LegandTAK
Open Trade
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#Tradedeal
#BTC
With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors.
#BTC
With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors.
#MarketRebound
#AsiaStock
#BTC
Asia FX treads water with tariff deadline in focus:
Broader Asian currencies kept to a tight range amid heightened uncertainty over the U.S. economy and President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
Trump’s three-month deadline for trade deals with major economies will expire in early-July, with no major agreements being achieved so far. A lack of trade deals could see the president proceed with his plan to impose steep tariffs on major U.S. trading partners.
But Trump may also further extend the deadline, given his tendency in the past to not make good on his tariff threats. Still, uncertainty over the deadline kept risk appetite subdued.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Washington had reached a trade deal with China, although he did not divulge any clear details on the purported agreement.
#AsiaStock
#BTC
Asia FX treads water with tariff deadline in focus:
Broader Asian currencies kept to a tight range amid heightened uncertainty over the U.S. economy and President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
Trump’s three-month deadline for trade deals with major economies will expire in early-July, with no major agreements being achieved so far. A lack of trade deals could see the president proceed with his plan to impose steep tariffs on major U.S. trading partners.
But Trump may also further extend the deadline, given his tendency in the past to not make good on his tariff threats. Still, uncertainty over the deadline kept risk appetite subdued.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Washington had reached a trade deal with China, although he did not divulge any clear details on the purported agreement.
#IsraelIranConflict
#BTC
🔮 Possible Future Scenarios.
Scenario Description Global Reaction.
Temporary Closure (1–2 weeks) Iran makes a point but avoids full war. Oil shock, but contained with diplomacy.
Prolonged Conflict Naval conflict escalates with U.S. and Gulf navies. Recession risk, military intervention.
Iran Compromise Iran reopens strait under pressure or deal. Markets stabilize, diplomatic victory.
#BTC
🔮 Possible Future Scenarios.
Scenario Description Global Reaction.
Temporary Closure (1–2 weeks) Iran makes a point but avoids full war. Oil shock, but contained with diplomacy.
Prolonged Conflict Naval conflict escalates with U.S. and Gulf navies. Recession risk, military intervention.
Iran Compromise Iran reopens strait under pressure or deal. Markets stabilize, diplomatic victory.
#IranIsraelConflict
#Crisis
🔻 Short-Term Market Reaction
#BTC dipped from about $105K to briefly lower levels (~ $100–101K), with volatility surging as traders fled to safe-haven assets .
#ETH was hit harder, dropping 7–8%—trading around $2,200–2,300 after the strikes .
Total crypto market cap shrank by roughly $40–240 billion depending on the source .
⚖️ Resilience & Institutional Support
Despite volatility, Bitcoin held above the symbolic $100K mark, partly supported by US spot-BTC ETF inflows continuing a 9-day streak (~ $1B in net weekly inflows) .
Historically, geopolitical shocks tend to trigger sharp but brief declines, followed by rebounds—as seen in past conflicts like 2022’s Russia‑Ukraine and 2023’s Gaza war.
📈 Technical & On‑Chain Signals
On‑chain data shows institutional accumulation: inflows to major ETFs like BlackRock’s in June amounted to roughly $412 million .
Technical indicators suggest a potential contrarian opportunity: Bitcoin’s 20‑day moving average crossing above its 50‑day MA often signals a rebound.
🌍 Broader Market Implications
Geopolitical tension boosted oil prices (likely near or over $100/barrel if Iran retaliates), increasing risk aversion in global markets .
Investors have shifted toward USD, gold, and bonds, intensifying pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies .
🧭 What This Means for Crypto Investors
Volatility remains elevated as traders monitor:
Iran’s response, especially if it affects Strait of Hormuz.
Macro factors: Fed signals, oil prices, and safe-haven sentiment.
ETF flows—continued inflows could help stabilize prices, especially for BTC.
#Crisis
🔻 Short-Term Market Reaction
#BTC dipped from about $105K to briefly lower levels (~ $100–101K), with volatility surging as traders fled to safe-haven assets .
#ETH was hit harder, dropping 7–8%—trading around $2,200–2,300 after the strikes .
Total crypto market cap shrank by roughly $40–240 billion depending on the source .
⚖️ Resilience & Institutional Support
Despite volatility, Bitcoin held above the symbolic $100K mark, partly supported by US spot-BTC ETF inflows continuing a 9-day streak (~ $1B in net weekly inflows) .
