陈梦瑶

Friends, the recent sideways market conditions may have made everyone feel quite tormented, but please remain calm and patient. I firmly believe that a market explosion is just around the corner. Currently, both bulls and bears are ready to pounce, like two well-fed beasts, poised to showcase their strength.

Once the price of Bitcoin rises to $98,000, the bears will face a risk of a massive loss of up to $2.1 billion. Conversely, if the price drops to around $90,000, the bulls may lose $1.7 billion in leveraged funds. However, both of these key price levels are like an impregnable fortress, difficult to breach easily, as the current forces on both sides are nearly evenly matched.

Overview of market dynamics this week:

1. Although the market hit a new low this week, it also provided opportunities for bulls. The current rebound is limited to the rebound range and is not enough to push prices to a new high. The market is still in the adjustment stage.

2. Looking back at the forecast last Monday, although the expected new low did not come as expected, it does not mean that the potential risks have dissipated. It is just that the time is not yet ripe and we still need to remain vigilant.

3. It is worth noting that the daily lifeline of BTC and ETH was unfortunately lost on the 18th, and this fact cannot be changed. Once the market trend is established, its inertia is often strong, especially the large-cycle trend, which is difficult to reverse easily.

4. From the daily level, the market trend has shown a bearish trend. Subsequently, the price pulled back to the vicinity of the weekly lifeline, gained support and began to rebound. However, when the rebound touched the resistance level of the daily lifeline, it was suppressed again, which triggered a new round of pullbacks until it touched the monthly lifeline. This series of fluctuations constitutes the main trajectory of the current K-line trend.

Currently, the price of ETH has not yet broken through the key level of 3550. Overall, the trend indeed shows a relatively weak stance. Only when the price successfully breaks through 3550 could there be an opportunity to buy on dips. At present, there is a support level in the range of 3300 to 3440 for ETH, indicating that the market may see a rebound in this area, but the strength and sustainability of the rebound remain to be observed.

At the same time, 3440 has become a resistance level for ETH, further proving the current weakness of the market. Below the resistance level, it is difficult for ETH's price to sustain an upward trend, and it is more likely to continue to correct or fluctuate.

12.30 Monday Bitcoin Aunt's Market Trend Analysis:

Since the daily level attempted to break through the middle track but failed, the market has shown signs of a pullback. Although the lowest point barely maintained around 93,000, the widening of the lower track indicates an increase in downward momentum. In this situation, an overly optimistic rebound seems unrealistic; focusing on the continuation of weak momentum is key at present.

From an overall market structure analysis, the four-hour chart has gradually shown a downward trend, with small bullish candles accompanied by large bearish candles, and all three lines exhibiting a downward opening. Although the volatility is not too large, the downward momentum is quite sufficient, seemingly brewing a significant market shift.

Currently, the market has reached the resistance level of the lower track in the short term, and a slight rebound may occur within a short cycle. However, we still need to observe in conjunction with the middle track; it is expected that the market may undergo a second downward test.

Bitcoin: 94,000-94,500 range, watch 92,000

Aunt: 3,430-3,450 range, watch 3,300-3,250

The current market trend shows signs of downward fluctuations.

The price briefly surged to a high near 95200, but then quickly fell back to 94500. This decline reached 700 points, indicating market instability. Next, we need to pay attention to several key support levels. The first is 94000, and if this level cannot hold, it may further drop to 93500. A more solid support level is at 92000.

Overview of Key Events Influencing the Cryptocurrency Market in January 2025:

1. On January 10, the market welcomed the release of employment data from December of the previous year, which played a key role in the fluctuations of market interest rate cut expectations.

2. On January 20, the inauguration of former U.S. President Trump. There is widespread expectation that he will introduce a series of new policies closely related to the cryptocurrency industry, which are seen as positive driving factors for the crypto market.

3. On January 31, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting became the focus of market attention. Notably, on the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts in January was as high as 91%, and this expectation undoubtedly had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market.

In addition, during January, several listed companies successively released their fourth-quarter financial reports. The operational conditions and performance reflected in these reports also largely influenced investor confidence and decisions, thereby indirectly impacting the trends in the cryptocurrency market.

12.29 Weekend Trading Strategy Analysis:

The market trading on weekends is relatively quiet, and the price fluctuates slightly in the range of 94,000 to 96,000, and is currently hovering around 95,000.

For today's intraday trading strategy, we adopt the strategy of buying first and then selling!

