Recently, BTC's performance at the 107,000 mark has been quite intriguing, primarily due to the emergence of the phenomenon of 'not clearing when it should'.

Yesterday, BTC attempted to test the critical support level of 107,000 twice, clearly aiming to trigger the accumulated long leverage below and profit from it. However, the result was that both attempts failed, and the support at 107,000 appeared to be quite strong.

Who is supporting the price to prevent it from falling? Indications suggest that it is the futures players. There are two pieces of evidence: first, the decline in spot premium indicates a relative weakening of spot demand; second, the rise in funding rates shows that investors playing long on contracts are willing to pay higher 'fees' to shorts in order to maintain the price above 107,000. They are the current main force supporting the market.

What does 'not clearing when it should' mean? Simply put, the market is currently not in a hurry to crash down and has no intention of immediately liquidating the long positions below. There could be two reasons behind this: either the potential profit from the long positions waiting to be liquidated below is 'not enough' and lacks sufficient attraction, making it not worth the effort to crash the market now; or the short positions waiting to be triggered above are in better positions with more considerable profits, leading the main force to prefer pushing up to liquidate those high-position short investors.

When to turn bearish? We'll have to wait for a confirmation of breaking below 107,000. If one day the closing price is below 107,000, it indicates that the support force has exhausted, and long positions below may start to be liquidated, at which point the target could be set towards 105,800.

What kind of trend do I hope for more? I hope that in July the price can surge upwards, aiming to break through the short positions waiting below 113,000 and clear out the high-position shorts. If successful, it is likely to initiate a new wave of upward trends.

The core logic remains unchanged: the first step is to see whether the price makes a new high or a new low; the second step is to judge where the 'profit space' is the largest and most attractive; the third step is that the candlestick patterns are only for auxiliary reference and not critical.#BTC走势分析