Historically, geopolitical shocks tend to trigger sharp but brief declines, followed by rebounds—as seen in past conflicts like 2022’s Russia‑Ukraine and 2023’s Gaza war.
📈 Technical & On‑Chain Signals
On‑chain data shows institutional accumulation: inflows to major ETFs like BlackRock’s in June amounted to roughly $412 million .
Technical indicators suggest a potential contrarian opportunity: Bitcoin’s 20‑day moving average crossing above its 50‑day MA often signals a rebound.
🌍 Broader Market Implications
Geopolitical tension boosted oil prices (likely near or over $100/barrel if Iran retaliates), increasing risk aversion in global markets .
Investors have shifted toward USD, gold, and bonds, intensifying pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies .
🧭 What This Means for Crypto Investors
Volatility remains elevated as traders monitor:
Iran’s response, especially if it affects Strait of Hormuz.
Macro factors: Fed signals, oil prices, and safe-haven sentiment.
ETF flows—continued inflows could help stabilize prices, especially for BTC.
Strait of Hormuz if blocked.
If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, it would have severe global consequences, especially for international trade, energy security, and geopolitical stability. Below is a breakdown of the most likely upcoming scenarios across key sectors
🔥 1. Global Oil and Gas Crisis
The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil trade and ~25% of LNG exports.
Immediate Price Spike: Crude oil prices could jump above $100–120 per barrel. Gasoline prices globally would surge.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Qatar would face export delays.
Strategic Reserves Activated: Countries like the U.S., China, and EU nations might tap into strategic petroleum reserves (SPR).
OPEC+ Uncertainty: Political and logistical chaos in OPEC might lead to fractured production policies.
🚢 2. Shipping and Trade Route Disruption
Maritime Insurance Costs Surge: Risk premiums for ships entering the Gulf will skyrocket.
Detour via Red Sea or Cape of Good Hope: Longer, costlier routes increase freight costs and delivery delays.
Impact on Asian and European Trade: Countries heavily reliant on Gulf energy (India, Japan, South Korea, EU) would face slowdowns in manufacturing and trade.
💰 3. Financial Market Volatility
Stock Market Declines: Energy, airline, and industrial sectors may fall sharply due to rising input costs.
Safe Haven Surge: Gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the U.S. Dollar may gain due to risk-off investor behavior.
Inflationary Pressure: Rising energy prices could worsen inflation globally, complicating monetary policy for central banks.
🛰️ 4. Military and Strategic Reactions
U.S. and Allied Naval Response: The U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain may ensure freedom of navigation.
Gulf States on Alert: UAE and Saudi Arabia may bolster coastal and maritime defenses.
Risk of Regional War: Escalation may draw in wider powers like the U.S., Russia, and NATO indirectly
🧊 5. Global Diplomatic Fallout
Emergency UN Security Council Sessions: Calls for de-escalation and international mediation.
China and India’s Diplomatic Engagement: Both depend heavily on Gulf oil and may push for peace to protect economic interests.
Sanctions or Blockade Retaliation: U.S./EU may impose further sanctions on Iran or push for international embargoes.
🌍 6. Impact on Specific Countries
#Pakistan Higher oil import bills, trade deficit pressure, inflation spike.
#India Major energy security risk; likely to diplomatically pressure both sides.
#China Energy and trade risks, but may act as mediator.
#EU LNG import cost rise; fallback on African/US sources.
#USA Mixed — higher fuel prices but energy exporter benefits.
🔥 1. Global Oil and Gas Crisis
The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil trade and ~25% of LNG exports.
Immediate Price Spike: Crude oil prices could jump above $100–120 per barrel. Gasoline prices globally would surge.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Qatar would face export delays.
Strategic Reserves Activated: Countries like the U.S., China, and EU nations might tap into strategic petroleum reserves (SPR).
OPEC+ Uncertainty: Political and logistical chaos in OPEC might lead to fractured production policies.
🚢 2. Shipping and Trade Route Disruption
Maritime Insurance Costs Surge: Risk premiums for ships entering the Gulf will skyrocket.
Detour via Red Sea or Cape of Good Hope: Longer, costlier routes increase freight costs and delivery delays.
Impact on Asian and European Trade: Countries heavily reliant on Gulf energy (India, Japan, South Korea, EU) would face slowdowns in manufacturing and trade.
