal, nothing prevents you from fixing the profit and moving the limits on purchase closer to the current price, which is what is happening now on the orderflow chart. Perhaps they set up sales blocks to hold the price in a direct channel (flat), since BlackRock will launch its BUIDL on the POL, APT, ARB, etc. blockchain.
If the market goes sideways, this will be very good, the flat will allow the market to cool down and stabilize the resonant supply/demand after exponential growth and it does not need to go into a correction below, to the liquidation zones of long traders. In this sideways trend, retail will begin to be fixed, buying in the area of āā70300-73600, gradually filling the orders of large buyers.
If the market goes sideways, this will be very good, the flat will allow the market to cool down and stabilize the resonant supply/demand after exponential growth and it does not need to go into a correction below, to the liquidation zones of long traders. In this sideways trend, retail will begin to be fixed, buying in the area of āā70300-73600, gradually filling the orders of large buyers.
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š§¬$ETH DEPOSIT 40,000 ON BINANCE, will they definitely sell now, should I press short?
Let's look at the facts:
The growth is supported by the volume, on minimal rollbacks the volume decreases (the balance is in favor of demand). 3000-3120 is a large pool of purchase blocks, the volume delta and cumulative delta validate this. I will not count how many applications were placed there with pending orders, but the support is massive enough to keep the quote above 3k. It will not be possible to beat these buyer blocks just like that, given the current market and external agenda.
There is a small limit wall of 3220-3250 from sales, and there is also a retail cohort that is trying to catch a reversal, their liquidations are slightly above the sellers' area. From all of the above, we can assume that the big guys don't have a priority to lower the overbought $ETH , according to retail. Tuesday is a rest from macro, Wednesday is consumer inflation, Thursday is industrial inflation, and then they will show the prospects for these purchases.
Let's look at the facts:
The growth is supported by the volume, on minimal rollbacks the volume decreases (the balance is in favor of demand). 3000-3120 is a large pool of purchase blocks, the volume delta and cumulative delta validate this. I will not count how many applications were placed there with pending orders, but the support is massive enough to keep the quote above 3k. It will not be possible to beat these buyer blocks just like that, given the current market and external agenda.
There is a small limit wall of 3220-3250 from sales, and there is also a retail cohort that is trying to catch a reversal, their liquidations are slightly above the sellers' area. From all of the above, we can assume that the big guys don't have a priority to lower the overbought $ETH , according to retail. Tuesday is a rest from macro, Wednesday is consumer inflation, Thursday is industrial inflation, and then they will show the prospects for these purchases.
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š§¬$ETH reached the rebound zone of 2820, the previous analysis wrote about probable growth, as a result, there is an ascending amplitude so far. Funding is not overheated and is in a more or less neutral state, in addition, it is very likely that the Fed will lower the rate at 21:00, which will encourage retail to buy even at updated highs, so it is too early to talk about a correction, there is no point in this if a lot of long trades are not open in the market.
On the chart itself, the growth of ether is supported by the growth of volume, the minimum decline is paired with a negative delta, which indicates divergence and pending buy orders. There is still room to grow, and fuel may appear soon.
On the chart itself, the growth of ether is supported by the growth of volume, the minimum decline is paired with a negative delta, which indicates divergence and pending buy orders. There is still room to grow, and fuel may appear soon.
š§¬$ETH On the chart, it may look overbought, but order flow indicates there are buyers. There are blocks of purchases at 2600-2630 totaling 18k ethers, which means they are pushing the quote with limits; this indirectly suggests a continuation of growth $BTC , although again technically I would like to see a correction [I agree with you on this point]. Liquidations of both instruments also show the short prerogative of retail, because shorting from a new maximum sounds reasonable.
Tomorrow a decision on the rate is expected, although currently the administration is Republican, and they do not like to lower federal fund rates and engage in money printing, but I still believe they will lower it by 25 b.p. I am not encouraging anyone to rush to open purchases due to the presence of large buyers, as retail is largely aimed at correction, and there are still risks of breaking these limits, but I think there is a reason they placed such large blocks for purchase.
