小马pro
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Currently, new funds are flowing into Bitcoin, as evidenced by the continuous premium from CB, indicating strong buying power. After a short-term consolidation, it will soon challenge the $100,000 mark.
Therefore, starting in May, the mainstream narrative will be to buy on dips with a bullish outlook. In May, the market will start speculating on the expected interest rate cuts in June. As we enter June and July, the market will shift its focus to Trump’s tax cut expectations, followed by a series of positive expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's ongoing QT reduction, all of which are favorable for the market. This is why I have consistently stated that the real market action will happen in Q3 and Q4.
After Bitcoin stabilizes, the current AI concept is surging wildly. In such a large market, there really aren't many targets to speculate on, so the AI narrative will continue to dominate, followed by meme narratives.
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币
Therefore, starting in May, the mainstream narrative will be to buy on dips with a bullish outlook. In May, the market will start speculating on the expected interest rate cuts in June. As we enter June and July, the market will shift its focus to Trump’s tax cut expectations, followed by a series of positive expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's ongoing QT reduction, all of which are favorable for the market. This is why I have consistently stated that the real market action will happen in Q3 and Q4.
After Bitcoin stabilizes, the current AI concept is surging wildly. In such a large market, there really aren't many targets to speculate on, so the AI narrative will continue to dominate, followed by meme narratives.
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币
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The ETF altcoin season is coming, and these altcoins applying for ETFs are about to explode with 10x gains!
The ETF altcoin season is coming, will XRP surge? Recently, there has been rampant online speculation that 'the US SEC has approved the XRP spot ETF,' causing XRP price to briefly rise by 5%. After a slight increase, the price quickly fell back as people realized the mistake. What are the three new XRP ETFs? These ETFs do not directly buy XRP but bet on futures price fluctuations. ProShares in the US is set to launch on April 30:
2x long futures ETF
1x short futures ETF
2x short futures ETF
Current status of XRP ETF: There are 4 XRP ETFs in the US, all of which are futures, with no spot ETFs. On April 25, the XRP spot ETF was listed in Brazil. On May 19, XRP futures were launched on the Chicago Exchange, possibly paving the way for spot ETFs. So, when will the SEC approve the spot ETF? Large companies like Grayscale are applying, but the SEC has not yet budged. Currently, the ETF altcoin season is approaching, with over 70 ETF applications, and everyone is betting that the new SEC chairman will approve them. XRP, Sol, and LTC are the focus of the next wave, while Doge, Bonk, and PENGU are also following the trend to join the ETF frenzy, likely to be a pump and dump. XRP market cap: 134.5 billion, SOL market cap: 76.9 billion. If both are approved for ETFs, considering market cap and ecological advantages, SOL may have more potential for price increase in the future.
2x long futures ETF
1x short futures ETF
2x short futures ETF
Current status of XRP ETF: There are 4 XRP ETFs in the US, all of which are futures, with no spot ETFs. On April 25, the XRP spot ETF was listed in Brazil. On May 19, XRP futures were launched on the Chicago Exchange, possibly paving the way for spot ETFs. So, when will the SEC approve the spot ETF? Large companies like Grayscale are applying, but the SEC has not yet budged. Currently, the ETF altcoin season is approaching, with over 70 ETF applications, and everyone is betting that the new SEC chairman will approve them. XRP, Sol, and LTC are the focus of the next wave, while Doge, Bonk, and PENGU are also following the trend to join the ETF frenzy, likely to be a pump and dump. XRP market cap: 134.5 billion, SOL market cap: 76.9 billion. If both are approved for ETFs, considering market cap and ecological advantages, SOL may have more potential for price increase in the future.
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The stablecoin on the exchange has seen a slight pullback after a continuous inflow for 3 days.
It appears to have stabilized now, with signs of continued inflow.
The major cryptocurrency on the exchange has seen a slight inflow since April 27.
Some users cannot wait any longer and are preparing to sell, but the trend of the major cryptocurrency remains strong.
#美股财报周来袭
It appears to have stabilized now, with signs of continued inflow.