💰 3. Financial Market Volatility
Stock Market Declines: Energy, airline, and industrial sectors may fall sharply due to rising input costs.
Safe Haven Surge: Gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the U.S. Dollar may gain due to risk-off investor behavior.
Inflationary Pressure: Rising energy prices could worsen inflation globally, complicating monetary policy for central banks.
🛰️ 4. Military and Strategic Reactions
U.S. and Allied Naval Response: The U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain may ensure freedom of navigation.
Gulf States on Alert: UAE and Saudi Arabia may bolster coastal and maritime defenses.
Risk of Regional War: Escalation may draw in wider powers like the U.S., Russia, and NATO indirectly
🧊 5. Global Diplomatic Fallout
Emergency UN Security Council Sessions: Calls for de-escalation and international mediation.
China and India’s Diplomatic Engagement: Both depend heavily on Gulf oil and may push for peace to protect economic interests.
Sanctions or Blockade Retaliation: U.S./EU may impose further sanctions on Iran or push for international embargoes.
🌍 6. Impact on Specific Countries
#Pakistan Higher oil import bills, trade deficit pressure, inflation spike.
#India Major energy security risk; likely to diplomatically pressure both sides.
#China Energy and trade risks, but may act as mediator.
#EU LNG import cost rise; fallback on African/US sources.
#USA Mixed — higher fuel prices but energy exporter benefits.
$XRP
🌍 International Disturbance Context today.
Geopolitical Tensions (e.g., Iran–Israel conflict, Security Council developments) continue to create uncertainty in global markets.
FOMC (US Federal Reserve) stance remains cautious, with interest rate cut expectations in focus.
Oil and Gold are slightly up due to safe-haven demand, while equity and risk markets (crypto included) show mixed reactions.
📉 Impact on Crypto Market Today:
1. Risk-Off Sentiment:
Traders are cautious due to geopolitical and economic instability.
Funds are shifting toward stablecoins, gold, and bonds temporarily.
2. XRP/USDT Technical Snapshot (15m chart):
Downtrend with signs of consolidation.
RSI(6) = 28 — oversold, which may attract short-term buyers.
Still trading below key EMAs, indicating caution.
MACD still bearish but flattening — shows potential for short-term reversal.
3. Volume Analysis:
Buy volume at 42%, sell at 57% — market is still leaning bearish, but sellers are weakening.
🌍 International Disturbance Context today.
Geopolitical Tensions (e.g., Iran–Israel conflict, Security Council developments) continue to create uncertainty in global markets.
FOMC (US Federal Reserve) stance remains cautious, with interest rate cut expectations in focus.
Oil and Gold are slightly up due to safe-haven demand, while equity and risk markets (crypto included) show mixed reactions.
📉 Impact on Crypto Market Today:
1. Risk-Off Sentiment:
Traders are cautious due to geopolitical and economic instability.
Funds are shifting toward stablecoins, gold, and bonds temporarily.
2. XRP/USDT Technical Snapshot (15m chart):
Downtrend with signs of consolidation.
RSI(6) = 28 — oversold, which may attract short-term buyers.
Still trading below key EMAs, indicating caution.
MACD still bearish but flattening — shows potential for short-term reversal.
3. Volume Analysis:
Buy volume at 42%, sell at 57% — market is still leaning bearish, but sellers are weakening.
#PowellRemarks
#FOMC
#SOL
The Federal Reserve maintains its current monetary policy stance, prioritizing inflation monitoring and exercising caution regarding international trade implications. Although some members, such as Governor Waller, advocate for an earlier rate reduction (July), the prevailing view within the Federal Open Market Committee remains conservative. Consequently, market participants anticipate the September 16-17 meeting as the most likely occasion for the initial interest rate decrease.
#FOMC
#SOL
The Federal Reserve maintains its current monetary policy stance, prioritizing inflation monitoring and exercising caution regarding international trade implications. Although some members, such as Governor Waller, advocate for an earlier rate reduction (July), the prevailing view within the Federal Open Market Committee remains conservative. Consequently, market participants anticipate the September 16-17 meeting as the most likely occasion for the initial interest rate decrease.
#SecurityCouncilMeeting
#IsraelIranConflict
#bearishCrypto
The Security Council meeting called by Iran, scheduled on friday, comes amid heightened tensions due to the recent Iran–Israel conflict and broader regional instability.