Big Pie: 95,500-96,000 range, target 94,000

Big Pie: 93,500-94,000, target 96,000

12.29 Weekend early morning analysis of the big cake operation:

The weekend market showed a rhythm of range fluctuations, and the short-term rebound seemed weak, and it remained at a low level and fluctuated repeatedly. This trend not only failed to stimulate the upward momentum of the market, but also gradually increased the short-term downward pressure.

From a technical perspective, the current market is still in the 4-hour level of the callback stage. This means that in the short term, the market may continue to face the pressure of adjustment.

Big cake: 95500-96000 range, look at 93800!

The concubine can be synchronized!

After recent fluctuations, the cryptocurrency market is currently stabilizing, with a total market capitalization maintaining around $3.3 trillion. However, trading activity has declined, with intraday trading volume decreasing by 1.66% to $124.18 billion. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains neutral, with the fear and greed index holding at 51.

Bitcoin Price Dynamics

In the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by 2.11%, with the current trading price at approximately $94,290. Despite the price decline, Bitcoin's trading volume has risen counterintuitively, increasing by 5.19% to $48.39 billion, indicating that trading activity has actually increased during this price correction.

According to a report by Farside, Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant capital outflows on Friday, totaling as much as $287 million. Among them, Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $208 million, followed closely by Ark & 21Shares with an outflow of $112 million, while Bitwise's Bitcoin ETF had an outflow of $36 million.

Performance of Altcoins

The performance of altcoins (non-mainstream cryptocurrencies) has shown a mixed trend. Ethereum stabilized at $3,335 after a slight decline, with a market capitalization reaching $401 billion. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs attracted $47.7 million in capital inflows, with Fidelity and BlackRock reporting inflows of $27 million and $20 million, respectively.

This may be the last weekend holiday of the 24 years, and the market continues to linger in a long-term sideways consolidation. However, it is precisely during such seemingly calm moments that we must remain vigilant, as declines often accompany negative news. Currently, although there have been no significant negative news or black swan events, we must remind everyone that the end of the year has quietly arrived, and it is essential to protect our financial safety.

When trading, we should always be prepared with dual strategies and must not have a gambling mentality. First, calm ourselves down and deeply reflect on the logic of our trades and our investment journey this year. For the correct practices, we should continue to adhere; for the shortcomings, we must seriously summarize our experiences and lessons. Let us step into the new year with a more stable pace, looking forward to jointly harvesting wealth in the upcoming bull market!!!

12.28 Saturday Big Cake Cao Zuo Si Road Analysis:

Judging from the four-hour level line of the technical structure, the price was obviously suppressed by the mid-track and began to fall back. The power of the bears is released physically, while the strength of the bulls to recover the upward trend appears insufficient. This downward trend is expected to take time to gradually digest. In the short term, the price dives lower, so I am not optimistic that there will be a counterattack. Future price recovery upwards are expected to follow the current weak rhythm.

Big pie: Rebound in the 95000-95500 range, look at 93000-92500, the decline can be stopped.

2024 is about to come to an end. Looking back on this year, are your investment positions and gold still complete?

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In the short term, the price of the coin quickly climbed to 97500, but failed to maintain this upward momentum. Although this pull-up broke through the short-term pressure level, it did not change the current box consolidation pattern. Therefore, in the short-term operation, we still recommend maintaining the range trading strategy, that is, in the range of 97500 to 95000, flexibly carry out high-altitude and low-long operations according to market conditions. For Ethereum, the range to pay attention to is 3450 to 3300

12.27 afternoon analysis of the big cake:

From the technical structure analysis, in the four-hour time frame, the price experienced a period of diving after being under pressure, and then entered a sideways repair stage. Although there are certain signs of stopping the decline, there is no substantial recovery. The lack of sufficient driving force in terms of trading volume is a strong proof of this. In the short term, the price shows a trend of shrinking adjustment, which greatly reduces the possibility of a strong rebound. The coordination and release of long-term volume failed to effectively push the price up, but instead continued to repair in the form of weak sideways for a long time. However, in this process, no obvious signs of the price turning strong were observed. In the afternoon, we will focus on high altitude.