The major cryptocurrency on the exchange has seen a slight inflow since April 27.
Some users cannot wait any longer and are preparing to sell, but the trend of the major cryptocurrency remains strong.
#美股财报周来袭
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Michael Saylor hints at increasing Bitcoin holdings, once again releasing investment tracking charts, truly an endless supply of bullets for those who really understand and take action.
The cryptocurrency market has seen a net inflow of nearly $9 billion, indicating a strong rebound in investor interest. Current data suggest that institutions are rushing into the Bitcoin market, while retail investors have not followed suit; whether in the stock market or the cryptocurrency market, institutions always lead the way.
Bitcoin encountered resistance around $95,000, and there is currently no willingness to break through this level further. Therefore, we believe this position will continue to experience fluctuations for a while. If there are negative factors in May, it may drop to test the bottom support before embarking on a genuine bull market.
The strategy is now very clear: as we enter May, buy on dips, buy heavily on significant drops, and hold until Q3 and Q4, you will see substantial results. Currently, without clear innovative approaches, actively participate in the strongest rebounds among cryptocurrencies; these coins are sure to have strong support and will rise first when the market rallies.
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #以太坊的未来
The cryptocurrency market has seen a net inflow of nearly $9 billion, indicating a strong rebound in investor interest. Current data suggest that institutions are rushing into the Bitcoin market, while retail investors have not followed suit; whether in the stock market or the cryptocurrency market, institutions always lead the way.
Bitcoin encountered resistance around $95,000, and there is currently no willingness to break through this level further. Therefore, we believe this position will continue to experience fluctuations for a while. If there are negative factors in May, it may drop to test the bottom support before embarking on a genuine bull market.
The strategy is now very clear: as we enter May, buy on dips, buy heavily on significant drops, and hold until Q3 and Q4, you will see substantial results. Currently, without clear innovative approaches, actively participate in the strongest rebounds among cryptocurrencies; these coins are sure to have strong support and will rise first when the market rallies.
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #以太坊的未来
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Will Bitcoin's adjustment be an opportunity for altcoins? Focus on three potential coins that could increase tenfold in the future!
Bitcoin is replaying history — strong breakouts, surging momentum, institutional holdings... But this time, the market's technical aspects and potential risks cannot be ignored. Will it break through the sky, or will it fall again?
In the short term, there has been a squeeze of trapped positions around $95,000 for more than two months. The recent price increase is mainly due to institutions hoarding, while retail investors have been selling and shorting. Google search trends for the keyword BTC are still low, so the current risk is not high. It will only be a peak when many retail investors start taking out loans to buy BTC as they do with gold.
Last week, the Trump administration softened its rhetoric, indicating that they are considering reaching an agreement with China as soon as possible. Coupled with a slowdown in safe-haven fund outflows, gold has struggled, leading to a massive influx of funds into BTC through ETFs. However, with recent positive news, this week will mainly see sideways movement plus a small correction.
In the short term, there has been a squeeze of trapped positions around $95,000 for more than two months. The recent price increase is mainly due to institutions hoarding, while retail investors have been selling and shorting. Google search trends for the keyword BTC are still low, so the current risk is not high. It will only be a peak when many retail investors start taking out loans to buy BTC as they do with gold.
Last week, the Trump administration softened its rhetoric, indicating that they are considering reaching an agreement with China as soon as possible. Coupled with a slowdown in safe-haven fund outflows, gold has struggled, leading to a massive influx of funds into BTC through ETFs. However, with recent positive news, this week will mainly see sideways movement plus a small correction.
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Now the rebound target for each coin is the high point on March 2nd. Some coins have already exceeded that high point, while others are still much lower. If you bought a coin and don't know where it will rebound to, the high point on March 2nd is a very good reference.
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
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There are quite a few important events next week, and the futures market positions remain high:
Tuesday: U.S. March Labor Turnover Data
Wednesday: U.S. Q1 GDP and Price Index
Thursday: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
Friday: U.S. April Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate
At the same time, there are: 74 million SUI, 31.34 million OP, large unlocks.