#Impact
🔴 1. Diplomatic Pressure on Israel
Iran may seek to condemn Israeli actions in Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria and portray them as violations of international law.
If successful, non-binding statements or draft resolutions may emerge that increase diplomatic isolation for Israel.
However, veto powers (e.g., U.S.) are likely to block any formal action against Israel.
🔵 2. Rallying Support from Allies
Iran could use the platform to:
Mobilize support from countries like Russia, China, and non-aligned members.
Frame itself as a victim and push back against Western narratives.
This may reinforce divisions within the Security Council, reducing its ability to act decisively.
🟡 3. Heightened Tensions in the Middle East
Depending on the rhetoric used:
The meeting could inflame tensions, particularly if Iran threatens retaliation or expansion of conflict.
Alternatively, Iran may use the meeting to signal restraint and seek global mediation to avoid escalation.
🟢 4. Impact on Oil & Crypto Markets
If the meeting signals de-escalation, markets may stabilize.
If it results in threats of retaliation, especially involving Gulf states or U.S. bases, expect:
Oil prices to rise due to risk premium.
Crypto markets to react — usually Bitcoin and gold spike as safe havens, while altcoins may dip on volatility.
⚖️ 5. No Concrete Outcome (Most Likely)
Due to the political deadlock and veto powers, especially from the U.S., any binding resolution is unlikely.
#IsraelIranConflict
#bearishCrypto
The Security Council meeting called by Iran, scheduled on friday, comes amid heightened tensions due to the recent Iran–Israel conflict and broader regional instability.
#Impact
🔴 1. Diplomatic Pressure on Israel
Iran may seek to condemn Israeli actions in Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria and portray them as violations of international law.
If successful, non-binding statements or draft resolutions may emerge that increase diplomatic isolation for Israel.
However, veto powers (e.g., U.S.) are likely to block any formal action against Israel.
🔵 2. Rallying Support from Allies
Iran could use the platform to:
Mobilize support from countries like Russia, China, and non-aligned members.
Frame itself as a victim and push back against Western narratives.
This may reinforce divisions within the Security Council, reducing its ability to act decisively.
🟡 3. Heightened Tensions in the Middle East
Depending on the rhetoric used:
The meeting could inflame tensions, particularly if Iran threatens retaliation or expansion of conflict.
Alternatively, Iran may use the meeting to signal restraint and seek global mediation to avoid escalation.
🟢 4. Impact on Oil & Crypto Markets
If the meeting signals de-escalation, markets may stabilize.
If it results in threats of retaliation, especially involving Gulf states or U.S. bases, expect:
Oil prices to rise due to risk premium.
Crypto markets to react — usually Bitcoin and gold spike as safe havens, while altcoins may dip on volatility.
⚖️ 5. No Concrete Outcome (Most Likely)
Due to the political deadlock and veto powers, especially from the U.S., any binding resolution is unlikely.
#globaleconomy
#IranIsraelConflict
#BTC
🌍 Global Market Highlights
Major markets in Asia-Pacific and Europe posted solid losses:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped around 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunged roughly **2%** .
In Europe, DAX slipped about 0.9%, CAC 40 lost 0.8–1.1%, and the FTSE 100 fell ~0.3–0.5% .
Gulf markets (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi) also declined on early trading jitters .
U.S. markets remain closed for Juneteenth, but futures fell ~0.4–0.9% .
#OIL prices spiked:
Brent crude surged above $75–78/barrel, the highest since January, amid supply fears .
This jump pressured travel and leisure stocks while giving energy stocks a brief lift .
Safe-haven assets were in demand:
Gold and the U.S. dollar strengthened .
#Factor
1. Escalating Israel–Iran conflict:
Reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, followed by Iranian missile strikes, fueled fears of regional escalation and potential global oil disruption .
2. Speculation of U.S. intervention:
Rumors suggesting U.S. military involvement heightened geopolitical risk perceptions .
3. Monetary policy uncertainty:
Despite Fed holding rates steady, concerns over tariff-inflation and diverging central bank actions (with Norway and Switzerland cutting rates, UK holding steady) added to market angst .
4. Elevated volatility:
Volatility indexes spiked, with Europe’s VSTOXX reaching its highest since late May .
#IranIsraelConflict
#BTC
🌍 Global Market Highlights
Major markets in Asia-Pacific and Europe posted solid losses:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped around 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunged roughly **2%** .