Tomorrow a decision on the rate is expected, although currently the administration is Republican, and they do not like to lower federal fund rates and engage in money printing, but I still believe they will lower it by 25 b.p. I am not encouraging anyone to rush to open purchases due to the presence of large buyers, as retail is largely aimed at correction, and there are still risks of breaking these limits, but I think there is a reason they placed such large blocks for purchase.
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š§¬$ETH On the chart, it may look overbought, but order flow indicates there are buyers. There are blocks of purchases at 2600-2630 totaling 18k ethers, which means they are pushing the quote with limits; this indirectly suggests a continuation of growth $BTC , although again technically I would like to see a correction [I agree with you on this point]. Liquidations of both instruments also show the short prerogative of retail, because shorting from a new maximum sounds reasonable.
Tomorrow a decision on the rate is expected, although currently the administration is Republican, and they do not like to lower federal fund rates and engage in money printing, but I still believe they will lower it by 25 b.p. I am not encouraging anyone to rush to open purchases due to the presence of large buyers, as retail is largely aimed at correction, and there are still risks of breaking these limits, but I think there is a reason they placed such large blocks for purchase.
Tomorrow a decision on the rate is expected, although currently the administration is Republican, and they do not like to lower federal fund rates and engage in money printing, but I still believe they will lower it by 25 b.p. I am not encouraging anyone to rush to open purchases due to the presence of large buyers, as retail is largely aimed at correction, and there are still risks of breaking these limits, but I think there is a reason they placed such large blocks for purchase.
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š§¬$BTC The limit buyers discussed in the previous review have worked more than, in addition, the growth was helped by retail, which was happy with the statistics of votes in the elections. You can rejoice but with contempt, since the counting is not finished yet, and there are risks of another escalation in the Middle East, although if Trump is elected president, few will care. Participants' shorts were liquidated in the past day for $ 350 million, which is very insignificant, given the new maximum, perhaps someone was afraid of the Democrats' victory or is simply an apologist for Kamala.
Nevertheless, the week is not over, just like the previous volatility, ahead are macro data, the FOMC speech and the interest rate decision. If the Republicans become the US administration and the rate cut is within the expectations of investors and market participants, then $BTC will have additional fuel, and retail will have a very pragmatic and reasonable reason to buy even from the current ones.
Nevertheless, the week is not over, just like the previous volatility, ahead are macro data, the FOMC speech and the interest rate decision. If the Republicans become the US administration and the rate cut is within the expectations of investors and market participants, then $BTC will have additional fuel, and retail will have a very pragmatic and reasonable reason to buy even from the current ones.
š§¬$BTC a major player will move the price where it is cheaper and easier to move [postulate]. There are not many big sellers above, compared to the number of buyer blocks. The question is, will these purchase limits hold back the impending triggers?
Chart, growth from 67k but volume is decreasing, no divergence by cumulative and histogram delta, weekly POC at 69550, this is a local value zone and resistance, on the daily liquidation map, overwhelming liquidity is among long participants, retail is a priority, sitting in long positions. In theory, there is no difficulty in pulling $BTC into the 70k zone and trying to hold it there until the pressure from outside passes, but whether there will be reasonable grounds to do so will not be clear for a long time.
Chart, growth from 67k but volume is decreasing, no divergence by cumulative and histogram delta, weekly POC at 69550, this is a local value zone and resistance, on the daily liquidation map, overwhelming liquidity is among long participants, retail is a priority, sitting in long positions. In theory, there is no difficulty in pulling $BTC into the 70k zone and trying to hold it there until the pressure from outside passes, but whether there will be reasonable grounds to do so will not be clear for a long time.
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š§¬$BTC a major player will move the price where it is cheaper and easier to move [postulate]. There are not many big sellers above, compared to the number of buyer blocks. The question is, will these purchase limits hold back the impending triggers?
Chart, growth from 67k but volume is decreasing, no divergence by cumulative and histogram delta, weekly POC at 69550, this is a local value zone and resistance, on the daily liquidation map, overwhelming liquidity is among long participants, retail is a priority, sitting in long positions. In theory, there is no difficulty in pulling $BTC into the 70k zone and trying to hold it there until the pressure from outside passes, but whether there will be reasonable grounds to do so will not be clear for a long time.