#特朗普暂停新关税 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿
Tuesday: U.S. March Labor Turnover Data
Wednesday: U.S. Q1 GDP and Price Index
Thursday: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
Friday: U.S. April Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate
At the same time, there are: 74 million SUI, 31.34 million OP, large unlocks.
#特朗普暂停新关税 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿
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Is the expectation for Bitcoin to reach 100,000 next? Focus on 3 altcoins that could grow 10 times!
Analysis of the upcoming market trend
I believe that the remaining time before the interest rate cut in June will fluctuate widely in the range of 80,000 to 100,000. After the interest rate cut in June, it will break through the previous high and reach around 120,000. There will be a significant pullback in May, likely dropping to 90,000 or even below 85,000, which will be the last opportunity to bottom out. After the pullback, it will quickly rise to start a major bull market trend, reaching around 150,000 by July 2025, followed by a downward adjustment to the 100,000 range in August, and then a sideways fluctuation until September for the final round of increases, peaking around 200,000 in October, marking the end of the entire bull market cycle. Based on the reasons related to U.S. policies, I think the probability of the next cycle's bull market dropping below 50,000 is very low.
I believe that the remaining time before the interest rate cut in June will fluctuate widely in the range of 80,000 to 100,000. After the interest rate cut in June, it will break through the previous high and reach around 120,000. There will be a significant pullback in May, likely dropping to 90,000 or even below 85,000, which will be the last opportunity to bottom out. After the pullback, it will quickly rise to start a major bull market trend, reaching around 150,000 by July 2025, followed by a downward adjustment to the 100,000 range in August, and then a sideways fluctuation until September for the final round of increases, peaking around 200,000 in October, marking the end of the entire bull market cycle. Based on the reasons related to U.S. policies, I think the probability of the next cycle's bull market dropping below 50,000 is very low.
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The bears are still not giving up; they started to gradually open positions again on Saturday afternoon, which has led to a new accumulation of short liquidity at the 96500 level. Theoretically, as the price fluctuates upward, the liquidity here will continue to increase;
However, the liquidity vacuum area above 96500 has not yet been filled, which means that the short-term price target for upward testing will still be 96500;
As for the bulls, they are mostly clustered within the 91k~92k range. If there is a spike above 96500 followed by an immediate pullback, there may be a larger-scale pullback afterward, leading to a test of 91k;
In summary, first focus on 96500. If it can hold above without a pullback, continue to consider the continuation of the bullish trend. If it can't hold and falls back down, then a pullback to 91k can be expected.
Why is 96500 so important?
Because it is both the 0.618 retracement area of the weekly high and low points and the POC (Point of Control) of the left-side range (the maximum peak value of positions).
#比特币市值排名
However, the liquidity vacuum area above 96500 has not yet been filled, which means that the short-term price target for upward testing will still be 96500;
As for the bulls, they are mostly clustered within the 91k~92k range. If there is a spike above 96500 followed by an immediate pullback, there may be a larger-scale pullback afterward, leading to a test of 91k;
In summary, first focus on 96500. If it can hold above without a pullback, continue to consider the continuation of the bullish trend. If it can't hold and falls back down, then a pullback to 91k can be expected.
Why is 96500 so important?
Because it is both the 0.618 retracement area of the weekly high and low points and the POC (Point of Control) of the left-side range (the maximum peak value of positions).
#比特币市值排名
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I think there are three possible scenarios for the market ahead
1. It may follow a pattern similar to late May to early June last year, where the bull trend continues, with a double top from April 25 to May 5, a few altcoins reaching new highs, followed by a sharp drop from early May to early June, with the early June low resembling last year's July 5. Then there will be another rebound in June, but it will be weaker than the current wave.
2. It may follow a pattern similar to last September, with the top extending to April 30, then after three days of decline, it will struggle to fall further, starting to oscillate around the moving averages, and after a month of consolidation, there will be a pull-up in June.