In Europe, DAX slipped about 0.9%, CAC 40 lost 0.8–1.1%, and the FTSE 100 fell ~0.3–0.5% .
Gulf markets (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi) also declined on early trading jitters .
U.S. markets remain closed for Juneteenth, but futures fell ~0.4–0.9% .
#OIL prices spiked:
Brent crude surged above $75–78/barrel, the highest since January, amid supply fears .
This jump pressured travel and leisure stocks while giving energy stocks a brief lift .
Safe-haven assets were in demand:
Gold and the U.S. dollar strengthened .
#Factor
1. Escalating Israel–Iran conflict:
Reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, followed by Iranian missile strikes, fueled fears of regional escalation and potential global oil disruption .
2. Speculation of U.S. intervention:
Rumors suggesting U.S. military involvement heightened geopolitical risk perceptions .
3. Monetary policy uncertainty:
Despite Fed holding rates steady, concerns over tariff-inflation and diverging central bank actions (with Norway and Switzerland cutting rates, UK holding steady) added to market angst .
4. Elevated volatility:
Volatility indexes spiked, with Europe’s VSTOXX reaching its highest since late May .
#globaleconomy
#IranIsraelConflict
#BTC
🌍 Global Market Highlights
Major markets in Asia-Pacific and Europe posted solid losses:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped around 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunged roughly **2%** .
In Europe, DAX slipped about 0.9%, CAC 40 lost 0.8–1.1%, and the FTSE 100 fell ~0.3–0.5% .
Gulf markets (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi) also declined on early trading jitters .
U.S. markets remain closed for Juneteenth, but futures fell ~0.4–0.9% .
#OIL prices spiked:
Brent crude surged above $75–78/barrel, the highest since January, amid supply fears .
This jump pressured travel and leisure stocks while giving energy stocks a brief lift .
Safe-haven assets were in demand:
Gold and the U.S. dollar strengthened .
#Factor
1. Escalating Israel–Iran conflict:
Reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, followed by Iranian missile strikes, fueled fears of regional escalation and potential global oil disruption .
2. Speculation of U.S. intervention:
Rumors suggesting U.S. military involvement heightened geopolitical risk perceptions .
3. Monetary policy uncertainty:
Despite Fed holding rates steady, concerns over tariff-inflation and diverging central bank actions (with Norway and Switzerland cutting rates, UK holding steady) added to market angst .
4. Elevated volatility:
Volatility indexes spiked, with Europe’s VSTOXX reaching its highest since late May .
#IranIsraelConflict
#BTC
🌍 Global Market Highlights
Major markets in Asia-Pacific and Europe posted solid losses:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped around 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunged roughly **2%** .
In Europe, DAX slipped about 0.9%, CAC 40 lost 0.8–1.1%, and the FTSE 100 fell ~0.3–0.5% .
Gulf markets (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi) also declined on early trading jitters .
U.S. markets remain closed for Juneteenth, but futures fell ~0.4–0.9% .
#OIL prices spiked:
Brent crude surged above $75–78/barrel, the highest since January, amid supply fears .
This jump pressured travel and leisure stocks while giving energy stocks a brief lift .
Safe-haven assets were in demand:
Gold and the U.S. dollar strengthened .
#Factor
1. Escalating Israel–Iran conflict:
Reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, followed by Iranian missile strikes, fueled fears of regional escalation and potential global oil disruption .
2. Speculation of U.S. intervention:
Rumors suggesting U.S. military involvement heightened geopolitical risk perceptions .
3. Monetary policy uncertainty:
Despite Fed holding rates steady, concerns over tariff-inflation and diverging central bank actions (with Norway and Switzerland cutting rates, UK holding steady) added to market angst .
4. Elevated volatility:
Volatility indexes spiked, with Europe’s VSTOXX reaching its highest since late May .
#IsraelIranConflict
#Cyberattack
🚨 Cyber Warfare Impacts
On June 18, hackers linked to Israel (Predatory Sparrow) stole and “burned” ~$90 million in crypto from Iran’s Nobitex exchange—seemingly as a political act .
The attack disrupted Iran’s financial infrastructure, including Bank Sepah systems, highlighting that cyberwarfare can directly affect crypto infrastructure .
NATO-led tracking notes under $50 million in tether (USDT) were taken during the attack, reflecting the scale of targeted operations .