Chart, growth from 67k but volume is decreasing, no divergence by cumulative and histogram delta, weekly POC at 69550, this is a local value zone and resistance, on the daily liquidation map, overwhelming liquidity is among long participants, retail is a priority, sitting in long positions. In theory, there is no difficulty in pulling $BTC into the 70k zone and trying to hold it there until the pressure from outside passes, but whether there will be reasonable grounds to do so will not be clear for a long time.
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š§¬ Tricky question:
What event could disrupt retail expectations and cause dissonance ahead of November 5th or on the US election day itselfā
Why do small players constantly panic when this event occursā
What event could disrupt retail expectations and cause dissonance ahead of November 5th or on the US election day itselfā
Why do small players constantly panic when this event occursā
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š§¬ $BTC Open interest is at the highs, this is logical because the price is at the high, liquidations on both sides are the same, although given the high open interest, the volume of liquidations is small. In terms of retail, the market is in balance, so sentiment is not informative.
Much more interesting are the fat cats, 68,000-70,000 buyer blocks (many large orders), the correction is just right for large players, perhaps they are even waiting for bad macro and have substituted buckets. The correction itself will not look scary, the market has passed the bullish ATR and a rollback to the 69k-70k area will not be problematic, but going lower will disrupt the growing amplitude, this will not be critical, but we all love structural formations.
Much more interesting are the fat cats, 68,000-70,000 buyer blocks (many large orders), the correction is just right for large players, perhaps they are even waiting for bad macro and have substituted buckets. The correction itself will not look scary, the market has passed the bullish ATR and a rollback to the 69k-70k area will not be problematic, but going lower will disrupt the growing amplitude, this will not be critical, but we all love structural formations.
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š§¬ What difference does it make who the president is?
You know, as a 17-year-old student, I am unhappy with the existence of the 12th grade in Israel. Trump BEFORE and CONTRIBUTE to the Department of Education!!! But seriously, Harris' term could put a huge barrier to the rally in risky markets, and I am not talking about the volatile movements on expectations that will happen on election day. In simple terms, Israel is waiting for the head of the Trump administration, the reason is security and political support. The Israeli establishment believes that Trump better protects the interests of the state š®š± and gives more freedom for tactical military space. Democrats greatly limit the actions of the Israeli military, unlike Trump. And why did I write all this? If Kamala wins, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East could worsen. Today's Democrats are already putting a lot of pressure on Israel and throwing out warnings that they will limit arms supplies if Israel does not stop its actions in Lebanon / Iran. I believe Kamala will increase the pressure, giving Iran more maneuver. Thus, the risks of a worsening of the current conflict in the Middle East will increase, and you yourself understand how this will affect the markets.we are not talking about a possible black swan, $BTC has been in the correction phase for 7 months, all market participants are waiting for November 5th and know in advance which face will spur on a new ATH, and which will generate uncertainty, for some it doesnāt matter who will be the head of the US, they are sure - bitcoin will be at least 80k in the 4th quarter, but there is a difference and Trump and Harris have diametrically opposed plans and views.
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š§¬ $BTC retail received a local news dump, but a large player with an order for 1.5k bitcoins at a price of 65000-65500 does not want to see prices lower yet, also in advance, before this squeeze there were an abnormally large number of buyer limits above the main order, now we have seen the processing of these limit blocks. Whether there were any insiders who knew about the news before the public or not is not important, the fact is that the market is supported by buyers and there is no need to talk about a decline yet.
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š§¬ $ETH 2480-2520 there were limits on purchases, they did not want to see the price below 2500 and even now they bought out the decline, setting a local low of 2440. If we talk about the bearish ATR, the ether has overcome it, but a flat in the range of 2443-2520 is likely. De facto $ETH goes parity with $BTC and both instruments have a similar vision. Long in case the price goes above 2520 and the corresponding consolidation, preferably on a reduced volume "in simple terms".
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