3. The current rebound is comparable to August last year, so 74500=48500, April 7 equals August 5 of last year. However, this possibility is diminishing because BTC currently shows no top signals (compared to August 25 with all red in acc liq acc overall). If this guess is correct, there will be another opportunity to bottom out in early May, and the rebound in May will be as strong as last September, with June oscillating similarly to last October, leading to a major upward trend in July.
#币安Alpha积分 #特朗普暂停新关税
1. It may follow a pattern similar to late May to early June last year, where the bull trend continues, with a double top from April 25 to May 5, a few altcoins reaching new highs, followed by a sharp drop from early May to early June, with the early June low resembling last year's July 5. Then there will be another rebound in June, but it will be weaker than the current wave.
2. It may follow a pattern similar to last September, with the top extending to April 30, then after three days of decline, it will struggle to fall further, starting to oscillate around the moving averages, and after a month of consolidation, there will be a pull-up in June.
3. The current rebound is comparable to August last year, so 74500=48500, April 7 equals August 5 of last year. However, this possibility is diminishing because BTC currently shows no top signals (compared to August 25 with all red in acc liq acc overall). If this guess is correct, there will be another opportunity to bottom out in early May, and the rebound in May will be as strong as last September, with June oscillating similarly to last October, leading to a major upward trend in July.
#币安Alpha积分 #特朗普暂停新关税
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History does not repeat itself, but data shows that when the dollar index falls below 100, it often becomes the starting point for a frenzy of Bitcoin's rise—
-- April 2017: DXY fell below 100, Bitcoin rose from about $1,200 to $17,600, an increase of over 1,300%.
-- May 2020: DXY fell below 100 again, Bitcoin rose from about $9,500 to $57,500, an increase of about 500%.
-- November 2022: DXY plummeted, Bitcoin rose from about $15,500 to $69,000, an increase of over 300%.
All three rounds demonstrate the logic of 'Dollar Depreciation → Bitcoin Upward'.
Although we cannot mechanically seek solutions, the dollar falling below 100 may be seen as a signal for a cycle shift:
Current market liquidity expectations are improving + the ETF effect has not yet fully materialized + the cycle is entering a recovery phase, there is a probability space for Bitcoin to rise strongly again.
From the perspective of asset allocation, three suggestions:
✅
Continue dollar-cost averaging but do not chase highs, the cycle is not over, the structure is not peaked, but prices are no longer cheap, maintain a mindset of 'slow is fast'.
✅
Continue to leave a 20~30% US dollar-based safety margin.
✅
Pay attention to opportunities in 'sector rotation'.
Brothers have come together to chat:
点击加入聊天室，不定期有周边红包抽奖！红包发送！
#币安Alpha上新
-- April 2017: DXY fell below 100, Bitcoin rose from about $1,200 to $17,600, an increase of over 1,300%.
-- May 2020: DXY fell below 100 again, Bitcoin rose from about $9,500 to $57,500, an increase of about 500%.
-- November 2022: DXY plummeted, Bitcoin rose from about $15,500 to $69,000, an increase of over 300%.
All three rounds demonstrate the logic of 'Dollar Depreciation → Bitcoin Upward'.
Although we cannot mechanically seek solutions, the dollar falling below 100 may be seen as a signal for a cycle shift:
Current market liquidity expectations are improving + the ETF effect has not yet fully materialized + the cycle is entering a recovery phase, there is a probability space for Bitcoin to rise strongly again.
From the perspective of asset allocation, three suggestions:
✅
Continue dollar-cost averaging but do not chase highs, the cycle is not over, the structure is not peaked, but prices are no longer cheap, maintain a mindset of 'slow is fast'.
✅
Continue to leave a 20~30% US dollar-based safety margin.
✅
Pay attention to opportunities in 'sector rotation'.
Brothers have come together to chat:
点击加入聊天室，不定期有周边红包抽奖！红包发送！
#币安Alpha上新
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The main upward wave of BTC will occur in June! Focus on 3 potential coins that could soar 10 times in the next major bull market!