#Cyberattack
🚨 Cyber Warfare Impacts
On June 18, hackers linked to Israel (Predatory Sparrow) stole and “burned” ~$90 million in crypto from Iran’s Nobitex exchange—seemingly as a political act .
The attack disrupted Iran’s financial infrastructure, including Bank Sepah systems, highlighting that cyberwarfare can directly affect crypto infrastructure .
NATO-led tracking notes under $50 million in tether (USDT) were taken during the attack, reflecting the scale of targeted operations .
#FOMCMeeting
📌 Key Highlights
1. Rate decision
The Fed held the federal funds target at 4.25%–4.50%, marking a third consecutive pause. This aligns with nearly 100% market expectations via CME's FedWatch tool .
2. Tone and outlook
The statement adopted a cautious, data-dependent approach—“wait‑and‑see”—remaining vigilant about ongoing inflation and labor market signals .
Geopolitical and tariff-driven risks, particularly from recent U.S. tariffs and global instability, are keeping policymakers on edge .
Economists anticipate just one 25 bps rate cut in 2025, less than previously expected—markets now expect this in September, with higher odds by December .
3. Dot plot & economic projections
The Fed’s updated dot plot will be closely watched: projections are expected to indicate only one rate cut for 2025, compared to two in March.
Expected revisions include slightly downgraded GDP growth (to ~1.2% for Q4), elevated inflation forecasts (~3%), and a modest uptick in unemployment to ~4.5% .
4. Focus: Powell's press conference
Chair Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET (~11:30 p.m. Pakistan local time).
Analysts expect he’ll emphasize uncertainty from tariffs, reiterate the Fed’s independence, and highlight the central bank’s patience .
5. Market reaction
Equities edged lower ahead of the decision (S&P 500 −0.3% on Tuesday), while bond yields softened on expectations of a slower tightening cycle .
Oil prices are also being closely watched due to their inflationary ripple effects .
✅ Summary
The Fed maintained its stance at 4.25%–4.50%, signaling a cautious pause as it assesses inflation risks tied to tariffs and global uncertainty. The dot‑plot is expected to show just one rate cut this year, likely in September, with more emphasis on inflation control than growth stimulation.
Markets will now turn to Powell’s dot‑plot updates and his press‑conference remarks for cues on the timing and scale of future easing.
📌 Key Highlights
1. Rate decision
The Fed held the federal funds target at 4.25%–4.50%, marking a third consecutive pause. This aligns with nearly 100% market expectations via CME's FedWatch tool .
2. Tone and outlook
The statement adopted a cautious, data-dependent approach—“wait‑and‑see”—remaining vigilant about ongoing inflation and labor market signals .
Geopolitical and tariff-driven risks, particularly from recent U.S. tariffs and global instability, are keeping policymakers on edge .
Economists anticipate just one 25 bps rate cut in 2025, less than previously expected—markets now expect this in September, with higher odds by December .
3. Dot plot & economic projections
The Fed’s updated dot plot will be closely watched: projections are expected to indicate only one rate cut for 2025, compared to two in March.
Expected revisions include slightly downgraded GDP growth (to ~1.2% for Q4), elevated inflation forecasts (~3%), and a modest uptick in unemployment to ~4.5% .
4. Focus: Powell's press conference
Chair Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET (~11:30 p.m. Pakistan local time).
Analysts expect he’ll emphasize uncertainty from tariffs, reiterate the Fed’s independence, and highlight the central bank’s patience .
5. Market reaction
Equities edged lower ahead of the decision (S&P 500 −0.3% on Tuesday), while bond yields softened on expectations of a slower tightening cycle .
Oil prices are also being closely watched due to their inflationary ripple effects .
✅ Summary
The Fed maintained its stance at 4.25%–4.50%, signaling a cautious pause as it assesses inflation risks tied to tariffs and global uncertainty. The dot‑plot is expected to show just one rate cut this year, likely in September, with more emphasis on inflation control than growth stimulation.
Markets will now turn to Powell’s dot‑plot updates and his press‑conference remarks for cues on the timing and scale of future easing.