Big cake 97000-96500 area empty, look at 95500-9500

12.27 Bitcoin Market Trend Analysis:

The market trend shows a weak bearish sentiment, with resistance around the 100,000 mark. The market has plummeted by several thousand points. Currently, the price is fluctuating and consolidating within the 95,000 to 96,000 range. Although there are signs of recovery, it is not strong enough and has not reached the level of a rebound. The repair trend after the decline is evident, but it seems difficult for the bulls to fully regain lost ground. The critical support level at 95,000 has been mentioned before; if it breaks, the next levels to watch are 93,000 and 90,000.

From a technical structure perspective, on the four-hour chart, the market has transitioned from three consecutive bearish candles to a bullish candle, indicating a repair phase. Without a clear trend to drive it, the market's tug-of-war has formed, showing a back-and-forth movement. In the short term, the market has experienced sideways consolidation after the decline, and the momentum of the upward trend is being hindered, making sustained recovery reasonable. However, regaining the previous high seems increasingly challenging. Therefore, on the midnight trading path, we can expect a low before moving higher.

Bitcoin: Watch the range of 95,000-95,500, look for 96,800-97,500; if it doesn't break, then move higher.
Follow the trend of Bitcoin.

The initial unemployment claims data for the week has been released: the previous value remains at 22, the market expectation is 22.4, while the actual published data is 21.9. This value is lower than the market expectation and is considered bearish; however, the impact of such news is minimal, so let's focus on the US market.

If the market successfully breaks through the key level of 97000, then 483 million short positions will face liquidation; conversely, if it falls below the support level of 95000, then 272 million long positions may be at risk of liquidation. The current market is oscillating between 96000 and 95000, and it is expected that the market may first experience a drop tonight, followed by a rise.

The price once fell below the important threshold of 95,400 and temporarily stabilized near that area. From a short-term trend perspective, the strength of the bears is clearly dominant, and the market is showing a weak pattern. Currently, attention should be focused on the performance of the key support level of 95,000. If this level is effectively broken, the subsequent downward space may further open, targeting the range of 93,000 to 90,000.

However, despite the current market atmosphere being bearish, there are no obvious signs of weakening in the daily trend. This means that in the ever-changing market environment, the bulls may still make a comeback, bringing unexpected volatility to the market. Therefore, strict risk control must be implemented in operations to cope with various possible situations.

Water can carry a boat, but it can also capsize it. In an unpredictable market, recognizing the trend is key to survival and development. It is essential to closely monitor the dynamic changes in the market, especially the continuation of bearish actions. If the support level of 95,000 is successfully defended, the market is likely to welcome a rebound, making buying a more prudent choice at that time.

The US stock market opens at 10:30 PM, unemployment claims data is released at 9:30 PM, and the monthly, quarterly, and annual options expiry and closing are all very important time points and events in the financial market. Investors need to pay special attention to the impact of these events and flexibly adjust their trading strategies to respond to potential market fluctuations.

12.26 Thursday Ethereum Market Analysis:

Yesterday, Ethereum's performance appeared slightly weak, and the overall rebound strength seems not as strong as expected. In light of this situation, it is recommended for those who have already made arrangements yesterday to flexibly adjust their entry points to better adapt to market changes.

From today’s market expectations, the price of Ethereum may experience a certain degree of pullback, with the expected pullback range likely between 3430 and 3400. Therefore, those looking to enter should closely monitor price fluctuations within this range to react promptly.

In terms of defense, it is recommended to focus on the support area near the previous day’s support level of 3350. This area has shown strong support in past market fluctuations, so if the price falls to this region, it may trigger some rebound opportunities.

As for the height of the rebound, we initially believe that the target point for the first round of rebound will be around 3600.

12.26 Pancake Aunt's Navigation Trend Analysis:

Yesterday's market experienced a whole day of fluctuations and adjustments, but the important support level below was never effectively broken. The overall trend still maintains an upward momentum. As we assessed earlier, we successfully reached our set target of 99000.

From a comprehensive market perspective, the overall structure has not changed significantly, and the upward trend remains dominant. Although there were some minor pullbacks in the short term, this did not alter the overall direction of the market. Therefore, for intraday trading, we continue to focus on low volatility as the main strategy, with high volatility as a supplement.

There is still a significant pressure area above, mainly concentrated around the 100000 round number. If the market can successfully break through this pressure level, we can further expect the market to advance towards the high of 101000. However, we should also be prepared to respond to market pullbacks, especially keeping a close eye on the two key support levels of 98000 and 97000.

Pancake: Around 97500-97000 for low volatility, target 100000

Pancake: Around 100500 for high volatility, target 98000