Tomorrow is the weekend, and Bitcoin is likely to be in a volatile market, which actually presents an opportunity for mainstream and altcoins. Although some altcoins have risen sharply recently, the true altcoin season has not yet arrived, and varieties like Auntie Tai are still at relatively low positions. Let’s see if they will surge over the weekend; if they don't rise and Bitcoin pulls back next month, other varieties will struggle as well. Therefore, it is not advisable to short mainstream and altcoins to avoid being unable to bear the rebound. There are only 5 days left until the month-end closing, and there won’t be a significant pullback this month, so let’s patiently wait for high-point signals to emerge!
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The daily Bitcoin level has risen above the 120-day moving average. If it stabilizes this week, it will make another push towards the $100,000 mark next week. If it doesn't stabilize, it will enter a short-term adjustment, but don't expect a significant drop. The bottom range emerged from prolonged market panic and is definitely a very strong support level.
Currently, Federal Reserve officials are hinting at interest rate cuts. If we follow the pace of rate cuts from June, the crypto market is currently on the path to breaking out and rebounding. Once the adjustment in May is over, it will re-enter a reversal trend, and the second half of the year will be crazy.
Just hold onto the top altcoins; you can't compete with the dogs in this game.
Chatroom collection:
点击加入聊天室，不定期有周边红包抽奖！红包发送！
#比特币市值排名
Currently, Federal Reserve officials are hinting at interest rate cuts. If we follow the pace of rate cuts from June, the crypto market is currently on the path to breaking out and rebounding. Once the adjustment in May is over, it will re-enter a reversal trend, and the second half of the year will be crazy.
Just hold onto the top altcoins; you can't compete with the dogs in this game.
Chatroom collection:
点击加入聊天室，不定期有周边红包抽奖！红包发送！
#比特币市值排名
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The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch XRP futures on May 19. Following this, a series of altcoin CME futures and ETF launches will occur in the second half of the year. Currently, the biggest positive for ETH is that the ETF staking resolution has been postponed to June 1.
#以太坊的未来 #币安上线INIT
#以太坊的未来 #币安上线INIT
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Which tokens in your holdings have surged the most during this rebound?
Remember, during a volatile period, focus on strong tokens——
Strong tokens tend to perform better during the oversold rebound phase; strength indicates that capital and sentiment are still present, leading to greater sustainability in the future.
Conversely, those stagnant altcoins are likely abandoned by traders and are in a state of neglect or temporary abandonment, giving up on recovery.
#币安Alpha上新 #TRUMP晚宴
Remember, during a volatile period, focus on strong tokens——
Strong tokens tend to perform better during the oversold rebound phase; strength indicates that capital and sentiment are still present, leading to greater sustainability in the future.
Conversely, those stagnant altcoins are likely abandoned by traders and are in a state of neglect or temporary abandonment, giving up on recovery.
#币安Alpha上新 #TRUMP晚宴
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How will the market trend next? Is there hope for altcoins to take off?
Yesterday, a large bullish candle changed beliefs, and many brothers have shifted their views, starting to invest more. Is this appropriate? How will the market trend next?
Firstly, gold seems to be stagnating. The target price of $3,500 we mentioned last week was precisely hit, and after reaching $3,500, gold has entered a massive震动模式. According to our previous analysis, the gold price surge is nearing its end, and some funds and attention will shift to BTC, bringing positive news. Various signs indicate that sovereign wealth funds, listed companies, and American elites are increasing their BTC holdings through ETFs and the spot market, while retail group friends are selling BTC.
Firstly, gold seems to be stagnating. The target price of $3,500 we mentioned last week was precisely hit, and after reaching $3,500, gold has entered a massive震动模式. According to our previous analysis, the gold price surge is nearing its end, and some funds and attention will shift to BTC, bringing positive news. Various signs indicate that sovereign wealth funds, listed companies, and American elites are increasing their BTC holdings through ETFs and the spot market, while retail group friends are selling BTC.