#XRP
#XRPsignal
✅ Trade Setup
Entry Point (Buy): $2.25
(Current price shows consolidation after a dip, with RSI recovering slightly)
Stop Loss: $2.17
(Just below the recent low, for capital protection)
Take Profit 1 (Short-Term): $2.32
(Near resistance before the last rejection)
Take Profit 2 (Extended Target): $2.36
(Next resistance near previous top)
#XRPsignal
✅ Trade Setup
Entry Point (Buy): $2.25
(Current price shows consolidation after a dip, with RSI recovering slightly)
Stop Loss: $2.17
(Just below the recent low, for capital protection)
Take Profit 1 (Short-Term): $2.32
(Near resistance before the last rejection)
Take Profit 2 (Extended Target): $2.36
(Next resistance near previous top)
#IsraelIranConflict
📉 Broad Crypto Market Reaction
#BTC dipped ~2–5% during the peak of tensions, briefly falling below $103,000 before rebounding to around $105,000 .
#ETH dropped around 7–9%, while altcoins like Solana, XRP, BNB, and Dogecoin also saw sharp declines .
The total crypto market cap fell by roughly $140–$230 billion—equating to a 4–7% sell-off .
---
🛑 Risk-Off Behavior
Investors fled risk assets towards traditional safe havens: gold (+1%), U.S. dollar, yen, and Treasuries .
This behavior undermines the “digital gold” narrative for #BTC as it didn’t act like a crisis hedge—while gold remained strong, Bitcoin lagged .
---
⚖️ Technical & On‑Chain Insights
Post-dip, Bitcoin rebounded from the ~$102.8k zone, supported around its 50‑day moving average. Analysts note a pattern similar to October 2024—an 80% rally followed a major dip .
On‑chain data shows modest exchange inflows and stable Open Interest, signaling that holders and traders didn't panic-sell .
Macro perspective from Raoul Pal suggests Bitcoin aligns more with global liquidity trends (M2 supply) than geopolitical shocks—which might explain resilience amid the crisis.
📉 Broad Crypto Market Reaction
#BTC dipped ~2–5% during the peak of tensions, briefly falling below $103,000 before rebounding to around $105,000 .
#ETH dropped around 7–9%, while altcoins like Solana, XRP, BNB, and Dogecoin also saw sharp declines .
The total crypto market cap fell by roughly $140–$230 billion—equating to a 4–7% sell-off .
---
🛑 Risk-Off Behavior
Investors fled risk assets towards traditional safe havens: gold (+1%), U.S. dollar, yen, and Treasuries .
This behavior undermines the “digital gold” narrative for #BTC as it didn’t act like a crisis hedge—while gold remained strong, Bitcoin lagged .
---
⚖️ Technical & On‑Chain Insights
Post-dip, Bitcoin rebounded from the ~$102.8k zone, supported around its 50‑day moving average. Analysts note a pattern similar to October 2024—an 80% rally followed a major dip .
On‑chain data shows modest exchange inflows and stable Open Interest, signaling that holders and traders didn't panic-sell .
Macro perspective from Raoul Pal suggests Bitcoin aligns more with global liquidity trends (M2 supply) than geopolitical shocks—which might explain resilience amid the crisis.
#BTC
#downtrend
Shares in Bluebird Mining Ventures (LSE:BMV) fell 7% after the company announced a non-binding agreement to acquire 756 Bitcoin mining machines, raising investor concerns over its shift into digital assets.
#downtrend
Shares in Bluebird Mining Ventures (LSE:BMV) fell 7% after the company announced a non-binding agreement to acquire 756 Bitcoin mining machines, raising investor concerns over its shift into digital assets.
🎯 Key Factors to Monitor
United States inflation data and trade negotiations:
Current and future developments may significantly impact market momentum.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) and fund flows:
Sustained institutional investment is crucial for continued market growth.
Resistance levels:
#BTC proximity to all-time highs (approximately $112,000) may trigger short squeezes or price corrections.
#MarketRebound
---
• Crypto markets are surging due to institutional investment, technical advancements causing liquidations, and positive macroeconomic/regulatory factors.
• Bitcoin is near $110,000, with Ethereum and altcoins also rising.
United States inflation data and trade negotiations:
Current and future developments may significantly impact market momentum.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) and fund flows:
Sustained institutional investment is crucial for continued market growth.
Resistance levels:
#BTC proximity to all-time highs (approximately $112,000) may trigger short squeezes or price corrections.
#MarketRebound
---
• Crypto markets are surging due to institutional investment, technical advancements causing liquidations, and positive macroeconomic/regulatory factors.
• Bitcoin is near $110,000, with Ethereum and altcoins also rising.
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