Good news: Bitcoin rebounded precisely at the 0.618 retracement level
Bad news: The daily EMA200 moving average encountered a strong counterattack by short sellers
1. Bearish scenario: If EMA200 cannot break through, the "lower high point" structure of the mid-cycle downward trend will be confirmed
2. Change node:
Sichuan Baoji tariff policy announced
If the policy is looser than expected (the market has priced in pessimistic expectations), it may become a catalyst for global risk assets
Market status:
The crypto market has once again entered a high volatility warning
Options market betting: BTC volatility may exceed ±5% in 4 hours after the policy is announced