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Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback last night, but it remains strong. In fact, the range of 90,000-96,000 is a strong resistance level. Given such strong resistance, the pullback is very limited, which is enough to show that the current buying pressure is very strong. If it can maintain stability, it is highly likely to break through the 100,000 USD mark. What we are currently facing is the narrative of hedging risks, against the backdrop of Trump's American credit crisis, where a large number of institutions and professional investors are entering BTC to hedge against this dual risk of inflation and credit.
Bitcoin is transitioning from a risk asset to a store of value asset. The signs and signals of this transition are very strong. Once a broad consensus is formed globally, Bitcoin will officially enter a perpetual bull market.
The rebound in altcoins will not end suddenly; there will be a pullback after the short-term rebound, but it will continue, likely lasting until early May.
Brothers, gather in the chat room:
点击加入聊天室，不定期有周边红包抽奖！红包发送！
#TRUMP晚宴 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿
Bitcoin is transitioning from a risk asset to a store of value asset. The signs and signals of this transition are very strong. Once a broad consensus is formed globally, Bitcoin will officially enter a perpetual bull market.
The rebound in altcoins will not end suddenly; there will be a pullback after the short-term rebound, but it will continue, likely lasting until early May.
Brothers, gather in the chat room:
点击加入聊天室，不定期有周边红包抽奖！红包发送！
#TRUMP晚宴 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿
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Will the market maintain a volatile trend or continue to rise?
Currently, there are no interest rate cuts, no end to balance sheet reduction, and no other policies in place, indicating that we are not in an easing cycle fundamentally.
At present, what affects the price of $BTC is sentiment, and what influences sentiment are macro factors, cryptocurrency events, etc. The price of BTC, in turn, affects the rise and fall of altcoins.
Previously, sentiment was influenced by the easing of Trump’s tariff policies and Powell's softened stance, leading to a price increase, but the impact of this event is limited, and there are still variables. What if Trump says something else, right?
Now, Trump mentions that the tariff situation is still being negotiated, and there are no other major positive stimuli, and the resistance at 95,000 above 93,100 has not been broken through.
For now, it remains volatile.
Moreover, looking solely at the K-line trend, after the US stock market opened at 9:30 last night, the trading volume of BTC expanded and then changed hands.
We are currently waiting for further events that impact sentiment. Is there a reaction from Dongda today? There’s also the economic data coming out next Thursday, April 30.
The probability of maintaining volatility is high, and the uncertainty is also large (to put it simply, if there’s a slight negative impact on sentiment, the price will drop, but for it to continue rising, it needs a stronger positive stimulus. Is there such a strong positive stimulus in the short term? Probably not.)
In any case, those who bought around 75,000 are already nearing a profit of 20,000 USD.
As for altcoins, we don’t need to say much about their potential, right!
#加密货币总市值重回3万亿 #加密市场反弹
Currently, there are no interest rate cuts, no end to balance sheet reduction, and no other policies in place, indicating that we are not in an easing cycle fundamentally.
At present, what affects the price of $BTC is sentiment, and what influences sentiment are macro factors, cryptocurrency events, etc. The price of BTC, in turn, affects the rise and fall of altcoins.
Previously, sentiment was influenced by the easing of Trump’s tariff policies and Powell's softened stance, leading to a price increase, but the impact of this event is limited, and there are still variables. What if Trump says something else, right?
Now, Trump mentions that the tariff situation is still being negotiated, and there are no other major positive stimuli, and the resistance at 95,000 above 93,100 has not been broken through.
For now, it remains volatile.
Moreover, looking solely at the K-line trend, after the US stock market opened at 9:30 last night, the trading volume of BTC expanded and then changed hands.
We are currently waiting for further events that impact sentiment. Is there a reaction from Dongda today? There’s also the economic data coming out next Thursday, April 30.
The probability of maintaining volatility is high, and the uncertainty is also large (to put it simply, if there’s a slight negative impact on sentiment, the price will drop, but for it to continue rising, it needs a stronger positive stimulus. Is there such a strong positive stimulus in the short term? Probably not.)
In any case, those who bought around 75,000 are already nearing a profit of 20,000 USD.
As for altcoins, we don’t need to say much about their potential, right!
#加密货币总市值重回3万亿 #加密市场反弹
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