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#BTC has completed the liquidation of the previous high - what to do next? Bitcoin is currently at a key resistance level and has cleared the high point. Logically, it may fall again next. Trend failure condition: a clear breakthrough of the daily SMA200 moving average/US$88,700 is required.
WOO Entry Price 1: 0.06365 Entry Price 2: 0.05939 TP1: 0.06954 TP2: 0.07598 TP3: 0.08128 SL: 0.05596 Move stop loss to TP1, be sure to manage your position well
#BTC Currently still holding above the trend line and $81,200, but facing key resistance: The daily 200-day moving average (EMA200/SMA200) forms suppression Below the moving average is still a technical bear market area
Even if the short-term breaks through the moving average and tests the $90,000 liquidity pool - as I have emphasized many times - bulls still need to recover the previous range low of $91,000-94,000 to confirm the trend reversal.
Bullish Conditions: Must break and hold above 81200 At the same time, recover the downtrend line (indicated by the blue line)
Bearish Risks: If the rebound fails, it will retest the previous low Ultimately may test higher timeframe support (HTF)
Operational Strategy Break above 81.2K: Go long, target 83000-84500 False breakout: Go short, target 78000→75000 Conservatives: Wait for weekly close to confirm direction
Key Current Situation: Daily line confirms loss of weekly EMA50 moving average Price forms a double bottom above higher timeframe support
Technical Analysis: Theoretically expected to form a double bottom rebound But more likely to sweep down (classic main force harvesting pattern, as indicated by the arrows in the image)
Core Logic: Daily line closing below EMA indicates downside risk A quick sweep may instead signal a bullish market Could also continue sideways for several weeks to build a bottom
Major Events Calendar: Today: Federal Reserve meeting minutes Thursday: CPI inflation data Friday: PPI data
Oversold Rebound: After Bitcoin's daily drop of 11%, it rebounded 9% from a higher timeframe support level. The daily close stabilized at $78,000, consistent with the closing prices in mid-March and last Sunday. Although it pierced the weekly EMA50 line during the day, it ultimately closed above that line → Short-term stop-loss signal.
Bull-Bear Divide: The current price faces selling pressure at $81,200.
To confirm the bottom, the following conditions must be met: The daily close must hold within the $77,000-$78,000 range. Break through and stabilize above $81,200.
Related Markets: The S&P 500 also rebounded from a key level, but risks have not been fully alleviated.
Operational Strategy Observation Phase: The current rebound still has uncertainties, and the possibility of a second test in the HTF support area ($70,000-$73,000) has not disappeared.
Confirmation Signal: If $81,200 turns into support, consider gradually building positions.
Strict Risk Control: If it falls below $77,000, be cautious of a deep correction.
Current Situation Yesterday, two of the three major scenarios became invalid: The weekly EMA50 moving average has been declared breached Prices have not shown a divergence-style rebound
Key support is just around the corner: Higher timeframe support levels are not far away, expected to trigger a rebound Faint hope: The daily chart has not closed below the previous low of $76,700, the current decline may still form a long lower shadow and rebound
Market Environment: There are huge gaps above both the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin waiting to be filled Market sentiment is in an extreme fear zone Waiting for the reaction after the U.S. market opens
Operational Suggestions: Stay calm and avoid panic selling Watch whether the HTF support level can trigger a rebound If the daily closes below $76,700, then the downside space may further open up
$BTC Key Week Ahead: Will the US stock market continue to crash? Is Bitcoin holding the line or will it ultimately fall to the 70000 low? Thursday's CPI data and Friday's PPI data are coming in strong
The current market trend is chaotic, and the $71,000 - $74,000 range has become a key support area.
Despite this, I still tend to be bullish for the following reasons:
U.S. stocks faced their worst week since the 'COVID black swan' Bitcoin not only resisted declines but also rebounded in a textbook manner after accurately retesting the low point (marked by the circle in the image)
So if U.S. stocks stabilize and rise, how will Bitcoin perform? #鲍威尔发言 #加密市场回调
#BTC The current support level remains solid; is a rise imminent? In my opinion, the price is forming a fluctuation range between two blue lines. Yesterday, Bitcoin retraced to Monday's low (marked by the circle in the image), which makes the upward potential more noteworthy. Compared to the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin has shown significant resilience—if the stock market can stabilize quickly, it will be more favorable. Today's key focus: Release of unemployment rate data Powell's speech May refocus on expectations of monetary policy easing, shifting the market's excessive reaction to tariff issues.
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Good news: Bitcoin rebounded precisely at the 0.618 retracement level Bad news: The daily EMA200 moving average encountered a strong counterattack by short sellers 1. Bearish scenario: If EMA200 cannot break through, the "lower high point" structure of the mid-cycle downward trend will be confirmed 2. Change node: Sichuan Baoji tariff policy announced If the policy is looser than expected (the market has priced in pessimistic expectations), it may become a catalyst for global risk assets Market status: The crypto market has once again entered a high volatility warning Options market betting: BTC volatility may exceed ±5% in 4 hours after the policy is announced #美国加征关税 #BNBChain爆发
Simply put: Everyone is waiting for Trump's tariff decision tomorrow. The market has already digested the expectation of increased tariffs. But if Trump suddenly announces a postponement/cancellation of tariffs, Bitcoin could skyrocket!
Current Technical Analysis: $81,400 is the current support level (has not broken temporarily). But there might be a sudden sell-off in the next couple of days to wash out a low point (for example, down to $77,000). To really rise back, it needs to break through $91,000-$94,000.
Key Levels: To go up: first look at $91,000. To go down: $77,000 → the worst case could be $71,000.
Will $BTC form a higher low after breaking the technical pattern and the daily 200 moving average, or will it continue to explore the low range of 70000?
Market Highlights: BTC has completed the small CME gap fill; if the weekend trend remains stable, a technical rebound may occur. My personal prediction still leans towards a downward trend, initially looking at a higher low target in the 80-81K range.
Related Market Signals: The S&P 500 index has faced continuous setbacks—encountering strong resistance at the daily SMA200 and EMA200 moving averages. If the stock market continues to deteriorate, Bitcoin is likely to decline in tandem, and the adjustment may not be over.
Key Support Levels: The 71-74K range constitutes an important technical defense line.
The daily 200 moving average has confirmed a breakdown; the downward space remains to be observed.
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The current daily 200-day moving average must be maintained, otherwise the large-scale bearish pattern will be confirmed to break down. If Bitcoin loses the moving average and pattern support, it will at least drop to the low range of 80,000. This area may rebound, or further drop to the mid-to-low range of 70,000. If it really reaches that, we will analyze it again. At present, it may verify the previously predicted false breakthrough scenario-the short-term bullish flag and moving average support have not failed